Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,704
Trades
45
Unique wallets
22
Liquidity
$16,457
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-15 21:33
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.8¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $612
vs crowd: 2% YES on $1.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $1 | $852 | $851 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $2 | $815 | $813 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $30 | — | +$30 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $0 | $147 | $147 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | $612 | $612 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | $288 | $287 |
| Below median | 4 | — | $50 | $50 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $28 | $28 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 9 | $27 | $834 | $807 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +800 | $27 | $27 | 2 | 07-15 21:33 |
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +655 | $635 | $635 | 1 | 07-15 21:33 |
| Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | +588 | $564 | $564 | 1 | 07-08 01:44 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +300 | $288 | $288 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| Uneven-Question 0x42f1…c759 | No | +108 | $104 | $104 | 1 | 06-10 10:53 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-15 21:33 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-15 21:33 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +30 | $28 | $28 | 5 | 07-03 18:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 07-09 20:48 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 655 | 97¢ | $635 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 3¢ | $15 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-15 21:33:02 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x442d2b… |
| 07-14 16:49:01 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 300 | 96¢ | $288 | 0x5f70b2… |
| 07-14 16:49:01 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 300 | 4¢ | $12 | 0x5f70b2… |
| 07-09 20:48:35 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3c9a85… |
| 07-09 20:48:35 | (anonymous) 0x17ad…1800 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3c9a85… |
| 07-08 01:44:49 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x906feb… |
| 07-08 01:44:49 | (anonymous) 0x474a…c816 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x906feb… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | BUY | 588 | 96¢ | $564 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-08 01:44:47 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 492 | 96¢ | $472 | 0xd91556… |
| 07-07 16:31:37 | (anonymous) 0x4ba4…8a89 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x63f755… |
| 07-07 16:31:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x63f755… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | No | SELL | 71 | 95¢ | $67 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 07-03 18:57:07 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xf5bf6c… |
| 06-30 21:13:01 | (anonymous) 0x17ad…1800 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x703a32… |
| 06-30 21:13:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x703a32… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 60 | 96¢ | $57 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-30 07:55:23 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xbd6308… |
| 06-23 17:42:41 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x777f98… |
| 06-23 17:42:41 | Reliable-Stepsister 0x6457…7d17 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x777f98… |
| 06-20 07:48:13 | (anonymous) 0x619d…124d | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xca7d57… |
| 06-20 07:48:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xca7d57… |
| 06-12 22:38:15 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 32 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xaee319… |
| 06-12 22:38:15 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 32 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xaee319… |
| 06-12 11:22:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x2854f5… |
| 06-12 11:22:34 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2854f5… |
| 06-10 10:53:55 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 108 | 96¢ | $104 | 0x6a1462… |
| 06-10 10:53:55 | Uneven-Question 0x42f1…c759 | No | BUY | 108 | 96¢ | $104 | 0x6a1462… |
| 06-09 06:49:18 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0xb42cd7… |
| 06-09 06:49:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0xb42cd7… |
| 06-08 07:52:07 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0x616628… |
| 06-08 07:52:07 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x616628… |
| 06-05 21:24:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x65ba65… |
| 06-05 21:24:10 | (anonymous) 0x3de2…d073 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x65ba65… |
| 06-05 21:24:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x65ba65… |
| 06-03 01:43:12 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0xea93f7… |
| 06-03 01:43:12 | Peaceful-Anteater 0x6130…3b1f | No | SELL | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0xea93f7… |
| 05-28 01:41:23 | Peaceful-Anteater 0x6130…3b1f | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0xd928c2… |
| 05-28 01:41:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0xd928c2… |