Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,896
Trades
178
Unique wallets
50
Liquidity
$2,987
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-03
last 08-01 18:48
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $1 | $254 | $253 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 19 | $48 | $461 | $413 |
| 🐟 Fish | 11 | $28 | $103 | $75 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 15 | $32 | $403 | $371 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $5 | $49 | $43 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $0 | $79 | $79 |
| Median | 2 | — | $3 | $3 |
| Below median | 8 | $31 | $112 | $81 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $11 | — | +$11 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $39 | $420 | $382 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $53 | $53 |
| unranked | 16 | $21 | $506 | $484 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +120 | $117 | $117 | 3 | 07-30 22:52 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +108 | $103 | $103 | 19 | 07-24 18:50 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +101 | $4 | $16 | 6 | 06-22 02:19 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +90 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 07-30 22:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x08db…d66e | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xf9ea…df98 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8b0…5b0d | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xd424…693f | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0895…60ec | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xa118…2455 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 4 | 06-19 13:51 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +15 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-22 02:19 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $1 | 6 | 07-13 06:53 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 18:48:45 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0362da… |
| 08-01 18:48:45 | (anonymous) 0x96ac…8316 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0362da… |
| 07-30 22:52:59 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x98371f… |
| 07-30 22:52:59 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x98371f… |
| 07-30 22:48:38 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x22143d… |
| 07-30 22:48:38 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x941380… |
| 07-30 22:48:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x941380… |
| 07-30 22:48:38 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 40 | 98¢ | $39 | 0x22143d… |
| 07-30 22:48:38 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 70 | 98¢ | $68 | 0x941380… |
| 07-24 18:50:28 | (anonymous) 0xfb11…7901 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf526b6… |
| 07-24 18:50:28 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xf526b6… |
| 07-24 18:50:28 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xf526b6… |
| 07-24 18:50:28 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf526b6… |
| 07-24 18:50:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xf526b6… |
| 07-13 06:54:14 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcac6a4… |
| 07-13 06:54:14 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xcac6a4… |
| 07-13 06:54:10 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x52de2f… |
| 07-13 06:54:10 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x52de2f… |
| 07-13 06:53:56 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0xd1801c… |
| 07-13 06:53:56 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0xd1801c… |
| 07-13 06:53:52 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x5e4640… |
| 07-13 06:53:52 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5e4640… |
| 07-13 06:53:47 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x59e7f6… |
| 07-13 06:53:47 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x59e7f6… |
| 07-13 06:53:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2251b2… |
| 07-13 06:53:44 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x2251b2… |
| 07-13 06:53:41 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x5c52ab… |
| 07-13 06:53:41 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5c52ab… |
| 07-13 06:53:41 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x5c52ab… |
| 07-11 14:32:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb4ce4c… |
| 07-11 14:32:44 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…82a1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb4ce4c… |
| 07-09 14:42:04 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd9fea4… |
| 07-09 14:42:04 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd9fea4… |
| 07-09 13:10:31 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x252b48… |
| 07-09 13:10:31 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x252b48… |
| 07-09 12:56:44 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xf90936… |
| 07-09 12:56:44 | (anonymous) 0x50f4…04d4 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf90936… |
| 07-09 12:56:44 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 44 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xf90936… |
| 07-08 20:21:26 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x9dd9df… |
| 07-08 20:21:26 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9dd9df… |
| 07-08 20:21:26 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 28 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9dd9df… |
| 07-08 20:21:26 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x9dd9df… |
| 07-08 15:45:22 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x02ae4c… |
| 07-08 15:45:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x02ae4c… |
| 07-08 15:45:22 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x02ae4c… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 178 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | (anonymous) 0x50f4…04d4 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 41 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | Growing-Way 0x832b…5c91 | No | SELL | 434 | 97¢ | $422 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-08 15:42:07 | (anonymous) 0xfb11…7901 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x06ec42… |
| 07-07 18:26:34 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x67fd7b… |
| 07-07 18:26:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x67fd7b… |
| 07-07 18:25:53 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa4c49b… |
| 07-07 18:25:53 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa4c49b… |
| 07-07 18:25:53 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa4c49b… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x14a918… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $41 | 0x14a918… |
| 06-29 20:06:31 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $41 | 0x802b99… |
| 06-29 20:06:31 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x802b99… |
| 06-29 20:06:07 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 42 | 97¢ | $41 | 0xc60df8… |
| 06-29 20:06:07 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc60df8… |
| 06-22 02:19:14 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x93e80b… |
| 06-22 02:19:14 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x93e80b… |
| 06-22 02:19:14 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 161 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x93e80b… |
| 06-22 02:19:14 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 101 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x93e80b… |
| 06-21 23:06:46 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x267939… |
| 06-21 23:06:46 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x267939… |
| 06-21 23:06:44 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x980a95… |
| 06-21 23:06:44 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x980a95… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc87945… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc87945… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc87945… |
| 06-20 13:08:55 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xaac823… |
| 06-20 13:08:55 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xaac823… |
| 06-20 13:07:55 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xdaec77… |
| 06-20 13:07:55 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdaec77… |
| 06-20 13:07:55 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 55 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xdaec77… |
| 06-19 23:00:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 55 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x6a8dfb… |
| 06-19 23:00:02 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 55 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x6a8dfb… |
| 06-19 13:51:01 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 160 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xe4b71c… |
| 06-19 13:51:01 | Elastic-Sleep 0xa50e…583e | Yes | SELL | 165 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xe4b71c… |
| 06-19 13:51:01 | (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe4b71c… |
| 06-19 13:48:14 | Elastic-Sleep 0xa50e…583e | Yes | BUY | 165 | 4¢ | $7 | 0x8e4458… |
| 06-19 13:48:14 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 110 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x8e4458… |
| 06-19 13:48:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $53 | 0x8e4458… |
| 06-14 18:50:40 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5fe3aa… |
| 06-14 18:50:40 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x5fe3aa… |
| 06-14 18:50:40 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5fe3aa… |
| 06-14 18:50:40 | (anonymous) 0xd990…749e | No | SELL | 90 | 96¢ | $86 | 0x5fe3aa… |
| 06-14 11:06:15 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x61b3b1… |
| 06-14 11:06:15 | (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x61b3b1… |
| 06-12 11:23:37 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2f585c… |
| 06-12 11:23:37 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x2f585c… |
| 06-12 11:20:34 | (anonymous) 0x0c67…1142 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc91b72… |
| 06-12 11:20:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc91b72… |
| 06-12 03:58:34 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x06901b… |
| 06-12 03:58:34 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x06901b… |