Realized P&L
-$2.58K
Unrealized P&L
-$37
Hit rate
74.7%
Resolved
4,850
Trades
32,608
lifetime
Volume
$453.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$349
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-13
last 10-27 10:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 107 days
Categories
Other
94% 53% -$2,450
Crypto
4% 80% +$51
Politics
3% 38% -$200
Tech
0% 45% -$32
Sports
0% 47% +$52
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 544 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +46 $25 84¢ $38 +$13 09-10 10:05
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +227 $26 14¢ $31 +$5 08-29 04:14
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +28 $25 95¢ $27 +$1 09-09 08:45
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +26 $22 94¢ $25 +$3 08-21 11:48
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? No +21 $19 91¢ $19 $0 09-15 09:22
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +121 $17 14¢ $16 -$1 09-14 17:16
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No +16 $15 96¢ $15 +$0 08-31 11:53
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +16 $11 92¢ $15 +$4 08-17 11:07
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +16 $14 87¢ $14 +$0 09-04 15:10
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +14 $12 95¢ $14 +$1 07-23 21:03
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 No +16 $11 78¢ $13 +$1 07-16 11:34
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 +$0 09-15 13:08
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +10 $6 96¢ $10 +$4 08-05 06:39
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +13 $10 70¢ $10 -$1 09-13 08:35
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +10 $9 98¢ $9 +$0 09-11 13:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +11 $8 82¢ $9 +$1 09-07 18:27
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 Yes +66 $43 14¢ $9 -$34 07-31 20:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Yes +33 $11 24¢ $8 -$3 09-12 10:39
No one announced as next James Bond? No +10 $8 75¢ $7 -$1 09-08 18:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +8 $1 88¢ $7 +$6 09-03 08:45
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes +124 $39 4¢ $5 -$34 08-31 16:10
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +6 $3 74¢ $5 +$2 09-11 07:19
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$0 09-07 06:17
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +32 $9 15¢ $5 -$4 07-13 22:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +26 $4 17¢ $4 +$1 08-15 08:24
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +5 $4 88¢ $4 +$0 07-14 05:56
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +30 $3 15¢ $4 +$1 08-25 20:49
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Yes +47 $11 9¢ $4 -$7 08-30 16:31
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No +4 $4 96¢ $4 +$0 08-05 21:25
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +5 $3 76¢ $4 +$1 09-12 23:17