Natural-Vacation 0xa8c63f…1444e8
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$13.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.96K
Hit rate
81.5%
Resolved
25
Trades
45,847
lifetime
Volume
$11.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$254
Open exposure
$112.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-02 06:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
66% 30% $-12,458
Other
30% 73% $-566
Crypto
2% — —
Tech
2% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 855 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +12,055 $10,756 90¢ $10.9K +$154 06-24 21:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -11,450 $-10,376 86¢ $-9905 +$471 06-29 02:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +9,554 $8,099 100¢ $9.5K +$1,432 06-30 12:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +8,482 $7,996 96¢ $8.2K +$184 06-30 15:32
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +8,577 $7,822 94¢ $8.0K +$219 06-05 04:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +11,132 $5,948 70¢ $7.7K +$1,789 06-26 09:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -7,745 $-7,312 97¢ $-7502 $-190 06-02 10:03
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +6,134 $5,209 84¢ $5.2K $-26 06-30 00:37
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +5,635 $4,879 88¢ $5.0K +$108 07-02 07:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +5,932 $4,489 82¢ $4.8K +$346 07-02 07:08
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No +4,292 $4,093 96¢ $4.1K +$22 06-23 09:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +14,201 $6,252 26¢ $3.8K $-2,489 07-02 06:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +4,000 $3,340 94¢ $3.7K +$400 06-11 02:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +3,500 $3,180 92¢ $3.2K +$22 06-30 21:15
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -3,448 $-2,965 92¢ $-3155 $-190 06-03 05:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +2,790 $2,851 84¢ $2.3K $-521 07-02 07:30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -2,291 $-1,675 75¢ $-1718 $-43 06-02 10:04
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,095 $1,667 28¢ $1.7K +$9 07-01 22:07
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +1,551 $1,472 97¢ $1.5K +$31 07-01 12:15
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No -1,480 $-1,376 94¢ $-1391 $-15 06-08 11:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -2,067 $-1,285 66¢ $-1374 $-90 06-11 20:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +1,334 $1,093 90¢ $1.2K +$100 06-24 03:47
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +1,224 $1,142 95¢ $1.2K +$16 06-11 21:59
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +2,500 $1,125 46¢ $1.1K +$12 06-18 19:34
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +990 $941 96¢ $946 +$5 06-30 08:18
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +1,000 $670 74¢ $740 +$70 06-24 16:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +837 $676 88¢ $732 +$55 06-02 22:13
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +865 $666 84¢ $731 +$65 05-28 02:30
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $710 72¢ $725 +$15 07-01 15:07
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No -683 $-666 98¢ $-673 $-7 06-02 22:14