Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$11,212
$607 in 24h
Trades
82
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$6,692
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-19 23:34
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+26.4¢
(top1%: 42% YES on $215
vs crowd: 16% YES on $1.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $99 | $49 | +$50 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $50 | $780 | $730 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $89 | $414 | $325 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 11 | — | $1 | $1 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $91 | $124 | $32 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $23 | — | +$23 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $6 | $27 | $21 |
| Median | 4 | $9 | $1 | +$8 |
| Below median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $21 | $655 | $635 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| unranked | 15 | $70 | $438 | $368 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | Yes | +1,140 | $91 | $91 | 1 | 06-08 12:14 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | +1,000 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 06-19 23:34 |
| Hasty-Saucer 0xe60f…f4b4 | No | +744 | $655 | $655 | 2 | 06-04 21:10 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +194 | $12 | $34 | 5 | 06-19 20:12 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +151 | $10 | $32 | 6 | 06-18 11:54 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-19 20:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | +90 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-06 22:19 |
| Forsaken-Meridian 0x91d7…0dfc | Yes | +65 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-06 20:34 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +42 | $3 | $8 | 4 | 06-07 22:00 |
| Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | +24 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 06-12 16:24 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-07 07:01 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +1 | $0 | $53 | 5 | 06-07 22:00 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 23:34:37 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,000 | 7¢ | $70 | 0x9450d4… |
| 06-19 23:34:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 7¢ | $70 | 0x9450d4… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | SELL | 500 | 94¢ | $470 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 700 | 6¢ | $42 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-19 20:12:28 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x13ddf6… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:54:32 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc49aa7… |
| 06-18 11:53:08 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 2,500 | 93¢ | $2,325 | 0xbcfbd7… |
| 06-18 11:53:08 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 2,500 | 7¢ | $175 | 0xbcfbd7… |
| 06-17 20:25:05 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 1,800 | 93¢ | $1,674 | 0x724c93… |
| 06-17 20:25:05 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,800 | 7¢ | $126 | 0x724c93… |
| 06-15 06:58:40 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,500 | 8¢ | $120 | 0xa8b0c3… |
| 06-15 06:58:40 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 1,500 | 92¢ | $1,380 | 0xa8b0c3… |
| 06-14 23:52:54 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd8965a… |
| 06-14 23:52:54 | Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | No | SELL | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0xd8965a… |
| 06-14 23:22:51 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 447 | 92¢ | $411 | 0xad11ae… |
| 06-14 23:22:51 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 447 | 8¢ | $36 | 0xad11ae… |
| 06-14 08:19:48 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 442 | 8¢ | $35 | 0x691b71… |
| 06-14 08:19:48 | Tight-Snow 0xa127…1e08 | No | SELL | 442 | 92¢ | $407 | 0x691b71… |
| 06-13 11:59:22 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd0af26… |
| 06-13 11:59:22 | (anonymous) 0xd4c9…8b2f | No | SELL | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xd0af26… |
| 06-12 16:24:40 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xdc38e8… |
| 06-12 16:24:40 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | BUY | 24 | 94¢ | $23 | 0xdc38e8… |
| 06-12 16:24:40 | (anonymous) 0xc480…8dd3 | No | SELL | 19 | 94¢ | $18 | 0xdc38e8… |
| 06-10 12:35:30 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 394 | 94¢ | $371 | 0x66f13e… |
| 06-10 12:35:30 | Limited-Blame 0xdce7…f553 | Yes | SELL | 394 | 6¢ | $24 | 0x66f13e… |
| 06-10 11:03:10 | (anonymous) 0xdec6…c1c5 | No | SELL | 183 | 92¢ | $168 | 0xcd66db… |
| 06-10 11:03:10 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 183 | 8¢ | $15 | 0xcd66db… |
| 06-10 02:07:52 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x192457… |
| 06-10 02:07:52 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x192457… |
| 06-09 09:34:39 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xd990d9… |
| 06-09 09:34:39 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xd990d9… |
| 06-09 06:03:16 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x5b2358… |
| 06-09 06:03:16 | Wrathful-Row 0x56c9…0d9e | No | SELL | 0 | 92¢ | $0 | 0x5b2358… |
| 06-09 06:02:54 | Wrathful-Row 0x56c9…0d9e | No | SELL | 319 | 92¢ | $294 | 0x54c8ec… |
| 06-09 06:02:54 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x54c8ec… |
| 06-09 06:02:54 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 309 | 8¢ | $25 | 0x54c8ec… |
| 06-08 12:14:42 | Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | Yes | BUY | 1,140 | 8¢ | $91 | 0x22346c… |
| 06-08 12:14:42 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 1,140 | 8¢ | $91 | 0x22346c… |
| 06-08 12:10:18 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xbfab52… |
| 06-08 12:10:18 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xbfab52… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Disgusting-Shade 0xabaa…a174 | Yes | SELL | 266 | 7¢ | $19 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 22 | 92¢ | $21 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 33 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 22:00:30 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x17bb60… |
| 06-07 09:17:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 12¢ | $0 | 0x1b9b11… |
| 06-07 09:17:24 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 88¢ | $1 | 0x1b9b11… |
| 06-07 09:16:43 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x2f4837… |
| 06-07 09:16:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x2f4837… |
| 06-07 07:01:48 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x06d952… |
| 06-07 07:01:48 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x06d952… |
| 06-07 01:49:30 | Defiant-Vision 0x5c30…9c2c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x860f1f… |
| 06-07 01:49:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x860f1f… |
| 06-06 22:19:25 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xd34164… |
| 06-06 22:19:25 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xd34164… |
| 06-06 22:19:01 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xe7f782… |
| 06-06 22:19:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 10¢ | $3 | 0xe7f782… |
| 06-06 22:19:01 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 10¢ | $8 | 0xe7f782… |
| 06-06 20:34:19 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 65 | 10¢ | $6 | 0x7d21d4… |
| 06-06 20:34:19 | Forsaken-Meridian 0x91d7…0dfc | Yes | BUY | 65 | 10¢ | $6 | 0x7d21d4… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 100 | 11¢ | $11 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 11¢ | $11 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Awful-Tangerine 0x1bb7…543b | Yes | SELL | 50 | 14¢ | $7 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 11 | 90¢ | $10 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 147 | 84¢ | $124 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | (anonymous) 0xbf8c…18fd | No | SELL | 1,142 | 88¢ | $1,000 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-04 21:10:46 | Hasty-Saucer 0xe60f…f4b4 | No | BUY | 671 | 88¢ | $590 | 0x9270f2… |
| 06-02 21:42:45 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 19 | 89¢ | $17 | 0x7d2768… |
| 06-02 21:42:45 | Speedy-Bartender 0x4bf4…7021 | No | SELL | 19 | 89¢ | $17 | 0x7d2768… |
| 06-02 11:39:11 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x761a77… |
| 06-02 11:39:11 | Tight-Snow 0xa127…1e08 | No | BUY | 442 | 90¢ | $400 | 0x761a77… |
| 06-02 11:39:11 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x761a77… |
| 06-02 11:39:11 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 228 | 91¢ | $208 | 0x761a77… |
| 06-02 11:39:11 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 14 | 89¢ | $12 | 0x761a77… |
| 05-31 07:02:46 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | BUY | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x0dc451… |
| 05-31 07:02:46 | Scared-Afterthought 0x2d6b…cf5e | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x0dc451… |
| 05-27 21:18:11 | Scarce-Nexus 0x9e7e…3e1d | No | SELL | 74 | 88¢ | $65 | 0x1eff24… |
| 05-27 21:18:11 | Hasty-Saucer 0xe60f…f4b4 | No | BUY | 74 | 88¢ | $65 | 0x1eff24… |