Realized P&L
+$124
Unrealized P&L
-$221
Hit rate
91.7%
Resolved
8
Trades
5,154
lifetime
Volume
$844.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$164
Open exposure
$15.7K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 21:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
62%
100%
+$124
Tech
17%
—
—
Sports
12%
50%
$-9
Politics
9%
100%
+$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 130 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | No | +2,670 | $2,325 | 96¢ | $2.6K | +$252 | 07-14 15:38 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -2,150 | $-2,054 | 96¢ | $-2063 | $-9 | 07-03 06:41 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? | No | +1,846 | $1,754 | 97¢ | $1.8K | +$40 | 07-03 20:34 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | No | +1,691 | $1,640 | 97¢ | $1.6K | +$6 | 07-15 13:13 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | No | +1,508 | $1,458 | 97¢ | $1.5K | +$10 | 07-09 21:56 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? | No | +1,501 | $1,445 | 97¢ | $1.5K | +$16 | 07-09 21:55 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | No | +868 | $934 | 87¢ | $758 | $-176 | 07-21 15:25 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -700 | $-618 | 94¢ | $-662 | $-44 | 06-11 02:29 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? | No | -434 | $-422 | 97¢ | $-420 | +$2 | 07-08 15:42 | |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | -440 | $-405 | 93¢ | $-409 | $-4 | 07-22 03:08 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | +677 | $526 | 48¢ | $328 | $-197 | 07-17 14:58 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +320 | $264 | 92¢ | $296 | +$32 | 07-20 07:38 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +287 | $238 | 95¢ | $273 | +$35 | 07-10 19:05 | |
| Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | -289 | $-265 | 94¢ | $-273 | $-7 | 06-11 21:32 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | +510 | $504 | 38¢ | $196 | $-308 | 07-16 04:26 | |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | -200 | $-192 | 96¢ | $-191 | +$1 | 07-21 20:08 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +200 | $182 | 92¢ | $183 | +$1 | 07-10 12:16 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | -139 | $-137 | 98¢ | $-137 | +$0 | 06-25 11:56 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | No | -135 | $-214 | 100¢ | $-134 | +$80 | 07-12 01:42 | |
| Will Trump resign before 2027? | No | +130 | $123 | 96¢ | $125 | +$2 | 07-18 19:19 | |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | No | +105 | $50 | 91¢ | $95 | +$46 | 06-18 20:45 | |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | -114 | $-91 | 80¢ | $-91 | +$1 | 07-19 16:28 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | No | -53 | $-50 | 98¢ | $-52 | $-2 | 06-21 19:54 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | Yes | -511 | $-36 | 7¢ | $-36 | +$0 | 07-21 05:24 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -7 | $-7 | 98¢ | $-7 | $-0 | 06-01 12:24 | |
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | Yes | -62 | $-6 | 5¢ | $-3 | +$3 | 06-03 04:21 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 128 | $45.1K | 24,609 | 21,410 | +3,198 | open | — | 04-15 02:13 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 286 | $37.7K | 21,518 | 17,690 | +3,828 | open | — | 04-18 04:23 |
| fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting | 52 | $24.7K | 17,182 | 8,474 | +8,709 | open | — | 03-18 18:01 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 75 | $21.3K | 11,700 | 10,714 | +986 | open | — | 03-18 14:12 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 114 | $20.9K | 11,828 | 9,597 | +2,231 | open | — | 03-19 22:38 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | 62 | $20.7K | 15,728 | 6,512 | +9,216 | open | — | 06-12 19:18 |
| will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30 | 76 | $19.0K | 11,021 | 9,112 | +1,909 | open | — | 06-30 07:14 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | 37 | $17.2K | 14,600 | 3,048 | +11,552 | open | — | 06-12 19:17 |
| will lionel messi score 13 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701232556159 | 39 | $13.8K | 7,949 | 6,110 | +1,839 | open | — | 07-19 21:36 |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | 37 | $13.2K | 7,300 | 7,563 | -264 | open | — | 07-21 15:25 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | 45 | $12.5K | 8,400 | 4,314 | +4,086 | open | — | 04-23 21:37 |
| will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30 | 28 | $11.0K | 6,554 | 4,664 | +1,890 | open | — | 06-29 23:34 |
| no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting | 64 | $10.8K | 7,102 | 3,966 | +3,136 | open | — | 03-19 01:40 |
| spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t | 39 | $10.7K | 6,830 | 4,750 | +2,080 | open | — | 06-12 19:19 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | 33 | $10.5K | 6,743 | 3,894 | +2,848 | open | — | 04-26 02:40 |
| si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453 | 48 | $9.6K | 5,828 | 5,487 | +341 | open | — | 01-09 01:53 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | 65 | $9.5K | 4,796 | 4,931 | -135 | open | — | 07-12 01:42 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 79 | $9.2K | 8,159 | 2,043 | +6,115 | open | — | 04-28 01:12 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | 25 | $9.2K | 4,865 | 5,031 | -166 | open | — | 06-12 19:16 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | 71 | $8.9K | 6,024 | 3,969 | +2,056 | open | — | 05-11 01:09 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | 60 | $8.7K | 5,198 | 5,383 | -185 | open | — | 06-12 18:50 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 114 | $8.6K | 3,899 | 4,758 | -859 | open | — | 04-24 11:27 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 34 | $8.5K | 5,713 | 2,913 | +2,800 | open | — | 04-24 04:18 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 36 | $8.1K | 4,498 | 4,210 | +287 | open | — | 07-10 19:05 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | 25 | $8.1K | 6,537 | 1,772 | +4,765 | open | — | 06-12 15:37 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? | 39 | $7.9K | 4,003 | 4,003 | +0 | open | — | 04-26 02:03 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | 63 | $7.8K | 5,715 | 3,600 | +2,115 | open | — | 05-11 01:08 |
| will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt4t by june 30 98 | 32 | $7.8K | 4,501 | 3,615 | +886 | open | — | 06-30 12:50 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | 30 | $7.4K | 5,636 | 2,466 | +3,170 | open | — | 07-14 15:38 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 17 | $7.3K | 4,101 | 3,441 | +661 | open | — | 04-21 14:19 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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