Quixotic-Story — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.0%

Resolved

Trades

13,892

lifetime

Volume

$33.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 07-13 20:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

44% 45% $-9

Politics

27% 41% $-5

Crypto

15% — —

Sports

9% 25% +$0

Tech

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 701 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	44	$200	217	212	+5	open	—	07-03 23:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	30	$196	397	410	-13	open	—	07-03 08:24
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	46	$150	170	187	-17	open	—	06-14 14:55
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	55	$140	418	419	-1	open	—	06-17 22:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	24	$138	551	617	-66	open	—	07-03 04:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	39	$138	200	200	+0	open	—	06-14 18:02
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	30	$134	165	145	+20	open	—	07-01 14:24
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	42	$133	1,052	1,093	-41	open	—	07-02 05:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	49	$131	151	151	+0	open	—	05-31 20:59
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	41	$131	1,084	1,094	-10	open	—	07-01 10:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	42	$128	331	333	-2	open	—	06-17 15:57
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	35	$127	141	141	+0	open	—	06-18 03:43
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	44	$127	344	323	+21	open	—	07-06 10:10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	43	$126	194	202	-8	open	—	06-22 05:39
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	47	$123	217	217	+0	open	—	06-16 00:11
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	44	$120	463	475	-12	open	—	07-06 23:19
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	38	$119	156	153	+3	open	—	06-16 19:26
will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	29	$118	181	181	+0	open	—	06-30 16:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	28	$118	156	172	-16	open	—	06-14 14:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	32	$117	352	368	-16	open	—	06-27 06:25
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	41	$116	258	284	-26	open	—	06-16 14:23
world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	39	$113	816	816	+0	open	—	07-01 14:24
will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	55	$112	198	196	+2	open	—	06-15 22:25
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	26	$112	366	286	+80	open	—	06-08 20:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	27	$111	129	113	+16	open	—	06-13 20:28
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	31	$111	248	238	+10	open	—	06-17 17:47
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	33	$110	169	169	+0	open	—	07-03 07:05
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	19	$109	419	419	+0	open	—	07-02 14:13
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	30	$109	325	337	-12	open	—	07-02 17:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	14	$108	115	115	+0	open	—	07-01 10:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 20:22:47	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xc603ea…
07-10 01:35:53	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x66c23b…
07-10 01:35:43	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	Yes	SELL	67	5¢	$3	0x1cac87…
07-09 23:42:23	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75 by july 31 20260629184429513	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0xc9a90f…
07-09 15:42:32	will vucic officially leave office by july 17 20260629165804200	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x9e7995…
07-09 15:42:16	will vucic officially leave office by july 17 20260629165804200	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x779506…
07-09 13:42:23	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x153388…
07-09 13:42:14	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x822017…
07-09 13:42:14	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x489e2d…
07-07 11:34:59	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0xc36c78…
07-07 04:40:25	will solana dip to 50 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xb667de…
07-06 23:19:25	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x18fb8f…
07-06 23:19:11	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x07a5b0…
07-06 23:18:19	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x412f8e…
07-06 10:10:23	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	11¢	$4	0xdac40d…
07-06 09:01:25	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	5¢	$4	0x5fd343…
07-06 07:04:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0xc45043…
07-06 05:17:35	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xcf2397…
07-06 05:17:29	Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$1	0x14a1da…
07-06 03:20:08	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x80ee98…
07-06 03:16:16	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	29	20¢	$6	0x5b1e43…
07-06 03:06:55	untitled market 1 20260629172240684	Yes	SELL	156	2¢	$3	0xd3091e…
07-06 01:18:17	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	Yes	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x748c54…
07-06 01:18:05	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x57f7c4…
07-05 23:21:37	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt35 by july 31 20260629184429515	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0xee4b32…
07-05 23:20:34	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75 by july 31 20260629184429513	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xf4d8d0…
07-05 23:20:29	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xa32571…
07-05 23:20:19	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75 by july 31 20260629184429513	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xde463d…
07-05 23:07:47	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0x458c77…
07-05 22:01:32	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xf1b75c…
07-05 20:02:49	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	83	5¢	$4	0x7a5486…
07-05 17:03:35	will neymar score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108554	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x47749a…
07-05 17:03:23	will neymar score 2 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108554	Yes	SELL	61	10¢	$6	0xba14a5…
07-05 16:17:34	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0xf3b5e4…
07-05 15:09:31	will vucic officially leave office by july 17 20260629165804200	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xf9d88a…
07-05 14:07:43	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x49c67b…
07-05 13:02:02	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	13¢	$5	0x08c197…
07-05 12:12:38	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xe9f238…
07-05 12:08:19	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$3	0x248ee4…
07-05 12:01:50	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xded6d3…
07-05 11:50:10	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xfb1d5b…
07-05 11:31:14	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	7¢	$5	0x9e0d6d…
07-05 11:28:44	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xb8c3fc…
07-05 10:20:40	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0x3f31e3…
07-05 07:38:28	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0x75005c…
07-05 07:34:41	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xf2a702…
07-05 07:34:28	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0xb24965…
07-05 05:37:14	Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xfa8b68…
07-05 03:25:10	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 90 mph 20260626193609214	Yes	SELL	16	54¢	$9	0xae1f13…
07-05 01:22:41	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$1	0x5300be…
07-05 00:41:38	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	76	11¢	$8	0xed1502…
07-04 23:13:32	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x0de3b3…
07-04 23:13:20	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	6¢	$6	0x806405…
07-04 23:11:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xa3a3cb…
07-04 23:06:26	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x875a92…
07-04 20:23:11	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x8f8e05…
07-04 17:11:47	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0xc3731c…
07-04 16:54:50	Will Feid perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0xbd192d…
07-04 14:58:17	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x0785d6…
07-04 13:52:40	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xfd8903…
07-04 13:34:17	laso finance fdv above 10m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	31	45¢	$14	0xecda51…
07-04 07:15:32	Will Post Malone perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xe2e393…
07-04 07:12:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xc148af…
07-04 05:58:37	will axiom launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x282bb6…
07-04 05:52:13	will axiom launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x0aac67…
07-04 04:10:37	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$4	0x5e8f84…
07-04 02:15:38	laso finance fdv above 8m one day after launch	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xf6024e…
07-03 23:48:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xdf55c3…
07-03 23:48:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x208f59…
07-03 23:37:41	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x099b32…
07-03 23:33:52	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0xda79a2…
07-03 23:27:44	Will Jay-Z perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xadd98f…
07-03 23:20:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	3¢	$5	0xce401b…
07-03 23:19:10	Will Jay-Z perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0xbb8dfe…
07-03 20:26:56	will 9 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228794	Yes	SELL	35	5¢	$2	0xedb59d…
07-03 20:17:20	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x688e23…
07-03 20:06:07	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	88	3¢	$2	0xeaa125…
07-03 19:02:25	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	SELL	197	2¢	$3	0x881119…
07-03 16:52:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997	Yes	SELL	209	2¢	$4	0x77d8fe…
07-03 15:20:58	laso finance fdv above 5m one day after launch	No	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0x6a7fa8…
07-03 13:39:59	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x8132fa…
07-03 11:59:07	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	66	9¢	$6	0x9bd582…
07-03 11:15:50	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0x21c8ad…
07-03 11:06:56	over 60m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0xc74cbb…
07-03 11:00:14	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0xd290d1…
07-03 10:57:11	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x6cd462…
07-03 10:49:11	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	96	2¢	$2	0x8a11cd…
07-03 09:41:50	will lambdas valuation hit high 10b by december 31	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x813245…
07-03 08:59:29	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$0	0x40b4f3…
07-03 08:44:56	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xca30eb…
07-03 08:44:50	will russia capture stavky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xb2b79c…
07-03 08:24:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0x244467…
07-03 08:02:20	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0x7a0ffd…
07-03 07:05:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	17	16¢	$3	0x5f87f3…
07-03 06:53:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x935a6a…
07-03 06:48:43	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0xa340bc…
07-03 06:35:32	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x5158ee…
07-03 04:59:20	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$1	0x25b17d…
07-03 04:56:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	12¢	$5	0x8ace78…
07-03 04:19:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0xc0e155…