Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
open
Total volume
$4,483
$720 in 24h
Trades
222
Unique wallets
59
Liquidity
$15,529
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-19 03:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $25 | $796 | $772 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $22 | $795 | $774 |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $21 | $866 | $845 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 34 | $197 | $316 | $118 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $17 | $785 | $768 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| Median | 15 | $2 | $131 | $129 |
| Below median | 6 | $11 | — | +$11 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $5 | $17 | $12 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $29 | — | +$29 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $186 | $186 |
| unranked | 23 | $191 | $1.7K | $1.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x4a8b…48d0 | Yes | +813 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-10 15:12 |
| Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | +641 | $607 | $607 | 12 | 06-11 16:06 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +616 | $575 | $990 | 11 | 06-19 03:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xdf2a…637c | Yes | +490 | $101 | $116 | 7 | 06-10 16:21 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +297 | $19 | $19 | 6 | 06-11 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xea07…c982 | No | +213 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| Far-Flung-Transom 0xf6c6…7d80 | No | +186 | $175 | $175 | 1 | 06-11 01:13 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +108 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-10 15:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | +68 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-10 19:53 |
| Embarrassed-Parchment 0xe7c2…be3e | Yes | +65 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 03:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x02d8…abad | Yes | +60 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 19:53 |
| Quixotic-Story 0x7dc9…525e | Yes | +47 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | +40 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +36 | $1 | $25 | 43 | 06-19 03:01 |
| Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | +35 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 12:09 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +28 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-10 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe061…28a6 | No | +27 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-10 22:50 |
| Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | +26 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 16:09 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +21 | $-1 | $21 | 28 | 06-16 12:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x589f…4046 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 19:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ed6…9ceb | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-10 19:36 |
| Elastic-Sturgeon 0x69e4…1b82 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-08 20:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-10 17:08 |
| Poor-Tavern 0x8304…f086 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-11 01:40 |
| Flawless-Bungalow 0x7f70…ae05 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| Intentional-Manager 0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 21:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +10 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xae61…b5c0 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 09:26 |
| Fluid-Cappuccino 0xf2fa…4a62 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 06-12 15:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 03:01:04 | Embarrassed-Parchment 0xe7c2…be3e | Yes | BUY | 65 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x9d720a… |
| 06-19 03:01:04 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 47 | 95¢ | $44 | 0x9d720a… |
| 06-19 03:01:04 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x9d720a… |
| 06-18 16:45:40 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4e27f0… |
| 06-18 16:45:40 | (anonymous) 0xa23f…cf6f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4e27f0… |
| 06-18 15:51:19 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xecbff3… |
| 06-18 15:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xecbff3… |
| 06-18 15:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xa23f…cf6f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xecbff3… |
| 06-16 16:53:07 | (anonymous) 0xdb78…7d84 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcaf7d5… |
| 06-16 16:53:07 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcaf7d5… |
| 06-16 12:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x0b89fb… |
| 06-16 12:09:16 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x0b89fb… |
| 06-16 12:09:16 | Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x0b89fb… |
| 06-16 11:05:43 | Buttery-Sparerib-Penalty 0x15d5…8903 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1e6a0b… |
| 06-16 11:05:43 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1e6a0b… |
| 06-16 02:12:42 | (anonymous) 0x29c9…e751 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x978a51… |
| 06-16 02:12:42 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x978a51… |
| 06-15 19:01:24 | Unsung-Deviation 0x9535…ccdc | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6990b4… |
| 06-15 19:01:24 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6990b4… |
| 06-15 09:14:27 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x4d1147… |
| 06-15 09:14:27 | (anonymous) 0x29c9…e751 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x4d1147… |
| 06-15 09:14:27 | (anonymous) 0xa2bf…fbe7 | No | SELL | 35 | 95¢ | $33 | 0x4d1147… |
| 06-15 09:12:36 | (anonymous) 0xa2bf…fbe7 | No | BUY | 35 | 95¢ | $33 | 0x924dfa… |
| 06-15 09:12:36 | (anonymous) 0x29c9…e751 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x924dfa… |
| 06-15 03:57:21 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x42face… |
| 06-15 03:57:21 | Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | SELL | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x42face… |
| 06-15 03:57:21 | Scaly-Arena 0x0aa0…04a3 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x42face… |
| 06-15 03:57:21 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 72 | 96¢ | $69 | 0x42face… |
| 06-14 05:25:01 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd69c3d… |
| 06-14 05:25:01 | (anonymous) 0xdb78…7d84 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd69c3d… |
| 06-13 21:17:39 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9366d6… |
| 06-13 21:17:39 | (anonymous) 0xdb78…7d84 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x9366d6… |
| 06-12 15:16:58 | Fluid-Cappuccino 0xf2fa…4a62 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x84a09c… |
| 06-12 15:16:58 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x84a09c… |
| 06-12 07:48:25 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4e3e38… |
| 06-12 07:48:25 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4e3e38… |
| 06-12 07:48:25 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4e3e38… |
| 06-12 07:48:25 | Nutritious-Brush-Inspector 0x5979…7fbd | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x4e3e38… |
| 06-12 02:52:37 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0x56ae3e… |
| 06-12 02:52:37 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 179 | 95¢ | $169 | 0x56ae3e… |
| 06-12 02:52:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 83 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x56ae3e… |
| 06-12 02:52:37 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x56ae3e… |
| 06-12 02:34:37 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 220 | 94¢ | $206 | 0x9aba1a… |
| 06-12 02:34:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x9aba1a… |
| 06-12 02:34:37 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x9aba1a… |
| 06-12 02:34:37 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 298 | 94¢ | $280 | 0x9aba1a… |
| 06-11 20:55:09 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | SELL | 13 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x993a7c… |
| 06-11 20:55:09 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x993a7c… |
| 06-11 16:48:25 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | BUY | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xe89032… |
| 06-11 16:48:25 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xe89032… |
| 06-11 16:44:07 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0xa34672… |
| 06-11 16:44:07 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xa34672… |
| 06-11 16:24:52 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x2cd09f… |
| 06-11 16:24:52 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x2cd09f… |
| 06-11 16:24:45 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x3af233… |
| 06-11 16:24:45 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x3af233… |
| 06-11 16:22:49 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x139785… |
| 06-11 16:22:49 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x139785… |
| 06-11 16:22:39 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x62e1a9… |
| 06-11 16:22:39 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x62e1a9… |
| 06-11 16:22:39 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | SELL | 13 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x62e1a9… |
| 06-11 16:17:45 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | BUY | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x2c925f… |
| 06-11 16:17:45 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x2c925f… |
| 06-11 16:06:43 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | SELL | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xfd54a6… |
| 06-11 16:06:43 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 16 | 94¢ | $15 | 0xfd54a6… |
| 06-11 16:06:36 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0x40bf28… |
| 06-11 16:06:36 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x40bf28… |
| 06-11 16:06:36 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | BUY | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x40bf28… |
| 06-11 16:05:45 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 16 | 94¢ | $15 | 0x948f4c… |
| 06-11 16:05:45 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | SELL | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x948f4c… |
| 06-11 16:05:25 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 16 | 94¢ | $15 | 0xb1b643… |
| 06-11 16:05:25 | Boiling-Experimentation-Treatment 0x0fc3…bcdf | Yes | BUY | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb1b643… |
| 06-11 15:13:10 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 19 | 94¢ | $17 | 0x260a9b… |
| 06-11 15:13:10 | Fluid-Cappuccino 0xf2fa…4a62 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x260a9b… |
| 06-11 13:58:33 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x7a9f49… |
| 06-11 13:58:33 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 31 | 94¢ | $29 | 0x7a9f49… |
| 06-11 13:57:42 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 292 | 6¢ | $18 | 0x08dfb6… |
| 06-11 13:57:42 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 292 | 94¢ | $274 | 0x08dfb6… |
| 06-11 09:26:55 | (anonymous) 0xae61…b5c0 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7a0f81… |
| 06-11 09:26:55 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x7a0f81… |
| 06-11 06:25:00 | Treasured-Isolation 0x241b…b6f8 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xb651cc… |
| 06-11 06:25:00 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xb651cc… |
| 06-11 06:24:52 | Basic-Hazelnut 0x2f34…23ea | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xee588c… |
| 06-11 06:24:52 | Best-Inability 0xb630…bb2e | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x09fec1… |
| 06-11 06:24:52 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x09fec1… |
| 06-11 06:24:52 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xee588c… |
| 06-11 06:24:45 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xf50702… |
| 06-11 06:24:45 | Fat-Bill 0x79cf…3869 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xf50702… |
| 06-11 06:24:43 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 0 | 93¢ | $0 | 0xb85b64… |
| 06-11 06:24:43 | Ill-Fated-Sugar 0x75ee…5877 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xaa1f4e… |
| 06-11 06:24:43 | Zigzag-Husband 0x1ed2…5ba2 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xb85b64… |
| 06-11 06:24:43 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xaa1f4e… |
| 06-11 06:24:43 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xb85b64… |
| 06-11 06:24:34 | Runny-Testimony 0xd828…81ec | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x2b963d… |
| 06-11 06:24:34 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x2b963d… |
| 06-11 06:24:34 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x9bdbca… |
| 06-11 06:24:34 | Alive-Ziggurat 0x9ab0…b7fa | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x9bdbca… |
| 06-11 06:24:33 | Scrawny-Trial 0xf423…46e8 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xcc9a8f… |
| 06-11 06:24:33 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd59e1a… |
| 06-11 06:24:33 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xcc9a8f… |