Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$587
$8 in 24h
Trades
109
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$809
Latest YES mid
20¢
Latest NO mid
80¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-29
last 06-25 21:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $32 | $8 | +$24 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $6 | $19 | $13 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 22 | $90 | $46 | +$44 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $18 | $6 | +$12 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $23 | $7 | +$17 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 3 | — | $5 | $5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $1 | $9 | $8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $11 | — | +$11 |
| unranked | 22 | $90 | $46 | +$44 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +46 | $14 | $14 | 5 | 06-18 04:07 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-19 18:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x14af…0b97 | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-12 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | +16 | $1 | $7 | 7 | 06-25 21:16 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +11 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 05-30 13:02 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +9 | $1 | $4 | 6 | 06-16 13:49 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +7 | $1 | $17 | 7 | 06-19 18:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x872b…7d66 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-13 22:18 |
| Perfumed-Pickle 0x7b47…89a5 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-06 06:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x2e59…123e | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 20:02 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +1 | $-7 | $36 | 9 | 06-25 00:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb4e…a002 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 00:11 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 21:16:02 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x8ab642… |
| 06-25 21:16:02 | (anonymous) 0x78c4…7071 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x8ab642… |
| 06-25 20:29:52 | (anonymous) 0x78c4…7071 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x33a925… |
| 06-25 20:29:52 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x33a925… |
| 06-25 00:11:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xf44926… |
| 06-25 00:11:19 | (anonymous) 0xbb4e…a002 | No | BUY | 1 | 85¢ | $1 | 0xf44926… |
| 06-22 19:41:35 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 6 | 86¢ | $5 | 0x1887e8… |
| 06-22 19:41:35 | (anonymous) 0x127a…f0c6 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x1887e8… |
| 06-20 13:08:08 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x4c897f… |
| 06-20 13:08:08 | (anonymous) 0x127a…f0c6 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x4c897f… |
| 06-20 03:50:32 | Unusual-Borrowing 0xb330…6f3f | No | SELL | 1 | 71¢ | $1 | 0x06b454… |
| 06-20 03:50:32 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 29¢ | $0 | 0x06b454… |
| 06-19 18:42:23 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | BUY | 25 | 78¢ | $20 | 0x162cf9… |
| 06-19 18:42:23 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x162cf9… |
| 06-19 18:42:23 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x162cf9… |
| 06-18 04:07:37 | (anonymous) 0xd4df…e9e7 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xaeab14… |
| 06-18 04:07:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xaeab14… |
| 06-16 13:49:08 | (anonymous) 0x8e78…39eb | Yes | SELL | 17 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xe25ecb… |
| 06-16 13:49:08 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe25ecb… |
| 06-16 13:49:08 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 12 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe25ecb… |
| 06-15 22:38:48 | Ambitious-Toot 0x2ea9…7927 | No | SELL | 3 | 73¢ | $2 | 0x0e9c03… |
| 06-15 22:38:48 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 3 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x0e9c03… |
| 06-15 19:38:37 | (anonymous) 0x2d20…eb64 | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0xab8302… |
| 06-15 19:38:37 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xab8302… |
| 06-15 07:57:13 | (anonymous) 0xac73…aa7b | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xe6270f… |
| 06-15 07:57:13 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 4 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xe6270f… |
| 06-15 07:57:13 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 30¢ | $0 | 0xe6270f… |
| 06-13 22:18:25 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xbdf73f… |
| 06-13 22:18:25 | (anonymous) 0x872b…7d66 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xbdf73f… |
| 06-12 22:42:12 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 3 | 86¢ | $3 | 0x0c252e… |
| 06-12 22:42:12 | Ambitious-Toot 0x2ea9…7927 | No | BUY | 3 | 86¢ | $3 | 0x0c252e… |
| 06-12 14:03:42 | (anonymous) 0x8e78…39eb | Yes | SELL | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0xdf6453… |
| 06-12 14:03:42 | (anonymous) 0xd4df…e9e7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0xdf6453… |
| 06-12 13:03:57 | (anonymous) 0x14af…0b97 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xebb6de… |
| 06-12 13:03:57 | Knowledgeable-Masonry 0x6eb0…766a | Yes | SELL | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xebb6de… |
| 06-12 12:59:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x982b7b… |
| 06-12 12:59:18 | (anonymous) 0x14af…0b97 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x982b7b… |
| 06-12 09:19:48 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xde1f15… |
| 06-12 09:19:48 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | SELL | 33 | 14¢ | $5 | 0xde1f15… |
| 06-12 09:19:48 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 22 | 86¢ | $19 | 0xde1f15… |
| 06-12 09:12:55 | (anonymous) 0x8e78…39eb | Yes | SELL | 3 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xbf0373… |
| 06-12 09:12:55 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xbf0373… |
| 06-12 09:12:25 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | SELL | 4 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x453585… |
| 06-12 09:12:25 | (anonymous) 0x8e78…39eb | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x453585… |
| 06-12 09:12:25 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x453585… |
| 06-12 00:07:42 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x87bc05… |
| 06-12 00:07:42 | Knowledgeable-Masonry 0x6eb0…766a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x87bc05… |
| 06-07 20:33:37 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xc76560… |
| 06-07 20:33:37 | (anonymous) 0x8d24…f046 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xc76560… |
| 06-07 20:28:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 7 | 29¢ | $2 | 0x7251e0… |
| 06-07 20:28:19 | (anonymous) 0x8d24…f046 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 29¢ | $2 | 0x7251e0… |
| 06-07 20:02:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 29¢ | $1 | 0x5f8b91… |
| 06-07 20:02:01 | (anonymous) 0x2e59…123e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 29¢ | $1 | 0x5f8b91… |
| 06-06 11:35:10 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xe0fa5b… |
| 06-06 11:35:10 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 31 | 81¢ | $25 | 0xe0fa5b… |
| 06-06 06:41:31 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 16 | 81¢ | $13 | 0x4617fe… |
| 06-06 06:41:31 | Our-Handle 0xcadb…794a | Yes | SELL | 16 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x4617fe… |
| 06-06 06:31:45 | Perfumed-Pickle 0x7b47…89a5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 25¢ | $1 | 0xd1422a… |
| 06-06 06:31:45 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 25¢ | $1 | 0xd1422a… |
| 06-02 00:24:49 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | SELL | 120 | 79¢ | $95 | 0x774e5e… |
| 06-02 00:24:49 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 23¢ | $7 | 0x774e5e… |
| 06-02 00:24:49 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | No | SELL | 17 | 77¢ | $13 | 0x774e5e… |
| 06-02 00:24:49 | Brief-Eyelashes 0x326b…33eb | Yes | SELL | 167 | 22¢ | $36 | 0x774e5e… |
| 05-31 08:59:35 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x151b97… |
| 05-31 08:59:35 | Submissive-Pupa 0x8122…4ced | No | SELL | 1 | 57¢ | $1 | 0x151b97… |
| 05-31 02:04:43 | Submissive-Pupa 0x8122…4ced | No | BUY | 1 | 73¢ | $1 | 0xf06646… |
| 05-31 02:04:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 27¢ | $0 | 0xf06646… |
| 05-31 00:16:51 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | SELL | 57 | 25¢ | $15 | 0x2d1613… |
| 05-31 00:16:51 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 23¢ | $7 | 0x2d1613… |
| 05-31 00:16:51 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 7 | 28¢ | $2 | 0x2d1613… |
| 05-31 00:16:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 28¢ | $5 | 0x2d1613… |
| 05-30 13:02:01 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 44¢ | $4 | 0x68156d… |
| 05-30 13:02:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 4 | 56¢ | $2 | 0x68156d… |
| 05-30 13:02:01 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 44¢ | $3 | 0x68156d… |
| 05-30 13:01:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 44¢ | $4 | 0x865d71… |
| 05-30 13:01:51 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 44¢ | $4 | 0x865d71… |
| 05-30 13:01:39 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 44¢ | $4 | 0x043713… |
| 05-30 13:01:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 44¢ | $4 | 0x043713… |
| 05-30 13:01:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 43¢ | $9 | 0xbe46ea… |
| 05-30 13:01:39 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 43¢ | $4 | 0xbe46ea… |
| 05-30 13:01:05 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 43¢ | $3 | 0x07671a… |
| 05-30 13:01:05 | Inexperienced-Grand 0xb02c…0657 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 43¢ | $3 | 0x07671a… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Faint-Football-Aglet 0xd62e…fed4 | Yes | SELL | 88 | 26¢ | $23 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 25¢ | $8 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 24¢ | $4 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 8 | 74¢ | $6 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | BUY | 6 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 16 | 72¢ | $12 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-30 00:12:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0x034a80… |
| 05-29 19:19:55 | Lawful-Arithmetic 0xe699…8790 | No | BUY | 40 | 64¢ | $26 | 0xb760ad… |
| 05-29 19:19:55 | Ultimate-Rostrum 0x9b43…33ce | No | SELL | 9 | 65¢ | $6 | 0xb760ad… |
| 05-29 19:19:55 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 36¢ | $5 | 0xb760ad… |
| 05-29 19:19:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 36¢ | $6 | 0xb760ad… |
| 05-29 17:31:50 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 3 | 57¢ | $2 | 0xa60150… |
| 05-29 17:31:50 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | SELL | 3 | 57¢ | $2 | 0xa60150… |
| 05-29 16:45:32 | Ultimate-Rostrum 0x9b43…33ce | No | BUY | 9 | 57¢ | $5 | 0x835e17… |
| 05-29 16:45:32 | Our-Handle 0xcadb…794a | Yes | BUY | 9 | 43¢ | $4 | 0x835e17… |
| 05-29 14:43:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 55¢ | $4 | 0xfaf41c… |
| 05-29 14:43:37 | Our-Handle 0xcadb…794a | Yes | BUY | 7 | 45¢ | $3 | 0xfaf41c… |
| 05-29 14:29:29 | Tepid-Lookout 0x432c…e67a | Yes | SELL | 29 | 39¢ | $11 | 0x2beba5… |