Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$6,723
$23 in 24h
Trades
393
Unique wallets
113
Liquidity
$5,716
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-09 22:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-17.9¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $714
vs crowd: 18% YES on $3.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 13 | $114 | $388 | $274 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 20 | $100 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| 🐟 Fish | 21 | $88 | $288 | $200 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 59 | $251 | $688 | $438 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $2 | $712 | $711 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $55 | $7 | +$48 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $18 | $370 | $352 |
| Median | 8 | $4 | $102 | $99 |
| Below median | 14 | $37 | $27 | +$10 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | — | $116 | $116 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $16 | $11 | +$5 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $64 | $283 | $218 |
| unranked | 64 | $357 | $861 | $504 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +802 | $673 | $737 | 2 | 07-09 03:03 |
| Fabulous-Online 0x3a8a…7699 | No | +377 | $283 | $283 | 2 | 06-15 05:03 |
| Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | +329 | $75 | $75 | 3 | 06-08 10:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xc338…9f86 | No | +140 | $118 | $118 | 2 | 07-15 03:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x6255…900b | Yes | +105 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 07-14 02:30 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +86 | $40 | $40 | 5 | 06-02 23:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x932f…77a6 | No | +69 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 05-31 17:11 |
| Unselfish-Hometown 0x81e7…7389 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 06-18 03:00 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | +32 | $2 | $34 | 14 | 08-09 22:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-21 15:18 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +29 | $11 | $24 | 5 | 06-18 03:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | +25 | $3 | $498 | 11 | 07-10 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +21 | $3 | $3 | 5 | 08-01 13:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-19 23:30 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 05-30 20:09 |
| Made-Up-Jaw 0xe5aa…87ac | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x61a6…5877 | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-20 11:32 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +12 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 08-04 16:06 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-15 05:03 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-10 16:38 |
| Vivid-Departure 0x2e34…9434 | No | +10 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-02 23:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +10 | $8 | $88 | 5 | 07-14 15:19 |
| Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-02 07:04 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-14 23:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xe59a…8328 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-04 23:20 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-24 00:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-05 21:55 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-05 21:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-03 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +4 | $1 | $12 | 6 | 06-17 21:37 |
| Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | +4 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-02 23:40 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | +4 | $-0 | $54 | 27 | 07-30 22:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +2 | $2 | $18 | 5 | 07-14 15:19 |
| Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | Yes | +1 | $-22 | $122 | 21 | 06-02 23:38 |
| Studious-Windchime 0x21ff…5e2a | Yes | +1 | $-0 | $3 | 2 | 08-09 10:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xd2c5…91d7 | No | +1 | $2 | $48 | 3 | 07-10 17:05 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 22:17:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xcbff97… |
| 08-09 22:17:00 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xcbff97… |
| 08-09 10:21:54 | Studious-Windchime 0x21ff…5e2a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x70a37e… |
| 08-09 10:21:54 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x70a37e… |
| 08-05 21:55:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x7c153d… |
| 08-05 21:55:26 | (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x7c153d… |
| 08-04 16:06:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x20766b… |
| 08-04 16:06:12 | (anonymous) 0xd990…749e | No | SELL | 0 | 85¢ | $0 | 0x20766b… |
| 08-04 16:06:12 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 0 | 92¢ | $0 | 0x20766b… |
| 08-03 22:01:15 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x5b1bc8… |
| 08-03 22:01:15 | Studious-Windchime 0x21ff…5e2a | Yes | BUY | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x5b1bc8… |
| 08-03 22:01:15 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 7 | 92¢ | $6 | 0x5b1bc8… |
| 08-03 10:50:33 | (anonymous) 0x8d09…2e04 | No | SELL | 23 | 91¢ | $21 | 0x8cde03… |
| 08-03 10:50:33 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x8cde03… |
| 08-01 13:01:50 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xedd162… |
| 08-01 13:01:50 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0xedd162… |
| 07-31 16:22:42 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0xfe6000… |
| 07-31 16:22:42 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xfe6000… |
| 07-30 22:44:53 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x327775… |
| 07-30 22:44:53 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x327775… |
| 07-24 10:10:12 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xf2bed1… |
| 07-24 10:10:12 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xf2bed1… |
| 07-24 00:42:01 | Appropriate-Handrail 0x2aae…a80c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf7b925… |
| 07-24 00:42:01 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf7b925… |
| 07-22 17:24:52 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x474ae5… |
| 07-22 17:24:52 | Euphoric-Headline 0x377d…dddd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x474ae5… |
| 07-22 07:51:12 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xe7ea53… |
| 07-22 07:51:12 | Testy-Operator 0x80a4…22cc | No | SELL | 4 | 87¢ | $3 | 0xe7ea53… |
| 07-22 07:51:12 | Misty-Story 0x3f52…43de | Yes | SELL | 22 | 14¢ | $3 | 0xe7ea53… |
| 07-22 07:51:12 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xe7ea53… |
| 07-22 07:51:12 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xe7ea53… |
| 07-16 19:09:46 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 49 | 20¢ | $10 | 0xcff50a… |
| 07-16 19:09:46 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xcff50a… |
| 07-16 19:09:46 | (anonymous) 0xc6d0…4bad | Yes | SELL | 150 | 21¢ | $32 | 0xcff50a… |
| 07-16 19:09:46 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | SELL | 209 | 79¢ | $166 | 0xcff50a… |
| 07-16 19:09:46 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xcff50a… |
| 07-15 03:35:49 | (anonymous) 0x8dae…f841 | No | SELL | 75 | 84¢ | $63 | 0x943bed… |
| 07-15 03:35:49 | (anonymous) 0xc338…9f86 | No | BUY | 75 | 84¢ | $63 | 0x943bed… |
| 07-15 03:34:17 | (anonymous) 0xc338…9f86 | No | BUY | 65 | 84¢ | $55 | 0x18f6a3… |
| 07-15 03:34:17 | (anonymous) 0x47b3…5fa4 | No | SELL | 65 | 84¢ | $55 | 0x18f6a3… |
| 07-14 15:19:25 | Tangible-Ingrate 0x9cbb…dab4 | No | SELL | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0x362ce6… |
| 07-14 15:19:25 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x362ce6… |
| 07-14 15:19:25 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x362ce6… |
| 07-14 02:30:11 | (anonymous) 0x6255…900b | Yes | BUY | 45 | 18¢ | $8 | 0xb3ec68… |
| 07-14 02:30:11 | (anonymous) 0x21ca…2a26 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 18¢ | $8 | 0xb3ec68… |
| 07-14 02:28:32 | (anonymous) 0xa5ea…3ae4 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 18¢ | $11 | 0xc0854d… |
| 07-14 02:28:32 | (anonymous) 0x6255…900b | Yes | BUY | 60 | 18¢ | $11 | 0xc0854d… |
| 07-13 16:53:04 | Grubby-Mall 0xa309…4cf2 | No | SELL | 277 | 83¢ | $230 | 0xb41294… |
| 07-13 16:53:04 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 277 | 17¢ | $47 | 0xb41294… |
| 07-13 15:24:35 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0xfb0eda… |
| 07-13 15:24:35 | Tangible-Ingrate 0x9cbb…dab4 | No | BUY | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xfb0eda… |
| 07-13 15:24:35 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xfb0eda… |
| 07-12 12:06:56 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x3e713f… |
| 07-12 12:06:56 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x3e713f… |
| 07-12 12:03:19 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x2ed2ec… |
| 07-12 12:03:19 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x2ed2ec… |
| 07-12 08:59:52 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 2 | 84¢ | $2 | 0xff33b8… |
| 07-12 08:59:52 | (anonymous) 0x067a…3821 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 16¢ | $0 | 0xff33b8… |
| 07-12 08:59:50 | (anonymous) 0x067a…3821 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x9ce4be… |
| 07-12 08:59:50 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 3 | 84¢ | $3 | 0x9ce4be… |
| 07-11 23:44:56 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x75d03a… |
| 07-11 23:44:56 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x75d03a… |
| 07-10 23:38:08 | Odd-Relish 0xe2b4…3c5a | No | SELL | 102 | 83¢ | $85 | 0x1359f9… |
| 07-10 23:38:08 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 102 | 17¢ | $17 | 0x1359f9… |
| 07-10 22:02:37 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 8 | 84¢ | $7 | 0xd0b9c7… |
| 07-10 22:02:37 | (anonymous) 0xdb2d…1dc7 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xd0b9c7… |
| 07-10 20:30:32 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 15 | 84¢ | $12 | 0x919008… |
| 07-10 20:30:32 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x919008… |
| 07-10 20:27:35 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 34 | 83¢ | $28 | 0xe52fe0… |
| 07-10 20:27:35 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 17¢ | $6 | 0xe52fe0… |
| 07-10 20:27:29 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 17¢ | $8 | 0x04705f… |
| 07-10 20:27:29 | (anonymous) 0xedee…67e6 | No | SELL | 50 | 83¢ | $42 | 0x04705f… |
| 07-10 20:27:26 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 100 | 83¢ | $83 | 0xc764d9… |
| 07-10 20:27:26 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 17¢ | $17 | 0xc764d9… |
| 07-10 20:27:20 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 17¢ | $17 | 0xc2b013… |
| 07-10 20:27:20 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 100 | 83¢ | $83 | 0xc2b013… |
| 07-10 20:27:17 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xfae900… |
| 07-10 20:27:17 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xfae900… |
| 07-10 20:27:17 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xfae900… |
| 07-10 20:27:17 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xfae900… |
| 07-10 20:27:17 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xfae900… |
| 07-10 17:05:16 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 24¢ | $8 | 0xb311bd… |
| 07-10 17:05:16 | (anonymous) 0xf74c…4b75 | No | SELL | 35 | 76¢ | $27 | 0xb311bd… |
| 07-10 17:05:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 24¢ | $3 | 0x587ae3… |
| 07-10 17:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xd2c5…91d7 | No | SELL | 11 | 76¢ | $8 | 0x587ae3… |
| 07-10 17:05:10 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0xc94806… |
| 07-10 17:05:10 | (anonymous) 0x2818…f033 | No | SELL | 25 | 78¢ | $20 | 0xc94806… |
| 07-10 17:05:10 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0xc94806… |
| 07-10 17:05:10 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0xc94806… |
| 07-10 17:05:07 | (anonymous) 0x9291…71a2 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x07bbdc… |
| 07-10 17:05:07 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x07bbdc… |
| 07-10 17:04:31 | (anonymous) 0xd2c5…91d7 | No | SELL | 18 | 83¢ | $15 | 0xe7ad80… |
| 07-10 17:04:31 | (anonymous) 0xbf8d…38dd | Yes | SELL | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xe7ad80… |
| 07-10 17:04:05 | (anonymous) 0xbf8d…38dd | Yes | SELL | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x1f9302… |
| 07-10 17:04:05 | (anonymous) 0xd990…749e | No | SELL | 18 | 83¢ | $15 | 0x1f9302… |
| 07-10 17:04:05 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 64 | 83¢ | $53 | 0xe86ca2… |
| 07-10 17:04:05 | (anonymous) 0xbf8d…38dd | Yes | SELL | 64 | 17¢ | $11 | 0xe86ca2… |
| 07-10 17:03:16 | (anonymous) 0xf74c…4b75 | No | BUY | 35 | 83¢ | $29 | 0x50c33d… |
| 07-10 17:03:16 | (anonymous) 0xbf8d…38dd | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xcc5e79… |
| 07-10 17:03:16 | (anonymous) 0xd2c5…91d7 | No | BUY | 30 | 83¢ | $25 | 0xcc5e79… |