Realized P&L (90d)
-$207.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.61K
Hit rate
14.6%
Resolved (90d)
14,046
Trades (90d)
142,575
325,645 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$4.00M
$10.7M lifetime
Avg / trade
$33
Open exposure
$37.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-15 08:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 316 days
Categories
Other
58% 27% -$245,276
Politics
27% 22% -$73,297
Sports
8% 31% -$14,641
Tech
4% 18% -$14,949
Crypto
2% 22% -$4,763
Pop-Culture
1% 15% -$2,282
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 3492 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +3,256 $2,652 96¢ $3.1K +$469 10-22 11:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +2,388 $2,041 91¢ $2.2K +$128 10-24 18:57
No one announced as next James Bond? No +2,074 $1,582 95¢ $2.0K +$381 10-17 01:23
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +1,843 $376 93¢ $1.7K +$1,335 11-06 10:51
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +1,706 $1,398 99¢ $1.7K +$289 10-19 17:37
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? No +1,670 $1,524 98¢ $1.6K +$112 09-08 03:06
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1,611 $1,177 94¢ $1.5K +$330 07-03 18:02
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +1,487 $761 98¢ $1.5K +$697 08-14 14:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +1,489 $952 97¢ $1.4K +$492 08-24 15:21
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +1,415 $1,243 98¢ $1.4K +$143 10-12 23:33
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +1,221 $890 98¢ $1.2K +$311 07-02 14:34
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,190 $1,049 99¢ $1.2K +$123 10-13 04:56
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? No +1,126 $987 100¢ $1.1K +$135 10-08 13:25
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%? Yes +1,175 $887 95¢ $1.1K +$225 10-11 19:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,152 $244 96¢ $1.1K +$856 06-29 05:59
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,143 $1,036 94¢ $1.1K +$44 09-30 13:17
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? No +1,107 $919 94¢ $1.0K +$121 09-08 04:59
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +1,116 $1,066 93¢ $1.0K -$26 10-15 23:07
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +1,085 $846 95¢ $1.0K +$185 10-27 01:19
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next? No +1,283 $1,148 79¢ $1.0K -$135 10-12 03:15
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,045 $955 92¢ $967 +$11 09-06 16:05
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,003 $708 94¢ $948 +$239 11-06 10:55
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +889 $729 99¢ $876 +$147 09-27 02:45
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,086 $894 80¢ $875 -$20 10-22 17:36
will a us iran deal in 2026 include surrender of iranian enriched uranium 20260623023201640 No +910 $785 96¢ $869 +$84 08-06 01:25
Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +876 $790 99¢ $868 +$77 10-24 09:20
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No +895 $877 97¢ $868 -$10 10-13 04:45
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +1,002 $943 86¢ $861 -$82 10-18 18:50
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next? No +900 $774 94¢ $847 +$74 10-06 04:36
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +959 $961 88¢ $839 -$122 10-24 11:33