Realized P&L
-$22
Unrealized P&L
-$7
Hit rate
44.8%
Resolved
57
Trades
305
lifetime
Volume
$563
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$14
10 positions
First seen
2026-08-03
last 08-09 01:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Other
79% 30% -$24
Politics
14% 75% +$0
Sports
3% 67% +$2
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
2 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$1 08-07 16:07
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +5 $2 70¢ $4 +$2 08-07 00:10
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Yes +3 $2 40¢ $1 -$1 08-06 18:41
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +5 $2 22¢ $1 -$1 08-07 18:47
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $2 16¢ $1 -$2 08-06 08:49
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes +10 $1 8¢ $1 $0 08-06 00:02
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes +3 $1 23¢ $1 -$1 08-08 16:29
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +5 $1 9¢ $0 $0 08-07 04:34
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes +10 $6 4¢ $0 -$5 08-06 21:12
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes +5 $1 3¢ $0 $0 08-05 21:55