Natural-Vacation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.0K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

60,078

lifetime

Volume

$14.5M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$241

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 12:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

64% 30% $-12,458

Other

32% 73% $-566

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 855 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	592	$411.2K	443,537	291,319	+152,218	open	—	03-03 21:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	396	$333.8K	478,166	188,482	+289,684	open	—	06-17 18:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	777	$315.9K	333,382	255,832	+77,550	open	—	08-12 00:14
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	295	$196.9K	162,904	106,076	+56,828	open	—	04-08 22:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	115	$182.1K	159,296	83,316	+75,980	open	—	06-03 21:42
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	297	$165.7K	128,058	96,835	+31,223	open	—	02-01 07:55
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	511	$156.4K	141,543	112,604	+28,939	open	—	01-31 20:55
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	293	$139.0K	188,387	132,960	+55,427	open	—	02-28 07:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	415	$138.9K	160,864	160,639	+225	open	—	05-29 17:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	498	$130.4K	178,811	181,929	-3,119	open	—	07-26 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	497	$127.8K	150,489	156,175	-5,686	open	—	06-30 12:04
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	499	$121.9K	118,927	86,943	+31,985	open	—	08-11 23:20
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	222	$117.1K	142,166	76,666	+65,501	open	—	02-08 20:15
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	164	$113.2K	77,964	62,901	+15,063	open	—	01-29 01:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	460	$112.5K	179,108	92,269	+86,839	open	—	04-01 07:18
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	53	$111.6K	56,046	56,105	-60	open	—	01-03 10:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	127	$100.9K	64,434	44,618	+19,816	open	—	01-30 00:12
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	104	$99.7K	51,154	53,654	-2,500	open	—	01-20 15:03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	491	$98.0K	162,546	43,280	+119,266	open	—	02-28 16:14
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	401	$96.9K	112,960	74,765	+38,195	open	—	02-01 11:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	125	$94.6K	102,276	43,000	+59,276	open	—	04-09 21:53
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	273	$93.1K	186,033	46,531	+139,502	open	—	08-12 14:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	194	$92.3K	100,203	54,164	+46,039	open	—	03-01 21:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	148	$90.5K	121,169	113,169	+8,000	open	—	01-23 18:10
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	183	$88.4K	70,228	36,325	+33,903	No	+$369	04-23 19:10
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	105	$88.1K	46,344	43,503	+2,841	open	—	01-22 13:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	231	$88.0K	50,276	49,386	+890	open	—	06-02 14:13
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	338	$86.6K	141,800	37,716	+104,084	open	—	01-23 23:47
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	150	$85.1K	87,257	29,715	+57,542	open	—	07-14 04:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	188	$84.7K	87,900	65,370	+22,531	open	—	08-11 18:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 15:53:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0xc5d85e…
08-12 15:52:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	18	25¢	$4	0xbebba5…
08-12 15:49:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	150	26¢	$39	0x9f2e73…
08-12 15:48:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x625dde…
08-12 15:48:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xa22f32…
08-12 15:48:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1	70¢	$0	0xbac7ee…
08-12 15:48:13	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x9c7355…
08-12 15:47:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xcb0b5e…
08-12 15:46:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xdb7b96…
08-12 15:46:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x195428…
08-12 15:45:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x32069f…
08-12 15:44:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x8dbcd8…
08-12 15:43:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x6d05ff…
08-12 15:41:33	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	188	70¢	$131	0x0fffc0…
08-12 15:38:34	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long 20260807064756494	No	BUY	136	74¢	$101	0x477ce6…
08-12 15:27:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	500	75¢	$375	0xbeb1e2…
08-12 15:27:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0x141381…
08-12 15:17:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	308	83¢	$257	0x2a76c4…
08-12 15:13:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	314	30¢	$94	0x93ca79…
08-12 15:03:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x7f407c…
08-12 15:01:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	143	30¢	$43	0xd9dd2b…
08-12 14:52:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	90	30¢	$27	0x39b4e5…
08-12 14:44:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	600	56¢	$336	0x5101ce…
08-12 14:43:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	730	31¢	$226	0x150575…
08-12 14:42:40	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17,649	20¢	$3,530	0x371678…
08-12 14:41:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,637	19¢	$501	0xd409ec…
08-12 14:40:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x00c9c4…
08-12 14:39:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,363	19¢	$259	0xbe013d…
08-12 14:32:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	270	31¢	$84	0x8e0a49…
08-12 14:27:16	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x80fd0d…
08-12 14:24:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	SELL	500	77¢	$385	0xcc3fb4…
08-12 14:10:01	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x7b88af…
08-12 14:09:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	833	18¢	$150	0xfaa98d…
08-12 13:58:42	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	18¢	$31	0x29557e…
08-12 13:45:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	SELL	641	74¢	$474	0xabf5f5…
08-12 13:37:15	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x6acf91…
08-12 12:51:36	will leonardo bonucci attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630267	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xead8c6…
08-12 12:42:42	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x1dfbeb…
08-12 12:35:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	307	97¢	$297	0xfdeead…
08-12 12:29:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x835f0e…
08-12 12:24:43	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x1e639a…
08-12 12:21:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	5,433	95¢	$5,161	0x682f86…
08-12 12:21:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	3,944	89¢	$3,510	0x7f0538…
08-12 12:21:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	876	97¢	$849	0x761dd5…
08-12 12:20:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	SELL	70	74¢	$52	0x7254cc…
08-12 12:19:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	2,447	77¢	$1,884	0xec58c7…
08-12 11:57:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x9497b7…
08-12 11:52:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,500	34¢	$510	0x89bff3…
08-12 11:50:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x0740c4…
08-12 11:49:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	808	92¢	$744	0x49aa7f…
08-12 11:45:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xb5c258…
08-12 11:45:07	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	262	81¢	$212	0xca585d…
08-12 11:44:54	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	151	24¢	$36	0xefb276…
08-12 11:33:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	283	91¢	$258	0x707e86…
08-12 11:30:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x8d36e5…
08-12 11:30:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	28	91¢	$26	0x2edc7a…
08-12 11:26:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x436ca2…
08-12 11:23:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x4a421c…
08-12 11:23:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	28	91¢	$26	0xb1b015…
08-12 11:18:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	149	91¢	$136	0x332bc3…
08-12 11:12:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xd4ea9c…
08-12 11:08:10	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	59	49¢	$29	0xc58123…
08-12 10:52:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	500	25¢	$125	0x34a10f…
08-12 10:49:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	500	26¢	$130	0xe3da84…
08-12 10:43:51	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x49e0e6…
08-12 10:42:04	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x7b6727…
08-12 10:38:00	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xd67bce…
08-12 10:37:57	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x1a4f92…
08-12 10:36:03	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xe440ea…
08-12 10:34:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9f04b0…
08-12 10:27:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x96ac50…
08-12 10:23:10	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x12710b…
08-12 10:20:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd1d1f5…
08-12 10:07:24	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x4dc0cf…
08-12 09:33:15	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf745e3…
08-12 09:31:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	600	64¢	$384	0x2f484a…
08-12 09:24:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	400	40¢	$160	0xfc33aa…
08-12 09:11:52	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x66d750…
08-12 09:05:57	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf3d77e…
08-12 08:58:49	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	154	87¢	$134	0x698cd6…
08-12 08:58:48	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc0d025…
08-12 08:58:48	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x8e3387…
08-12 08:58:46	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x2496a4…
08-12 08:58:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0x5668a6…
08-12 08:58:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x3e0b1e…
08-12 08:58:43	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	27	87¢	$23	0xf71df7…
08-12 08:54:46	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x251389…
08-12 08:41:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30,000	18¢	$5,400	0xd79bcd…
08-12 08:37:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	3,694	94¢	$3,473	0x862f86…
08-12 08:37:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	3,694	94¢	$3,473	0x3f6ac9…
08-12 08:36:40	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x47c977…
08-12 08:34:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x79fc06…
08-12 08:30:30	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x94b2bb…
08-12 08:28:52	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	135	93¢	$125	0xea3d9a…
08-12 08:19:33	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,808	49¢	$1,866	0x46a94d…
08-12 08:12:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	1,678	78¢	$1,309	0xdd9c1a…
08-12 07:57:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0xb283a9…
08-12 07:55:00	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8e8766…
08-12 07:54:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x79a4bb…
08-12 07:44:12	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0xacd625…