Realized P&L
-$989
Unrealized P&L
-$1
Hit rate
57.9%
Resolved
1,948
Trades
4,262
lifetime
Volume
$37.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$542
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 04:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 151 days
Categories
Other
42% 49% -$346
Crypto
27% 60% -$98
Politics
26% 62% -$379
Sports
4% 46% -$121
Tech
1% 33% -$65
Pop-Culture
0% 33% +$19
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
33 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -130 -$122 96¢ $-125 -$3 07-20 15:01
Trump out as President before 2027? No -115 -$99 96¢ $-110 -$11 04-30 11:21
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No -64 -$60 96¢ $-62 -$2 07-26 20:19
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +61 $48 96¢ $59 +$10 08-26 10:13
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -60 -$57 95¢ $-57 +$0 07-20 20:26
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No -40 -$39 99¢ $-40 -$1 07-20 20:26
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +22 $20 98¢ $22 +$2 07-02 07:15
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +17 $15 96¢ $16 +$1 09-25 16:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +14 $10 85¢ $11 +$1 07-31 09:14
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No -13 -$10 84¢ $-11 -$1 08-05 03:52
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +10 $8 96¢ $10 +$2 08-04 17:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +10 $10 96¢ $10 +$0 10-27 04:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 08-05 03:28
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +25 $4 14¢ $4 $0 07-03 14:58
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +1 $1 58¢ $1 +$0 07-21 06:37