Realized P&L
-$75
Unrealized P&L
-$28
Hit rate
50.7%
Resolved
719
Trades
318,283
lifetime
Volume
$407.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$635
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 00:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 43 days
Categories
Other
52% 21% +$20
Politics
19% 20% $-25
Sports
14% 24% $-95
Crypto
13% 25% +$46
Tech
2% 0% $-32
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1669 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes -72 $-46 89¢ $-64 $-18 06-12 17:51
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes -50 $-11 68¢ $-34 $-24 06-22 21:36
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No -50 $-12 58¢ $-29 $-16 06-16 08:23
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 -50 $-25 56¢ $-28 $-3 06-03 20:40
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes -50 $-24 50¢ $-25 $-2 06-21 03:02
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No -25 $-6 100¢ $-25 $-19 06-01 13:51
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No -25 $-9 99¢ $-25 $-16 06-04 20:38
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +25 $0 99¢ $25 +$25 06-02 20:04
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No +25 $4 98¢ $24 +$20 06-16 17:49
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No -24 $-40 100¢ $-24 +$16 05-31 10:46
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No +24 $4 96¢ $24 +$20 06-18 02:23
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes -21 $-0 100¢ $-21 $-21 06-25 10:55
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +25 $7 76¢ $19 +$12 06-02 08:04
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -124 $-9 15¢ $-19 $-10 06-29 01:51
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? Yes -72 $-15 25¢ $-18 $-3 06-22 15:17
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -63 $-18 29¢ $-18 +$0 06-20 23:29
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026? No -22 $-14 78¢ $-18 $-3 06-25 00:03
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? Yes +76 $11 22¢ $17 +$6 06-29 23:28
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes -50 $-15 32¢ $-16 $-1 06-22 15:49
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes -28 $-15 56¢ $-16 $-1 06-16 13:38
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -25 $-8 62¢ $-16 $-8 06-21 16:35
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes -100 $-16 16¢ $-16 +$0 06-21 21:36
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes -41 $-14 38¢ $-15 $-1 06-24 04:06
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +25 $4 61¢ $15 +$11 06-09 10:27
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes -50 $-18 30¢ $-15 +$3 06-20 20:03
Will The Weeknd perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes +51 $3 29¢ $15 +$11 06-30 01:01
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes -28 $-14 52¢ $-15 $-1 06-05 14:32
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes -50 $-15 28¢ $-14 +$1 06-23 10:16
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes -64 $-13 22¢ $-14 $-1 06-27 08:50
Tori FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -25 $-8 53¢ $-13 $-6 06-24 12:38