Realized P&L
+$669
Unrealized P&L
+$301
Hit rate
68.5%
Resolved
193
Trades
166,324
lifetime
Volume
$358.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$595
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 06-30 12:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
54% 27% $-13
Politics
34% 39% +$660
Crypto
7% 43% +$31
Tech
4% 0% $-8
Sports
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 794 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +121 $-11 99¢ $119 +$130 06-20 05:06
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? No -108 $-30 31¢ $-34 $-4 06-25 10:52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -604 $-40 $-32 +$8 06-29 04:49
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No -85 $-40 36¢ $-31 +$9 06-18 11:45
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -73 $-82 32¢ $-23 +$58 06-03 08:56
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes -100 $-10 22¢ $-22 $-12 06-24 12:16
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes +181 $10 11¢ $21 +$11 06-25 21:30
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes +100 $9 20¢ $20 +$10 06-25 07:39
Will Variational launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $0 19¢ $19 +$19 06-21 11:34
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +200 $18 10¢ $19 +$1 06-24 21:42
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes +100 $10 17¢ $17 +$7 06-25 18:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -92 $-16 18¢ $-16 $-1 06-25 13:47
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes +100 $7 15¢ $15 +$8 06-03 00:19
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes +156 $8 10¢ $15 +$7 06-30 03:03
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Yes -84 $-14 18¢ $-15 $-0 06-27 20:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $9 14¢ $14 +$4 06-14 22:03
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Yes +156 $12 $13 +$1 06-11 05:12
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +200 $16 $13 $-3 06-11 21:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes -200 $-11 $-13 $-2 06-29 12:22
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes +190 $15 $12 $-3 06-26 12:16
Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +161 $15 $12 $-3 06-02 23:52
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +100 $3 12¢ $12 +$9 06-22 13:55
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes -147 $-15 $-12 +$3 06-23 19:10
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Yes +100 $9 12¢ $12 +$2 06-28 17:15
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +100 $6 11¢ $11 +$6 05-29 08:52
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes +191 $10 $11 +$2 06-26 23:28
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +101 $8 11¢ $11 +$3 06-09 15:55
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $10 11¢ $11 +$1 06-19 08:18
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +100 $6 11¢ $11 +$5 06-26 07:15
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? Yes -100 $-35 11¢ $-11 +$24 06-30 03:31