Realized P&L
-$302.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.45K
Hit rate
24.7%
Resolved
28,355
Trades
319,892
lifetime
Volume
$10.8M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$34
Open exposure
$34.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 17:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 298 days
Categories
Other
58% 27% -$209,235
Politics
27% 22% -$61,492
Sports
8% 32% -$13,443
Tech
4% 19% -$11,983
Crypto
2% 22% -$4,409
Pop-Culture
1% 14% -$1,982
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 3492 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +3,256 $2,652 76¢ $2.5K -$161 10-22 11:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +2,388 $2,041 72¢ $1.7K -$334 10-24 18:57
No one announced as next James Bond? No +2,074 $1,582 78¢ $1.6K +$45 10-17 01:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +1,706 $1,398 89¢ $1.5K +$120 10-19 17:37
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +1,845 $378 80¢ $1.5K +$1,094 10-26 18:10
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +1,487 $761 97¢ $1.4K +$679 08-14 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1,489 $952 94¢ $1.4K +$455 08-24 15:21
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,611 $1,177 84¢ $1.4K +$185 07-03 18:02
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +1,415 $1,243 94¢ $1.3K +$94 10-12 23:33
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +1,221 $890 96¢ $1.2K +$285 07-02 14:34
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,190 $1,049 94¢ $1.1K +$75 10-13 04:56
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? No +1,126 $987 97¢ $1.1K +$109 10-08 13:25
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +1,116 $1,066 96¢ $1.1K +$7 10-15 23:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,152 $244 88¢ $1.0K +$775 06-29 05:59
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,143 $1,036 88¢ $1.0K -$36 09-30 13:17
tyler robinson convicted of homicide No +1,107 $919 88¢ $980 +$61 09-08 04:59
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +1,044 $884 93¢ $974 +$90 08-11 11:08
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +1,085 $846 90¢ $972 +$126 10-27 01:19
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638 No +1,003 $709 94¢ $948 +$239 09-12 12:48
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +949 $630 98¢ $930 +$300 07-06 13:05
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +1,002 $943 92¢ $921 -$22 10-18 18:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +926 $863 99¢ $921 +$58 10-22 07:50
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +933 $806 99¢ $919 +$113 09-27 17:05
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637 No +1,045 $955 86¢ $904 -$51 09-06 16:05
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,086 $894 82¢ $885 -$9 10-22 17:36
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +889 $729 98¢ $868 +$140 09-27 02:45
will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636 No +1,009 $874 86¢ $863 -$11 10-12 23:44
will mark warner vote yea on the clarity act 20260729190926661 No +895 $877 95¢ $854 -$23 10-13 04:45
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +876 $676 96¢ $841 +$165 10-25 13:12
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +959 $961 88¢ $839 -$122 10-24 11:33