Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$21,564
Trades
765
Unique wallets
181
Liquidity
$19,616
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-04-28
last 11-02 14:47
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+0.4¢
(top1%: 30% YES on $5.3K
vs crowd: 30% YES on $13.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 34 | $1.7K | $4.2K | $2.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 34 | $376 | $2.9K | $2.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 43 | $1.6K | $1.4K | +$123 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 70 | $325 | $718 | $393 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 32 | $1.6K | $3.7K | $2.1K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 22 | $140 | $2.2K | $2.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | — | $46 | $46 |
| Median | 16 | $51 | $105 | $54 |
| Below median | 53 | $292 | $1.1K | $846 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 14 | $278 | $379 | $102 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 13 | $360 | $490 | $130 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 19 | $349 | $1.1K | $732 |
| unranked | 6 | $849 | $94 | +$755 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | No | +2,477 | $1,116 | $1,143 | 4 | 05-24 01:39 |
| Official-Barley 0xd414…a4db | Yes | +2,477 | $1,293 | $1,293 | 8 | 04-29 21:39 |
| Animated-Riddle 0xaf45…ec7d | No | +2,134 | $1,111 | $1,111 | 11 | 05-05 12:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6d0…4bad | Yes | +1,343 | $818 | $881 | 2 | 07-16 19:09 |
| Grubby-Mall 0xa309…4cf2 | No | +1,239 | $619 | $1,078 | 9 | 07-13 16:53 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +604 | $251 | $296 | 6 | 07-10 20:27 |
| Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | +500 | $450 | $450 | 3 | 08-14 15:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +403 | $121 | $121 | 13 | 10-07 01:59 |
| Fabulous-Online 0x3a8a…7699 | No | +377 | $283 | $283 | 2 | 06-15 05:03 |
| Complicated-Innovation 0x585b…753f | Yes | +304 | $173 | $173 | 1 | 04-28 20:12 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +254 | $149 | $149 | 13 | 08-17 17:06 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +252 | $2 | $8 | 13 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xa108…abd3 | No | +158 | $150 | $150 | 1 | 09-17 08:17 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +155 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xf4f3…330d | No | +153 | $82 | $82 | 3 | 05-04 14:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xc338…9f86 | No | +140 | $118 | $118 | 2 | 07-15 03:35 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +121 | $47 | $47 | 7 | 06-02 23:38 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | +115 | -$3 | $93 | 53 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x6255…900b | Yes | +105 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 07-14 02:30 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-02 14:47 |
| Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | No | +100 | $45 | $45 | 1 | 04-28 20:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xe5aa…44db | Yes | +82 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-29 17:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | +77 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x932f…77a6 | No | +69 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 05-31 17:11 |
| Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | +62 | $143 | $225 | 15 | 09-11 13:00 |
| Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | +52 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 10-31 02:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | +51 | $58 | $178 | 17 | 06-01 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | +51 | $22 | $517 | 16 | 07-10 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x0609…29f5 | Yes | +50 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-11 01:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6d0…4bad | No | +50 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 05-04 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xe077…55f7 | Yes | +47 | $1 | $1 | 5 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x75d1…7a5f | No | +41 | $20 | $20 | 4 | 10-05 17:46 |
| Unselfish-Hometown 0x81e7…7389 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 06-18 03:00 |
| Animated-Riddle 0xaf45…ec7d | Yes | +34 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-02 01:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +31 | $3 | $3 | 7 | 09-16 18:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x0360…0469 | Yes | +26 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-30 02:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xf151…2d0c | Yes | +21 | $0 | $1 | 6 | 11-02 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-19 23:30 |
| Vivid-Departure 0x2e34…9434 | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-02 23:32 |
| Made-Up-Jaw 0xe5aa…87ac | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x61a6…5877 | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-20 11:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b16…6936 | Yes | +12 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-16 18:17 |
| Delayed-Trust 0x7b82…8d9f | No | +12 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 11-01 08:21 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-10 16:38 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-15 05:03 |
| Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-02 07:04 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-14 23:53 |
| Miserly-Dimension 0x6056…c27c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-21 12:30 |
| Talkative-Mutation 0x6993…2108 | No | +9 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-13 09:25 |
| Disgusting-Lion 0x8f4a…1539 | No | +8 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-11 10:07 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | +7 | $3 | $11 | 3 | 05-05 12:12 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | +7 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-04 18:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xd9fe…db0d | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-14 15:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x2b06…754a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-05 21:55 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-24 00:42 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $4 | $27 | 5 | 09-23 05:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-03 12:06 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 14:47:19 | (anonymous) 0xf151…2d0c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 77 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | (anonymous) 0xe077…55f7 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 35 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-02 14:47:19 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | SELL | 555 | 1¢ | $6 | 0x22d466… |
| 11-01 08:21:40 | Delayed-Trust 0x7b82…8d9f | No | BUY | 12 | 98¢ | $11 | 0x222190… |
| 11-01 08:21:40 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x222190… |
| 10-31 21:04:37 | (anonymous) 0xf151…2d0c | Yes | SELL | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x73b2ae… |
| 10-31 21:04:37 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | SELL | 12 | 98¢ | $12 | 0x73b2ae… |
| 10-31 02:43:03 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x829d76… |
| 10-31 02:43:03 | (anonymous) 0x2a5b…b78b | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x829d76… |
| 10-31 02:43:01 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2724b1… |
| 10-31 02:43:01 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $51 | 0x2724b1… |
| 10-31 02:43:01 | (anonymous) 0xf151…2d0c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2724b1… |
| 10-30 02:10:31 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa5320e… |
| 10-30 02:10:31 | (anonymous) 0x0360…0469 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa5320e… |
| 10-29 17:41:46 | Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x19d751… |
| 10-29 17:41:46 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x19d751… |
| 10-29 17:40:59 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xb6f620… |
| 10-29 17:40:59 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xb6f620… |
| 10-29 17:40:59 | (anonymous) 0xe5aa…44db | Yes | BUY | 82 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xb6f620… |
| 10-14 18:51:10 | (anonymous) 0xf7ae…97e6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcea9b4… |
| 10-14 18:51:10 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcea9b4… |
| 10-07 01:59:57 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 38 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x41f754… |
| 10-07 01:59:57 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 38 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x41f754… |
| 10-07 01:59:51 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc6d0b9… |
| 10-07 01:59:51 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc6d0b9… |
| 10-07 01:59:45 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x4d66ea… |
| 10-07 01:59:45 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x4d66ea… |
| 10-07 01:59:38 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x999317… |
| 10-07 01:59:38 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x999317… |
| 10-07 01:59:30 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 83 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x260d74… |
| 10-07 01:59:30 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 123 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x260d74… |
| 10-07 01:59:30 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x260d74… |
| 10-05 17:46:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 0 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd2b60f… |
| 10-05 17:46:55 | (anonymous) 0x75d1…7a5f | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xd2b60f… |
| 10-05 15:43:52 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | SELL | 199 | 2¢ | $4 | 0x306ec2… |
| 10-05 15:43:52 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 199 | 98¢ | $195 | 0x306ec2… |
| 10-05 02:33:08 | (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x7594af… |
| 10-05 02:33:08 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x7594af… |
| 09-27 20:04:24 | (anonymous) 0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | SELL | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc86cd9… |
| 09-27 20:04:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc86cd9… |
| 09-24 03:00:58 | Quarterly-Goddess 0xe22c…7baf | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xc62cb8… |
| 09-24 03:00:58 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc62cb8… |
| 09-23 05:56:53 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 12 | 94¢ | $11 | 0xb2b1ad… |
| 09-23 05:56:53 | (anonymous) 0x19be…c270 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xb2b1ad… |
| 09-23 05:56:53 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb2b1ad… |
| 09-23 05:56:53 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb2b1ad… |
| 09-19 01:08:18 | Violet-Negligee 0xd687…bbb3 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xfbbf82… |
| 09-19 01:08:18 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xfbbf82… |
| 09-18 08:56:34 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xd60569… |
| 09-18 08:56:34 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xd60569… |
| 09-18 08:56:34 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $4 | 0xd60569… |
| 09-17 08:53:04 | (anonymous) 0xe59a…8328 | No | SELL | 7 | 93¢ | $7 | 0xcaacad… |
| 09-17 08:53:04 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | BUY | 7 | 93¢ | $7 | 0xcaacad… |
| 09-17 08:17:18 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 158 | 95¢ | $150 | 0x902517… |
| 09-17 08:17:18 | (anonymous) 0xa108…abd3 | No | BUY | 158 | 95¢ | $150 | 0x902517… |
| 09-16 18:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x6b16…6936 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x594cd3… |
| 09-16 18:17:07 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 185 | 93¢ | $172 | 0x594cd3… |
| 09-16 18:17:07 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x594cd3… |
| 09-16 18:17:07 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 163 | 93¢ | $152 | 0x594cd3… |
| 09-16 18:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x594cd3… |
| 09-11 13:00:07 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 476 | 92¢ | $438 | 0x105600… |
| 09-11 13:00:07 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x105600… |
| 09-11 13:00:07 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x105600… |
| 09-11 13:00:07 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x105600… |
| 09-11 13:00:07 | Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | SELL | 435 | 8¢ | $35 | 0x105600… |
| 09-11 03:29:54 | Testy-Operator 0x80a4…22cc | No | SELL | 93 | 94¢ | $87 | 0xa64912… |
| 09-11 03:29:54 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa64912… |
| 09-11 03:29:54 | Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | SELL | 103 | 6¢ | $6 | 0xa64912… |
| 09-09 18:21:24 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x68de40… |
| 09-09 18:21:24 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x68de40… |
| 09-04 16:35:36 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 21 | 91¢ | $19 | 0x45b19e… |
| 09-04 16:35:36 | Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x45b19e… |
| 08-31 18:40:28 | (anonymous) 0x169e…d5fb | Yes | SELL | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x838930… |
| 08-31 18:40:28 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x838930… |
| 08-26 10:52:13 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 0 | 88¢ | $0 | 0x24c2a6… |
| 08-26 10:52:13 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 0 | 88¢ | $0 | 0x24c2a6… |
| 08-18 09:36:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xc616c6… |
| 08-18 09:36:01 | Quarterly-Goddess 0xe22c…7baf | No | BUY | 6 | 89¢ | $5 | 0xc616c6… |
| 08-17 17:06:00 | (anonymous) 0x169e…d5fb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x97749f… |
| 08-17 17:06:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x97749f… |
| 08-17 06:33:22 | Quarterly-Goddess 0xe22c…7baf | No | BUY | 1 | 88¢ | $1 | 0xeac33a… |
| 08-17 06:33:22 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 12¢ | $0 | 0xeac33a… |
| 08-14 21:22:37 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xcd6c1f… |
| 08-14 21:22:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xcd6c1f… |
| 08-14 15:37:21 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x08861e… |
| 08-14 15:37:21 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 441 | 90¢ | $396 | 0x08861e… |
| 08-14 15:37:21 | (anonymous) 0xd9fe…db0d | No | BUY | 7 | 90¢ | $6 | 0x08861e… |
| 08-14 15:37:21 | (anonymous) 0x4780…3bcf | Yes | BUY | 460 | 10¢ | $46 | 0x08861e… |
| 08-12 13:12:57 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 9 | 90¢ | $9 | 0xcb398e… |
| 08-12 13:12:57 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 9 | 90¢ | $9 | 0xcb398e… |
| 08-11 01:34:55 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 50 | 90¢ | $45 | 0x63d568… |
| 08-11 01:34:55 | (anonymous) 0x0609…29f5 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x63d568… |
| 08-09 22:17:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xcbff97… |
| 08-09 22:17:00 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xcbff97… |
| 08-09 10:21:54 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x70a37e… |