Likable-Mention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.80K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

29.4%

Resolved

829

Trades

2,956

lifetime

Volume

$54.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 10-24 18:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

68% 5% -$1,241

Politics

24% 3% -$5,427

Crypto

6% 6% -$26

Sports

1% 17% -$28

Tech

1% 0% -$60

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will jd vance visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126059	No		+0	$1	96¢	$0	-$1	07-30 05:10
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	07-25 15:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	11	$11.0K	9,961	9,961	+0	No	+$0	04-12 13:48
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$5.5K	7,030	0	+7,030	Yes	-$5,533	04-13 10:44
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	7	$208	110	110	+0	No	-$1	07-31 17:00
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	2	$184	101	101	+0	Yes	+$18	06-22 19:02
will russia capture sofiivka by december 31	8	$180	150	150	+0	Yes	-$11	07-30 09:00
will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	4	$178	100	100	+0	open	—	07-26 13:50
Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	7	$171	140	140	+0	open	—	08-08 04:16
trump declassifies new ufo files by august 31 20260710184334567	5	$167	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	07-30 08:45
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	3	$163	91	91	+0	open	—	07-25 14:40
grmn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 2pt29	3	$148	100	100	+0	Yes	-$8	07-25 10:51
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	4	$147	128	128	+0	Yes	+$47	06-20 22:02
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$136	70	70	+0	No	$0	07-28 16:53
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	6	$135	120	120	+0	open	—	08-03 20:25
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$135	70	70	+0	Yes	-$1	05-29 06:33
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	4	$132	80	80	+0	open	—	08-01 06:27
will trump visit north korea by december 31	4	$132	70	70	+0	open	—	07-28 02:23
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$129	78	78	+0	No	-$10	05-30 06:47
Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?	4	$128	70	70	+0	Yes	-$1	07-29 14:45
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	5	$123	63	63	+0	open	—	07-25 12:48
netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	9	$122	110	110	+0	No	-$1	08-01 10:47
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	4	$118	70	70	+0	No	-$5	07-28 19:44
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$117	80	80	+0	open	—	07-30 10:05
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	5	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	08-10 13:20
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	2	$112	58	58	+0	Yes	-$1	05-27 08:17
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	6	$111	105	105	+0	Yes	-$5	07-29 07:10
Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?	4	$111	70	70	+0	Yes	-$9	08-01 20:37
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	9	$109	58	58	+0	No	+$0	05-27 12:41
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	4	$108	98	98	+0	No	-$4	07-28 23:36
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	4	$105	100	100	+0	No	-$18	07-30 15:21
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$104	66	66	+0	No	-$10	05-30 07:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 18:35:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	587	17¢	$100	0xf04acf…
08-31 12:49:49	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7fb71a…
08-30 02:36:27	Will Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xa5ee8e…
08-29 03:27:09	Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x20f129…
08-29 02:17:27	Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x017eb3…
08-28 17:49:06	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xb0421d…
08-28 17:49:03	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xde942a…
08-28 12:15:51	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in August?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x08994c…
08-28 12:15:46	Will the Republican Party win the TX-14 House seat?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xf91df5…
08-26 14:16:04	Will the Republican Party win the TX-14 House seat?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x25e4df…
08-26 08:12:22	Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in August?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xe36f2b…
08-24 23:27:07	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x9357fe…
08-23 18:13:28	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x12bab4…
08-23 15:07:09	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in August?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xbf1024…
08-23 13:23:22	Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in August?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x092354…
08-23 10:27:06	Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x1347a9…
08-23 10:23:25	Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x934426…
08-23 07:06:06	Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xa65f78…
08-23 07:01:46	Noble FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xe5d102…
08-22 15:59:42	Theo James announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xbc5a6d…
08-22 06:35:49	Theo James announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0xf12029…
08-21 22:27:06	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?	No	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0xc5bdd1…
08-21 22:17:07	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x9a1c91…
08-21 21:42:27	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?	No	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x41b2de…
08-21 21:17:09	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5675c3…
08-21 14:34:13	will russia enter mykolaivka by december 31 2026 20260805154948091	No	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x461f35…
08-21 10:43:00	will russia enter mykolaivka by december 31 2026 20260805154948091	No	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0xb69627…
08-21 09:57:09	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0x06b160…
08-21 09:52:46	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf1b465…
08-21 06:07:45	Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xd6c1f5…
08-21 06:07:39	Will Valve add first CS2 operation by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x5270db…
08-21 06:07:36	Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xb70125…
08-21 01:50:19	Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xde2d1d…
08-20 16:06:28	Will Valve add first CS2 operation by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x13eef8…
08-20 13:00:52	Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x84a7cf…
08-20 07:23:19	Will Renée Good be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xbf7aaf…
08-20 07:23:12	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x4bd3ce…
08-20 07:23:07	Will the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xef9532…
08-20 07:23:03	Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x057b58…
08-20 07:22:58	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x26223a…
08-20 07:22:51	Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x18e584…
08-20 06:07:06	Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x40da16…
08-20 05:57:10	will iran recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x0131bb…
08-20 05:47:52	will iran recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x10e028…
08-20 03:17:06	Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x92db22…
08-19 19:06:34	Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x26cba9…
08-19 16:36:49	Will Renée Good be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x57e6ac…
08-19 00:57:09	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$1	0xf3a471…
08-19 00:51:54	will base launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd0a1d8…
08-18 21:44:04	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x106a7d…
08-18 16:35:51	Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x1aa474…
08-18 15:36:07	Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x0a8c46…
08-18 15:31:46	Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x23abd9…
08-18 12:57:06	Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$3	0x5acd00…
08-18 12:53:16	Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xd82f14…
08-18 12:52:28	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xf4e359…
08-18 09:17:07	Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xc07fbf…
08-18 09:09:13	Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xc3340b…
08-18 07:17:06	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xbb14d0…
08-18 07:14:46	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xd15002…
08-17 22:07:10	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x0c3835…
08-17 21:57:45	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xfb8857…
08-17 20:10:09	Will the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7b731a…
08-17 19:27:13	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xdcf226…
08-17 19:22:12	Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xb1e895…
08-17 19:18:16	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xae6fd6…
08-17 17:27:07	Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xea8d08…
08-17 17:18:15	Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xe7cceb…
08-17 16:57:09	Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x2d162c…
08-17 16:55:46	Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x7ffca4…
08-17 16:06:34	Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0xab3d6d…
08-17 13:21:46	Will Group B be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x2bf238…
08-17 07:19:37	Will Group B be the group of the EWC CS2 2026 Champion?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xdec18f…
08-17 04:46:25	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xf4a7b9…
08-17 04:46:15	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x602a6f…
08-17 04:46:13	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xbe5603…
08-17 04:42:51	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x1cddda…
08-17 01:57:45	Theo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x3c60df…
08-17 01:57:40	Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x6a1fd9…
08-17 01:57:34	will relay launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x577b14…
08-17 01:57:28	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$5	0xb21e08…
08-16 22:29:34	will relay launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xc7ba23…
08-16 20:30:13	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xd3b0d1…
08-16 19:07:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xd38da3…
08-16 18:58:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xd5f6af…
08-16 16:47:09	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x5c1d15…
08-16 16:38:33	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x96ab08…
08-16 16:00:55	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xcaef1e…
08-16 16:00:51	will ansem dip to 0pt04 before 2027	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x26ef0e…
08-16 16:00:28	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xe8a86a…
08-16 14:57:06	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat?	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xf5932b…
08-16 14:47:13	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xadc970…
08-16 10:08:01	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x80d4ac…
08-16 05:23:09	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xfc8da5…
08-16 04:50:40	Huddle FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$1	0xfc52fe…
08-16 02:57:04	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x14ccd5…
08-16 02:56:21	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0xe38101…
08-16 02:37:07	will trump attend ufc 331 1786408571397	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xe7caf8…
08-16 02:34:03	will trump attend ufc 331 1786408571397	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0x8a35ca…
08-16 02:17:16	will ansem dip to 0pt04 before 2027	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x7b9eab…