Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$3,404
$23 in 24h
Trades
172
Unique wallets
53
Liquidity
$5,716
Latest YES mid
18¢
Latest NO mid
82¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-30 12:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-15.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $714
vs crowd: 16% YES on $1.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $87 | $349 | $261 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $72 | $771 | $699 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $85 | $59 | +$26 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 25 | $37 | $320 | $283 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $2 | $712 | $711 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $55 | $3 | +$52 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $18 | $110 | $93 |
| Median | 2 | — | $33 | $33 |
| Below median | 7 | $14 | $8 | +$5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | — | $15 | $15 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $40 | $283 | $243 |
| unranked | 25 | $136 | $334 | $198 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +839 | $705 | $705 | 1 | 06-17 19:05 |
| Fabulous-Online 0x3a8a…7699 | No | +377 | $283 | $283 | 2 | 06-15 05:03 |
| Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | +329 | $75 | $75 | 3 | 06-08 10:38 |
| Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | +209 | $163 | $163 | 1 | 06-08 10:38 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +86 | $40 | $40 | 5 | 06-02 23:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x932f…77a6 | No | +69 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 05-31 17:11 |
| Unselfish-Hometown 0x81e7…7389 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 06-18 03:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-21 15:18 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +29 | $11 | $24 | 5 | 06-18 03:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | +25 | $19 | $19 | 3 | 05-30 20:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-19 23:30 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 05-30 20:09 |
| Made-Up-Jaw 0xe5aa…87ac | Yes | +18 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x5695…002b | Yes | +15 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-24 13:44 |
| Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | +15 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-12 16:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x61a6…5877 | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-20 11:32 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-15 05:03 |
| Vivid-Departure 0x2e34…9434 | No | +10 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-02 23:32 |
| Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-14 23:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | +7 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-06 19:35 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | +5 | $-0 | $9 | 6 | 06-02 23:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +4 | $1 | $12 | 6 | 06-17 21:37 |
| Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | +4 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-02 23:40 |
| Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | Yes | +1 | $-22 | $122 | 21 | 06-02 23:38 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 12:17:41 | Shadowy-Geology 0xb679…0e5e | No | SELL | 5 | 78¢ | $4 | 0x40f102… |
| 06-30 12:17:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x40f102… |
| 06-24 19:32:34 | (anonymous) 0x582b…d4e2 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 18¢ | $18 | 0xe1f75c… |
| 06-24 19:32:34 | Little-Oversight 0x0156…2ddc | No | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0xe1f75c… |
| 06-24 19:32:34 | Constant-Cranberry 0x0387…62d1 | No | SELL | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0xe1f75c… |
| 06-24 13:44:13 | (anonymous) 0x5695…002b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 20¢ | $3 | 0x8641e2… |
| 06-24 13:44:13 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x8641e2… |
| 06-24 13:44:13 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x8641e2… |
| 06-23 20:24:49 | (anonymous) 0xc16e…efb3 | No | SELL | 7 | 80¢ | $6 | 0xde87a0… |
| 06-23 20:24:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xde87a0… |
| 06-23 12:01:25 | (anonymous) 0xc16e…efb3 | No | BUY | 7 | 83¢ | $6 | 0xf07d8f… |
| 06-23 12:01:25 | Constant-Cranberry 0x0387…62d1 | No | SELL | 7 | 83¢ | $6 | 0xf07d8f… |
| 06-22 13:16:43 | Close-Struggle 0x7286…559e | No | SELL | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x2681ac… |
| 06-22 13:16:43 | Smart-Vampire 0xbfd9…1236 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x2681ac… |
| 06-21 15:18:52 | (anonymous) 0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xa18318… |
| 06-21 15:18:52 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 17¢ | $0 | 0xa18318… |
| 06-20 15:03:55 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x00dd7b… |
| 06-20 15:03:55 | Smart-Vampire 0xbfd9…1236 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x00dd7b… |
| 06-20 11:32:14 | (anonymous) 0x61a6…5877 | No | BUY | 14 | 84¢ | $12 | 0xb05aa5… |
| 06-20 11:32:14 | Close-Struggle 0x7286…559e | No | SELL | 14 | 84¢ | $12 | 0xb05aa5… |
| 06-19 23:30:25 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x9662ed… |
| 06-19 23:30:25 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x9662ed… |
| 06-18 16:34:58 | Natural-Gear 0xd52b…5c72 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 16¢ | $7 | 0x608e56… |
| 06-18 16:34:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 16¢ | $7 | 0x608e56… |
| 06-18 07:26:04 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | SELL | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x984e9d… |
| 06-18 07:26:04 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x984e9d… |
| 06-18 03:18:58 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x1249d4… |
| 06-18 03:18:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x1249d4… |
| 06-18 03:18:58 | (anonymous) 0xb0aa…0730 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x1249d4… |
| 06-18 03:00:47 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x3d0478… |
| 06-18 03:00:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x3d0478… |
| 06-18 03:00:47 | Unselfish-Hometown 0x81e7…7389 | No | BUY | 40 | 82¢ | $33 | 0x3d0478… |
| 06-17 21:37:47 | Natural-Gear 0xd52b…5c72 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 20¢ | $9 | 0xfb7778… |
| 06-17 21:37:47 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 11 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xfb7778… |
| 06-17 21:37:47 | Constant-Cranberry 0x0387…62d1 | No | BUY | 27 | 80¢ | $22 | 0xfb7778… |
| 06-17 21:37:47 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xfb7778… |
| 06-17 19:05:35 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 839 | 84¢ | $705 | 0x20f7cd… |
| 06-17 19:05:35 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 839 | 84¢ | $705 | 0x20f7cd… |
| 06-17 18:03:55 | Constant-Cranberry 0x0387…62d1 | No | BUY | 27 | 83¢ | $22 | 0xf05a91… |
| 06-17 18:03:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 22 | 83¢ | $18 | 0xf05a91… |
| 06-17 18:03:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xf05a91… |
| 06-15 18:03:18 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 12 | 24¢ | $3 | 0xf66aa3… |
| 06-15 18:03:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 23¢ | $2 | 0xf66aa3… |
| 06-15 18:03:18 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xf66aa3… |
| 06-15 05:03:54 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xc2cd85… |
| 06-15 05:03:54 | (anonymous) 0x24ac…e7d0 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 18¢ | $6 | 0xc2cd85… |
| 06-15 05:03:54 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0xc2cd85… |
| 06-15 05:03:54 | Little-Oversight 0x0156…2ddc | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xc2cd85… |
| 06-15 05:03:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 7 | 84¢ | $6 | 0xc2cd85… |
| 06-15 05:03:46 | Fabulous-Online 0x3a8a…7699 | No | BUY | 23 | 75¢ | $17 | 0xf3fd21… |
| 06-15 05:03:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $16 | 0xf3fd21… |
| 06-15 05:03:46 | (anonymous) 0x24ac…e7d0 | No | SELL | 44 | 75¢ | $33 | 0xf3fd21… |
| 06-14 23:53:00 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 1 | 76¢ | $1 | 0x8f117d… |
| 06-14 23:53:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 9 | 76¢ | $7 | 0x8f117d… |
| 06-14 23:53:00 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 76¢ | $8 | 0x8f117d… |
| 06-14 23:53:00 | Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x8f117d… |
| 06-13 09:23:48 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 7 | 76¢ | $5 | 0xcdd884… |
| 06-13 09:23:48 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xcdd884… |
| 06-13 09:23:48 | (anonymous) 0xf8f2…96cf | No | SELL | 12 | 76¢ | $9 | 0xcdd884… |
| 06-12 16:24:48 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xbf4388… |
| 06-12 16:24:48 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 8 | 80¢ | $6 | 0xbf4388… |
| 06-12 16:24:48 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | BUY | 15 | 80¢ | $12 | 0xbf4388… |
| 06-10 21:59:06 | Deficient-Bother 0x4727…0ca0 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 20¢ | $8 | 0x75c8b3… |
| 06-10 21:59:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 36 | 80¢ | $29 | 0x75c8b3… |
| 06-10 21:59:06 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 6 | 80¢ | $5 | 0x75c8b3… |
| 06-10 12:56:16 | Close-Pray 0x6c12…748f | No | SELL | 30 | 78¢ | $23 | 0xfc895a… |
| 06-10 12:56:16 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | BUY | 30 | 78¢ | $23 | 0xfc895a… |
| 06-10 02:07:22 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 2 | 76¢ | $1 | 0x05520a… |
| 06-10 02:07:22 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 2 | 76¢ | $1 | 0x05520a… |
| 06-09 06:02:27 | Fabulous-Online 0x3a8a…7699 | No | BUY | 354 | 75¢ | $265 | 0x4e6ea1… |
| 06-09 06:02:27 | Wrathful-Row 0x56c9…0d9e | No | SELL | 354 | 75¢ | $265 | 0x4e6ea1… |
| 06-08 13:21:31 | Deficient-Bother 0x4727…0ca0 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 24¢ | $10 | 0x080f21… |
| 06-08 13:21:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 42 | 76¢ | $32 | 0x080f21… |
| 06-08 12:51:13 | Close-Pray 0x6c12…748f | No | SELL | 9 | 77¢ | $7 | 0x9a58e0… |
| 06-08 12:51:13 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 9 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x9a58e0… |
| 06-08 12:47:12 | Close-Pray 0x6c12…748f | No | SELL | 6 | 77¢ | $5 | 0x8781e1… |
| 06-08 12:47:12 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 6 | 77¢ | $5 | 0x8781e1… |
| 06-08 10:38:46 | Wasteful-Baobab 0xd658…2525 | No | BUY | 209 | 78¢ | $163 | 0x341c2a… |
| 06-08 10:38:46 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 9 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x341c2a… |
| 06-08 10:38:46 | Far-Off-Ectoderm 0xb5ff…bb6c | Yes | BUY | 200 | 22¢ | $44 | 0x341c2a… |
| 06-07 22:00:19 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | No | SELL | 94 | 75¢ | $70 | 0x6d0699… |
| 06-07 22:00:19 | Disgusting-Shade 0xabaa…a174 | Yes | SELL | 94 | 25¢ | $24 | 0x6d0699… |
| 06-07 21:51:42 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 1 | 73¢ | $1 | 0x7d853b… |
| 06-07 21:51:42 | Disgusting-Shade 0xabaa…a174 | No | SELL | 1 | 73¢ | $1 | 0x7d853b… |
| 06-06 19:35:39 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x291e5a… |
| 06-06 19:35:39 | Shadowy-Geology 0xb679…0e5e | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x291e5a… |
| 06-06 19:35:39 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 1 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x291e5a… |
| 06-06 19:32:36 | Pointed-Sail 0x9cfd…dfe7 | No | SELL | 8 | 72¢ | $6 | 0xabe71e… |
| 06-06 19:32:36 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 27¢ | $0 | 0xabe71e… |
| 06-06 19:32:36 | Weak-Meridian 0x3a1e…5bb5 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xabe71e… |
| 06-02 23:40:44 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | BUY | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x57bb65… |
| 06-02 23:40:44 | Weak-Meridian 0x3a1e…5bb5 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x57bb65… |
| 06-02 23:40:41 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | BUY | 0 | 65¢ | $0 | 0xfdf1e4… |
| 06-02 23:40:41 | Weak-Meridian 0x3a1e…5bb5 | No | SELL | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xfdf1e4… |
| 06-02 23:40:41 | Pointed-Sail 0x9cfd…dfe7 | No | BUY | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xfdf1e4… |
| 06-02 23:38:42 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | Yes | SELL | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x6afcab… |
| 06-02 23:38:42 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x6afcab… |
| 06-02 23:38:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 6 | 47¢ | $3 | 0xcbca35… |
| 06-02 23:38:22 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | Yes | BUY | 6 | 47¢ | $3 | 0xcbca35… |
| 06-02 23:38:19 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | Yes | SELL | 19 | 46¢ | $9 | 0x170dff… |