Square-Ore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

12.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,084

lifetime

Volume

$27.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 08-11 00:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% $-2

Politics

28% 25% $-45

Crypto

14% 100% +$4

Tech

5% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	16	$1.6K	1,204	1,204	+0	Yes	$-2	05-05 12:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$834	803	803	+0	open	—	05-07 13:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	12	$739	772	772	+0	open	—	05-05 05:07
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	6	$617	329	329	+0	open	—	04-27 14:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	6	$568	600	600	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:21
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	8	$480	284	284	+0	open	—	04-25 23:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	6	$461	400	400	+0	Yes	$-43	05-08 18:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$437	501	501	+0	open	—	04-20 20:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	12	$429	300	300	+0	open	—	05-06 18:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	7	$404	405	405	+0	open	—	04-18 07:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	4	$391	400	400	+0	open	—	05-05 12:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$388	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 11:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$384	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 12:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	10	$384	427	427	+0	open	—	04-25 23:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	14	$371	410	410	+0	open	—	04-17 13:22
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	6	$354	248	248	+0	No	+$0	05-06 15:02
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	6	$347	345	345	+0	open	—	04-28 13:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$334	279	279	+0	open	—	04-28 10:53
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	5	$325	191	191	+0	open	—	04-13 01:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	05-04 16:17
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	5	$320	177	177	+0	open	—	06-12 05:03
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	15	$303	319	301	+18	open	—	08-05 12:09
will the singers win best live action short film at the 98th academy awards	3	$289	154	154	+0	open	—	03-16 00:19
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	13	$280	259	259	+0	open	—	08-05 04:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$268	200	200	+0	open	—	05-04 06:59
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	11	$267	250	250	+0	open	—	08-01 02:01
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	11	$264	279	279	+0	open	—	04-27 02:59
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	8	$246	250	250	+0	open	—	08-02 22:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 11:21
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	6	$232	287	287	+0	open	—	04-13 10:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 01:21:49	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x8aafde…
08-11 00:46:16	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	SELL	38	25¢	$9	0x89b8c9…
08-11 00:37:19	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x705bab…
08-11 00:09:39	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	32	74¢	$24	0xb98383…
08-11 00:09:36	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x78be46…
08-10 23:31:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xdd4cf5…
08-10 22:32:46	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xc041ca…
08-10 22:25:27	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x7a43bf…
08-10 20:34:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x53f88d…
08-10 20:02:04	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	45	54¢	$24	0x36a75c…
08-10 19:53:49	Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0x3ee067…
08-10 19:50:52	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x137b86…
08-10 19:43:46	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xc80300…
08-10 19:29:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	25	74¢	$18	0x8bcea6…
08-10 18:11:52	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0xd69cdf…
08-10 17:33:55	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x6076f1…
08-10 16:08:04	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	10	56¢	$5	0xd8a777…
08-10 15:53:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xa7fa28…
08-10 15:24:13	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	23	57¢	$13	0x28632e…
08-10 15:22:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	33	56¢	$18	0x1091c6…
08-10 14:08:18	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	39	77¢	$30	0xfab0b8…
08-10 13:57:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	39	78¢	$31	0x90339a…
08-10 11:20:22	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x6b930a…
08-10 01:21:22	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x13e6bc…
08-09 10:38:06	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x02fba5…
08-09 10:06:46	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x228f2f…
08-08 00:40:12	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x764b52…
08-07 17:35:09	Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x1bc0c3…
08-07 12:49:40	Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x0fbdec…
08-07 11:17:39	Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	66	90¢	$59	0x795bd8…
08-07 06:08:30	Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x2408d6…
08-06 00:38:47	Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x9a88dd…
08-05 23:12:35	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x90009b…
08-05 22:11:59	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0xa84c8a…
08-05 21:38:00	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x5cd544…
08-05 19:52:48	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xb03a71…
08-05 19:24:48	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x90613b…
08-05 18:23:23	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x05878e…
08-05 18:10:39	Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x679147…
08-05 15:20:39	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x91993b…
08-05 15:19:26	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x339f97…
08-05 13:49:05	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x8df966…
08-05 13:30:48	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	85¢	$31	0xdd355d…
08-05 13:26:27	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x526e57…
08-05 13:25:30	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x81e67b…
08-05 12:09:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	29	86¢	$25	0xf0291e…
08-05 11:59:38	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xd8a79a…
08-05 10:07:12	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xa9f4aa…
08-05 08:04:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	22	73¢	$16	0xba63ec…
08-05 08:04:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0x962eb5…
08-05 08:04:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	34	72¢	$25	0x81f49a…
08-05 08:01:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x96be3f…
08-05 07:56:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xbd3fa2…
08-05 07:09:00	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x70607d…
08-05 06:51:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x4709f9…
08-05 06:05:45	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xdb8234…
08-05 06:01:30	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0xac2e64…
08-05 06:01:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xd68803…
08-05 04:34:12	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	28	66¢	$18	0x71659d…
08-05 04:33:39	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0xa4e41f…
08-05 02:08:32	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0xe4e4da…
08-05 01:40:38	NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xe85fae…
08-04 22:31:17	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x75daa7…
08-04 21:54:57	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x684455…
08-04 18:07:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x8bbb13…
08-04 17:09:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x3f7da4…
08-04 15:25:29	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xb1a2cd…
08-04 15:03:21	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xe36823…
08-04 09:34:26	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x1d7410…
08-04 08:47:05	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x9c5e4f…
08-04 08:41:53	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	35	26¢	$9	0xe78c34…
08-03 14:40:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0xdbfd75…
08-03 13:13:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x94f9d5…
08-03 11:48:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0xcc917b…
08-03 11:47:54	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	30¢	$10	0xfb6edb…
08-03 11:31:05	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x0c27c6…
08-03 11:29:53	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xca473d…
08-03 10:55:57	Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xa4f8f3…
08-03 04:34:23	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x3cb6aa…
08-03 02:23:39	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x1e385f…
08-03 01:13:26	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x4d776d…
08-03 01:13:21	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb82832…
08-02 23:04:48	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	13¢	$4	0x9479de…
08-02 22:46:41	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xf9b565…
08-02 22:41:36	Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x2a3cc8…
08-02 22:37:29	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	13¢	$4	0x35e10a…
08-02 21:10:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xd7d2b9…
08-02 18:52:14	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	9¢	$4	0x73f2f1…
08-02 16:48:53	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0xcc0b85…
08-02 14:40:56	Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xcd413e…
08-02 14:16:30	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0x179a1f…
08-02 13:52:30	Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0xfbd57e…
08-02 12:29:08	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x8fd457…
08-02 10:19:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x012a57…
08-02 10:03:45	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x1988cd…
08-02 10:01:45	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0xa87f63…
08-02 09:47:45	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xc7ff37…
08-02 09:28:53	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0xccbcef…
08-02 09:18:08	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x1c708f…
08-02 05:06:42	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x494d85…