Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
open
Total volume
$109,220
$720 in 24h
Trades
861
Unique wallets
293
Liquidity
$15,529
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-10 18:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 11 | $26 | $2.6K | $2.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 20 | $41 | $1.9K | $1.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 25 | $68 | $3.3K | $3.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 237 | $2.8K | $45.7K | $42.9K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 12 | $22 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $11 | $2.4K | $2.4K |
| Median | 35 | $81 | $4.9K | $4.8K |
| Below median | 22 | $218 | $1.9K | $1.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $47 | $416 | $369 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $37 | $686 | $649 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | — | $617 | $617 |
| unranked | 203 | $2.5K | $41.3K | $38.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | +895 | $865 | $865 | 6 | 07-10 18:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a8b…48d0 | Yes | +813 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-10 15:12 |
| Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | +799 | $757 | $757 | 14 | 06-30 23:56 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +768 | $718 | $1,134 | 16 | 06-24 22:09 |
| Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | +713 | $686 | $686 | 6 | 07-01 12:36 |
| 0x2e9e36fe521d642aa7ca89db8b8711a3d607c4ef 0x2e9e…c4ef | Yes | +621 | $22 | $29 | 3 | 07-07 02:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xdf2a…637c | Yes | +490 | $101 | $116 | 7 | 06-10 16:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x3bc4…867d | Yes | +316 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-06 11:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x3674…74e7 | Yes | +274 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-10 16:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xea07…c982 | No | +213 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x0907…9c94 | Yes | +205 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-10 00:10 |
| Incredible-Double 0x3a23…d946 | Yes | +193 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-22 17:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x9248…7ea3 | Yes | +191 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-24 13:39 |
| Far-Flung-Transom 0xf6c6…7d80 | No | +186 | $175 | $175 | 1 | 06-11 01:13 |
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +168 | $132 | $1,702 | 16 | 06-28 11:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xafcf…9964 | Yes | +125 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-07 02:31 |
| Safe-Craft 0xdc76…6eda | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-28 11:58 |
| Hearty-Amusement 0x7b30…1eee | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 3 | 07-07 02:31 |
| Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | +95 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 18:01 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +95 | $89 | $669 | 9 | 07-08 13:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xfbac…ba0e | Yes | +92 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x16ad…0202 | Yes | +77 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 18:09 |
| Embarrassed-Parchment 0xe7c2…be3e | Yes | +65 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 03:01 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +65 | $63 | $63 | 1 | 07-10 16:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xb4b3…8e12 | No | +61 | $59 | $59 | 1 | 07-06 11:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x02d8…abad | Yes | +60 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 19:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x7ce4…bb27 | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 07-10 16:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xe272…e1c7 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-06 11:43 |
| Sleepy-Disconnection 0xc96a…702c | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 06-24 21:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e36…c7e8 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 07-06 07:18 |
| Quixotic-Story 0x7dc9…525e | Yes | +47 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 23:55 |
| Intentional-Manager 0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | +42 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 07-04 01:24 |
| Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | +35 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 12:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xa981…f73d | Yes | +31 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-02 13:32 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 07:24 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +28 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-10 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe061…28a6 | No | +27 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-10 22:50 |
| Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | +26 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 16:09 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +25 | $4 | $33 | 10 | 06-29 11:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xae9a…0ad9 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 11:13 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +21 | $-1 | $21 | 30 | 06-22 17:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x589f…4046 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 19:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ed6…9ceb | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-10 19:36 |
| Elastic-Sturgeon 0x69e4…1b82 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-08 20:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-10 17:08 |
| Poor-Tavern 0x8304…f086 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-11 01:40 |
| Flawless-Bungalow 0x7f70…ae05 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +10 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-10 15:41 |
| Last-Instance 0x7b3c…afd9 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-08 13:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xae61…b5c0 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 09:26 |
| Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-22 17:17 |
| Criminal-Pressurization 0x3351…da2d | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-08 16:30 |
| Fluid-Cappuccino 0xf2fa…4a62 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 06-12 15:16 |
| Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-29 12:28 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 18:02:11 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf25731… |
| 07-10 18:02:11 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf25731… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | (anonymous) 0x7ce4…bb27 | No | BUY | 56 | 97¢ | $54 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | BUY | 65 | 96¢ | $63 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 96 | 96¢ | $93 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 16:53:53 | (anonymous) 0x3674…74e7 | Yes | BUY | 274 | 4¢ | $10 | 0x0ff01f… |
| 07-10 08:13:43 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 142 | 96¢ | $137 | 0xf59bf6… |
| 07-10 08:13:43 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 142 | 96¢ | $137 | 0xf59bf6… |
| 07-10 00:11:50 | Rigid-Stockings 0xbf14…5d95 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x62b42e… |
| 07-10 00:11:50 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 37 | 96¢ | $36 | 0x62b42e… |
| 07-10 00:11:50 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x62b42e… |
| 07-10 00:11:50 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x62b42e… |
| 07-10 00:10:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xb4f509… |
| 07-10 00:10:14 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x4047bb… |
| 07-10 00:10:14 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xb4f509… |
| 07-10 00:10:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x4047bb… |
| 07-10 00:10:13 | Rigid-Stockings 0xbf14…5d95 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe091ec… |
| 07-10 00:10:13 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xe091ec… |
| 07-10 00:10:13 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 42 | 96¢ | $41 | 0xe091ec… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | (anonymous) 0x0907…9c94 | Yes | BUY | 205 | 3¢ | $7 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-10 00:10:04 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x517f87… |
| 07-08 16:30:56 | Criminal-Pressurization 0x3351…da2d | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x116d03… |
| 07-08 16:30:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x116d03… |
| 07-08 13:36:53 | Last-Instance 0x7b3c…afd9 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x1e6636… |
| 07-08 13:36:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x1e6636… |
| 07-07 02:31:38 | Hearty-Amusement 0x7b30…1eee | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x0d17f4… |
| 07-07 02:31:38 | (anonymous) 0xafcf…9964 | Yes | BUY | 125 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x0d17f4… |
| 07-07 02:31:38 | 0x2e9e36fe521d642aa7ca89db8b8711a3d607c4ef 0x2e9e…c4ef | Yes | SELL | 79 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x0d17f4… |
| 07-07 02:31:38 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0d17f4… |
| 07-06 23:41:40 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x79d9ad… |
| 07-06 23:41:40 | Rigid-Stockings 0xbf14…5d95 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x79d9ad… |
| 07-06 23:41:40 | Hearty-Amusement 0x7b30…1eee | No | BUY | 25 | 96¢ | $24 | 0x79d9ad… |
| 07-06 23:41:40 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | SELL | 45 | 97¢ | $43 | 0x79d9ad… |
| 07-06 11:45:10 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xdec952… |
| 07-06 11:45:10 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xdec952… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 112 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | Hearty-Amusement 0x7b30…1eee | No | BUY | 36 | 97¢ | $34 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | (anonymous) 0xb4b3…8e12 | No | BUY | 61 | 97¢ | $59 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | (anonymous) 0xe272…e1c7 | No | BUY | 53 | 97¢ | $51 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | (anonymous) 0x3bc4…867d | Yes | BUY | 316 | 3¢ | $10 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 11:43:43 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xa16c20… |
| 07-06 07:18:05 | (anonymous) 0x0505…fc40 | No | SELL | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0x0491e1… |
| 07-06 07:18:05 | (anonymous) 0x6e36…c7e8 | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0x0491e1… |
| 07-06 07:18:05 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0491e1… |
| 07-06 07:17:22 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0x00f8d7… |
| 07-06 07:17:22 | (anonymous) 0x0505…fc40 | No | BUY | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0x00f8d7… |
| 07-05 06:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | SELL | 68 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x1ec21e… |
| 07-05 06:09:14 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 68 | 97¢ | $66 | 0x1ec21e… |
| 07-04 01:24:50 | Intentional-Manager 0xb7c7…b3bb | Yes | BUY | 32 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x9dcd95… |
| 07-04 01:24:50 | (anonymous) 0x6e36…c7e8 | No | BUY | 32 | 97¢ | $31 | 0x9dcd95… |
| 07-03 23:38:44 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9360c3… |
| 07-03 23:38:44 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 596 | 97¢ | $578 | 0x9360c3… |
| 07-03 23:38:44 | Carefree-Beard 0xae52…405c | Yes | SELL | 603 | 3¢ | $18 | 0x9360c3… |
| 07-03 07:55:38 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 100 | 97¢ | $97 | 0x063af5… |
| 07-03 07:55:38 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x063af5… |
| 07-03 07:55:38 | (anonymous) 0xa095…32b2 | Yes | SELL | 143 | 3¢ | $4 | 0x063af5… |
| 07-02 22:28:56 | Rigid-Stockings 0xbf14…5d95 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xb7d08e… |
| 07-02 22:28:56 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb7d08e… |
| 07-02 22:28:56 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 39 | 97¢ | $38 | 0xb7d08e… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 39 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 325 | 97¢ | $315 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 200 | 96¢ | $193 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | Carefree-Beard 0xae52…405c | Yes | BUY | 603 | 3¢ | $20 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 20:03:10 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x230e95… |
| 07-02 17:53:47 | 0x2e9e36fe521d642aa7ca89db8b8711a3d607c4ef 0x2e9e…c4ef | Yes | BUY | 200 | 3¢ | $6 | 0xda3ac7… |
| 07-02 17:53:47 | Downright-Website 0x836f…906e | No | BUY | 244 | 97¢ | $236 | 0xda3ac7… |
| 07-02 17:53:47 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xda3ac7… |
| 07-02 13:32:11 | (anonymous) 0xa981…f73d | Yes | BUY | 31 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfe19f0… |
| 07-02 13:32:11 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 31 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfe19f0… |
| 07-01 12:36:05 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xa4315b… |
| 07-01 12:36:05 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xa4315b… |
| 07-01 07:30:55 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 59 | 96¢ | $57 | 0xecbac3… |
| 07-01 07:30:55 | Rigid-Stockings 0xbf14…5d95 | Yes | BUY | 59 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xecbac3… |
| 07-01 07:25:19 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x347e70… |
| 07-01 07:25:19 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x347e70… |
| 07-01 07:25:04 | 0x2e9e36fe521d642aa7ca89db8b8711a3d607c4ef 0x2e9e…c4ef | Yes | BUY | 500 | 4¢ | $19 | 0xae505a… |
| 07-01 07:25:04 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 500 | 96¢ | $481 | 0xae505a… |
| 07-01 07:24:47 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x7bdf0b… |
| 07-01 07:24:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x7bdf0b… |
| 07-01 07:24:31 | Far-Off-Webinar 0x6bed…b1fe | No | BUY | 25 | 95¢ | $23 | 0x41d533… |
| 07-01 07:24:31 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $23 | 0x41d533… |
| 07-01 00:28:28 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x49e013… |
| 07-01 00:28:28 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x49e013… |
| 06-30 23:56:13 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x1137ca… |
| 06-30 23:56:13 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 117 | 94¢ | $110 | 0x1137ca… |
| 06-30 23:56:13 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x1137ca… |
| 06-30 23:56:13 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x1137ca… |
| 06-29 18:02:11 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | SELL | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0xa4a81a… |
| 06-29 18:02:11 | Amusing-Good 0x8f0b…8be2 | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0xa4a81a… |
| 06-29 18:02:11 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xa4a81a… |
| 06-29 12:28:41 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x20f5bd… |