Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$10,787
Trades
382
Unique wallets
101
Liquidity
$3,898
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-13 18:15
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $6 | $557 | $552 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 26 | $193 | $1.8K | $1.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 25 | $36 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 40 | $12 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $6 | $86 | $80 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $14 | $632 | $619 |
| Median | 7 | $1 | $186 | $185 |
| Below median | 17 | $28 | $833 | $805 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $8 | $124 | $116 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $27 | $540 | $512 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $3 | $356 | $353 |
| unranked | 50 | $161 | $1.9K | $1.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starry-Digestion 0xe8fd…f411 | No | +358 | $345 | $345 | 3 | 08-10 18:07 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | +300 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | No | +300 | $286 | $286 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | +203 | $195 | $195 | 1 | 07-27 11:51 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +176 | $169 | $169 | 5 | 08-13 18:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +130 | $6 | $6 | 8 | 07-09 08:19 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +105 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-08 02:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd9b…d2a1 | No | +104 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-19 23:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 5 | 07-07 07:21 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +87 | $83 | $83 | 5 | 07-22 07:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x1aa8…018b | No | +60 | $58 | $58 | 1 | 08-07 18:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4a1…1f67 | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 08-13 18:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x1362…89e4 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 08-07 18:10 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +50 | $2 | $5 | 3 | 07-07 07:22 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | +50 | $48 | $105 | 3 | 07-08 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x01c7…97a3 | No | +49 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 08-13 18:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x453c…f5ee | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 08-07 18:10 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +41 | $40 | $541 | 8 | 08-13 18:05 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +34 | $1 | $4 | 4 | 07-08 02:57 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +34 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 07-05 07:46 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | +25 | $21 | $904 | 18 | 08-07 18:10 |
| Impossible-Pinecone 0x9771…db67 | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 08-10 18:04 |
| Uniform-Wrench 0xe196…b2b8 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-02 08:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xb87f…f7d4 | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 08-13 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 08-13 18:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x46c9…c26c | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-09 08:19 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +7 | $0 | $6 | 6 | 07-08 06:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xfbad…d55b | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-26 20:08 |
| Scarce-Coordinator 0x4ee8…7406 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-10 13:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x0109…02d4 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 23:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-02 18:06 |
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $1 | 3 | 06-12 09:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +3 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 07-12 03:29 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $6 | 7 | 06-30 12:36 |
| Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-11 06:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x21c3…5654 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-09 06:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 18:15:25 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 44 | 96¢ | $42 | 0x847b4b… |
| 08-13 18:15:25 | (anonymous) 0x3b69…01d7 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x847b4b… |
| 08-13 18:15:25 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x847b4b… |
| 08-13 18:07:18 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x6d2aed… |
| 08-13 18:07:18 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x6d2aed… |
| 08-13 18:07:12 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0x8211ef… |
| 08-13 18:07:12 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x8211ef… |
| 08-13 18:07:12 | (anonymous) 0xb87f…f7d4 | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x8211ef… |
| 08-13 18:07:04 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x15b44f… |
| 08-13 18:07:04 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x15b44f… |
| 08-13 18:07:04 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x15b44f… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | (anonymous) 0x01c7…97a3 | No | BUY | 49 | 96¢ | $47 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | (anonymous) 0x3b69…01d7 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | (anonymous) 0xe4a1…1f67 | No | BUY | 56 | 96¢ | $54 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-13 18:05:03 | Natural-Gear 0xd52b…5c72 | No | SELL | 276 | 96¢ | $265 | 0x0ad19d… |
| 08-11 17:27:13 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 88 | 97¢ | $85 | 0x728323… |
| 08-11 17:27:13 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 88 | 97¢ | $85 | 0x728323… |
| 08-11 06:11:10 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xc4dcf8… |
| 08-11 06:11:10 | Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xc4dcf8… |
| 08-10 18:07:37 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 54 | 97¢ | $52 | 0x304d84… |
| 08-10 18:07:37 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x304d84… |
| 08-10 18:07:36 | Starry-Digestion 0xe8fd…f411 | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x18094b… |
| 08-10 18:07:36 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x18094b… |
| 08-10 18:07:24 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xff26cf… |
| 08-10 18:07:24 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0xff26cf… |
| 08-10 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0xd9368e… |
| 08-10 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x1350bd… |
| 08-10 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x1350bd… |
| 08-10 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd9368e… |
| 08-10 18:07:16 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb4e74e… |
| 08-10 18:07:16 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb4e74e… |
| 08-10 18:07:15 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x562728… |
| 08-10 18:07:15 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x562728… |
| 08-10 18:07:13 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x99eeaa… |
| 08-10 18:07:13 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x99eeaa… |
| 08-10 18:07:12 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x7907cb… |
| 08-10 18:07:12 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7907cb… |
| 08-10 18:07:10 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0xc0a491… |
| 08-10 18:07:10 | (anonymous) 0xf70e…97f0 | No | SELL | 15 | 97¢ | $14 | 0xc0a491… |
| 08-10 18:07:10 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc0a491… |
| 08-10 18:07:09 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2a9fbc… |
| 08-10 18:07:09 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2a9fbc… |
| 08-10 18:07:07 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf5de97… |
| 08-10 18:07:07 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf5de97… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 160 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | Impossible-Pinecone 0x9771…db67 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:58 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf77b81… |
| 08-10 18:04:34 | Starry-Digestion 0xe8fd…f411 | No | BUY | 160 | 96¢ | $154 | 0x451cb9… |
| 08-10 18:04:34 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 160 | 4¢ | $6 | 0x451cb9… |
| 08-10 18:01:15 | (anonymous) 0xdef3…f121 | No | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0xe4dcbe… |
| 08-10 18:01:15 | (anonymous) 0x2976…db80 | No | SELL | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0xe4dcbe… |
| 08-10 18:01:15 | (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | SELL | 29 | 96¢ | $28 | 0xe4dcbe… |
| 08-10 18:01:15 | Impossible-Pinecone 0x9771…db67 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe4dcbe… |
| 08-10 18:01:15 | Starry-Digestion 0xe8fd…f411 | No | BUY | 144 | 96¢ | $139 | 0xe4dcbe… |
| 08-10 13:33:45 | Scarce-Coordinator 0x4ee8…7406 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc09d05… |
| 08-10 13:33:45 | (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc09d05… |
| 08-07 18:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xeb6e20… |
| 08-07 18:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x453c…f5ee | No | BUY | 42 | 96¢ | $40 | 0xeb6e20… |
| 08-07 18:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x1aa8…018b | No | BUY | 60 | 96¢ | $58 | 0xeb6e20… |
| 08-07 18:10:18 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 162 | 96¢ | $156 | 0xeb6e20… |
| 08-07 18:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x1362…89e4 | No | BUY | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xeb6e20… |
| 08-02 18:06:48 | (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xde2f06… |
| 08-02 18:06:48 | (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xde2f06… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | (anonymous) 0xb0f3…f4fa | No | SELL | 57 | 96¢ | $55 | 0x97fdd5… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 95 | 96¢ | $91 | 0x97fdd5… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | (anonymous) 0xd3a8…8c0d | No | SELL | 22 | 96¢ | $21 | 0x97fdd5… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | (anonymous) 0x28b0…fba8 | No | SELL | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x97fdd5… |
| 07-27 11:51:36 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 203 | 96¢ | $195 | 0xcc382c… |
| 07-27 11:51:36 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | BUY | 203 | 96¢ | $195 | 0xcc382c… |
| 07-26 20:08:57 | Confused-Cough 0x932d…6490 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x519572… |
| 07-26 20:08:57 | (anonymous) 0xfbad…d55b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x519572… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0xfbad…d55b | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7d7a83… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7d7a83… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | Confused-Cough 0x932d…6490 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x112a0d… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x112a0d… |
| 07-23 18:47:36 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xd96f01… |
| 07-23 18:47:36 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xd96f01… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | Bruised-Venison 0xfc83…e1aa | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-22 07:34:07 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x531b27… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | SELL | 35 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-18 18:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc4d5ec… |
| 07-13 08:28:14 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xae65e5… |
| 07-13 08:28:14 | (anonymous) 0xfdc4…3bd2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xae65e5… |
| 07-13 02:04:41 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x8c3605… |
| 07-13 02:04:41 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x8c3605… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0x7c3981… |
| 07-12 03:29:01 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 48 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x7c3981… |
| 07-12 02:56:35 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0x022106… |
| 07-12 02:56:35 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0x022106… |
| 07-12 02:56:29 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x9622bc… |