Creepy-Phase — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

7.7%

Resolved

Trades

351

lifetime

Volume

$350

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-23 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-0

Politics

22% 50% +$0

Crypto

18% — —

Tech

10% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes		+1	$1	98¢	$1	$-0	06-01 01:28
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No		-1	$-1	96¢	$-1	$-0	07-21 09:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	01-16 07:27
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-18 03:13
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-01 01:06
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$-0	04-02 01:29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-30 01:32
Human moon landing in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 00:58
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-06 09:46
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-10 06:54
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-24 08:04
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 01:09
will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-23 01:30
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-26 02:25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-05 06:30
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-06 01:21
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-16 01:42
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-20 00:49
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-24 08:04
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-19 03:11
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-25 01:48
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-31 07:42
us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-10 01:21
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 01:09
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-03 09:42
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 01:39
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-25 00:55
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	3	$3	1	2	-1	open	—	07-21 09:30
wta sabalen rybakin 2026 03 26	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 02:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 00:49
highest temperature in nyc on march 31 2026 58 59f	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 02:47
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-27 01:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 01:31:39	Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8fdc33…
07-23 01:24:01	Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc2006a…
07-22 01:34:01	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xce9776…
07-22 01:17:55	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x43ad55…
07-21 09:30:04	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x743bcf…
07-20 01:28:43	will the next claude opus model be released by december 31 2026 20260701204710235 479 775 943	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x877cea…
07-20 01:05:19	will the next claude opus model be released by december 31 2026 20260701204710235 479 775 943	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc821a3…
07-18 01:39:12	will afghanistan recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa3d0d4…
07-18 01:20:58	will afghanistan recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe87671…
07-17 09:19:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7d8f7b…
07-17 09:04:34	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x984378…
07-16 00:59:19	will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260715005153971	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x03564c…
07-16 00:41:02	will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by july 31 2026 20260715005153971	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd57d5c…
07-15 01:18:35	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe68635…
07-15 01:08:34	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfb609e…
07-13 00:58:40	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3baac4…
07-13 00:42:10	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x727241…
07-11 07:30:23	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x09b162…
07-11 07:16:47	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b9415…
07-10 00:42:01	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb0114f…
07-10 00:29:49	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x83cd62…
07-09 09:03:56	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe3847b…
07-09 08:52:23	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2c44f7…
07-08 00:48:11	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1acbd3…
07-08 00:37:26	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x559c83…
07-07 09:41:02	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdcc365…
07-07 09:24:19	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x42d659…
07-06 00:58:22	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbfb2d9…
07-06 00:47:19	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xca33d1…
07-04 00:42:38	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x43fe08…
07-04 00:32:34	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x68bee1…
07-03 01:47:43	Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd510ae…
07-03 01:32:43	Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x682fc4…
07-02 01:26:59	will polymarket mindshare hit 70 by december 31 20260630144203054	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7d3db9…
07-02 01:24:38	laso finance fdv above 1m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2a35f3…
07-02 01:10:56	will polymarket mindshare hit 70 by december 31 20260630144203054	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4e17af…
07-02 01:01:29	laso finance fdv above 1m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x82256d…
07-01 00:52:05	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1ea700…
07-01 00:46:04	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfefd43…
06-30 07:15:46	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xaf26be…
06-30 07:15:14	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x286f53…
06-30 07:00:32	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6e8eb8…
06-30 06:54:56	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd46352…
06-29 01:01:55	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0d4f60…
06-29 01:01:31	Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x763bd4…
06-29 00:45:08	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x02134e…
06-29 00:42:41	Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa8484f…
06-27 01:15:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7d4cfb…
06-27 01:04:20	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9edbf…
06-26 09:32:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf365d0…
06-26 09:32:35	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfc855b…
06-26 09:23:19	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf6f616…
06-26 09:20:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x58a67c…
06-25 01:48:29	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7fd1c6…
06-25 00:58:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa84634…
06-24 03:09:46	will trump say border 7 times during pennsylvania events 20260619211746752	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfe7e47…
06-24 03:09:28	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x588299…
06-24 02:59:23	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x55c745…
06-24 02:49:59	will trump say border 7 times during pennsylvania events 20260619211746752	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa04116…
06-23 01:30:56	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x323e98…
06-23 01:13:29	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe7952c…
06-22 07:56:14	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf7f90e…
06-22 07:44:13	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3f95e0…
06-21 01:36:43	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x090e54…
06-21 01:19:22	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x50cf85…
06-18 01:28:59	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbad4ae…
06-18 01:28:02	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6cc323…
06-18 01:15:14	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf76d7a…
06-18 01:04:01	o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb9bd33…
06-16 01:42:42	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe7329b…
06-16 01:23:55	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3c9df4…
06-15 01:14:13	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x039d37…
06-13 01:17:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x376a95…
06-12 01:16:40	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x38d0e3…
06-12 01:16:18	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x11d560…
06-12 01:05:49	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a5239…
06-12 00:54:58	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x96e76c…
06-11 01:24:57	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1c1962…
06-11 01:10:55	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc937f3…
06-10 01:21:40	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3f02e4…
06-10 01:21:12	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x795bd0…
06-10 01:05:40	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf08fc0…
06-10 00:59:58	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6cd820…
06-09 01:19:03	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa8d65c…
06-09 01:12:31	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x80c9fa…
06-08 01:08:40	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9d7ece…
06-08 01:08:21	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x75dd30…
06-08 00:47:06	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1e8ec3…
06-08 00:45:10	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc4014b…
06-06 01:41:33	will relay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x11bc46…
06-06 01:21:04	will relay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x36f92e…
06-05 01:25:30	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2bdb4c…
06-05 01:25:07	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x190aa7…
06-05 01:06:09	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb34602…
06-05 00:59:42	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc011db…
06-04 02:52:22	Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa2ecd1…
06-04 02:48:48	Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9fb0cb…
06-02 00:36:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x397554…
06-01 02:03:09	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x58eb46…
06-01 01:40:19	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbdca29…