Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
open
Total volume
$123,866
$720 in 24h
Trades
1,014
Unique wallets
334
Liquidity
$15,529
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-02 21:37
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 14 | $32 | $5.0K | $4.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 26 | $47 | $3.7K | $3.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 44 | $88 | $8.9K | $8.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 250 | $2.9K | $43.5K | $40.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 14 | $29 | $1.5K | $1.5K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $11 | $4.4K | $4.4K |
| Median | 36 | $81 | $5.0K | $4.9K |
| Below median | 26 | $229 | $2.1K | $1.9K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $51 | $416 | $365 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $40 | $1.2K | $1.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $4 | $972 | $968 |
| unranked | 231 | $2.6K | $45.6K | $42.9K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +1,643 | $1,560 | $4,110 | 20 | 08-02 21:28 |
| Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | +995 | $961 | $961 | 7 | 07-22 02:39 |
| Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | +913 | $880 | $880 | 8 | 07-27 19:36 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +826 | $800 | $800 | 2 | 07-18 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a8b…48d0 | Yes | +813 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-10 15:12 |
| Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | +799 | $757 | $757 | 14 | 06-30 23:56 |
| 0x2e9e36fe521d642aa7ca89db8b8711a3d607c4ef 0x2e9e…c4ef | Yes | +621 | $22 | $29 | 3 | 07-07 02:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xdf2a…637c | Yes | +490 | $101 | $116 | 7 | 06-10 16:21 |
| Sandy-Enemy 0x2106…fa73 | Yes | +338 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-27 19:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x3bc4…867d | Yes | +316 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-06 11:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x3674…74e7 | Yes | +274 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-10 16:53 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +249 | $216 | $1,829 | 22 | 08-01 13:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xea07…c982 | No | +213 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| Incredible-Double 0x3a23…d946 | Yes | +193 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-22 17:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x9248…7ea3 | Yes | +191 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-24 13:39 |
| Far-Flung-Transom 0xf6c6…7d80 | No | +186 | $175 | $175 | 1 | 06-11 01:13 |
| Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | +182 | $177 | $177 | 1 | 07-28 12:34 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +132 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-23 01:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xafcf…9964 | Yes | +125 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-07 02:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xe3a5…6e00 | Yes | +100 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-24 19:12 |
| Ancient-Autoimmunity 0xf102…1348 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-22 02:39 |
| Safe-Craft 0xdc76…6eda | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-28 11:58 |
| Hearty-Amusement 0x7b30…1eee | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 3 | 07-07 02:31 |
| Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | +95 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 18:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xfbac…ba0e | Yes | +92 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 22:09 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +82 | $80 | $430 | 7 | 08-01 12:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x16ad…0202 | Yes | +77 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 18:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb96…d3fc | Yes | +71 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-15 11:14 |
| Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | +67 | $64 | $138 | 3 | 08-02 21:37 |
| Embarrassed-Parchment 0xe7c2…be3e | Yes | +65 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 03:01 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +65 | $63 | $63 | 1 | 07-10 16:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x02d8…abad | Yes | +60 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 19:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d41…8c3d | No | +58 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 08-01 12:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xe489…f577 | Yes | +57 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 07-28 15:08 |
| Sleepy-Disconnection 0xc96a…702c | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 06-24 21:29 |
| Quixotic-Story 0x7dc9…525e | Yes | +47 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| Intentional-Manager 0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | +42 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 07-04 01:24 |
| Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | +35 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 12:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xf9ce…2e6b | Yes | +33 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-27 19:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xa981…f73d | Yes | +31 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-02 13:32 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 07:24 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +28 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-10 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe061…28a6 | No | +27 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-10 22:50 |
| Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | +26 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 16:09 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +25 | $4 | $33 | 10 | 06-29 11:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xae9a…0ad9 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 11:13 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +21 | $-1 | $21 | 30 | 06-22 17:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xe2be…df16 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-11 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ed6…9ceb | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-10 19:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-10 17:08 |
| Poor-Tavern 0x8304…f086 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-11 01:40 |
| Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | +10 | $10 | $19 | 3 | 08-01 12:57 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +10 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 15:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x923c…f183 | No | +9 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-28 15:08 |
| Last-Instance 0x7b3c…afd9 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-08 13:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xae61…b5c0 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 09:26 |
| Criminal-Pressurization 0x3351…da2d | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-08 16:30 |
| Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-29 12:28 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:37:27 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | SELL | 37 | 98¢ | $37 | 0xd6034e… |
| 08-02 21:37:27 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | SELL | 13 | 98¢ | $12 | 0xd6034e… |
| 08-02 21:37:27 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xd6034e… |
| 08-02 21:37:24 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | SELL | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x3863a0… |
| 08-02 21:37:24 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x3863a0… |
| 08-02 21:37:24 | (anonymous) 0xc4b6…4dc1 | No | SELL | 41 | 98¢ | $41 | 0x3863a0… |
| 08-02 21:37:14 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5e3cac… |
| 08-02 21:37:14 | (anonymous) 0xc4b6…4dc1 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x5e3cac… |
| 08-02 21:37:14 | Rewarding-Venison 0x9534…c6d0 | No | SELL | 35 | 98¢ | $35 | 0x5e3cac… |
| 08-02 21:28:17 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x4ac9ae… |
| 08-02 21:28:17 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4ac9ae… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | BUY | 450 | 98¢ | $440 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-02 21:28:09 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | SELL | 290 | 98¢ | $283 | 0x0d7272… |
| 08-01 13:20:12 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 90 | 98¢ | $88 | 0x6dc21e… |
| 08-01 13:20:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 90 | 98¢ | $88 | 0x6dc21e… |
| 08-01 13:07:29 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x4325da… |
| 08-01 13:07:29 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x4325da… |
| 08-01 13:07:23 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x4c315e… |
| 08-01 13:07:23 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x4c315e… |
| 08-01 13:07:17 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x6d7beb… |
| 08-01 13:07:17 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x6d7beb… |
| 08-01 13:07:11 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x66315a… |
| 08-01 13:07:11 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x66315a… |
| 08-01 13:07:06 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xf57c66… |
| 08-01 13:07:06 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xf57c66… |
| 08-01 12:59:03 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xb10b1a… |
| 08-01 12:59:03 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xb10b1a… |
| 08-01 12:58:54 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x7f7cc0… |
| 08-01 12:58:54 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x7f7cc0… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 500 | 98¢ | $490 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0x2d41…8c3d | No | BUY | 58 | 98¢ | $57 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 82 | 98¢ | $80 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 08-01 12:57:51 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x13836d… |
| 07-31 21:11:27 | (anonymous) 0x0c70…14a8 | Yes | SELL | 33 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x815587… |
| 07-31 21:11:27 | Rewarding-Venison 0x9534…c6d0 | No | SELL | 16 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x815587… |
| 07-31 21:11:27 | (anonymous) 0xf5ce…28fb | No | SELL | 18 | 98¢ | $17 | 0x815587… |
| 07-28 15:08:46 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x27a10d… |
| 07-28 15:08:46 | (anonymous) 0x923c…f183 | No | BUY | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x27a10d… |
| 07-28 15:08:46 | (anonymous) 0xe489…f577 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x27a10d… |
| 07-28 12:34:49 | (anonymous) 0xb4b3…8e12 | No | SELL | 61 | 97¢ | $59 | 0x81e296… |
| 07-28 12:34:49 | (anonymous) 0xf269…8a3d | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $50 | 0x81e296… |
| 07-28 12:34:49 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 47 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x81e296… |
| 07-28 12:34:49 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x81e296… |
| 07-28 12:34:49 | Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | BUY | 182 | 97¢ | $177 | 0x81e296… |
| 07-27 19:36:25 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xe13d7f… |
| 07-27 19:36:25 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xe13d7f… |
| 07-27 19:36:21 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xcdc11c… |
| 07-27 19:36:21 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xcdc11c… |
| 07-27 19:36:15 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x720db0… |
| 07-27 19:36:15 | (anonymous) 0xf9ce…2e6b | Yes | BUY | 33 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x720db0… |
| 07-27 19:36:15 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x720db0… |
| 07-27 19:33:04 | Sandy-Enemy 0x2106…fa73 | Yes | BUY | 338 | 3¢ | $10 | 0x8e2b67… |
| 07-27 19:33:04 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 72 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x8e2b67… |
| 07-27 19:33:04 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 188 | 97¢ | $182 | 0x8e2b67… |
| 07-26 16:01:04 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | BUY | 0 | 97¢ | $0 | 0xe6da06… |
| 07-26 16:01:04 | (anonymous) 0xc4b6…4dc1 | No | BUY | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0xe6da06… |
| 07-26 16:01:04 | Sociable-Resistance 0xc440…2e0e | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $50 | 0xe6da06… |
| 07-25 12:17:49 | Sociable-Resistance 0xc440…2e0e | No | BUY | 51 | 98¢ | $50 | 0x8f90c2… |
| 07-25 12:17:49 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8f90c2… |
| 07-25 07:40:33 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | BUY | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0xa1c9f2… |
| 07-25 07:40:33 | (anonymous) 0x0c70…14a8 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa1c9f2… |
| 07-25 04:59:33 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x297737… |
| 07-25 04:59:33 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x297737… |
| 07-24 19:12:31 | (anonymous) 0xe3a5…6e00 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x99dc1d… |
| 07-24 19:12:31 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | BUY | 71 | 97¢ | $69 | 0x99dc1d… |
| 07-24 19:12:31 | (anonymous) 0x6e36…c7e8 | No | SELL | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x99dc1d… |
| 07-24 15:42:13 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 79 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x416ce0… |
| 07-24 15:42:13 | (anonymous) 0xe3a5…6e00 | Yes | BUY | 79 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x416ce0… |
| 07-23 17:54:55 | (anonymous) 0xf5ce…28fb | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0xe00b14… |
| 07-23 17:54:55 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 79 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe00b14… |
| 07-23 17:54:55 | Rewarding-Venison 0x9534…c6d0 | No | BUY | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0xe00b14… |
| 07-23 17:54:55 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xe00b14… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 696 | 97¢ | $675 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | (anonymous) 0xe272…e1c7 | No | SELL | 53 | 97¢ | $51 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | (anonymous) 0x6f63…654e | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 97¢ | $969 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-23 01:28:52 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 132 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xe0dac7… |
| 07-22 09:22:13 | (anonymous) 0x985d…0b1a | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x2b9025… |
| 07-22 09:22:13 | (anonymous) 0x7ce4…bb27 | No | SELL | 56 | 97¢ | $54 | 0x2b9025… |
| 07-22 09:22:13 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 98 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x2b9025… |
| 07-22 09:22:13 | (anonymous) 0x0907…9c94 | Yes | SELL | 205 | 3¢ | $7 | 0x2b9025… |
| 07-22 02:39:00 | Ancient-Autoimmunity 0xf102…1348 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x641364… |
| 07-22 02:39:00 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0x641364… |
| 07-19 11:16:10 | (anonymous) 0xe489…f577 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x098707… |
| 07-19 11:16:10 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | BUY | 27 | 96¢ | $26 | 0x098707… |
| 07-18 14:26:06 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 206 | 97¢ | $200 | 0xf5224d… |