Realized P&L
-$576
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
43.2%
Resolved
3,419
Trades
10,849
lifetime
Volume
$45.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$8
14 positions
First seen
2026-03-02
last 11-02 19:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 142 days
Categories
Crypto
40% 58% -$33
Other
33% 37% -$267
Sports
13% 31% -$158
Politics
13% 34% -$78
Tech
1% 27% -$37
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
46 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +2 $1 66¢ $2 +$0 07-08 16:37
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? Yes +5 $1 24¢ $1 +$0 11-02 10:54
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +3 $2 38¢ $1 -$1 07-09 14:42
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +7 $1 12¢ $1 +$0 11-01 13:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +7 $1 10¢ $1 $0 10-25 14:55
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy? Yes +3 $1 18¢ $1 $0 09-28 08:53
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +5 $1 11¢ $1 -$1 10-22 16:30
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +5 $1 10¢ $1 -$1 11-02 19:20
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes -5 -$2 5¢ $-0 +$1 06-07 23:56
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +4 -$4 3¢ $0 +$4 06-18 18:06
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +0 $0 63¢ $0 +$0 07-07 08:11
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +2 $0 4¢ $0 $0 06-06 01:49
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? Yes +4 $0 1¢ $0 $0 06-12 09:34
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +0 $0 2¢ $0 +$0 06-20 22:11