Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
open
Total volume
$2,083
$16,788 in 24h
Trades
44
Unique wallets
23
Liquidity
$115,661
Latest YES mid
26¢
Latest NO mid
74¢
End date
2028-11-07
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 21:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+96.6¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $5
vs crowd: 3% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 22 | $32 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $2 | $2 |
| unranked | 20 | $32 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arid-Knee 0x27c7…4399 | No | +434 | $320 | $320 | 1 | 05-05 09:46 |
| Radiant-Cummerbund 0x7cbd…78bf | No | +217 | $160 | $160 | 1 | 05-05 16:37 |
| Menacing-Pin 0x9ab5…00dc | No | +163 | $120 | $120 | 1 | 05-05 16:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | No | +40 | $30 | $59 | 4 | 05-05 18:23 |
| Elementary-Spelt 0x5cc9…bfbc | Yes | +38 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-05 15:32 |
| Wrathful-Recorder 0x8f73…0546 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-04 20:05 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +17 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 04:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x3f5e…0427 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-05 08:06 |
| Electric-Circumstance 0x41b4…bd65 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-05 11:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 08:51 |
| Precious-Female 0xa544…a924 | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 09:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xfb93…eb7f | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 05:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d36…3546 | No | +1 | $1 | $3 | 3 | 05-05 19:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 21:54:32 | (anonymous) 0x187d…f4d8 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xe1306b… |
| 05-05 21:54:16 | (anonymous) 0x187d…f4d8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x0e588d… |
| 05-05 19:42:56 | (anonymous) 0x1d36…3546 | No | SELL | 2 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x91b4e0… |
| 05-05 19:26:34 | Spotted-Wildlife-Alteration 0xc511…1145 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x746973… |
| 05-05 19:17:54 | (anonymous) 0xcb39…1d84 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 26¢ | $4 | 0x40b75e… |
| 05-05 19:17:20 | (anonymous) 0xcb39…1d84 | No | SELL | 3 | 74¢ | $2 | 0xfd156a… |
| 05-05 18:23:20 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xb19f8c… |
| 05-05 18:23:20 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x613972… |
| 05-05 18:23:18 | Unruly-Fear 0x32a4…6739 | No | SELL | 530 | 74¢ | $391 | 0xcfca24… |
| 05-05 18:23:04 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xb15b68… |
| 05-05 18:23:04 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xbcf61c… |
| 05-05 18:22:56 | Unlucky-Role 0x1e12…3f46 | No | SELL | 60 | 74¢ | $44 | 0xe57320… |
| 05-05 18:22:54 | Unruly-Fear 0x32a4…6739 | No | BUY | 530 | 74¢ | $392 | 0xed5954… |
| 05-05 18:14:28 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xb18ace… |
| 05-05 18:14:28 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xa8c2b1… |
| 05-05 18:14:12 | Unlucky-Role 0x1e12…3f46 | No | SELL | 2 | 74¢ | $2 | 0x4dcbfa… |
| 05-05 18:14:10 | Bite-Sized-Lyocell 0x03ed…8f34 | Yes | SELL | 760 | 26¢ | $200 | 0x60d8c4… |
| 05-05 16:39:22 | Menacing-Pin 0x9ab5…00dc | No | BUY | 163 | 74¢ | $120 | 0x82d0ff… |
| 05-05 16:37:44 | Radiant-Cummerbund 0x7cbd…78bf | No | BUY | 217 | 74¢ | $160 | 0x29a4c6… |
| 05-05 15:49:46 | (anonymous) 0xcb39…1d84 | No | BUY | 3 | 74¢ | $2 | 0x2326c1… |
| 05-05 15:47:22 | (anonymous) 0xcb39…1d84 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x0764da… |
| 05-05 15:32:24 | Elementary-Spelt 0x5cc9…bfbc | Yes | BUY | 38 | 26¢ | $10 | 0xca4de4… |
| 05-05 13:17:06 | Definite-Web 0xb19a…66a2 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 26¢ | $3 | 0xc31e75… |
| 05-05 12:51:36 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x212524… |
| 05-05 12:51:34 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0x7a775e… |
| 05-05 11:06:34 | Electric-Circumstance 0x41b4…bd65 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x08299b… |
| 05-05 09:46:30 | (anonymous) 0xd4b5…fd07 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x7736fa… |
| 05-05 09:46:20 | Arid-Knee 0x27c7…4399 | No | BUY | 434 | 74¢ | $320 | 0x0077e7… |
| 05-05 09:31:22 | (anonymous) 0x1d36…3546 | No | BUY | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x5cb146… |
| 05-05 09:01:00 | Precious-Female 0xa544…a924 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x86fbc2… |
| 05-05 08:51:16 | (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xcc0fdb… |
| 05-05 08:46:06 | (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | No | SELL | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x699cb2… |
| 05-05 08:06:10 | (anonymous) 0x3f5e…0427 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x50d9ac… |
| 05-05 07:30:48 | (anonymous) 0x1d36…3546 | No | BUY | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0xc9d575… |
| 05-05 07:05:08 | Smart-Cloves 0x798c…7ff6 | No | SELL | 149 | 74¢ | $110 | 0x17b6d4… |
| 05-05 06:40:54 | Advanced-Gesture 0x963f…4487 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 26¢ | $6 | 0x41fd16… |
| 05-05 05:09:54 | (anonymous) 0xfb93…eb7f | Yes | BUY | 4 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xbb4438… |
| 05-05 04:49:48 | (anonymous) 0x1d36…3546 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xa03513… |
| 05-05 04:45:02 | (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | No | SELL | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x77c864… |
| 05-05 04:30:34 | Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xb322e2… |
| 05-05 03:00:20 | (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | No | SELL | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0xb85b4f… |
| 05-05 02:30:14 | (anonymous) 0x3b64…5898 | No | BUY | 3 | 74¢ | $2 | 0xed5f4f… |
| 05-04 22:39:56 | Young-Titanium 0x9656…4b6a | Yes | SELL | 749 | 26¢ | $196 | 0x06eb01… |
| 05-04 20:05:50 | Wrathful-Recorder 0x8f73…0546 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xee73f3… |