Square-Ore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

12.9%

Resolved

Trades

522

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$10

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-30 11:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% $-2

Politics

35% 25% $-45

Crypto

8% 100% +$4

Tech

5% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+18	$14	45¢	$8	$-6	05-31 11:33
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	+70	$3	3¢	$2	$-1	06-30 02:49
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-29	$-1	0¢	$-0	+$1	06-08 02:23
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$1	50¢	$0	$-1	06-07 22:01
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	$0	15¢	$0	$-0	06-25 19:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	16	$1.6K	1,204	1,204	+0	Yes	$-2	05-05 12:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$834	803	803	+0	open	—	05-07 13:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	12	$739	772	772	+0	open	—	05-05 05:07
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	6	$617	329	329	+0	open	—	04-27 14:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	6	$568	600	600	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:21
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	8	$480	284	284	+0	open	—	04-25 23:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	6	$461	400	400	+0	Yes	$-43	05-08 18:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$437	501	501	+0	open	—	04-20 20:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	12	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	05-06 18:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	7	$404	405	405	+0	open	—	04-18 07:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	4	$391	400	400	+0	open	—	05-05 12:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$388	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 11:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$384	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 12:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	10	$384	427	427	+0	open	—	04-25 23:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	14	$371	410	410	+0	open	—	04-17 13:22
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	6	$354	248	248	+0	No	+$0	05-06 15:02
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	6	$347	345	345	+0	open	—	04-28 13:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$334	279	279	+0	open	—	04-28 10:53
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	5	$325	191	191	+0	open	—	04-13 01:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	05-04 16:17
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	5	$320	177	177	+0	open	—	06-12 05:03
will the singers win best live action short film at the 98th academy awards	3	$289	154	154	+0	open	—	03-16 00:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$268	200	200	+0	open	—	05-04 06:59
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	11	$264	279	279	+0	open	—	04-27 02:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 11:21
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	6	$232	287	287	+0	open	—	04-13 10:20
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	9	$223	240	222	+18	open	—	06-03 05:20
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	5	$220	177	177	+1	open	—	04-14 18:56
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	4	$216	231	231	+0	open	—	05-17 18:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$215	203	203	+0	open	—	04-18 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 13:27:28	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0xe9bfd5…
06-30 11:32:07	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x4a3783…
06-30 07:50:43	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xf89dda…
06-30 07:16:22	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x33cd89…
06-30 07:15:43	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x323e68…
06-30 02:49:43	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0x1f9fcc…
06-29 17:17:43	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	45	11¢	$5	0xdac88a…
06-29 11:55:40	Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0xa3710e…
06-27 18:56:46	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	25¢	$12	0x92205d…
06-27 18:50:38	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	25¢	$12	0xa29c9b…
06-27 12:53:16	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x499459…
06-27 12:52:44	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x63ec0a…
06-27 12:52:22	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x2fc374…
06-27 12:51:32	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x756940…
06-26 20:51:46	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0xcbaff7…
06-26 20:51:25	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0xefeb8c…
06-26 10:27:40	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	32	79¢	$25	0xcb6b86…
06-26 07:47:02	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x617a20…
06-25 19:22:31	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	27¢	$6	0xeaabfb…
06-25 19:22:29	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x81f05d…
06-24 23:35:23	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x66835d…
06-23 18:45:08	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0xcc4a6c…
06-23 18:40:26	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x1b6793…
06-19 23:21:01	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	94¢	$76	0x46e1b5…
06-19 23:19:41	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$18	0x3b8d08…
06-19 20:00:26	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x203366…
06-18 14:19:32	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$7	0x7cf3ea…
06-18 14:18:56	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3a463d…
06-18 14:11:47	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xbfdcb8…
06-16 20:58:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0xfb1188…
06-15 18:47:27	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$8	0x43b0d0…
06-15 10:07:16	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	No	SELL	78	95¢	$74	0x5da0e2…
06-13 20:17:31	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	18¢	$8	0x8ee5c8…
06-12 21:38:12	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x3e7d8c…
06-12 20:28:52	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	18¢	$4	0x2b8fcd…
06-12 19:04:18	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	18¢	$21	0xc4bf84…
06-12 16:58:22	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0xe9e842…
06-12 16:57:18	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x978adb…
06-12 16:57:18	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x5952ef…
06-12 16:57:15	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xa7cafc…
06-12 16:56:57	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xc36a8c…
06-12 16:56:46	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xb44842…
06-12 16:56:43	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0xab7385…
06-12 16:56:43	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	21	85¢	$18	0x0a31ca…
06-12 15:41:45	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xf53c38…
06-12 15:34:52	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xad303c…
06-12 15:26:03	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	120	88¢	$105	0x5757f6…
06-12 05:21:33	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0x801bff…
06-12 05:03:31	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	79	92¢	$72	0xf1d624…
06-12 03:53:15	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x8b5a2f…
06-12 03:52:39	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xd96de5…
06-12 01:10:34	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	41	92¢	$38	0x3af45e…
06-12 00:13:12	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x264b24…
06-11 12:27:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0x43ee7a…
06-11 12:26:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x31cd7a…
06-11 07:05:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	12¢	$11	0xfde0a0…
06-11 07:05:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x510dc2…
06-10 23:03:30	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	120	42¢	$50	0xda9ca6…
06-10 19:36:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0xf81e0f…
06-10 19:36:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xc16c0e…
06-10 19:36:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	13	28¢	$4	0x81952b…
06-10 19:36:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	32	29¢	$9	0x39ec16…
06-10 19:27:33	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	120	45¢	$54	0xcefa0a…
06-09 13:39:13	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0x90e066…
06-09 13:29:58	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x89ac36…
06-09 13:29:30	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x632ab3…
06-09 13:29:19	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x0ba75a…
06-09 12:11:48	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x2ddf95…
06-09 12:10:27	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	23¢	$3	0xd89147…
06-09 11:01:43	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x66d094…
06-09 10:33:03	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x06a7ae…
06-09 10:22:09	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xf65dcb…
06-09 10:07:39	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x51861c…
06-09 09:42:13	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x19b879…
06-09 08:17:01	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0x2f9e30…
06-09 07:57:18	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x6a0fad…
06-09 07:50:43	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0x318b3a…
06-08 21:15:00	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	120	80¢	$96	0xdc4307…
06-08 21:14:54	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	120	81¢	$97	0xff30d1…
06-08 19:12:21	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x655751…
06-08 15:34:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	88¢	$106	0x12033e…
06-08 15:34:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0x6ed534…
06-08 06:20:45	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xe4eac5…
06-08 02:23:04	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xc667ed…
06-08 01:44:37	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x6b784b…
06-08 00:12:03	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	4¢	$3	0x18de78…
06-07 22:01:09	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	64¢	$30	0x65490c…
06-07 21:33:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	64¢	$12	0x5bd691…
06-07 19:54:49	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xa657a9…
06-07 19:12:07	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x7ea9d9…
06-07 18:44:45	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x2ae4b2…
06-07 18:44:31	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	72	65¢	$47	0x8485ff…
06-07 18:15:27	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x88aa4c…
06-07 18:14:30	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	8¢	$4	0x3f7d97…
06-07 03:58:06	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	61	76¢	$46	0xc14c09…
06-07 03:00:22	Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	39	17¢	$7	0xce07d1…
06-07 00:12:30	Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	39	27¢	$11	0x76a836…
06-06 20:01:33	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	61	76¢	$46	0x537b25…
06-06 12:00:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	44	77¢	$34	0x40d1c3…
06-06 11:45:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x171325…