Mealy-Elbow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$80

Hit rate

7.3%

Resolved

5,802

Trades

33,599

lifetime

Volume

$601.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$16

26 positions

First seen

2026-03-07

last 10-28 06:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 156 days

Categories

Other

60% 9% -$8,280

Politics

25% 4% -$3,223

Crypto

9% 49% -$153

Sports

3% 11% -$324

Tech

3% 2% -$359

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 743 trades/day

Open positions (26) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480	Yes	+50	$65	23¢	$12	-$54	09-30 20:09
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	+50	$4	5¢	$2	-$2	10-28 04:57
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	Yes	+50	$3	2¢	$1	-$2	10-27 20:55
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	+50	$4	2¢	$1	-$3	09-27 13:26
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	3¢	$1	-$1	10-26 18:38
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+0	$0	89¢	$0	$0	08-06 11:55
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	07-03 06:02
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	07-09 10:19
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+0	$1	98¢	$0	-$1	07-04 09:38
Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	+0	$1	87¢	$0	-$1	10-16 03:50
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	+0	$2	85¢	$0	-$2	08-31 14:04
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+0	$2	70¢	$0	-$2	07-31 20:38
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	+0	$0	30¢	$0	$0	07-09 15:05
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	+0	$4	12¢	$0	-$4	07-09 14:49
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	18¢	$0	+$0	09-17 20:31
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	07-09 22:36
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	7¢	$0	$0	10-26 23:31
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	+0	$3	4¢	$0	-$3	10-15 15:37
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?	Yes	+0	$0	6¢	$0	$0	10-19 16:31
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	07-29 09:33
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	6¢	$0	$0	10-04 21:17
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	+0	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	10-25 05:36
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	10-26 09:37
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	4¢	$0	$0	09-13 11:50
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	+0	$0	4¢	$0	+$0	10-23 16:48
macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	Yes	+0	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	09-29 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	38	$3.1K	7,788	7,788	+0	No	+$47	03-30 22:04
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	20	$2.0K	1,803	1,803	+0	open	—	09-12 05:17
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	12	$1.6K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$20	09-13 11:07
netanyahu out by march 31 854	10	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	03-15 23:45
will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	15	$1.5K	1,201	1,201	+0	open	—	09-04 18:33
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?	18	$1.2K	829	829	+0	open	—	10-15 21:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	10	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	09-13 01:37
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	25	$1.1K	690	690	+0	open	—	10-20 22:27
will openai ipo by september 30 2026	6	$1.1K	572	572	+0	No	-$2	08-16 20:37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	31	$1.1K	806	806	+0	open	—	10-18 10:37
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	19	$884	583	533	+50	open	—	09-30 20:09
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	19	$878	581	581	+0	open	—	10-01 14:27
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	12	$846	921	921	+0	open	—	09-06 19:27
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	30	$834	762	762	+0	open	—	10-27 03:52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	26	$815	1,922	1,922	+0	Yes	-$39	04-06 01:16
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?	12	$805	450	450	+0	No	-$5	07-11 01:43
trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	10	$802	800	800	+0	open	—	08-31 02:07
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	18	$792	540	540	+0	open	—	10-14 10:07
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	6	$786	600	600	+0	open	—	09-12 17:27
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	6	$782	600	600	+0	open	—	09-07 21:57
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	14	$780	460	460	+0	open	—	10-22 12:37
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	11	$765	450	450	+0	No	-$2	08-01 23:47
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	24	$764	664	664	+0	open	—	10-06 18:57
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	8	$760	585	585	+0	No	-$2	03-15 16:05
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	30	$725	728	728	+0	open	—	09-21 22:17
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	15	$724	450	450	+0	open	—	10-12 15:07
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	22	$706	713	713	+0	open	—	10-17 06:07
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	20	$703	556	556	+0	open	—	10-15 10:17
French election called by December 31, 2026?	25	$701	515	515	+0	open	—	10-27 19:37
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	19	$700	568	568	+0	open	—	09-10 21:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:47:10	Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x797a60…
10-28 07:47:10	Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x1d3707…
10-28 07:47:08	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x91888d…
10-28 07:45:37	Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x165ecf…
10-28 07:45:02	Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x79db9c…
10-28 07:27:08	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0xce83c7…
10-28 07:27:07	Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x71bd46…
10-28 07:24:05	Will AP call US House control by November 15, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x019fbc…
10-28 07:23:10	Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa98421…
10-28 06:37:29	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x1b7115…
10-28 05:39:16	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x2b8e5e…
10-28 05:37:20	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xc1504c…
10-28 05:23:49	Will Movistar KOI Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$1	0x81a3b2…
10-28 05:23:47	Will Movistar KOI Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x9bcbd5…
10-28 04:57:53	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x7ffee2…
10-28 04:57:52	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xf81fa0…
10-28 04:57:05	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xddbd2f…
10-28 04:56:35	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x737160…
10-28 04:56:34	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x79a373…
10-28 04:55:22	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xa827cf…
10-28 04:54:44	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x13dd8e…
10-28 04:47:08	Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xa28dbb…
10-28 04:41:25	Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x7b54e3…
10-28 04:33:32	Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xadef32…
10-28 04:33:07	Pacifica FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xa2e258…
10-28 04:32:52	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,250,000 and 8,500,000?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x4c33fa…
10-28 04:32:31	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x5dd074…
10-28 04:32:22	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	No	SELL	21	89¢	$19	0x26af81…
10-28 04:32:08	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x658f33…
10-28 04:31:05	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x2663cc…
10-28 04:30:53	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x553378…
10-28 04:29:53	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x8d3d6e…
10-28 04:29:52	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x218aa5…
10-28 04:28:19	Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x39d56c…
10-28 03:34:06	Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5c68fc…
10-28 03:34:06	Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x207b56…
10-28 03:27:07	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe91a6e…
10-28 03:23:03	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x32f49f…
10-28 03:12:16	Will the Republicans win Fort Bend County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x52689e…
10-28 03:07:08	Will the Democrats win Fort Bend County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xb03ef9…
10-28 03:07:08	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x009fa9…
10-28 03:05:02	Will the Democrats win Fort Bend County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x0313d1…
10-28 02:45:47	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?	No	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0xd166c4…
10-28 02:27:08	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x353cf7…
10-28 02:19:38	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x9d062a…
10-28 02:04:17	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x984812…
10-28 01:47:35	Pacifica FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x1e30ad…
10-28 01:35:45	Pacifica FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x05ebe5…
10-28 01:35:44	Pacifica FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$47	0x0eb39c…
10-28 00:57:29	Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xea2942…
10-28 00:57:08	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x1280c5…
10-28 00:54:06	Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xbbf1e9…
10-28 00:52:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x9b514a…
10-28 00:47:12	Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0xb4687f…
10-28 00:13:09	Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be between 3,800,000 and 4,000,000?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x3e732f…
10-27 23:57:06	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x32b7df…
10-27 23:48:56	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xe4a178…
10-27 23:32:05	Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x5aabbf…
10-27 23:26:12	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x04c5f4…
10-27 23:25:11	Will Karmine Corp Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x6e42f1…
10-27 23:24:48	Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x326a32…
10-27 23:24:39	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x125233…
10-27 23:24:29	Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x832126…
10-27 23:24:21	Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x1c7896…
10-27 23:24:14	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x69615d…
10-27 23:24:05	Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x6106e6…
10-27 23:07:08	Will the Detroit Pistons make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x387a22…
10-27 23:02:21	Will the Detroit Pistons make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x53830f…
10-27 22:42:57	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,250,000 and 8,500,000?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc89b80…
10-27 22:37:08	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x44caa5…
10-27 22:37:06	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x84d6a7…
10-27 22:33:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xfc06ca…
10-27 22:32:56	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xf6b3e6…
10-27 22:30:05	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0xdc1a78…
10-27 22:27:36	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x3624ef…
10-27 22:27:08	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,900,000 and 3,050,000?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x5e2764…
10-27 22:27:08	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x51a5ec…
10-27 22:27:06	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	47	97¢	$46	0xb54dba…
10-27 22:26:30	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x461816…
10-27 22:26:14	Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x8d91d9…
10-27 22:21:44	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,900,000 and 3,050,000?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x913ad3…
10-27 21:49:29	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x9b7799…
10-27 21:47:12	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x9b6070…
10-27 21:47:12	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x6c7ee0…
10-27 21:27:08	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic vice-presidential nomination?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x0847c6…
10-27 21:23:51	Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic vice-presidential nomination?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xd53e6b…
10-27 21:17:08	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x9b5853…
10-27 21:14:48	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x5df00a…
10-27 20:57:06	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x258e30…
10-27 20:55:57	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x5b23f6…
10-27 20:51:35	Will UNI reach $14.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe2b1c0…
10-27 20:21:08	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$10	0x555830…
10-27 20:17:14	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$10	0xf91c8e…
10-27 20:11:12	Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x8dfd7c…
10-27 20:10:09	Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xfbb9bb…
10-27 19:51:15	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xd0fced…
10-27 19:48:54	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x593749…
10-27 19:37:08	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$15	0xcd6439…
10-27 19:37:06	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xf9c906…
10-27 19:37:00	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$15	0x40d8f6…