Double-Valley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$669

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

193

Trades

166,669

lifetime

Volume

$359.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 08-09 14:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

54% 27% $-13

Politics

34% 39% +$660

Crypto

7% 43% +$31

Tech

4% 0% $-8

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 794 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	270	$2.7K	17,195	17,084	+111	open	—	01-23 08:28
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	486	$2.5K	29,297	28,299	+998	open	—	01-26 19:36
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	498	$2.5K	30,950	30,721	+229	open	—	01-27 01:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	607	$2.4K	23,324	23,000	+323	open	—	03-30 02:24
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	417	$2.4K	25,455	25,378	+77	open	—	01-24 20:37
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1,090	$2.3K	45,694	45,663	+31	open	—	03-04 18:31
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	688	$2.3K	23,730	23,652	+78	open	—	03-04 19:25
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	300	$2.0K	15,295	15,039	+256	open	—	01-23 07:04
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	332	$1.9K	17,605	18,086	-481	open	—	03-04 16:08
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	433	$1.6K	12,125	11,897	+227	open	—	04-27 17:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	412	$1.5K	17,762	17,534	+228	open	—	05-29 21:47
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	211	$1.4K	13,453	13,551	-98	open	—	01-24 06:11
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	274	$1.4K	18,234	17,358	+875	open	—	01-29 23:01
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	508	$1.4K	13,055	12,406	+648	open	—	04-28 03:36
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	312	$1.3K	10,980	10,804	+177	open	—	05-01 09:07
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	691	$1.3K	15,867	15,547	+321	open	—	03-13 22:02
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	385	$1.3K	16,048	15,722	+326	open	—	05-13 15:32
trump out as president by march 31	627	$1.2K	24,938	24,736	+202	open	—	03-29 08:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	502	$1.2K	16,414	16,403	+11	open	—	04-16 09:55
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	213	$1.1K	14,221	14,293	-72	open	—	01-29 21:45
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	244	$1.1K	10,283	10,420	-138	open	—	03-04 16:10
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	410	$1.1K	16,269	16,227	+42	open	—	03-31 22:23
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	134	$1.1K	8,342	8,073	+269	open	—	01-14 02:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	560	$1.1K	19,826	19,369	+457	open	—	03-29 23:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	273	$1.1K	10,452	10,452	+0	open	—	06-29 02:51
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	322	$1.0K	13,583	13,110	+473	open	—	05-29 21:30
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	189	$1.0K	7,704	7,374	+330	open	—	04-02 18:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	232	$1.0K	10,648	10,545	+103	open	—	03-04 16:17
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	264	$1.0K	12,429	13,064	-635	open	—	01-30 01:29
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	387	$1.0K	10,940	10,692	+249	Yes	+$3	04-28 06:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 14:53:24	Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x63eb0c…
08-09 05:05:09	Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Yes	SELL	52	4¢	$2	0xcadca9…
08-08 18:11:19	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xdad406…
08-07 11:20:07	Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x4a8285…
08-07 03:54:00	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x6406b0…
08-06 18:53:11	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	27	9¢	$2	0x8a365a…
08-06 17:19:23	Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x3613bd…
08-06 00:38:12	Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x83d59e…
08-05 19:07:35	will bangladesh recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	158	4¢	$6	0x230590…
08-04 23:38:45	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0x4a6573…
08-04 16:05:36	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xc41244…
08-04 10:16:45	Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x32f3d5…
08-04 10:14:35	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	92	3¢	$2	0x81d5cb…
08-03 23:47:30	Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x385c76…
08-03 23:47:24	StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x58395f…
08-03 08:37:39	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xfc485f…
07-31 19:28:17	Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	44	9¢	$4	0xfc8b48…
07-31 17:10:32	Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x73d7c3…
07-31 16:07:08	will papertrade launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	72	12¢	$9	0x05bd2d…
07-31 10:35:35	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0xe6f24e…
07-31 10:34:09	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0xe8aedb…
07-31 10:34:09	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0xbd7052…
07-31 06:24:38	NATO dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x556ce8…
07-31 03:44:47	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x82048b…
07-31 01:07:54	Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	1¢	$1	0x11c1e3…
07-30 21:44:21	Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?	Yes	SELL	74	8¢	$6	0x4a321f…
07-30 19:54:14	Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0xba4903…
07-30 12:34:09	Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x667d5e…
07-30 11:33:44	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xf79335…
07-30 04:10:47	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x179b51…
07-30 00:06:05	Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xf33b6d…
07-28 22:33:41	Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	27	14¢	$4	0x17a3ab…
07-28 20:12:41	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	2¢	$1	0x33d88c…
07-28 12:48:41	Dreamcash FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	4¢	$1	0x509692…
07-28 07:29:25	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x5abe25…
07-27 21:05:54	Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?	Yes	SELL	191	3¢	$6	0x9006a8…
07-27 20:24:01	Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x77bc97…
07-27 18:38:30	Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	97	2¢	$1	0x4eedde…
07-27 12:12:45	Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	4¢	$3	0x70fba5…
07-27 04:29:28	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x84338e…
07-27 02:59:12	Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xd85897…
07-26 23:15:15	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xeffb1b…
07-26 21:34:58	Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x16a13f…
07-26 16:47:00	Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x71d1c8…
07-26 14:26:40	Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0xb2e346…
07-25 19:19:42	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x9385f0…
07-25 19:00:33	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x61d59f…
07-25 19:00:24	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x0f8d71…
07-25 19:00:16	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xd5aa40…
07-25 19:00:13	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xdfb800…
07-25 18:59:10	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x8b8b4c…
07-25 12:30:45	Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xd55737…
07-25 04:01:16	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	134	3¢	$4	0x9d8d03…
07-24 20:31:00	will recep tayyip erdogan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950080	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$1	0xc7334d…
07-24 19:14:06	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?	Yes	SELL	108	7¢	$8	0xb44c48…
07-24 18:50:28	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xf526b6…
07-24 15:07:24	Obama arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	3¢	$1	0x493b32…
07-24 09:39:06	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	SELL	85	6¢	$5	0x056ec6…
07-24 07:55:15	Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x437b94…
07-23 19:23:52	Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x74415a…
07-23 17:43:22	Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$0	0x802555…
07-23 13:58:19	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0x7e2a63…
07-23 12:44:21	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x739c37…
07-23 01:40:16	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x9a8372…
07-22 23:24:55	trump meets with putin by september 30	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0x9654fc…
07-22 19:40:39	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x41428f…
07-22 18:05:22	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xb058e3…
07-22 13:51:01	Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	98	2¢	$2	0xf3e5fd…
07-22 11:37:24	StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x62e7de…
07-22 08:09:39	Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x627e84…
07-22 00:51:39	OKX IPO in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x4ba138…
07-21 22:03:46	Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xf807be…
07-21 22:00:09	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xe481d5…
07-21 18:54:37	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0xdbe6af…
07-21 15:09:40	Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0x3187bb…
07-21 14:21:33	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x7405b2…
07-21 14:21:27	Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x455d60…
07-21 06:28:46	putin and zelenskyy shake hands by august 31	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x4149ad…
07-21 05:29:34	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0xc53990…
07-20 18:51:55	Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x88326f…
07-20 18:43:09	Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	SELL	70	6¢	$4	0x1a0d13…
07-20 18:20:34	trump on 250 bill this year	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xc5919d…
07-20 13:57:31	Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x9487a3…
07-20 10:41:28	Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x08f633…
07-20 07:54:45	Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x09197c…
07-19 19:30:03	Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x15325e…
07-18 23:27:37	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x212e9d…
07-18 04:02:54	Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x12a114…
07-18 00:16:22	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	5¢	$2	0xf95825…
07-17 17:18:13	Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x005fb1…
07-17 17:13:15	Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31?	Yes	SELL	41	6¢	$2	0x38aed9…
07-17 10:02:33	Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xe494dc…
07-17 03:30:10	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0x1592d4…
07-17 03:16:24	Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x501064…
07-16 15:22:47	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	65	4¢	$3	0x8a248f…
07-16 11:37:10	Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	131	1¢	$1	0x14751e…
07-16 08:53:11	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xbfdbed…
07-15 16:50:56	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x75aecf…
07-15 14:37:11	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x002c3c…
07-15 14:36:49	Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xff3a51…