Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$6,103
Trades
202
Unique wallets
62
Liquidity
$3,898
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-05 19:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $2 | $283 | $281 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 18 | $156 | $935 | $779 |
| 🐟 Fish | 15 | $33 | $799 | $766 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 24 | $9 | $701 | $692 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $5 | $48 | $43 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Median | 3 | $1 | $45 | $44 |
| Below median | 12 | $5 | $187 | $183 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | — | $120 | $120 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $27 | $514 | $487 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $2 | $251 | $249 |
| unranked | 27 | $156 | $1.6K | $1.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | +300 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | No | +300 | $286 | $286 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +114 | $5 | $5 | 5 | 07-05 19:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd9b…d2a1 | No | +104 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +80 | $4 | $4 | 4 | 07-04 08:18 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +60 | $57 | $57 | 3 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +50 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-04 08:18 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-04 08:18 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +50 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 07-04 08:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb33…9d2f | No | +43 | $41 | $56 | 2 | 07-05 19:01 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +34 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 07-05 07:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +23 | $1 | $2 | 2 | 07-05 07:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xd3a8…8c0d | No | +22 | $21 | $59 | 3 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-04 08:18 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdc4…3bd2 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 08:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 23:00 |
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $1 | 3 | 06-12 09:34 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $6 | 7 | 06-30 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x21c3…5654 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 19:01:41 | (anonymous) 0x6b97…f776 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x84cf3d… |
| 07-05 19:01:41 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x84cf3d… |
| 07-05 19:01:41 | (anonymous) 0xdb33…9d2f | No | SELL | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x84cf3d… |
| 07-05 07:46:50 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x935a21… |
| 07-05 07:46:50 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x935a21… |
| 07-05 07:46:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x935a21… |
| 07-04 23:00:25 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x29af71… |
| 07-04 23:00:25 | (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x29af71… |
| 07-04 08:18:56 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcf0801… |
| 07-04 08:18:56 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcf0801… |
| 07-04 08:18:55 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x7a143a… |
| 07-04 08:18:55 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x7a143a… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb1e794… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xb1e794… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb1e794… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | SELL | 145 | 95¢ | $138 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | BUY | 50 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 263 | 5¢ | $12 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-04 08:18:50 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcb97d2… |
| 07-03 18:00:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x01395d… |
| 07-03 18:00:32 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x01395d… |
| 07-03 15:00:46 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x26ab82… |
| 07-03 15:00:46 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x26ab82… |
| 07-02 17:05:40 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xb22ea9… |
| 07-02 17:05:40 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xb22ea9… |
| 07-02 09:42:43 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 88 | 95¢ | $84 | 0x4386fa… |
| 07-02 09:42:43 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 88 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x4386fa… |
| 07-02 08:37:49 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0x96e86c… |
| 07-02 08:37:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x96e86c… |
| 07-02 08:36:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 169 | 5¢ | $8 | 0x77a0af… |
| 07-02 08:36:38 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 169 | 95¢ | $161 | 0x77a0af… |
| 07-02 08:36:25 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x763369… |
| 07-02 08:36:25 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x763369… |
| 07-02 08:36:08 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8d8c9b… |
| 07-02 08:36:08 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8d8c9b… |
| 07-02 08:36:07 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 322 | 95¢ | $307 | 0x39b760… |
| 07-02 08:36:07 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 322 | 5¢ | $16 | 0x39b760… |
| 07-02 08:36:05 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 88 | 95¢ | $84 | 0xff12fe… |
| 07-02 08:36:05 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 88 | 95¢ | $84 | 0xff12fe… |
| 07-02 08:36:04 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x7bba79… |
| 07-02 08:36:04 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x7bba79… |
| 07-02 08:36:02 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 125 | 95¢ | $119 | 0x8c8a9e… |
| 07-02 08:36:02 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | No | SELL | 125 | 95¢ | $119 | 0x8c8a9e… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 600 | 96¢ | $574 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | No | BUY | 125 | 96¢ | $120 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 1,149 | 4¢ | $51 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 07-02 08:36:01 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x39ad4c… |
| 06-30 14:41:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 120 | 5¢ | $6 | 0x4bc5da… |
| 06-30 14:41:49 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 120 | 95¢ | $114 | 0x4bc5da… |
| 06-30 12:36:29 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x81888f… |
| 06-30 12:36:29 | (anonymous) 0xd3a8…8c0d | No | BUY | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0x81888f… |
| 06-30 12:36:11 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0xb6b77a… |
| 06-30 12:36:11 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x6f953e… |
| 06-30 12:36:11 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xb6b77a… |
| 06-30 12:36:11 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x6f953e… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 278 | 4¢ | $12 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | (anonymous) 0xdb33…9d2f | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-30 12:36:10 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0x41c333… |
| 06-29 09:46:53 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc6469f… |
| 06-29 09:46:53 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc6469f… |
| 06-29 09:46:13 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 130 | 4¢ | $6 | 0x80af29… |
| 06-29 09:46:13 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 122 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x80af29… |
| 06-29 09:46:13 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x80af29… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 270 | 4¢ | $12 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | (anonymous) 0x3781…796d | No | SELL | 140 | 96¢ | $134 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | (anonymous) 0xccc8…cff0 | No | SELL | 58 | 96¢ | $55 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:11 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf22c83… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 730 | 4¢ | $32 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x631f…8a3b | No | SELL | 42 | 96¢ | $40 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x9a1e…5de7 | No | SELL | 55 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 400 | 4¢ | $18 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x834b…1f64 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x2d37…b653 | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | BUY | 68 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0xd3a8…8c0d | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-29 09:46:08 | (anonymous) 0x77ff…0a9e | No | SELL | 27 | 96¢ | $26 | 0x7f3f8a… |
| 06-27 12:38:28 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf05616… |
| 06-27 12:38:28 | (anonymous) 0xccc8…cff0 | No | BUY | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xf05616… |
| 06-27 12:38:28 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf05616… |
| 06-27 10:25:20 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xdd3bef… |
| 06-27 10:25:20 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xdd3bef… |
| 06-27 10:25:20 | (anonymous) 0xccc8…cff0 | No | BUY | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0xdd3bef… |