Realized P&L
-$28.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$420
Hit rate
2.9%
Resolved
5,464
Trades
105,310
lifetime
Volume
$3.10M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$29
Open exposure
$679
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-08
last 10-28 12:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 81 days
Categories
Other
60% 5% -$18,954
Politics
28% 5% -$7,514
Tech
5% 6% -$1,446
Sports
4% 5% -$375
Crypto
3% 7% -$247
Pop-Culture
1% 7% -$134
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 3005 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No -393 -$306 91¢ $-356 -$50 09-13 13:36
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +200 $163 72¢ $145 -$18 10-27 10:38
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes -160 $8 54¢ $-86 -$94 10-23 13:36
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +243 $44 14¢ $33 -$11 10-28 11:41
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +50 $64 54¢ $27 -$37 10-28 13:15
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat? Yes -400 -$12 3¢ $-13 -$1 10-10 17:23
Blue tsunami in 2026? No -24 -$4 40¢ $-10 -$6 10-21 14:22
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No -3 $3 86¢ $-3 -$6 10-26 20:07
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? Yes +20 $10 7¢ $1 -$8 10-26 16:56
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? No +20 $4 6¢ $1 -$3 10-27 07:42
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +0 $1 93¢ $0 -$1 10-16 14:50
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 $0 10-15 17:49
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +0 $5 94¢ $0 -$4 10-26 14:06
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +0 $16 96¢ $0 -$16 10-27 08:39
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? No +0 $11 80¢ $0 -$10 10-22 00:50
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No +0 $2 83¢ $0 -$2 10-24 08:19
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +0 $0 93¢ $0 $0 10-28 02:18
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +0 $1 97¢ $0 -$1 10-23 15:37
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No +0 $2 90¢ $0 -$2 10-27 01:37
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +3 $4 6¢ $0 -$3 10-28 13:05
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +0 $1 88¢ $0 -$1 10-23 20:36
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +0 $1 91¢ $0 -$1 10-24 10:58
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +0 $4 92¢ $0 -$4 10-26 11:46
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No +0 $5 14¢ $0 -$5 10-09 20:41
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $9 99¢ $0 -$8 10-22 00:20
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 10¢ $0 +$0 10-24 12:14
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 10¢ $0 +$0 08-12 13:12
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No +0 $3 82¢ $0 -$3 10-17 16:01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No +0 $29 88¢ $0 -$29 10-25 21:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +0 $94 96¢ $0 -$93 10-27 17:58