Delayed-Trust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$134

Unrealized P&L

-$36

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

340

Trades

930

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$181

25 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-01 18:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

48% 88% -$110

Politics

45% 99% +$11

Tech

5% 91% +$3

Sports

1% 57% -$39

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Crypto

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (25) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	+312	$50	4¢	$14	-$36	05-06 05:12
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	+12	$11	98¢	$11	$0	11-01 08:21
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	+11	$11	99¢	$11	+$0	09-10 21:16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+11	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	11-01 08:24
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-18 13:09
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	+10	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	10-01 19:34
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	+9	$9	97¢	$9	$0	11-01 12:13
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+9	$9	95¢	$9	$0	09-22 22:32
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+8	$8	99¢	$8	+$0	09-05 05:05
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	+8	$7	98¢	$7	+$0	11-01 14:05
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	+8	$7	98¢	$7	+$0	10-05 04:16
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+7	$7	97¢	$7	$0	11-01 14:08
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	+7	$7	94¢	$6	$0	09-20 01:03
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	+6	$6	94¢	$6	$0	09-20 05:31
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+6	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	11-01 14:17
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	09-07 01:26
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-08 07:52
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-03 17:43
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-07 00:55
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	11-01 15:25
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	10-02 19:30
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	$0	11-01 14:20
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	11-01 18:29
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	10-02 21:18
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	10-01 21:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$189	95	95	+0	Yes	+$1	08-11 23:31
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?	2	$184	93	93	+0	No	+$1	07-20 16:46
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?	6	$161	81	81	+0	No	+$1	08-04 22:52
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	2	$153	77	77	+0	Yes	+$1	07-01 01:39
Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	4	$148	75	75	+0	Yes	+$1	08-10 17:20
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$147	74	74	+0	Yes	+$1	10-04 23:25
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	2	$131	66	66	+0	No	+$1	06-17 04:58
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	2	$126	63	63	+0	No	+$0	05-28 06:31
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	5	$125	64	64	+0	Yes	+$1	06-01 02:32
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$125	63	63	+0	No	+$1	10-02 02:24
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	2	$123	62	62	+0	Yes	+$1	08-07 00:40
Will Phil Scott win the 2026 Vermont Governor Republican primary election?	2	$106	54	54	+0	Yes	+$1	08-08 06:24
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$106	53	53	+0	No	+$1	10-09 03:33
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	3	$105	53	53	+0	No	+$1	07-01 16:10
Will Hank Kroll advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	2	$102	52	52	+0	No	+$1	08-27 03:09
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$1	06-17 18:20
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	2	$96	49	49	+0	Yes	+$1	06-27 23:46
Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	2	$91	46	46	+0	No	+$1	08-18 23:42
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$89	45	45	+0	No	+$0	06-25 23:13
Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?	3	$89	45	45	+0	Yes	+$1	08-18 23:24
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?	2	$87	44	44	+0	Yes	+$1	08-12 01:00
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	3	$86	44	44	+0	Yes	+$0	06-03 01:18
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	3	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	06-29 10:09
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	2	$84	43	43	+0	No	+$0	06-29 11:09
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?	3	$84	43	43	+0	No	+$1	10-01 04:06
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	2	$84	81	4	+77	No	+$1	06-16 04:33
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	3	$83	17	68	-51	No	$0	05-31 01:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026?	3	$81	41	41	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 17:17
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?	1	$77	78	0	+78	No	+$1	06-14 22:51
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$75	38	38	+0	Yes	+$1	06-30 16:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 18:29:25	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd9eab8…
11-01 15:25:22	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4bce14…
11-01 14:20:48	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1195a5…
11-01 14:17:42	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x38c096…
11-01 14:14:33	Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x89dfda…
11-01 14:11:28	Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe3f28e…
11-01 14:08:21	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x236bb4…
11-01 14:05:13	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xd99c53…
11-01 12:16:16	Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc406f5…
11-01 12:13:10	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xeaa45e…
11-01 08:27:51	Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x26e3ce…
11-01 08:24:43	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0xecdbcc…
11-01 08:21:40	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$11	0x222190…
11-01 06:00:25	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x50d124…
11-01 06:00:22	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa3eca9…
10-31 10:52:28	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xfbb957…
10-31 09:00:10	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xffe8ee…
10-31 08:57:06	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x55294d…
10-31 08:53:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x229543…
10-30 07:27:30	Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xcc0924…
10-29 07:21:53	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to 2 to 5 years in prison?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4fefdc…
10-27 09:52:06	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa99bb6…
10-26 16:08:42	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc33f02…
10-26 00:10:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x38725a…
10-25 23:47:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x1f6fa1…
10-25 22:52:44	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0a49fb…
10-25 20:13:38	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xdc3384…
10-25 07:19:00	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x24d59a…
10-25 05:47:24	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xff1346…
10-24 18:52:56	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xea8fd5…
10-22 17:32:00	Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3fac05…
10-22 16:59:47	Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb00da6…
10-20 14:13:50	Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb0e251…
10-15 09:29:40	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-18 House seat?	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x555bbf…
10-14 02:45:20	Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x12ce30…
10-14 02:30:04	Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x52773f…
10-12 19:46:21	Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x4f00f5…
10-12 13:29:32	Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8afdb7…
10-12 10:15:21	Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe28b58…
10-10 20:31:15	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x459527…
10-10 16:00:18	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x117e08…
10-10 10:26:30	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x475cf8…
10-10 10:02:31	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x671f46…
10-09 18:17:14	Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x052450…
10-09 09:02:01	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xce175c…
10-09 09:02:01	Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc17a4b…
10-09 09:02:01	Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2ee41a…
10-09 09:02:01	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x233fbe…
10-09 09:02:01	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x029474…
10-09 09:01:37	Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x048287…
10-09 09:01:25	Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x5311dc…
10-09 09:01:01	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x19c565…
10-09 08:55:42	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa13cb0…
10-09 08:34:34	Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ac9b8…
10-09 08:04:04	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x88d82e…
10-09 07:53:45	Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x944715…
10-09 07:49:39	Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x27f155…
10-09 07:49:13	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x86f3ee…
10-09 07:11:10	Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x912c66…
10-09 06:58:09	Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0xfa9ff9…
10-09 05:30:06	Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8463ec…
10-09 05:15:23	Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc04a77…
10-09 03:33:48	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xf9fc90…
10-09 02:11:41	Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x10163c…
10-08 19:20:15	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xef36c6…
10-08 15:46:51	Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x52ad21…
10-08 07:52:58	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf97701…
10-07 23:03:38	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8469a0…
10-07 14:21:07	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x617f27…
10-07 10:14:29	Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x406fb0…
10-07 09:11:02	Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x61ec05…
10-07 00:55:57	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa8610a…
10-06 12:28:10	Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x79452c…
10-06 07:54:15	Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x32b00c…
10-06 06:00:27	Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x4176fd…
10-06 00:38:52	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3f393d…
10-06 00:16:10	Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2276de…
10-05 19:44:47	Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xff35f6…
10-05 09:26:07	Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7a13e2…
10-05 07:01:02	Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x7b6a54…
10-05 06:08:14	Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x19bf89…
10-05 04:16:58	Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xb6e9f1…
10-05 02:53:49	Will the Republican Party win the CA-27 House seat?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xd16739…
10-04 23:25:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x2ce96d…
10-04 23:21:40	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x645eec…
10-04 22:43:53	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5d792d…
10-04 11:51:34	Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xffcb2f…
10-04 08:54:02	Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3a9927…
10-04 03:54:16	Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5ea379…
10-04 03:30:23	Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x498753…
10-04 03:01:07	Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xab2106…
10-04 01:42:37	Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x88da62…
10-04 01:41:25	Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe5dad6…
10-03 20:33:40	Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x428413…
10-03 20:31:53	Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1e716f…
10-03 17:46:32	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x05cb67…
10-03 17:43:45	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf0456f…
10-03 17:42:17	Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcfa4cf…
10-03 02:51:51	Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9dacda…
10-03 01:58:39	Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe9201d…