Realized P&L
-$130
Unrealized P&L
+$907
Hit rate
63.8%
Resolved
191
Trades
88,250
lifetime
Volume
$2.21M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$687
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 21 days
Categories
Other
59% 38% +$90
Politics
16% 0% $-1
Sports
16% 38% $-214
Crypto
6% 0% $-4
Tech
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 1062 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes +161 $158 100¢ $161 +$4 06-06 10:58
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -644 $-511 18¢ $-116 +$395 07-19 21:30
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes -130 $-82 66¢ $-85 $-3 06-07 23:57
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +82 $-164 82¢ $67 +$231 07-02 09:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +299 $54 22¢ $66 +$12 07-20 07:55
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +300 $87 21¢ $63 $-24 06-18 07:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +299 $81 20¢ $60 $-21 06-30 03:58
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +34 $19 84¢ $29 +$9 07-18 10:14
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No +24 $23 95¢ $23 +$0 07-19 12:16
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Yes -41 $-19 16¢ $-7 +$12 06-02 05:17
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes +73 $4 $6 +$1 07-07 20:46
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes -9 $-5 20¢ $-2 +$3 05-28 05:59
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? Yes -67 $-2 $-2 +$0 07-08 01:44
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No +1 $-220 95¢ $1 +$220 07-05 22:02
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No +1 $-2 78¢ $1 +$3 07-10 02:44
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No +0 $-67 95¢ $0 +$68 06-25 22:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +0 $-0 78¢ $0 +$0 07-19 23:25
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +0 $11 $0 $-11 06-26 06:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +0 $-7 16¢ $0 +$7 07-07 14:43