Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$5,178
Trades
113
Unique wallets
30
Liquidity
$16,457
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-10 18:08
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.4¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $612
vs crowd: 1% YES on $3.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $1 | $1.9K | $1.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $2 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $42 | $108 | $67 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $0 | $45 | $44 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | $612 | $612 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | $59 | $59 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $1 | $914 | $913 |
| Below median | 6 | $11 | $134 | $123 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $212 | $212 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $297 | $297 |
| unranked | 12 | $31 | $964 | $933 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +951 | $914 | $914 | 5 | 08-10 18:08 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +884 | $29 | $29 | 10 | 08-05 09:09 |
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +655 | $635 | $635 | 1 | 07-15 21:33 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +149 | $144 | $144 | 11 | 08-09 22:11 |
| Uneven-Question 0x42f1…c759 | No | +108 | $104 | $104 | 1 | 06-10 10:53 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-15 21:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 5 | 08-07 18:10 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +72 | $68 | $68 | 12 | 08-07 18:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | +61 | $59 | $59 | 1 | 08-06 13:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | +15 | $0 | $3 | 8 | 08-10 18:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +6 | $-4 | $20 | 8 | 08-07 18:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-02 18:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-06 13:49 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 18:08:48 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 78 | 97¢ | $75 | 0x958a61… |
| 08-10 18:08:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 68 | 97¢ | $66 | 0x958a61… |
| 08-10 18:08:48 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x958a61… |
| 08-09 22:11:31 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x14acac… |
| 08-09 22:11:31 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x14acac… |
| 08-08 22:06:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x0f321d… |
| 08-08 22:06:22 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x0f321d… |
| 08-07 20:51:12 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf6e40a… |
| 08-07 20:51:12 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 25 | 97¢ | $24 | 0xf6e40a… |
| 08-07 20:51:12 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0xf6e40a… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 25 | 96¢ | $24 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 214 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 11 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 18:10:15 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 374 | 95¢ | $355 | 0x300e15… |
| 08-07 15:27:33 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc70e46… |
| 08-07 15:27:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc70e46… |
| 08-07 14:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 75 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x458564… |
| 08-07 14:44:52 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 362 | 96¢ | $349 | 0x458564… |
| 08-07 14:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x458564… |
| 08-07 14:44:52 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x458564… |
| 08-07 14:44:52 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x458564… |
| 08-06 21:18:36 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x378a9f… |
| 08-06 21:18:36 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x378a9f… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc91e62… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc91e62… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb5e516… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 61 | 96¢ | $59 | 0xb5e516… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb5e516… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 18 | 96¢ | $18 | 0xb5e516… |
| 08-06 06:15:24 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 54 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xe0910c… |
| 08-06 06:15:24 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xe0910c… |
| 08-06 06:15:24 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 24 | 96¢ | $23 | 0xe0910c… |
| 08-06 05:28:35 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcbd6fe… |
| 08-06 05:28:35 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xcbd6fe… |
| 08-06 03:34:36 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x51b1a8… |
| 08-06 03:34:36 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x51b1a8… |
| 08-06 02:26:42 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xaaba05… |
| 08-06 02:26:42 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xaaba05… |
| 08-05 18:04:06 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0a257a… |
| 08-05 18:04:06 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x0a257a… |
| 08-05 15:08:33 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2c103b… |
| 08-05 15:08:33 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x2c103b… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | Unsung-Climb 0xcf37…993f | Yes | SELL | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | SELL | 588 | 96¢ | $564 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 159 | 96¢ | $152 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 12:45:29 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 310 | 96¢ | $297 | 0x1c58ae… |
| 08-05 09:09:50 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdd2f05… |
| 08-05 09:09:50 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdd2f05… |
| 08-04 22:51:30 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x070ec4… |
| 08-04 22:51:30 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x070ec4… |
| 08-03 21:59:57 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5060fb… |
| 08-03 21:59:57 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x5060fb… |
| 08-02 22:26:14 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xcf8963… |
| 08-02 22:26:14 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xcf8963… |
| 08-02 18:06:50 | (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xd3e941… |
| 08-02 18:06:50 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xd3e941… |
| 08-01 13:04:05 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x48e7aa… |
| 08-01 13:04:05 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x48e7aa… |
| 07-31 22:12:17 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x3d2cb7… |
| 07-31 22:12:17 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3d2cb7… |
| 07-30 22:48:00 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc6d5cb… |
| 07-30 22:48:00 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xc6d5cb… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 3¢ | $15 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 655 | 97¢ | $635 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-14 16:49:01 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 300 | 4¢ | $12 | 0x5f70b2… |
| 07-14 16:49:01 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 300 | 96¢ | $288 | 0x5f70b2… |
| 07-09 20:48:35 | (anonymous) 0x17ad…1800 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3c9a85… |
| 07-09 20:48:35 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3c9a85… |
| 07-08 01:44:49 | (anonymous) 0x474a…c816 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x906feb… |
| 07-08 01:44:49 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x906feb… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 492 | 96¢ | $472 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | BUY | 588 | 96¢ | $564 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-07 16:31:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x63f755… |
| 07-07 16:31:37 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x63f755… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | No | SELL | 71 | 95¢ | $67 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 06-30 21:13:01 | (anonymous) 0x17ad…1800 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x703a32… |
| 06-30 21:13:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x703a32… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 60 | 96¢ | $57 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-23 17:42:41 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x777f98… |
| 06-23 17:42:41 | Reliable-Stepsister 0x6457…7d17 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x777f98… |
| 06-20 07:48:13 | (anonymous) 0x619d…124d | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xca7d57… |
| 06-20 07:48:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xca7d57… |
| 06-12 22:38:15 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 32 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xaee319… |
| 06-12 22:38:15 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 32 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xaee319… |
| 06-12 11:22:34 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2854f5… |
| 06-12 11:22:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x2854f5… |