Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,263
$8 in 24h
Trades
322
Unique wallets
58
Liquidity
$809
Latest YES mid
72¢
Latest NO mid
28¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-29
last 08-14 23:13
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $34 | $20 | +$14 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $17 | $43 | $26 |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $35 | $197 | $162 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 39 | $148 | $96 | +$51 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $27 | $50 | $22 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $23 | $17 | +$7 |
| Median | 5 | — | $15 | $15 |
| Below median | 6 | — | $45 | $45 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $1 | $9 | $8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $12 | $12 | +$0 |
| unranked | 36 | $169 | $209 | $40 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +62 | $5 | $18 | 10 | 08-14 23:13 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +62 | $16 | $16 | 9 | 08-11 07:26 |
| True-Highlight 0x8030…7b74 | No | +59 | $14 | $48 | 4 | 07-13 12:57 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +41 | $24 | $42 | 20 | 07-27 07:44 |
| Mixed-Mousse 0x82a2…94ed | No | +39 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-27 07:44 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +31 | $18 | $18 | 6 | 08-07 12:39 |
| Required-Saffron 0x328b…fa07 | No | +29 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 08-14 23:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x14af…0b97 | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-12 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x562e…8529 | No | +14 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-24 09:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xcdc0…ea74 | Yes | +12 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-04 23:20 |
| Overcooked-Plowman 0x3373…3716 | No | +10 | $2 | $18 | 4 | 07-21 14:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xde64…cbf5 | No | +9 | $7 | $7 | 3 | 08-05 12:03 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +7 | $1 | $17 | 7 | 06-19 18:42 |
| Perfumed-Pickle 0x7b47…89a5 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-06 06:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x872b…7d66 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-13 22:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x2e59…123e | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 20:02 |
| Content-Lunchroom 0xb1c4…293d | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-14 23:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a4c…f4b8 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-04 23:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xabb6…cfc5 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-10 21:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x66ec…3adf | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-24 09:17 |
| Quick-Witted-Banner 0x6b24…cf25 | No | +1 | $2 | $3 | 3 | 07-24 19:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | No | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-24 19:22 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +1 | $-7 | $36 | 9 | 06-25 00:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb4e…a002 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 00:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +1 | $-3 | $9 | 14 | 07-13 12:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 23:13:52 | Content-Lunchroom 0xb1c4…293d | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x3ec9a2… |
| 08-14 23:13:52 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x3ec9a2… |
| 08-14 23:13:52 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x3ec9a2… |
| 08-14 23:13:52 | Required-Saffron 0x328b…fa07 | No | BUY | 29 | 88¢ | $26 | 0x3ec9a2… |
| 08-14 23:10:45 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x7a663f… |
| 08-14 23:10:45 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x7a663f… |
| 08-14 23:07:04 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x7130d2… |
| 08-14 23:07:04 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x7130d2… |
| 08-11 07:26:46 | Upbeat-Divorce 0xc48e…6590 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x4d9372… |
| 08-11 07:26:46 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x4d9372… |
| 08-07 12:39:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 6 | 46¢ | $3 | 0x77757d… |
| 08-07 12:39:13 | (anonymous) 0x68ad…a8ef | No | SELL | 6 | 46¢ | $3 | 0x77757d… |
| 08-07 12:39:07 | (anonymous) 0x68ad…a8ef | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x133744… |
| 08-07 12:39:07 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x133744… |
| 08-05 12:03:38 | (anonymous) 0xde64…cbf5 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x2157c7… |
| 08-05 12:03:38 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x2157c7… |
| 08-04 23:20:53 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 7 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x595489… |
| 08-04 23:20:53 | (anonymous) 0x5a4c…f4b8 | No | BUY | 5 | 74¢ | $4 | 0x595489… |
| 08-04 23:20:53 | (anonymous) 0xcdc0…ea74 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x595489… |
| 08-03 10:19:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x21d346… |
| 08-03 10:19:44 | (anonymous) 0xd2de…c24c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x21d346… |
| 08-02 22:34:38 | (anonymous) 0xde64…cbf5 | No | BUY | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0x7419a6… |
| 08-02 22:34:38 | (anonymous) 0xd2de…c24c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 38¢ | $1 | 0x7419a6… |
| 08-02 18:52:47 | (anonymous) 0x8710…7619 | No | SELL | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x289a05… |
| 08-02 18:52:47 | (anonymous) 0xde64…cbf5 | No | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x289a05… |
| 08-02 18:16:30 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xde5992… |
| 08-02 18:16:30 | (anonymous) 0x8710…7619 | No | BUY | 2 | 86¢ | $1 | 0xde5992… |
| 07-27 07:44:36 | Mixed-Mousse 0x82a2…94ed | No | BUY | 18 | 28¢ | $5 | 0x075eb7… |
| 07-27 07:44:36 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 4 | 71¢ | $3 | 0x075eb7… |
| 07-27 07:44:07 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0xc16e4f… |
| 07-27 07:44:07 | Mixed-Mousse 0x82a2…94ed | No | BUY | 21 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xc16e4f… |
| 07-24 19:22:00 | Quick-Witted-Banner 0x6b24…cf25 | No | SELL | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xcdab71… |
| 07-24 19:22:00 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xcdab71… |
| 07-24 19:16:49 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x4f5e33… |
| 07-24 19:16:49 | Quick-Witted-Banner 0x6b24…cf25 | No | BUY | 1 | 77¢ | $1 | 0x4f5e33… |
| 07-24 09:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 12 | 26¢ | $3 | 0xa85313… |
| 07-24 09:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x562e…8529 | No | BUY | 14 | 74¢ | $10 | 0xa85313… |
| 07-24 09:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x66ec…3adf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 26¢ | $0 | 0xa85313… |
| 07-23 19:13:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 24¢ | $0 | 0x111d3b… |
| 07-23 19:13:54 | Quick-Witted-Banner 0x6b24…cf25 | No | BUY | 1 | 76¢ | $1 | 0x111d3b… |
| 07-22 04:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | SELL | 6 | 76¢ | $5 | 0x763d0c… |
| 07-22 04:35:54 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 6 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x763d0c… |
| 07-22 03:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x8138…48db | Yes | SELL | 2 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x05f20d… |
| 07-22 03:52:39 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x05f20d… |
| 07-22 03:36:13 | (anonymous) 0x8138…48db | Yes | BUY | 2 | 25¢ | $0 | 0x0b4c60… |
| 07-22 03:36:13 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 2 | 75¢ | $2 | 0x0b4c60… |
| 07-22 02:52:04 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 4 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x2ea635… |
| 07-22 02:52:04 | (anonymous) 0x8138…48db | Yes | SELL | 4 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x2ea635… |
| 07-22 02:51:28 | (anonymous) 0x8138…48db | Yes | BUY | 4 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x6a57ea… |
| 07-22 02:51:28 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 4 | 75¢ | $3 | 0x6a57ea… |
| 07-21 14:23:03 | Overcooked-Plowman 0x3373…3716 | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0xca33d5… |
| 07-21 14:23:03 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xca33d5… |
| 07-18 10:44:42 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | SELL | 0 | 57¢ | $0 | 0xe9c4cd… |
| 07-18 10:44:42 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 0 | 43¢ | $0 | 0xe9c4cd… |
| 07-18 08:34:15 | Scrawny-Goat 0x6466…88dd | Yes | SELL | 8 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x8093ea… |
| 07-18 08:34:15 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | SELL | 8 | 81¢ | $6 | 0x8093ea… |
| 07-18 07:56:33 | Scrawny-Goat 0x6466…88dd | Yes | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x8b0f57… |
| 07-18 07:56:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x8b0f57… |
| 07-18 07:39:25 | Scrawny-Goat 0x6466…88dd | Yes | BUY | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x0e14cd… |
| 07-18 07:39:25 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x0e14cd… |
| 07-13 12:57:19 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 13 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xe45adf… |
| 07-13 12:57:19 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | SELL | 19 | 80¢ | $15 | 0xe45adf… |
| 07-13 12:57:19 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xe45adf… |
| 07-13 12:57:17 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x15b817… |
| 07-13 12:57:17 | True-Highlight 0x8030…7b74 | No | SELL | 15 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x15b817… |
| 07-13 12:55:37 | True-Highlight 0x8030…7b74 | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0xcabe8f… |
| 07-13 12:55:37 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xcabe8f… |
| 07-13 12:32:26 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 0 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xcaebcf… |
| 07-13 12:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 0 | 72¢ | $0 | 0xcaebcf… |
| 07-13 12:32:20 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xff1b66… |
| 07-13 12:32:20 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 1 | 72¢ | $1 | 0xff1b66… |
| 07-13 12:31:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 75¢ | $4 | 0x9feb0e… |
| 07-13 12:31:44 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 5 | 75¢ | $4 | 0x9feb0e… |
| 07-13 12:31:40 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xbe6469… |
| 07-13 12:31:40 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xbe6469… |
| 07-13 12:31:40 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xbe6469… |
| 07-13 12:29:37 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xb6b4a6… |
| 07-13 12:29:37 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 9 | 37¢ | $3 | 0xb6b4a6… |
| 07-13 12:29:20 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0xda7002… |
| 07-13 12:29:20 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0xda7002… |
| 07-13 12:28:49 | Overcooked-Plowman 0x3373…3716 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $2 | 0x871fd0… |
| 07-13 12:28:49 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xbb3ee9… |
| 07-13 12:28:49 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xbb3ee9… |
| 07-13 12:28:49 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $2 | 0x871fd0… |
| 07-13 12:28:47 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x3e2198… |
| 07-13 12:28:47 | Overcooked-Plowman 0x3373…3716 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x3e2198… |
| 07-13 12:28:41 | True-Highlight 0x8030…7b74 | No | BUY | 24 | 39¢ | $9 | 0x501aa6… |
| 07-13 12:28:41 | Overcooked-Plowman 0x3373…3716 | No | BUY | 10 | 52¢ | $5 | 0x501aa6… |
| 07-13 12:28:41 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 33 | 43¢ | $14 | 0x501aa6… |
| 07-13 12:28:35 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xc45fd6… |
| 07-13 12:28:35 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xc45fd6… |
| 07-13 12:28:35 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xc45fd6… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | BUY | 27 | 44¢ | $12 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 60¢ | $11 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | True-Highlight 0x8030…7b74 | No | BUY | 56 | 39¢ | $22 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | SELL | 111 | 44¢ | $49 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:22 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x35f486… |
| 07-13 12:28:17 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xa37355… |
| 07-13 12:28:17 | (anonymous) 0xf1a1…2849 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xa37355… |