Unlucky-Role — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved

Trades

469

lifetime

Volume

$1.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 06-05 20:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 52% $-5

Politics

3% — —

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 445 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	+7	$5	84¢	$5	+$0	06-05 20:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	06-03 06:40
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	06-01 12:08
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	+122	$5	3¢	$4	$-1	06-02 07:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	19	$79	132	0	+132	Up	$-1	05-07 00:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	21	$75	90	0	+90	Down	+$8	05-07 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	26	$74	121	0	+121	Down	+$3	05-07 00:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	21	$72	73	0	+73	Down	+$1	05-07 00:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	16	$64	115	0	+115	Up	$-33	05-07 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	15	$62	106	0	+106	Up	+$16	05-07 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	17	$59	121	0	+121	Down	+$5	05-07 00:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	18	$54	99	0	+99	Down	$-2	05-07 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	15	$50	97	0	+97	Up	$-8	05-07 01:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	16	$50	124	0	+124	Up	$-8	05-07 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	14	$47	83	0	+83	Up	+$11	05-07 01:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	15	$43	92	0	+92	Down	+$5	05-07 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	15	$42	90	0	+90	Down	$-3	05-07 01:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	10	$41	64	0	+64	Up	+$15	05-07 01:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	14	$40	45	0	+45	Down	+$1	05-07 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	12	$38	88	0	+88	Up	+$6	05-07 01:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	13	$38	88	0	+88	Down	$-2	05-07 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	14	$36	72	0	+72	Down	$-6	05-07 02:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	12	$34	140	0	+140	Down	$-15	05-07 00:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	14	$33	78	0	+78	Down	$-7	05-07 02:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	14	$28	61	0	+61	Up	$-0	05-07 02:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	11	$26	56	0	+56	Down	$-2	05-07 02:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	12	$23	52	0	+52	Down	+$15	05-07 02:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	13	$22	54	0	+54	Down	+$2	05-07 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	9	$22	68	0	+68	Down	+$5	05-07 00:33
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	7	$18	16	9	+6	open	—	05-26 15:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	1	$16	30	0	+30	Down	+$15	05-07 05:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	9	$15	39	0	+39	Up	$-10	05-07 02:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	6	$13	34	0	+34	Down	$-13	05-07 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	8	$12	29	0	+29	Down	$-2	05-07 03:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 20:48:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x52f227…
06-03 06:40:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb9944b…
06-02 07:33:08	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x692542…
06-01 13:40:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0xb627d4…
06-01 12:08:22	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcc8253…
05-26 15:46:23	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xb8bedf…
05-26 15:34:52	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$0	0x4830e9…
05-26 15:17:59	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xb22f27…
05-26 09:45:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc9975a…
05-26 09:45:20	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xdee4fa…
05-22 11:21:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x213e02…
05-20 07:32:10	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x4154f8…
05-20 04:11:06	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x84831f…
05-19 21:59:41	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe382b0…
05-18 18:32:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x183115…
05-18 10:04:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x203c03…
05-17 21:52:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x26a8a1…
05-17 09:09:13	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x606887…
05-16 16:29:49	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x244b12…
05-07 08:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0x8c456d…
05-07 08:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0dc5cb…
05-07 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfb545a…
05-07 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdad711…
05-07 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6adabc…
05-07 08:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3a2f06…
05-07 08:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2e2cae…
05-07 08:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x6610c1…
05-07 07:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xdf644b…
05-07 06:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x6aadc4…
05-07 06:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0x070cfa…
05-07 06:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5b54ce…
05-07 06:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd11a86…
05-07 06:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x641cad…
05-07 05:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x01c123…
05-07 05:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x303661…
05-07 05:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x94d83f…
05-07 05:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x409e5e…
05-07 05:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xd1bb15…
05-07 05:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0xc3ee20…
05-07 05:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7962ce…
05-07 05:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x33f91d…
05-07 05:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x860fc6…
05-07 05:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4056db…
05-07 05:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x120af6…
05-07 05:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x530b99…
05-07 05:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7dfbb9…
05-07 05:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x64fa7d…
05-07 03:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xa2676c…
05-07 03:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0fd9b3…
05-07 03:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8d08fa…
05-07 03:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xee40f7…
05-07 03:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0x532c39…
05-07 03:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xca26c1…
05-07 03:11:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x2dc4ea…
05-07 03:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x90ec1d…
05-07 03:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xe61b96…
05-07 03:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x4ec053…
05-07 03:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xebfdf2…
05-07 03:10:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfbd2e7…
05-07 03:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x6427b5…
05-07 03:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xdf1145…
05-07 03:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xf4bee1…
05-07 03:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xcf8e81…
05-07 03:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x2fe4f8…
05-07 03:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xcb8aa2…
05-07 03:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$2	0xca75d7…
05-07 03:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x757f80…
05-07 02:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$2	0x6c689e…
05-07 02:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x72ec69…
05-07 02:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xd1976b…
05-07 02:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa396b9…
05-07 02:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0xb50cf2…
05-07 02:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xe759f8…
05-07 02:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xecaceb…
05-07 02:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xb0b177…
05-07 02:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x83c503…
05-07 02:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x1263c7…
05-07 02:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7c05d8…
05-07 02:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xa2c1cc…
05-07 02:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x3fae14…
05-07 02:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xf0066b…
05-07 02:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0xd9f625…
05-07 02:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xaf09f5…
05-07 02:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x6c8793…
05-07 02:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x76a86e…
05-07 02:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0xe90a49…
05-07 02:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x9c5e60…
05-07 02:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xec07c7…
05-07 02:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x890e3e…
05-07 02:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3d8684…
05-07 02:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x629e19…
05-07 02:27:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xe4b35b…
05-07 02:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x380fb5…
05-07 02:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6fe58c…
05-07 02:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x146b2c…
05-07 02:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe61ca4…
05-07 02:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x92bf6e…
05-07 02:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xebfe48…
05-07 02:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa0408a…
05-07 02:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xd0f48b…