Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$8,215
Trades
303
Unique wallets
79
Liquidity
$3,898
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-26 18:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $6 | $349 | $343 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 23 | $190 | $1.7K | $1.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 15 | $19 | $449 | $429 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 33 | $12 | $870 | $859 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $5 | $67 | $62 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $14 | $371 | $358 |
| Median | 5 | $1 | $87 | $86 |
| Below median | 16 | $26 | $794 | $768 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $8 | $120 | $112 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | $27 | $540 | $512 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $3 | $317 | $314 |
| unranked | 33 | $143 | $1.1K | $965 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | +300 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | No | +300 | $286 | $286 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +130 | $6 | $6 | 8 | 07-09 08:19 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +105 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-08 02:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd9b…d2a1 | No | +104 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 5 | 07-07 07:21 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | +92 | $86 | $657 | 16 | 07-26 18:54 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +87 | $83 | $83 | 5 | 07-22 07:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0f3…f4fa | No | +57 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 07-08 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xdef3…f121 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-08 02:55 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +50 | $2 | $5 | 3 | 07-07 07:22 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | +50 | $48 | $105 | 3 | 07-08 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x2976…db80 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 07-07 12:54 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +34 | $1 | $4 | 4 | 07-08 02:57 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +34 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 07-05 07:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xd3a8…8c0d | No | +22 | $21 | $59 | 3 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x46c9…c26c | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-09 08:19 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +7 | $0 | $6 | 6 | 07-08 06:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 23:00 |
| Confused-Cough 0x932d…6490 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-25 19:19 |
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $1 | 3 | 06-12 09:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +3 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 07-12 03:29 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $6 | 7 | 06-30 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xfbad…d55b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-26 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x21c3…5654 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0xfbad…d55b | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7d7a83… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7d7a83… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | Confused-Cough 0x932d…6490 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x112a0d… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x112a0d… |
| 07-23 18:47:36 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xd96f01… |
| 07-23 18:47:36 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xd96f01… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | Bruised-Venison 0xfc83…e1aa | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | SELL | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-13 08:28:14 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xae65e5… |
| 07-13 08:28:14 | (anonymous) 0xfdc4…3bd2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xae65e5… |
| 07-13 02:04:41 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x8c3605… |
| 07-13 02:04:41 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x8c3605… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0x7c3981… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 48 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x7c3981… |
| 07-12 02:56:35 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0x022106… |
| 07-12 02:56:35 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0x022106… |
| 07-12 02:56:29 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x9622bc… |
| 07-12 02:56:29 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x9622bc… |
| 07-12 02:56:29 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0x9622bc… |
| 07-11 23:46:53 | (anonymous) 0x0762…8e99 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x683dcb… |
| 07-11 23:46:53 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x683dcb… |
| 07-11 23:46:11 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x0bdcef… |
| 07-11 23:46:11 | (anonymous) 0x0762…8e99 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x0bdcef… |
| 07-11 23:45:58 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x01c6a1… |
| 07-11 23:45:58 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x01c6a1… |
| 07-10 21:10:34 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 141 | 96¢ | $136 | 0x12a11d… |
| 07-10 21:10:34 | Deadheadbucky 0x68d9…00ed | Yes | SELL | 141 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x12a11d… |
| 07-10 08:40:02 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 79 | 96¢ | $76 | 0x0061e9… |
| 07-10 08:40:02 | (anonymous) 0xc6d7…4399 | Yes | SELL | 79 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x0061e9… |
| 07-09 11:09:35 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x052ff2… |
| 07-09 11:09:35 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x052ff2… |
| 07-09 08:19:52 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x9d96fc… |
| 07-09 08:19:52 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9d96fc… |
| 07-09 08:19:52 | (anonymous) 0x46c9…c26c | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x9d96fc… |
| 07-09 00:17:23 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x452b08… |
| 07-09 00:17:23 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x452b08… |
| 07-08 06:58:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5c55c4… |
| 07-08 06:58:26 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 27 | 96¢ | $26 | 0x5c55c4… |
| 07-08 06:47:53 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xaf4b87… |
| 07-08 06:47:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xaf4b87… |
| 07-08 06:42:13 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 57 | 96¢ | $55 | 0x3ac4a1… |
| 07-08 06:42:13 | (anonymous) 0xb0f3…f4fa | No | BUY | 57 | 96¢ | $55 | 0x3ac4a1… |
| 07-08 06:13:56 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2537de… |
| 07-08 06:13:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 13 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2537de… |
| 07-08 06:13:53 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1296db… |
| 07-08 06:13:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1296db… |
| 07-08 06:00:49 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x82157f… |
| 07-08 06:00:49 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x82157f… |
| 07-08 05:54:25 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 36 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xd4e2b4… |
| 07-08 05:54:25 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 36 | 95¢ | $34 | 0xd4e2b4… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | BUY | 35 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xd66aa5… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 180 | 95¢ | $170 | 0xd66aa5… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 51 | 5¢ | $3 | 0xd66aa5… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xd66aa5… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 24 | 95¢ | $23 | 0xd66aa5… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0x96c63b… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x96c63b… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x96c63b… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x96c63b… |
| 07-08 03:40:17 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x569d1a… |
| 07-08 03:40:17 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0x569d1a… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 79 | 6¢ | $5 | 0xb11dfa… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb11dfa… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb11dfa… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 34 | 93¢ | $32 | 0xb11dfa… |
| 07-08 02:56:07 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0xade920… |
| 07-08 02:56:07 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0xade920… |
| 07-08 02:56:05 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x1d51fa… |
| 07-08 02:56:05 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x1d51fa… |
| 07-08 02:56:05 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x1d51fa… |
| 07-08 02:55:34 | (anonymous) 0xdef3…f121 | No | BUY | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x2e1fe1… |
| 07-08 02:55:34 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x2e1fe1… |
| 07-08 02:55:34 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 428 | 96¢ | $410 | 0x2e1fe1… |
| 07-08 02:55:34 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 326 | 4¢ | $14 | 0x2e1fe1… |
| 07-08 02:55:34 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2e1fe1… |
| 07-08 02:51:10 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x0d724b… |
| 07-08 02:51:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x0d724b… |
| 07-08 02:51:10 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x0d724b… |
| 07-07 12:54:34 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0x31b8b9… |
| 07-07 12:54:34 | (anonymous) 0x2976…db80 | No | BUY | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0x31b8b9… |
| 07-07 07:22:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbc8760… |
| 07-07 07:22:14 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbc8760… |
| 07-07 07:21:35 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x640db8… |
| 07-07 07:21:35 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x640db8… |
| 07-07 07:21:35 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x640db8… |
| 07-07 07:21:34 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbf726a… |
| 07-07 07:21:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbf726a… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 145 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | SELL | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-07 07:21:29 | (anonymous) 0xdb33…9d2f | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xbacb33… |
| 07-06 23:28:49 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb38a6e… |
| 07-06 23:28:49 | (anonymous) 0xdb33…9d2f | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xb38a6e… |
| 07-06 23:17:11 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x41de03… |