Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,851
$36 in 24h
Trades
183
Unique wallets
41
Liquidity
$4,333
Latest YES mid
18¢
Latest NO mid
82¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 08-20 07:49
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-13.0¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $201
vs crowd: 13% YES on $1.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $55 | $353 | $298 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $22 | $527 | $505 |
| 🐟 Fish | 13 | $95 | $280 | $185 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 14 | $19 | $108 | $89 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $201 | $201 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $51 | $207 | $156 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | $158 | $157 |
| Median | 5 | $6 | $111 | $106 |
| Below median | 7 | $90 | $98 | $7 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | — | $332 | $332 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $5 | $136 | $131 |
| unranked | 12 | $21 | $23 | $2 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | +416 | $330 | $330 | 11 | 08-07 18:35 |
| Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | Yes | +294 | $82 | $82 | 2 | 06-03 05:02 |
| Daring-Whirlwind 0x4732…2f88 | No | +279 | $201 | $201 | 2 | 06-03 05:02 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +255 | $206 | $206 | 9 | 08-06 19:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +166 | $49 | $49 | 5 | 08-06 17:19 |
| Dear-Acoustics 0x90f7…2501 | No | +165 | $132 | $132 | 3 | 06-22 15:17 |
| Required-Saffron 0x328b…fa07 | No | +37 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 08-03 03:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | +18 | $2 | $15 | 12 | 08-07 17:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +15 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-07 14:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | +12 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-19 11:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +11 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 08-07 19:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-19 16:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-06 11:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 18:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-20 07:49 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-19 00:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +5 | $4 | $107 | 10 | 07-30 13:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-13 15:24 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +3 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 07-30 22:49 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-22 04:53 |
| Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | +2 | $4 | $10 | 3 | 06-16 04:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 07:49:18 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x47aa88… |
| 08-20 07:49:18 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x47aa88… |
| 08-13 15:24:45 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xbc8167… |
| 08-13 15:24:45 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xbc8167… |
| 08-07 19:10:19 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x715f91… |
| 08-07 19:10:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 83¢ | $25 | 0x715f91… |
| 08-07 19:10:19 | Occasional-Constitution 0x958d…3501 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 17¢ | $6 | 0x715f91… |
| 08-07 18:35:24 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 65 | 80¢ | $52 | 0xefce16… |
| 08-07 18:35:24 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 35 | 80¢ | $28 | 0xefce16… |
| 08-07 18:35:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 81¢ | $24 | 0xefce16… |
| 08-07 17:33:33 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 2 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd264dc… |
| 08-07 17:33:33 | Occasional-Constitution 0x958d…3501 | Yes | SELL | 73 | 17¢ | $12 | 0xd264dc… |
| 08-07 17:33:33 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 11 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xd264dc… |
| 08-07 17:33:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 60 | 83¢ | $50 | 0xd264dc… |
| 08-07 14:49:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x818c32… |
| 08-07 14:49:01 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x818c32… |
| 08-07 14:48:51 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xd56ea6… |
| 08-07 14:48:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xd56ea6… |
| 08-07 14:48:51 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 39 | 80¢ | $31 | 0xd56ea6… |
| 08-07 14:48:37 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x3a3b95… |
| 08-07 14:48:37 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x3a3b95… |
| 08-07 13:36:25 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x72ec0a… |
| 08-07 13:36:25 | Occasional-Constitution 0x958d…3501 | Yes | SELL | 114 | 16¢ | $18 | 0x72ec0a… |
| 08-07 13:36:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 53 | 84¢ | $44 | 0x72ec0a… |
| 08-07 13:36:25 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 50 | 85¢ | $42 | 0x72ec0a… |
| 08-07 13:35:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 7 | 84¢ | $6 | 0x606629… |
| 08-07 13:35:24 | Occasional-Constitution 0x958d…3501 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x606629… |
| 08-07 13:35:24 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 11 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x606629… |
| 08-07 11:28:28 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 60 | 79¢ | $47 | 0x32ca13… |
| 08-07 11:28:28 | (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x32ca13… |
| 08-07 11:28:28 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 79¢ | $40 | 0x32ca13… |
| 08-07 11:26:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x5950c5… |
| 08-07 11:26:46 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x5950c5… |
| 08-07 11:26:37 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x85462b… |
| 08-07 11:26:37 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x85462b… |
| 08-06 19:37:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x56fa95… |
| 08-06 19:37:27 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x56fa95… |
| 08-06 17:19:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 13¢ | $2 | 0x1c7ef8… |
| 08-06 17:19:00 | Occasional-Constitution 0x958d…3501 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 13¢ | $2 | 0x1c7ef8… |
| 08-06 17:15:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 104 | 81¢ | $84 | 0xaf15c3… |
| 08-06 17:15:57 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 104 | 81¢ | $84 | 0xaf15c3… |
| 08-06 17:14:42 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x3fee9e… |
| 08-06 17:14:42 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x3fee9e… |
| 08-06 11:10:44 | (anonymous) 0x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xe425e0… |
| 08-06 11:10:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 8 | 82¢ | $7 | 0xe425e0… |
| 08-05 15:18:17 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xdf07d2… |
| 08-05 15:18:17 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xdf07d2… |
| 08-05 09:28:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x085883… |
| 08-05 09:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x085883… |
| 08-05 09:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x085883… |
| 08-05 09:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x085883… |
| 08-05 08:45:47 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x33eb45… |
| 08-05 08:45:47 | (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x33eb45… |
| 08-05 08:04:05 | (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xfb26bf… |
| 08-05 08:04:05 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xfb26bf… |
| 08-05 07:15:30 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 50 | 83¢ | $42 | 0x874e7e… |
| 08-05 07:15:30 | Sharp-Stepson 0x023d…c5d0 | No | SELL | 50 | 83¢ | $42 | 0x874e7e… |
| 08-03 03:56:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0xa5c6d1… |
| 08-03 03:56:20 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0xa5c6d1… |
| 08-03 03:56:08 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 94 | 79¢ | $74 | 0x730cd3… |
| 08-03 03:56:08 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x730cd3… |
| 08-03 03:56:08 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 79¢ | $40 | 0x730cd3… |
| 08-03 03:56:08 | Required-Saffron 0x328b…fa07 | No | BUY | 37 | 79¢ | $29 | 0x730cd3… |
| 08-03 03:41:56 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7e85ec… |
| 08-03 03:41:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x7e85ec… |
| 08-03 03:33:11 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x6bea1c… |
| 08-03 03:33:11 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x6bea1c… |
| 08-03 03:31:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 81¢ | $6 | 0x53dc97… |
| 08-03 03:31:56 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x53dc97… |
| 08-03 03:30:42 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x184ea5… |
| 08-03 03:30:42 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0x184ea5… |
| 08-03 03:30:29 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x62afd9… |
| 08-03 03:30:29 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x62afd9… |
| 08-03 03:30:09 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x6bb012… |
| 08-03 03:30:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x6bb012… |
| 08-03 03:27:57 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xf28764… |
| 08-03 03:27:57 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xf28764… |
| 08-01 02:33:14 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 50 | 76¢ | $38 | 0x3d50c2… |
| 08-01 02:33:14 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 50 | 76¢ | $38 | 0x3d50c2… |
| 08-01 02:31:27 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 39 | 76¢ | $29 | 0x633d20… |
| 08-01 02:31:27 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 39 | 76¢ | $29 | 0x633d20… |
| 07-31 08:38:48 | Ready-Jungle 0xdac4…a8c9 | No | SELL | 7 | 85¢ | $6 | 0x292aa4… |
| 07-31 08:38:48 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x292aa4… |
| 07-30 22:49:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x335ddf… |
| 07-30 22:49:15 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x335ddf… |
| 07-30 22:49:14 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 2 | 83¢ | $2 | 0x5095d7… |
| 07-30 22:49:14 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 2 | 83¢ | $2 | 0x5095d7… |
| 07-30 16:30:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x455cf4… |
| 07-30 16:30:00 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 10 | 88¢ | $9 | 0x455cf4… |
| 07-30 13:56:33 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x57a0bc… |
| 07-30 13:56:33 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | SELL | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0x57a0bc… |
| 07-30 13:56:33 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | Yes | SELL | 12 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x57a0bc… |
| 07-24 16:47:28 | Golden-Antechamber 0xbae5…45e3 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x359121… |
| 07-24 16:47:28 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | Yes | BUY | 12 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x359121… |
| 07-19 11:24:04 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x401fe9… |
| 07-19 11:24:04 | Murky-Freak 0x9998…e858 | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x401fe9… |
| 07-19 11:24:04 | (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | BUY | 12 | 79¢ | $9 | 0x401fe9… |
| 07-19 11:24:04 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x401fe9… |
| 07-19 00:22:54 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xe187cf… |
| 07-19 00:22:54 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xe187cf… |