Natural-Vacation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.0K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

59,997

lifetime

Volume

$14.4M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$240

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 06:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

64% 30% $-12,458

Other

31% 73% $-566

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 855 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	592	$411.2K	443,537	291,319	+152,218	open	—	03-03 21:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	396	$333.8K	478,166	188,482	+289,684	open	—	06-17 18:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	777	$315.9K	333,382	255,832	+77,550	open	—	08-12 00:14
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	295	$196.9K	162,904	106,076	+56,828	open	—	04-08 22:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	115	$182.1K	159,296	83,316	+75,980	open	—	06-03 21:42
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	297	$165.7K	128,058	96,835	+31,223	open	—	02-01 07:55
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	511	$156.4K	141,543	112,604	+28,939	open	—	01-31 20:55
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	293	$139.0K	188,387	132,960	+55,427	open	—	02-28 07:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	415	$138.9K	160,864	160,639	+225	open	—	05-29 17:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	498	$130.4K	178,811	181,929	-3,119	open	—	07-26 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	497	$127.8K	150,489	156,175	-5,686	open	—	06-30 12:04
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	499	$121.9K	118,927	86,943	+31,985	open	—	08-11 23:20
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	222	$117.1K	142,166	76,666	+65,501	open	—	02-08 20:15
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	164	$113.2K	77,964	62,901	+15,063	open	—	01-29 01:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	460	$112.5K	179,108	92,269	+86,839	open	—	04-01 07:18
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	53	$111.6K	56,046	56,105	-60	open	—	01-03 10:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	127	$100.9K	64,434	44,618	+19,816	open	—	01-30 00:12
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	104	$99.7K	51,154	53,654	-2,500	open	—	01-20 15:03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	491	$98.0K	162,546	43,280	+119,266	open	—	02-28 16:14
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	401	$96.9K	112,960	74,765	+38,195	open	—	02-01 11:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	125	$94.6K	102,276	43,000	+59,276	open	—	04-09 21:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	194	$92.3K	100,203	54,164	+46,039	open	—	03-01 21:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	148	$90.5K	121,169	113,169	+8,000	open	—	01-23 18:10
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	183	$88.4K	70,228	36,325	+33,903	No	+$369	04-23 19:10
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	265	$88.4K	186,033	22,882	+163,151	open	—	08-12 08:41
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	105	$88.1K	46,344	43,503	+2,841	open	—	01-22 13:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	231	$88.0K	50,276	49,386	+890	open	—	06-02 14:13
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	338	$86.6K	141,800	37,716	+104,084	open	—	01-23 23:47
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	150	$85.1K	87,257	29,715	+57,542	open	—	07-14 04:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	188	$84.7K	87,900	65,370	+22,531	open	—	08-11 18:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 11:57:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x9497b7…
08-12 11:52:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,500	34¢	$510	0x89bff3…
08-12 11:50:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x0740c4…
08-12 11:49:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	808	92¢	$744	0x49aa7f…
08-12 11:45:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xb5c258…
08-12 11:45:07	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	262	81¢	$212	0xca585d…
08-12 11:44:54	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	151	24¢	$36	0xefb276…
08-12 11:33:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	283	91¢	$258	0x707e86…
08-12 11:30:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x8d36e5…
08-12 11:30:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	28	91¢	$26	0x2edc7a…
08-12 11:26:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x436ca2…
08-12 11:23:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x4a421c…
08-12 11:23:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	28	91¢	$26	0xb1b015…
08-12 11:18:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	149	91¢	$136	0x332bc3…
08-12 11:12:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xd4ea9c…
08-12 11:08:10	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	59	49¢	$29	0xc58123…
08-12 10:52:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	500	25¢	$125	0x34a10f…
08-12 10:49:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	500	26¢	$130	0xe3da84…
08-12 10:43:51	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x49e0e6…
08-12 10:42:04	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x7b6727…
08-12 10:38:00	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xd67bce…
08-12 10:37:57	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x1a4f92…
08-12 10:36:03	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xe440ea…
08-12 10:34:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9f04b0…
08-12 10:27:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x96ac50…
08-12 10:23:10	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x12710b…
08-12 10:20:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd1d1f5…
08-12 10:07:24	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x4dc0cf…
08-12 09:33:15	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf745e3…
08-12 09:31:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	600	64¢	$384	0x2f484a…
08-12 09:24:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	400	40¢	$160	0xfc33aa…
08-12 09:11:52	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x66d750…
08-12 09:05:57	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf3d77e…
08-12 08:58:49	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	154	87¢	$134	0x698cd6…
08-12 08:58:48	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xc0d025…
08-12 08:58:48	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x8e3387…
08-12 08:58:46	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x2496a4…
08-12 08:58:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0x5668a6…
08-12 08:58:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x3e0b1e…
08-12 08:58:43	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	27	87¢	$23	0xf71df7…
08-12 08:54:46	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x251389…
08-12 08:41:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30,000	18¢	$5,400	0xd79bcd…
08-12 08:37:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	3,694	94¢	$3,473	0x862f86…
08-12 08:37:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	3,694	94¢	$3,473	0x3f6ac9…
08-12 08:36:40	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x47c977…
08-12 08:34:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x79fc06…
08-12 08:30:30	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x94b2bb…
08-12 08:28:52	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	135	93¢	$125	0xea3d9a…
08-12 08:19:33	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,808	49¢	$1,866	0x46a94d…
08-12 08:12:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	1,678	78¢	$1,309	0xdd9c1a…
08-12 07:57:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0xb283a9…
08-12 07:55:00	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8e8766…
08-12 07:54:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x79a4bb…
08-12 07:44:12	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0xacd625…
08-12 07:44:09	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	63	36¢	$23	0xbd124b…
08-12 07:44:09	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	114	37¢	$42	0x8bb48e…
08-12 07:41:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0x27d0ff…
08-12 07:32:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1,500	16¢	$240	0x4ad4ff…
08-12 07:26:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	19	65¢	$13	0x8c9777…
08-12 07:25:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x703e47…
08-12 07:25:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	42	65¢	$27	0x911bc6…
08-12 07:25:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xdad458…
08-12 07:25:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x26ee4e…
08-12 07:25:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	42	65¢	$27	0xcdef92…
08-12 07:25:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xbaf6ca…
08-12 07:25:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0xbf39ac…
08-12 07:10:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	669	35¢	$234	0x805be2…
08-12 07:07:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	2,585	16¢	$414	0x6ab87a…
08-12 06:48:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xfd5cbe…
08-12 06:32:12	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xa41052…
08-12 06:17:33	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x457d5c…
08-12 06:09:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	4,000	16¢	$640	0xf79d6a…
08-12 05:57:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	153	35¢	$54	0x8fd694…
08-12 05:56:39	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x112789…
08-12 05:33:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	208	35¢	$73	0xc07550…
08-12 05:06:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	208	35¢	$73	0xbd45be…
08-12 05:03:28	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	326	97¢	$316	0xfd65bb…
08-12 05:03:09	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	174	97¢	$169	0x3b2beb…
08-12 04:44:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	147	35¢	$51	0x13c23b…
08-12 04:17:46	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$10	0x18b7e1…
08-12 04:08:27	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x9ecb36…
08-12 03:35:28	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x8a98b1…
08-12 03:32:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa06f95…
08-12 03:32:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7609de…
08-12 03:32:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x406a15…
08-12 03:31:42	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x551f41…
08-12 03:29:40	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x392fe7…
08-12 03:25:46	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xbab2c2…
08-12 03:17:01	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x3e2287…
08-12 03:14:10	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x9059b0…
08-12 03:05:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xc9c3b1…
08-12 02:45:15	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	335	50¢	$167	0xeea5ad…
08-12 02:30:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xac6352…
08-12 02:30:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$379	0x902aa3…
08-12 02:02:22	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	59	36¢	$21	0x037ab2…
08-12 02:02:00	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	120	36¢	$43	0xb22e5d…
08-12 02:00:04	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	34	35¢	$12	0x4be36b…
08-12 01:59:27	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	19	35¢	$7	0x878408…
08-12 01:53:27	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by december 31	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xbcb95d…
08-12 01:48:43	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	Yes	BUY	199	41¢	$82	0xa32d7f…