Realized P&L
+$669
Unrealized P&L
+$94
Hit rate
68.5%
Resolved
193
Trades
166,590
lifetime
Volume
$359.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$490
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 07-20 18:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
54% 27% $-13
Politics
34% 39% +$660
Crypto
7% 43% +$31
Tech
4% 0% $-8
Sports
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 794 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -73 $-82 57¢ $-42 +$40 06-03 08:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -92 $-16 44¢ $-41 $-25 06-25 13:47
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No -108 $-30 31¢ $-34 $-4 06-25 10:52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -604 $-40 $-26 +$14 06-29 04:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $9 26¢ $26 +$16 06-14 22:03
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Yes -72 $-10 30¢ $-22 $-12 05-31 19:53
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes -100 $-10 20¢ $-20 $-10 06-24 12:16
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes -201 $-18 $-17 +$1 07-09 10:44
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -200 $-17 $-16 +$0 07-01 12:41
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $4 16¢ $16 +$12 06-26 08:47
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes +100 $7 16¢ $16 +$8 06-03 00:19
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? Yes +100 $10 14¢ $14 +$4 06-26 07:13
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes -189 $-12 $-14 $-2 07-03 13:05
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +200 $16 $13 $-3 06-11 21:33
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes -179 $-27 $-12 +$15 07-01 15:14
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No -100 $-8 12¢ $-12 $-3 06-30 21:09
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes +190 $15 $11 $-4 06-26 12:16
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -194 $-16 $-11 +$5 07-02 06:33
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +101 $8 11¢ $11 +$3 06-09 15:55
Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes -195 $-7 $-11 $-4 07-11 07:13
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Yes -100 $-15 11¢ $-11 +$4 07-06 11:01
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +100 $3 11¢ $11 +$8 06-22 13:55
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes +191 $10 $11 +$1 06-26 23:28
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Yes +156 $12 $11 $-1 06-11 05:12
Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +161 $15 $10 $-5 06-02 23:52
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes +156 $8 $10 +$2 06-30 03:03
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? Yes -100 $-35 10¢ $-10 +$24 06-30 03:31
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? Yes -38 $-24 27¢ $-10 +$14 07-02 12:01
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes -200 $-11 $-10 +$1 06-29 12:22
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +183 $16 $10 $-6 06-11 21:33