(anonymous) 0x6553cf…e335e2
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Realized P&L
+$147
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
61.9%
Resolved
70
Trades
813
lifetime
Volume
$737
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$100
24 positions
First seen
2026-02-01
last 10-25 03:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 38 days
Categories
Politics
60% 40% +$148
Other
37% 27% +$6
Crypto
2% 43% -$5
Sports
1% 0% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +161 $19 18¢ $30 +$11 10-25 03:02
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +642 $43 4¢ $22 -$20 10-14 20:22
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Yes +880 $13 1¢ $11 -$2 10-09 19:46
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes +91 $9 8¢ $7 -$2 10-24 22:36
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +140 $8 4¢ $6 -$2 10-22 00:30
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2,900 $4 0¢ $4 +$0 09-25 21:56
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2,600 $2 0¢ $4 +$2 09-07 08:43
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +975 -$2 0¢ $2 +$4 10-11 18:01
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +30 $3 8¢ $2 $0 08-24 08:29
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes -19 -$17 7¢ $-1 +$16 08-23 13:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +20 $3 6¢ $1 -$2 09-29 11:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +20 $4 6¢ $1 -$3 10-24 06:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +45 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 07-27 06:54
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes +35 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 10-24 06:38
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes +35 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 09-12 18:54
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +14 $1 5¢ $1 $0 06-15 03:11
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -29 -$2 2¢ $-1 +$1 06-17 10:00
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +95 $0 1¢ $1 +$0 10-15 01:02
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +5 $1 10¢ $0 -$1 10-20 12:13
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +13 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 05-26 10:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes +10 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 05-14 22:42
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +5 $0 8¢ $0 +$0 10-12 13:00
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? Yes +10 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 09-27 17:21
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy) Yes +5 $0 4¢ $0 $0 09-25 21:46