Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,388
Trades
84
Unique wallets
29
Liquidity
$2,987
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-03
last 06-12 11:23
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $0 | $25 | $25 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $24 | $276 | $252 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $19 | $6 | +$12 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $30 | $403 | $373 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $0 | $21 | $21 |
| Median | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| Below median | 3 | $30 | $1 | +$29 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $20 | $278 | $258 |
| unranked | 11 | $19 | $409 | $389 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | +440 | $19 | $19 | 3 | 06-07 19:37 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +84 | $80 | $80 | 15 | 06-06 10:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xa118…2455 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xf9ea…df98 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x08db…d66e | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8b0…5b0d | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xd424…693f | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0895…60ec | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | +13 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-12 11:20 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 11:23:37 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x2f585c… |
| 06-12 11:23:37 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2f585c… |
| 06-12 11:20:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc91b72… |
| 06-12 11:20:34 | (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc91b72… |
| 06-12 03:58:34 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x06901b… |
| 06-12 03:58:34 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x06901b… |
| 06-11 09:02:30 | (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbebdd7… |
| 06-11 09:02:30 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbebdd7… |
| 06-07 19:37:34 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0bbcbc… |
| 06-07 19:37:34 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0bbcbc… |
| 06-07 19:36:42 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 78 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x5e7fd7… |
| 06-07 19:36:42 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x5e7fd7… |
| 06-07 19:36:39 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 274 | 4¢ | $11 | 0x01125c… |
| 06-07 19:36:39 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 274 | 4¢ | $11 | 0x01125c… |
| 06-07 19:36:37 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x436c4a… |
| 06-07 19:36:37 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 22 | 96¢ | $21 | 0x436c4a… |
| 06-07 19:35:34 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 280 | 96¢ | $268 | 0x42a728… |
| 06-07 19:35:34 | Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | SELL | 899 | 4¢ | $40 | 0x42a728… |
| 06-07 19:35:34 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 79 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x42a728… |
| 06-07 19:35:34 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 375 | 4¢ | $17 | 0x42a728… |
| 06-07 19:35:34 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 165 | 4¢ | $7 | 0x42a728… |
| 06-07 09:19:15 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa7adc3… |
| 06-07 09:19:15 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xa7adc3… |
| 06-07 09:18:24 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x17d136… |
| 06-07 09:18:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x17d136… |
| 06-07 09:13:07 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf04a1f… |
| 06-07 09:13:07 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xf04a1f… |
| 06-07 09:11:12 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x4059ae… |
| 06-07 09:11:12 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | BUY | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x4059ae… |
| 06-06 13:12:09 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 22 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xdf78b9… |
| 06-06 13:12:09 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 22 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xdf78b9… |
| 06-06 10:07:51 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x909109… |
| 06-06 10:07:51 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x909109… |
| 06-06 10:07:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x909109… |
| 06-06 06:11:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1b327c… |
| 06-06 06:11:03 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1b327c… |
| 06-05 06:09:54 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4d83c2… |
| 06-05 06:09:54 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4d83c2… |
| 06-05 06:08:13 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xa0fe8f… |
| 06-05 06:08:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xa0fe8f… |
| 06-04 19:08:36 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x40d564… |
| 06-04 19:08:36 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x40d564… |
| 06-04 19:08:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0x25411c… |
| 06-04 19:08:36 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0x25411c… |
| 06-04 19:08:36 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x40d564… |
| 06-04 19:08:34 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xa68042… |
| 06-04 19:08:34 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xa68042… |
| 06-04 19:08:33 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xc88e51… |
| 06-04 19:08:33 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xc88e51… |
| 06-04 19:08:31 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xebf59e… |
| 06-04 19:08:31 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xebf59e… |
| 06-04 19:08:30 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xed5779… |
| 06-04 19:08:30 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xed5779… |
| 06-04 19:08:28 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x6d98b0… |
| 06-04 19:08:28 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x6d98b0… |
| 06-04 19:08:27 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x3bf3bc… |
| 06-04 19:08:27 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x3bf3bc… |
| 06-04 19:08:25 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xba208c… |
| 06-04 19:08:25 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xba208c… |
| 06-04 19:08:24 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x7d3d38… |
| 06-04 19:08:24 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x7d3d38… |
| 06-04 19:08:22 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x78a1f9… |
| 06-04 19:08:22 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x78a1f9… |
| 06-04 19:08:21 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xfb18d0… |
| 06-04 19:08:21 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x9a572e… |
| 06-04 19:08:21 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xfb18d0… |
| 06-04 19:08:21 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x9a572e… |
| 06-04 19:08:19 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 101 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x66b43e… |
| 06-04 19:08:19 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 101 | 96¢ | $98 | 0x66b43e… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | SELL | 79 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0xa118…2455 | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | BUY | 899 | 3¢ | $30 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0xd424…693f | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0x08db…d66e | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0xf9ea…df98 | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 101 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0xe8b0…5b0d | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | Fragrant-Interchange 0xd493…7f04 | Yes | SELL | 103 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 200 | 97¢ | $193 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-04 19:08:16 | (anonymous) 0x0895…60ec | No | BUY | 52 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xdb561d… |
| 06-03 12:59:28 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0xcc865c… |
| 06-03 12:59:28 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcc865c… |