Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,292
Trades
50
Unique wallets
24
Liquidity
$3,898
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-12 09:34
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | — | $15 | $15 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $13 | $38 | $25 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $9 | $19 | $10 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $2 | $120 | $118 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $8 | $53 | $44 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 11 | $11 | $139 | $128 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +101 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-09 06:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x834b…1f64 | No | +54 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 06-10 08:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x6bd5…7f04 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 06-10 08:49 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +40 | $38 | $38 | 2 | 06-10 08:49 |
| Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdc4…3bd2 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 08:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x9a1e…5de7 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 05-30 08:33 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +15 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-01 22:55 |
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $1 | 3 | 06-12 09:34 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $2 | 3 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x21c3…5654 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 09:34:18 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbd5db1… |
| 06-12 09:34:18 | (anonymous) 0x7ce6…16a3 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbd5db1… |
| 06-10 08:49:18 | (anonymous) 0x6bd5…7f04 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x32a8b3… |
| 06-10 08:49:18 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x32a8b3… |
| 06-10 08:49:18 | (anonymous) 0x834b…1f64 | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x32a8b3… |
| 06-10 08:49:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 124 | 4¢ | $6 | 0x32a8b3… |
| 06-09 06:48:00 | (anonymous) 0x94e1…f851 | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x94f9c9… |
| 06-09 06:48:00 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x94f9c9… |
| 06-09 06:46:51 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xd4a1ac… |
| 06-09 06:46:51 | Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0xd4a1ac… |
| 06-09 06:46:03 | Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x69d2e7… |
| 06-09 06:46:03 | (anonymous) 0x21c3…5654 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x69d2e7… |
| 06-09 06:46:03 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x69d2e7… |
| 06-09 06:45:55 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 86 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xd8aa04… |
| 06-09 06:45:55 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xd8aa04… |
| 06-09 06:45:55 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 106 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xd8aa04… |
| 06-09 06:45:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6f5bfb… |
| 06-09 06:45:52 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x6f5bfb… |
| 06-09 06:45:52 | (anonymous) 0xbc2b…9c41 | No | SELL | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x6f5bfb… |
| 06-09 06:45:52 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 106 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x6f5bfb… |
| 06-09 06:45:52 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 184 | 5¢ | $9 | 0x6f5bfb… |
| 06-09 06:04:19 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x64065b… |
| 06-09 06:04:19 | Wrathful-Row 0x56c9…0d9e | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x64065b… |
| 06-09 03:56:52 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x9d4c8d… |
| 06-09 03:56:52 | (anonymous) 0xbc2b…9c41 | No | SELL | 12 | 95¢ | $11 | 0x9d4c8d… |
| 06-09 03:53:09 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 101 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x161634… |
| 06-09 03:53:09 | Straight-Symptom 0x2985…ca92 | No | SELL | 101 | 95¢ | $96 | 0x161634… |
| 06-06 13:24:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3a8006… |
| 06-06 13:24:37 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3a8006… |
| 06-06 13:23:04 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xbcfb54… |
| 06-06 13:23:04 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xbcfb54… |
| 06-06 13:21:58 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xb6c41b… |
| 06-06 13:21:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb6c41b… |
| 06-06 13:21:39 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x150455… |
| 06-06 13:21:39 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x150455… |
| 06-06 13:21:01 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x43940b… |
| 06-06 13:21:01 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x43940b… |
| 06-01 22:55:55 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 15 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x12d329… |
| 06-01 22:55:55 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 15 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x12d329… |
| 06-01 03:54:48 | Blank-Civilization 0x1719…5cea | No | SELL | 400 | 95¢ | $379 | 0x78108f… |
| 06-01 03:54:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 341 | 5¢ | $18 | 0x78108f… |
| 06-01 03:24:51 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 380 | 5¢ | $20 | 0x5c2974… |
| 06-01 03:24:51 | Pink-Receiver 0x97c2…55d6 | No | SELL | 400 | 95¢ | $379 | 0x5c2974… |
| 06-01 03:24:51 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x5c2974… |
| 05-30 21:28:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x8b0ba6… |
| 05-30 21:28:48 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x8b0ba6… |
| 05-30 08:33:26 | (anonymous) 0xfdc4…3bd2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xe72a87… |
| 05-30 08:33:26 | (anonymous) 0x9a1e…5de7 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0xe72a87… |
| 05-28 19:48:22 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | SELL | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xc727af… |
| 05-28 19:48:22 | Faint-Obedience 0xca76…b9c1 | No | SELL | 4 | 94¢ | $3 | 0xc727af… |