Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$22,727
$607 in 24h
Trades
281
Unique wallets
94
Liquidity
$6,692
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-03 13:32
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+74.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $205
vs crowd: 26% YES on $3.4K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $241 | $59 | +$182 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $395 | $1.3K | $881 |
| 🐟 Fish | 22 | $63 | $573 | $510 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 41 | $176 | $620 | $445 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $205 | — | +$205 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $48 | $124 | $76 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $24 | $308 | $284 |
| Median | 13 | $2 | $169 | $167 |
| Below median | 9 | $7 | $6 | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $16 | $31 | $15 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $43 | $665 | $621 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| unranked | 44 | $521 | $1.2K | $705 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | +3,556 | $114 | $114 | 2 | 07-28 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | +1,701 | $56 | $56 | 1 | 07-28 12:26 |
| Hasty-Saucer 0xe60f…f4b4 | No | +744 | $655 | $655 | 2 | 06-04 21:10 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +549 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 07-28 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | +194 | $181 | $375 | 6 | 07-31 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22e…18f2 | Yes | +160 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-28 12:26 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +151 | $9 | $43 | 8 | 07-01 15:52 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +149 | $8 | $8 | 5 | 07-29 18:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +140 | $7 | $7 | 9 | 07-31 07:47 |
| Faraway-Fort 0x9b2c…2151 | Yes | +115 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-29 09:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | +100 | $10 | $20 | 5 | 07-29 10:35 |
| Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | +94 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-31 07:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b9…90d0 | No | +72 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 07-29 09:50 |
| Forsaken-Meridian 0x91d7…0dfc | Yes | +65 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-06 20:34 |
| Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | +60 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-29 10:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x346d…aa71 | No | +57 | $55 | $55 | 2 | 07-27 20:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x5d39…4d8f | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 07-27 10:49 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +55 | $3 | $43 | 6 | 06-24 16:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | +53 | $52 | $177 | 4 | 08-01 02:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0ff…76fd | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 07-27 20:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0bb…9dbf | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 06-29 06:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ed3…f05f | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 06-24 16:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x28b8…5e00 | Yes | +48 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-28 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x6a9d…f5ab | No | +41 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 07-27 10:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x613a…2185 | No | +38 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 07-29 09:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | +34 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-31 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | +22 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-18 18:05 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-07 07:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xca91…8ec8 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-31 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x9297…358b | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3de…111a | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-27 20:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-28 12:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-28 12:26 |
| Bare-Stag 0x2fa8…4359 | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-12 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x63cc…523c | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-29 09:50 |
| Idle-Pineapple 0x5fa5…b7a7 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-27 20:15 |
| Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 23:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 13:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-28 13:17 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +1 | $0 | $18 | 13 | 08-01 20:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 13:32:18 | Sugary-Passport 0x4fa2…c7b7 | No | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x3ac936… |
| 08-03 13:32:18 | (anonymous) 0x6330…9a92 | No | BUY | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x3ac936… |
| 08-01 20:09:57 | Scientific-Font 0xf347…131a | Yes | SELL | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2395a8… |
| 08-01 20:09:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2395a8… |
| 08-01 02:22:53 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | SELL | 34 | 94¢ | $32 | 0x556085… |
| 08-01 02:22:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x556085… |
| 08-01 02:22:53 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x556085… |
| 07-31 22:09:33 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | SELL | 34 | 92¢ | $31 | 0x0d8fff… |
| 07-31 22:09:33 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | BUY | 34 | 92¢ | $31 | 0x0d8fff… |
| 07-31 22:09:32 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa8cf1f… |
| 07-31 22:09:32 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 34 | 97¢ | $33 | 0xa8cf1f… |
| 07-31 22:09:23 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 34 | 93¢ | $32 | 0x6de85b… |
| 07-31 22:09:23 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | SELL | 34 | 93¢ | $32 | 0x6de85b… |
| 07-31 16:04:18 | (anonymous) 0xca91…8ec8 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x6e36ca… |
| 07-31 16:04:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x6e36ca… |
| 07-31 07:48:06 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x695945… |
| 07-31 07:48:06 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | SELL | 105 | 97¢ | $102 | 0x695945… |
| 07-31 07:48:06 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 93 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x695945… |
| 07-31 07:47:59 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xbdb6f0… |
| 07-31 07:47:59 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 100 | 97¢ | $97 | 0xbdb6f0… |
| 07-31 07:47:59 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 88 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xbdb6f0… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | (anonymous) 0x5408…df65 | No | SELL | 55 | 97¢ | $53 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | (anonymous) 0x34bc…5c44 | No | SELL | 53 | 97¢ | $51 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | (anonymous) 0x4c9e…b1ca | No | SELL | 41 | 97¢ | $40 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 4,461 | 3¢ | $134 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:57 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 4,270 | 97¢ | $4,142 | 0xbef09a… |
| 07-31 07:47:11 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 225 | 5¢ | $12 | 0x0ad3da… |
| 07-31 07:47:11 | (anonymous) 0xc73e…1b1c | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x0ad3da… |
| 07-31 07:47:11 | Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | No | SELL | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0x0ad3da… |
| 07-31 07:47:11 | (anonymous) 0x9fdb…d222 | No | SELL | 60 | 95¢ | $57 | 0x0ad3da… |
| 07-31 07:47:11 | Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | BUY | 94 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x0ad3da… |
| 07-30 22:45:48 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xab9f17… |
| 07-30 22:45:48 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xab9f17… |
| 07-30 22:45:48 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | SELL | 45 | 95¢ | $42 | 0xab9f17… |
| 07-30 14:11:45 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xcc4e0f… |
| 07-30 14:11:45 | (anonymous) 0xc73e…1b1c | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xcc4e0f… |
| 07-30 06:42:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x029257… |
| 07-30 06:42:39 | Scientific-Font 0xf347…131a | Yes | BUY | 4 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x029257… |
| 07-30 06:42:39 | (anonymous) 0x1b4c…d6a2 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x029257… |
| 07-29 18:33:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf6a72d… |
| 07-29 18:33:27 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf6a72d… |
| 07-29 10:35:36 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x29631d… |
| 07-29 10:35:36 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | BUY | 28 | 94¢ | $26 | 0x29631d… |
| 07-29 10:35:36 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 0 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x29631d… |
| 07-29 10:35:33 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xfd9a29… |
| 07-29 10:35:33 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 63 | 94¢ | $59 | 0xfd9a29… |
| 07-29 10:35:33 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xfd9a29… |
| 07-29 10:35:30 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 72 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x44c786… |
| 07-29 10:35:30 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | BUY | 72 | 94¢ | $68 | 0x44c786… |
| 07-29 10:33:29 | Gleeful-Box 0xabfb…12e5 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x18de04… |
| 07-29 10:33:29 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 39 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x18de04… |
| 07-29 10:33:29 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 63 | 94¢ | $59 | 0x18de04… |
| 07-29 10:24:48 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x0863b7… |
| 07-29 10:24:48 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x0863b7… |
| 07-29 10:24:48 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | BUY | 60 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x0863b7… |
| 07-29 09:50:11 | Faraway-Fort 0x9b2c…2151 | Yes | BUY | 115 | 9¢ | $10 | 0x9aa2c2… |
| 07-29 09:50:11 | (anonymous) 0x63cc…523c | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x9aa2c2… |
| 07-29 09:50:11 | (anonymous) 0x27b9…90d0 | No | BUY | 72 | 91¢ | $66 | 0x9aa2c2… |
| 07-29 09:50:11 | (anonymous) 0x613a…2185 | No | BUY | 38 | 91¢ | $35 | 0x9aa2c2… |
| 07-28 13:17:13 | (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xa5a2c0… |
| 07-28 13:17:13 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xa5a2c0… |
| 07-28 12:26:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x80468f… |
| 07-28 12:26:55 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,901 | 3¢ | $63 | 0x80468f… |
| 07-28 12:26:55 | (anonymous) 0xf22e…18f2 | Yes | BUY | 160 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x80468f… |
| 07-28 12:26:55 | (anonymous) 0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | BUY | 1,701 | 3¢ | $56 | 0x80468f… |
| 07-28 12:26:55 | (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x80468f… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | (anonymous) 0x9297…358b | Yes | BUY | 11 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd0a34b… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 3,509 | 3¢ | $112 | 0x9356d4… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | Awful-Tangerine 0x1bb7…543b | Yes | SELL | 8 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x76cd45… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 3,872 | 3¢ | $124 | 0x9356d4… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0xd0a34b… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | Awful-Tangerine 0x1bb7…543b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 24¢ | $0 | 0xd0a34b… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | (anonymous) 0x28b8…5e00 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x76cd45… |
| 07-28 12:26:28 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 363 | 3¢ | $12 | 0x9356d4… |
| 07-27 20:15:21 | Idle-Pineapple 0x5fa5…b7a7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xd2848b… |
| 07-27 20:15:21 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xd2848b… |
| 07-27 20:04:34 | (anonymous) 0xd0ff…76fd | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xac74bf… |
| 07-27 20:04:34 | (anonymous) 0xa3de…111a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xac74bf… |
| 07-27 20:04:34 | (anonymous) 0x28b8…5e00 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x4b31d8… |
| 07-27 20:04:34 | (anonymous) 0xd0ff…76fd | No | BUY | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0x4b31d8… |
| 07-27 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x346d…aa71 | No | BUY | 48 | 97¢ | $46 | 0x4c7098… |
| 07-27 20:04:33 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x4c7098… |
| 07-27 19:57:34 | (anonymous) 0x346d…aa71 | No | BUY | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x69cae8… |
| 07-27 19:57:34 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x69cae8… |
| 07-27 19:57:34 | (anonymous) 0x5408…df65 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x69cae8… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x34bc…5c44 | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x4c9e…b1ca | No | BUY | 41 | 97¢ | $40 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 225 | 97¢ | $218 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x5d39…4d8f | No | BUY | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x6a9d…f5ab | No | BUY | 41 | 97¢ | $40 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-27 10:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x5408…df65 | No | BUY | 54 | 97¢ | $53 | 0x834e55… |
| 07-25 13:08:12 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x198097… |
| 07-25 13:08:12 | Everlasting-Institute 0x74d4…8fcd | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $40 | 0x198097… |
| 07-25 13:08:12 | (anonymous) 0x5d39…4d8f | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x198097… |
| 07-22 08:26:52 | Automatic-Riding 0xa575…f2d0 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xa5e59d… |
| 07-22 08:26:52 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa5e59d… |
| 07-21 05:44:48 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 178 | 3¢ | $6 | 0xeee16d… |
| 07-21 05:44:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 178 | 3¢ | $6 | 0xeee16d… |