Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$3,125
Trades
193
Unique wallets
44
Liquidity
$5,580
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 08-21 19:57
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $0 | $775 | $774 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 17 | $14 | $489 | $475 |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $4 | $300 | $296 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $0 | $75 | $75 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $8 | $216 | $208 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $0 | $498 | $497 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 7 | $3 | $89 | $86 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $5 | $20 | $15 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $239 | $239 |
| unranked | 15 | $2 | $575 | $573 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +169 | $2 | $2 | 6 | 08-21 19:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | +107 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-06 13:49 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +105 | $103 | $103 | 2 | 08-06 13:49 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +61 | $67 | $871 | 18 | 08-21 19:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x2b35…8ad5 | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-26 11:39 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +41 | $1 | $3 | 12 | 08-21 19:57 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +38 | $37 | $37 | 2 | 07-31 10:48 |
| Another-Exhaust 0x3231…24ae | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 9 | 07-08 03:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | +16 | $11 | $381 | 2 | 08-11 16:08 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +13 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-26 11:39 |
| Kindly-Noodles 0x8c68…219f | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-11 16:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-06 13:49 |
| Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | +3 | $1 | $3 | 6 | 08-04 15:36 |
| Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-31 07:47 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 19:57:22 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x306469… |
| 08-21 19:57:22 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x306469… |
| 08-21 19:57:19 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x907578… |
| 08-21 19:57:19 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x907578… |
| 08-21 19:57:15 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2a932d… |
| 08-21 19:57:15 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2a932d… |
| 08-21 19:57:10 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6f1114… |
| 08-21 19:57:10 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6f1114… |
| 08-21 19:57:07 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe804de… |
| 08-21 19:57:07 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe804de… |
| 08-21 19:57:07 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 19 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe804de… |
| 08-21 19:50:12 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa047f5… |
| 08-21 19:50:12 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa047f5… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 351 | 98¢ | $344 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 39 | 98¢ | $38 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | SELL | 32 | 98¢ | $31 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x819632… |
| 08-21 19:49:40 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x819632… |
| 08-11 16:09:57 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 139 | 98¢ | $136 | 0x30c56c… |
| 08-11 16:09:57 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 139 | 98¢ | $136 | 0x30c56c… |
| 08-11 16:09:52 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 38 | 98¢ | $37 | 0x6f1a30… |
| 08-11 16:09:52 | Kindly-Noodles 0x8c68…219f | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x6f1a30… |
| 08-11 16:09:52 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 43 | 98¢ | $42 | 0x6f1a30… |
| 08-11 16:08:48 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4eb013… |
| 08-11 16:08:48 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | SELL | 188 | 98¢ | $185 | 0x4eb013… |
| 08-11 16:08:48 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 182 | 98¢ | $179 | 0x4eb013… |
| 08-07 15:18:58 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xed459b… |
| 08-07 15:18:58 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xed459b… |
| 08-07 14:43:51 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3173a2… |
| 08-07 14:43:51 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3173a2… |
| 08-07 14:43:51 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 36 | 98¢ | $35 | 0x3173a2… |
| 08-07 14:43:51 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3173a2… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | BUY | 107 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x472092… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x35efd9… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 101 | 98¢ | $99 | 0x472092… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x472092… |
| 08-06 13:49:20 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x35efd9… |
| 08-06 13:49:14 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 17 | 98¢ | $16 | 0xe2903e… |
| 08-06 13:49:14 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 17 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe2903e… |
| 08-04 15:48:15 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x2318ff… |
| 08-04 15:48:15 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 0 | 98¢ | $0 | 0x2318ff… |
| 08-04 15:36:15 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9e12a3… |
| 08-04 15:36:15 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9e12a3… |
| 08-04 15:36:15 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 18 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa0d18b… |
| 08-04 15:36:15 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 18 | 98¢ | $18 | 0xa0d18b… |
| 08-04 15:35:59 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 22 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa59895… |
| 08-04 15:35:59 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 40 | 98¢ | $39 | 0xa59895… |
| 08-04 15:35:59 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 18 | 98¢ | $18 | 0xa59895… |
| 08-04 10:35:42 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xaac876… |
| 08-04 10:35:42 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xaac876… |
| 08-04 10:35:42 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc4f583… |
| 08-04 10:35:42 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc4f583… |
| 07-31 10:48:21 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x5f33ae… |
| 07-31 10:48:21 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5f33ae… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 18 | 96¢ | $18 | 0xc9d655… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x2b0664… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 62 | 96¢ | $60 | 0x2b0664… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 18 | 96¢ | $18 | 0xc9d655… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x2b0664… |
| 07-31 10:40:23 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x51e5a6… |
| 07-31 10:40:23 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x51e5a6… |
| 07-31 10:36:11 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x674069… |
| 07-31 10:36:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x674069… |
| 07-31 10:35:35 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0xe6f24e… |
| 07-31 10:35:35 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 19 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xe6f24e… |
| 07-31 10:35:35 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xe6f24e… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 57 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xbd7052… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 61 | 97¢ | $60 | 0xbd7052… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 62 | 97¢ | $60 | 0xe8aedb… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 62 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe8aedb… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xbd7052… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 42 | 98¢ | $41 | 0xb25c4f… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xc094c3… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc094c3… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 26 | 98¢ | $25 | 0xb25c4f… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | BUY | 16 | 98¢ | $16 | 0xb25c4f… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 36 | 98¢ | $35 | 0xc094c3… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xc094c3… |
| 07-27 20:06:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x850fdf… |
| 07-27 20:06:51 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x850fdf… |
| 07-26 11:39:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc78c84… |
| 07-26 11:39:24 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc78c84… |
| 07-26 11:39:24 | (anonymous) 0x2b35…8ad5 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0xc78c84… |
| 07-26 11:39:24 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 8 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc78c84… |
| 07-26 00:45:40 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xdbc64d… |
| 07-26 00:45:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdbc64d… |
| 07-26 00:45:36 | Bewitched-Auditorium 0x721a…9295 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xba32b2… |
| 07-26 00:45:36 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 11 | 99¢ | $11 | 0xba32b2… |
| 07-26 00:45:12 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x9fcefa… |
| 07-26 00:45:12 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9fcefa… |
| 07-26 00:45:12 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0x9fcefa… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x752a9e… |
| 07-25 19:19:09 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x752a9e… |
| 07-25 19:19:07 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x30fa10… |
| 07-25 19:19:07 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x30fa10… |
| 07-24 17:35:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc14406… |