Realized P&L
-$130
Unrealized P&L
+$999
Hit rate
63.8%
Resolved
191
Trades
87,270
lifetime
Volume
$2.17M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$865
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 03:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 21 days
Categories
Other
59% 38% +$90
Politics
17% 0% $-1
Sports
16% 38% $-214
Crypto
6% 0% $-4
Tech
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 1270 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes +161 $158 100¢ $161 +$4 06-06 10:58
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -638 $-508 24¢ $-153 +$355 06-27 02:37
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +186 $-84 76¢ $141 +$225 06-27 07:36
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes -130 $-82 72¢ $-94 $-12 06-07 23:57
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +299 $81 28¢ $84 +$3 06-30 03:58
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +77 $30 100¢ $77 +$47 06-21 08:41
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +300 $87 24¢ $73 $-13 06-18 07:49
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No +56 $-168 98¢ $55 +$223 06-29 11:11
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? Yes +175 $9 $10 +$1 06-30 02:37
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Yes -41 $-19 17¢ $-7 +$12 06-02 05:17
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? Yes +4 $3 97¢ $4 +$1 06-03 12:59
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes -9 $-5 23¢ $-2 +$3 05-28 05:59
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes +299 $3 $1 $-1 06-18 05:18
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes -571 $-86 $-1 +$86 06-19 14:50
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes +49 $9 $1 $-9 06-29 12:31
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +1 $-14 86¢ $0 +$14 06-04 15:26
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No +0 $-67 94¢ $0 +$68 06-25 22:13
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes -32 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-29 19:21
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes -73 $-4 $-0 +$4 06-27 09:29
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +0 $11 $0 $-11 06-26 06:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +0 $-3 15¢ $0 +$3 05-31 20:00