Realized P&L
+$124
Unrealized P&L
-$233
Hit rate
91.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
3,362
lifetime
Volume
$525.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$156
Open exposure
$20.6K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
74%
100%
+$124
Politics
14%
100%
+$9
Tech
11%
—
—
Sports
1%
50%
$-9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 86 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | No | +2,701 | $2,647 | 99¢ | $2.7K | +$36 | 06-04 11:27 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Yes | +2,917 | $2,744 | 91¢ | $2.7K | $-87 | 06-09 18:59 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Yes | -1,838 | $-1,836 | 99¢ | $-1827 | +$8 | 06-05 04:02 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Yes | +1,973 | $1,650 | 82¢ | $1.6K | $-22 | 06-09 10:25 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | Yes | -1,561 | $-1,598 | 100¢ | $-1554 | +$44 | 06-07 16:51 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | +2,365 | $1,736 | 64¢ | $1.5K | $-234 | 06-05 15:34 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Yes | +1,226 | $1,186 | 94¢ | $1.2K | $-28 | 06-09 15:41 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | -1,165 | $-1,155 | 99¢ | $-1157 | $-2 | 06-03 07:46 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -1,000 | $-1,000 | 100¢ | $-998 | +$2 | 06-04 11:01 | |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | -1,050 | $-840 | 94¢ | $-982 | $-142 | 05-28 20:18 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +750 | $681 | 92¢ | $690 | +$9 | 06-09 18:47 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +750 | $665 | 90¢ | $671 | +$6 | 06-03 20:40 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | +625 | $489 | 94¢ | $588 | +$99 | 06-09 19:06 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | +500 | $491 | 99¢ | $494 | +$2 | 06-03 07:18 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | +500 | $487 | 97¢ | $486 | $-2 | 06-09 19:25 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +344 | $329 | 99¢ | $342 | +$13 | 06-04 20:34 | |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | No | +287 | $224 | 92¢ | $263 | +$39 | 06-08 18:07 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | -252 | $-250 | 99¢ | $-251 | $-1 | 05-28 19:26 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -250 | $-235 | 93¢ | $-232 | +$3 | 06-05 16:34 | |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? | No | -226 | $-222 | 99¢ | $-224 | $-2 | 05-31 21:35 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | No | +99 | $74 | 98¢ | $96 | +$22 | 06-08 23:02 | |
| Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +65 | $61 | 94¢ | $61 | +$0 | 06-04 12:07 | |
| Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +44 | $41 | 95¢ | $42 | +$1 | 06-03 16:30 | |
| WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? | Yes | -40 | $-40 | 97¢ | $-39 | +$1 | 06-03 04:10 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -7 | $-7 | 98¢ | $-7 | +$0 | 06-01 12:24 | |
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | Yes | -62 | $-6 | 6¢ | $-4 | +$2 | 06-03 04:21 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 128 | $45.1K | 24,609 | 21,410 | +3,198 | open | — | 04-15 02:13 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 286 | $37.7K | 21,518 | 17,690 | +3,828 | open | — | 04-18 04:23 |
| fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting | 52 | $24.7K | 17,182 | 8,474 | +8,709 | open | — | 03-18 18:01 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 75 | $21.3K | 11,700 | 10,714 | +986 | open | — | 03-18 14:12 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 114 | $20.9K | 11,828 | 9,597 | +2,231 | open | — | 03-19 22:38 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | 45 | $12.5K | 8,400 | 4,314 | +4,086 | open | — | 04-23 21:37 |
| no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting | 64 | $10.8K | 7,102 | 3,966 | +3,136 | open | — | 03-19 01:40 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | 33 | $10.5K | 6,743 | 3,894 | +2,848 | open | — | 04-26 02:40 |
| si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453 | 48 | $9.6K | 5,828 | 5,487 | +341 | open | — | 01-09 01:53 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 79 | $9.2K | 8,159 | 2,043 | +6,115 | open | — | 04-28 01:12 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | 71 | $8.9K | 6,024 | 3,969 | +2,056 | open | — | 05-11 01:09 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 114 | $8.6K | 3,899 | 4,758 | -859 | open | — | 04-24 11:27 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 34 | $8.5K | 5,713 | 2,913 | +2,800 | open | — | 04-24 04:18 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? | 39 | $7.9K | 4,003 | 4,003 | +0 | open | — | 04-26 02:03 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | 63 | $7.8K | 5,715 | 3,600 | +2,115 | open | — | 05-11 01:08 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 17 | $7.3K | 4,101 | 3,441 | +661 | open | — | 04-21 14:19 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | 18 | $7.2K | 4,400 | 3,200 | +1,200 | open | — | 05-16 08:33 |
| fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412 | 37 | $7.0K | 7,283 | 322 | +6,961 | open | — | 01-26 17:23 |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | 21 | $6.9K | 3,500 | 3,500 | +0 | open | — | 05-26 16:22 |
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | 72 | $6.5K | 5,630 | 8,109 | -2,479 | open | — | 04-09 21:49 |
| will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar | 51 | $6.2K | 5,381 | 1,248 | +4,133 | open | — | 03-18 17:03 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? | 22 | $6.1K | 3,200 | 3,044 | +156 | open | — | 04-28 09:05 |
| will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268 | 39 | $6.1K | 3,690 | 3,232 | +458 | open | — | 01-20 19:09 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | 30 | $6.0K | 3,538 | 3,262 | +276 | open | — | 06-09 10:25 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | 36 | $5.9K | 3,000 | 3,000 | +0 | open | — | 05-25 05:18 |
| no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 24 | $5.9K | 5,000 | 942 | +4,058 | open | — | 01-21 22:04 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 16 | $5.0K | 2,500 | 2,499 | +1 | open | — | 05-12 15:50 |
| si hit 150 high jan 2026 | 15 | $4.8K | 2,000 | 2,888 | -888 | open | — | 01-10 03:22 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | 13 | $4.7K | 2,500 | 2,625 | -125 | open | — | 06-09 19:06 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | 19 | $4.6K | 1,550 | 3,111 | -1,561 | open | — | 06-07 16:51 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 157 | $817.6K | 13,737 | 06-09 21:24 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 151 | $20.5K | 3,818 | 06-09 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 138 | $10.6K | 7,064 | 06-09 20:59 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 135 | $16.9M | 23,918 | 06-09 21:39 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 130 | $228.6K | 1,433 | 06-09 03:33 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 106 | $203.1K | 17,438 | 06-01 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 100 | $48.7K | 19,303 | 04-26 14:47 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | 97 | $6.57K | 1,264 | 03-27 21:25 |