Required-Saffron — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

Trades

351

lifetime

Volume

$4.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 08-10 03:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

58% 20% $-31

Politics

32% 100% +$2

Tech

5% — —

Sports

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $-7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$102	1,148	1,022	+126	open	—	06-09 17:17
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	6	$99	85	85	+0	open	—	05-31 22:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$66	36	36	+0	open	—	06-28 05:48
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	5	$64	37	37	+0	open	—	05-28 03:52
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	3	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	07-04 13:11
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-28 04:52
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31?	2	$62	33	33	+0	open	—	05-31 16:47
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	10	$62	844	800	+44	open	—	07-06 15:18
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	4	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	06-01 06:01
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	2	$60	43	43	+0	open	—	05-15 14:26
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	3	$54	37	37	+0	No	+$20	05-08 20:50
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	4	$51	21	31	-10	open	—	05-28 20:45
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$51	21	31	-10	open	—	05-23 21:54
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?	2	$45	35	18	+18	open	—	05-15 20:23
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	2	$45	36	18	+18	open	—	05-09 12:21
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	3	$45	30	30	+0	open	—	05-31 21:14
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	05-31 17:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	2	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	05-29 08:20
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-30 09:27
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-20 01:39
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	3	$40	51	51	+0	open	—	04-30 16:36
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	3	$36	115	110	+5	open	—	07-05 22:13
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	1	$34	0	34	-34	open	—	07-04 01:59
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	2	$30	354	0	+354	open	—	06-03 13:33
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?	1	$30	50	0	+50	open	—	06-05 05:32
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	3	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	07-10 15:14
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	1	$30	78	0	+78	open	—	07-02 17:07
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	1	$30	37	0	+37	open	—	07-06 06:17
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	1	$30	40	0	+40	open	—	07-06 05:11
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	1	$30	34	0	+34	open	—	07-04 06:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 03:36:09	Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	82¢	$27	0xeda49d…
08-09 23:12:39	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	BUY	138	21¢	$29	0xf373e9…
08-09 12:27:07	Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0xeed766…
08-09 03:23:00	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x93551a…
08-08 16:11:52	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0x32b806…
08-08 03:17:49	Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x641133…
08-07 23:53:10	Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x51dea6…
08-07 23:23:07	Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xcaa703…
08-07 23:14:55	Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0xad5701…
08-07 19:23:24	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x4ce013…
08-06 20:55:30	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	BUY	31	92¢	$29	0x99c7c8…
08-06 18:19:48	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0xa64a1c…
08-06 17:19:41	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xcaa8e1…
08-06 17:19:39	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x1f2cf1…
08-06 09:01:15	Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x497e2e…
08-06 08:56:26	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x86d39a…
08-05 19:24:48	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x90613b…
08-05 12:51:41	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0xff8c35…
08-04 20:17:39	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xc4a9fa…
08-04 04:44:35	Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?	No	BUY	55	52¢	$29	0x74c262…
08-03 12:37:50	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0xf4c422…
08-03 12:37:48	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	73	39¢	$29	0xe6f559…
08-03 12:18:38	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xaaaf94…
08-03 07:21:57	New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0xffbe9b…
08-03 03:56:08	Another US debt downgrade before 2027?	No	BUY	37	79¢	$29	0x730cd3…
07-23 15:23:19	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	No	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0xba8a92…
07-20 11:33:12	Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	82	10¢	$8	0xf2c9c9…
07-20 04:40:12	Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xe5b7bf…
07-18 17:29:16	Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x8a3bf4…
07-18 03:40:15	Blue wave in 2026?	No	BUY	122	24¢	$29	0xd06336…
07-16 17:00:34	Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	101	29¢	$29	0x663a20…
07-15 10:42:44	Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x8afeb4…
07-15 04:27:02	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xa33301…
07-15 03:40:08	Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	136	10¢	$13	0x0cde53…
07-15 00:00:58	Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8b210a…
07-14 10:26:11	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xda1ba2…
07-14 07:23:17	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xb45c52…
07-14 05:58:53	Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xa4598b…
07-13 20:50:26	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0x33f97c…
07-13 20:37:10	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0xead1e3…
07-13 19:17:37	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x80410c…
07-13 12:54:13	Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0x9f2ecd…
07-12 23:03:19	U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	BUY	24	89¢	$21	0x0e261a…
07-12 20:50:28	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0xb63f61…
07-12 20:26:08	Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x240a96…
07-12 18:05:17	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xf26a69…
07-12 17:46:47	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x1d2f69…
07-12 16:15:05	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x6133ec…
07-12 16:09:07	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xcb6a90…
07-12 15:23:47	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0xd178ba…
07-12 15:23:14	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x237438…
07-12 15:19:25	Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xd9f7f1…
07-12 15:04:37	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xb7c1b6…
07-12 14:58:37	Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0xc86fcb…
07-12 14:57:46	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0xa0c230…
07-12 12:42:23	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	81¢	$29	0x9c296d…
07-12 11:50:38	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x1b4fcd…
07-12 11:45:52	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0x277e1f…
07-12 11:34:59	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0x025e7f…
07-12 11:14:19	Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xb28bfd…
07-12 02:29:56	Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x266081…
07-11 19:31:10	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x630d53…
07-11 16:12:22	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x112509…
07-11 15:48:53	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x9f8c0d…
07-11 06:50:13	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x7f1363…
07-10 22:40:14	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xc8c37c…
07-10 22:28:01	AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?	No	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0x69bf23…
07-10 22:21:22	AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?	No	BUY	45	34¢	$15	0x1842ab…
07-10 21:27:02	AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?	No	BUY	23	34¢	$8	0x272bab…
07-10 19:16:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xe0fdab…
07-10 19:15:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$15	0x212a54…
07-10 15:14:53	Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	No	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x034530…
07-10 15:04:23	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	BUY	34	86¢	$29	0x627acc…
07-10 13:57:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x8146ff…
07-10 13:50:50	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xaa3ba1…
07-10 12:36:40	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x27a694…
07-10 12:01:38	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x768310…
07-10 11:32:44	Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xd6b74a…
07-10 11:25:05	Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?	No	BUY	37	80¢	$29	0x5e4c23…
07-10 10:24:05	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x75c964…
07-10 10:21:20	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	44	52¢	$23	0xf98e5f…
07-09 22:07:31	Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x2d2abc…
07-08 21:15:59	Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x629fc9…
07-07 20:19:29	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xb4acec…
07-07 08:36:19	Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	16¢	$18	0x530ba0…
07-06 20:59:58	Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	16¢	$10	0x34c5a2…
07-06 16:03:53	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x051d7b…
07-06 15:18:17	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	63	4¢	$3	0x6996ea…
07-06 10:35:56	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$25	0xa47e99…
07-06 09:15:56	Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?	No	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xbe28cf…
07-06 07:21:38	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xe140fa…
07-06 06:31:25	Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x6e3262…
07-06 06:17:41	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0x7cefe4…
07-06 05:11:26	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xe37a99…
07-06 03:09:01	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x5eb87a…
07-06 03:00:35	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	82	4¢	$3	0x71a585…
07-06 00:42:46	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x86f3d7…
07-06 00:27:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x2bdcf4…
07-05 23:47:17	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	154	4¢	$6	0x8a5dee…
07-05 23:45:08	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	251	4¢	$10	0x5f05dc…