Realized P&L
-$79
Unrealized P&L
-$205
Hit rate
50.6%
Resolved
726
Trades
337,732
lifetime
Volume
$435.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$612
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 00:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 43 days
Categories
Other
52% 22% +$21
Politics
19% 20% $-25
Sports
13% 24% $-95
Crypto
13% 24% +$42
Tech
2% 0% $-32
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1676 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes -72 $-46 86¢ $-62 $-16 06-12 17:51
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Yes -46 $-11 86¢ $-40 $-29 06-26 09:07
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No -50 $-12 63¢ $-31 $-19 06-16 08:23
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 -50 $-25 56¢ $-28 $-3 06-03 20:40
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes -36 $-8 70¢ $-25 $-17 06-27 12:56
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes -50 $-15 47¢ $-24 $-8 06-23 10:16
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes -75 $-17 31¢ $-23 $-6 06-30 07:31
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -25 $-8 90¢ $-22 $-14 07-07 15:58
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes -50 $-24 43¢ $-22 +$2 06-21 03:02
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes -50 $-11 38¢ $-19 $-9 06-22 21:36
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? Yes -50 $-4 38¢ $-19 $-15 07-10 01:14
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026? No -22 $-14 82¢ $-19 $-4 06-25 00:03
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Yes -25 $-9 70¢ $-17 $-8 06-20 14:18
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Yes -49 $-10 35¢ $-17 $-8 07-05 00:26
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? No -23 $-7 74¢ $-17 $-10 05-30 13:42
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Yes -25 $-3 68¢ $-17 $-14 07-10 15:14
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -25 $-8 65¢ $-16 $-9 06-21 16:35
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -124 $-8 13¢ $-16 $-8 07-16 23:45
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +25 $4 64¢ $16 +$11 06-09 10:27
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -63 $-18 25¢ $-16 +$3 07-02 01:02
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes -32 $-4 48¢ $-16 $-11 07-17 03:16
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -23 $-12 66¢ $-16 $-3 06-15 15:34
Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026? Yes -22 $-9 68¢ $-15 $-6 07-02 04:33
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes -28 $-14 54¢ $-15 $-1 06-05 14:32
Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes -25 $-10 59¢ $-15 $-5 06-24 03:33
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No -50 $-16 29¢ $-15 +$2 06-16 02:07
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -22 $-15 64¢ $-14 +$1 05-30 19:46
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? Yes -74 $-14 19¢ $-14 +$0 07-19 11:24
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes -24 $-12 58¢ $-14 $-2 07-14 20:40
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes -100 $-16 14¢ $-14 +$2 06-21 21:36