Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$15,974
$607 in 24h
Trades
162
Unique wallets
55
Liquidity
$6,692
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-11 00:25
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+13.1¢
(top1%: 42% YES on $215
vs crowd: 29% YES on $2.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $106 | $59 | +$47 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 12 | $317 | $780 | $463 |
| 🐟 Fish | 10 | $25 | $424 | $399 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 26 | $167 | $219 | $52 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $91 | $124 | $32 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $23 | — | +$23 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $6 | $27 | $21 |
| Median | 11 | $9 | $160 | $150 |
| Below median | 4 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $26 | $665 | $639 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| unranked | 22 | $435 | $507 | $72 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasty-Saucer 0xe60f…f4b4 | No | +744 | $655 | $655 | 2 | 06-04 21:10 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +151 | $9 | $43 | 8 | 07-01 15:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +102 | $6 | $6 | 6 | 07-05 23:20 |
| Forsaken-Meridian 0x91d7…0dfc | Yes | +65 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-06 20:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x84b7…0254 | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 2 | 07-08 02:55 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +55 | $3 | $43 | 6 | 06-24 16:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0bb…9dbf | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 06-29 06:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ed3…f05f | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 06-24 16:19 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-07 07:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 07:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x9fdb…d222 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-11 00:25 |
| Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 23:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x34bc…5c44 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-08 02:55 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 00:25:35 | (anonymous) 0x9fdb…d222 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x1eea1c… |
| 07-11 00:25:35 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x1eea1c… |
| 07-09 12:44:07 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 5¢ | $3 | 0xe8b437… |
| 07-09 12:44:07 | (anonymous) 0x641e…79b3 | No | SELL | 58 | 95¢ | $55 | 0xe8b437… |
| 07-08 02:55:22 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x66bacf… |
| 07-08 02:55:22 | (anonymous) 0x84b7…0254 | No | BUY | 18 | 94¢ | $17 | 0x66bacf… |
| 07-08 02:55:22 | (anonymous) 0x34bc…5c44 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x66bacf… |
| 07-08 02:55:22 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 24 | 94¢ | $23 | 0x66bacf… |
| 07-07 10:46:10 | Those-Frock 0x6537…0bfa | No | SELL | 176 | 94¢ | $165 | 0xc479f0… |
| 07-07 10:46:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 139 | 6¢ | $8 | 0xc479f0… |
| 07-07 10:46:10 | (anonymous) 0x84b7…0254 | No | BUY | 37 | 94¢ | $35 | 0xc479f0… |
| 07-06 09:15:05 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 450 | 6¢ | $27 | 0x5c6b72… |
| 07-06 09:15:05 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 450 | 94¢ | $423 | 0x5c6b72… |
| 07-05 23:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x02de94… |
| 07-05 23:20:01 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x02de94… |
| 07-04 23:00:04 | Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xea6a72… |
| 07-04 23:00:04 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xea6a72… |
| 07-02 12:37:28 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 575 | 5¢ | $29 | 0x0d3f5f… |
| 07-02 12:37:28 | Limited-Blame 0xdce7…f553 | Yes | SELL | 613 | 5¢ | $31 | 0x0d3f5f… |
| 07-02 12:37:28 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x0d3f5f… |
| 07-02 02:34:59 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xf42a16… |
| 07-02 02:34:59 | Sugary-Passport 0x4fa2…c7b7 | No | SELL | 0 | 93¢ | $0 | 0xf42a16… |
| 07-01 15:52:38 | Limited-Blame 0xdce7…f553 | Yes | BUY | 613 | 6¢ | $37 | 0x7f5388… |
| 07-01 15:52:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 488 | 6¢ | $29 | 0x7f5388… |
| 07-01 15:52:38 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x7f5388… |
| 07-01 15:52:38 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x7f5388… |
| 07-01 13:13:17 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x69bf67… |
| 07-01 13:13:17 | Buoyant-Vintage 0xec18…8eb4 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x69bf67… |
| 07-01 10:07:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 1,657 | 6¢ | $99 | 0xdf7413… |
| 07-01 10:07:01 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 2,000 | 94¢ | $1,880 | 0xdf7413… |
| 07-01 07:00:56 | (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xf37069… |
| 07-01 07:00:56 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xf37069… |
| 07-01 01:40:29 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x444301… |
| 07-01 01:40:29 | Violet-Negligee 0xd687…bbb3 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x444301… |
| 07-01 01:08:40 | Violet-Negligee 0xd687…bbb3 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x52c5de… |
| 07-01 01:08:40 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 48 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x52c5de… |
| 07-01 00:53:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xec3341… |
| 07-01 00:53:50 | Violet-Negligee 0xd687…bbb3 | Yes | BUY | 47 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xec3341… |
| 06-30 20:22:19 | Limited-Blame 0xdce7…f553 | Yes | SELL | 2,051 | 5¢ | $103 | 0xd60cf1… |
| 06-30 20:22:19 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 2,051 | 5¢ | $103 | 0xd60cf1… |
| 06-29 20:15:34 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xcadecb… |
| 06-29 20:15:34 | (anonymous) 0x3b53…879c | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xcadecb… |
| 06-29 07:26:26 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x63c610… |
| 06-29 07:26:26 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | No | SELL | 7 | 93¢ | $7 | 0x63c610… |
| 06-29 06:51:22 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | No | BUY | 7 | 94¢ | $7 | 0x46d2b9… |
| 06-29 06:51:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x46d2b9… |
| 06-29 06:46:14 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x51401f… |
| 06-29 06:46:14 | (anonymous) 0xf0bb…9dbf | No | BUY | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x51401f… |
| 06-29 06:46:14 | (anonymous) 0x641e…79b3 | No | BUY | 58 | 94¢ | $55 | 0x51401f… |
| 06-29 06:46:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 198 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x51401f… |
| 06-27 12:52:07 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x425c40… |
| 06-27 12:52:07 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x425c40… |
| 06-27 10:31:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xdbf090… |
| 06-27 10:31:50 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xdbf090… |
| 06-27 07:51:37 | Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | Yes | SELL | 227 | 5¢ | $11 | 0x202a33… |
| 06-27 07:51:37 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x202a33… |
| 06-27 07:51:37 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | SELL | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x202a33… |
| 06-27 07:51:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 162 | 5¢ | $8 | 0x202a33… |
| 06-27 07:51:37 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x202a33… |
| 06-25 13:02:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xc4b6de… |
| 06-25 13:02:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xc4b6de… |
| 06-25 12:55:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xd17917… |
| 06-25 12:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | SELL | 45 | 95¢ | $43 | 0xd17917… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 140 | 6¢ | $8 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 850 | 6¢ | $51 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 88 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | SELL | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x1ed3…f05f | No | BUY | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-24 16:19:16 | Limited-Blame 0xdce7…f553 | Yes | BUY | 2,051 | 6¢ | $123 | 0x488b36… |
| 06-23 10:40:01 | Brilliant-Debate 0x5175…02ea | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xad0b7a… |
| 06-23 10:40:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xad0b7a… |
| 06-21 15:22:01 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x5f9463… |
| 06-21 15:22:01 | Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | Yes | SELL | 913 | 5¢ | $46 | 0x5f9463… |
| 06-21 15:22:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 758 | 5¢ | $38 | 0x5f9463… |
| 06-21 12:46:31 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | SELL | 500 | 93¢ | $465 | 0x67b500… |
| 06-21 12:46:31 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 500 | 7¢ | $35 | 0x67b500… |
| 06-21 11:01:16 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 525 | 7¢ | $37 | 0x1a421b… |
| 06-21 11:01:16 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | SELL | 525 | 93¢ | $489 | 0x1a421b… |
| 06-19 23:34:37 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,000 | 7¢ | $70 | 0x9450d4… |
| 06-19 23:34:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 7¢ | $70 | 0x9450d4… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | SELL | 500 | 94¢ | $470 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 700 | 6¢ | $42 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:53:08 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 2,500 | 7¢ | $175 | 0xbcfbd7… |
| 06-18 11:53:08 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 2,500 | 93¢ | $2,325 | 0xbcfbd7… |
| 06-17 20:25:05 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 1,800 | 93¢ | $1,674 | 0x724c93… |
| 06-17 20:25:05 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,800 | 7¢ | $126 | 0x724c93… |
| 06-15 06:58:40 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,500 | 8¢ | $120 | 0xa8b0c3… |
| 06-15 06:58:40 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 1,500 | 92¢ | $1,380 | 0xa8b0c3… |
| 06-14 23:52:54 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd8965a… |
| 06-14 23:52:54 | Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | No | SELL | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0xd8965a… |
| 06-14 23:22:51 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 447 | 8¢ | $36 | 0xad11ae… |
| 06-14 23:22:51 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 447 | 92¢ | $411 | 0xad11ae… |
| 06-14 08:19:48 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 442 | 8¢ | $35 | 0x691b71… |