Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
open
Total volume
$1,162
$155 in 24h
Trades
76
Unique wallets
36
Liquidity
$5,159
Latest YES mid
19¢
Latest NO mid
81¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-20 14:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $59 | $5 | +$54 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 15 | $161 | $38 | +$123 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | — | $46 | $46 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $35 | $7 | +$28 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $19 | — | +$19 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $95 | $38 | +$57 |
| Median | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 5 | $4 | $4 | +$0 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $39 | $5 | +$34 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $52 | — | +$52 |
| unranked | 6 | $41 | $49 | $8 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | Yes | +481 | $87 | $87 | 4 | 06-12 15:59 |
| Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +144 | $36 | $36 | 1 | 06-07 00:10 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +126 | $24 | $24 | 2 | 06-09 21:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +95 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 06-09 14:01 |
| Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | +76 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-20 14:17 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +50 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-20 14:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +25 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-06 09:10 |
| Good-Natured-Permit 0x530f…424e | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 4 | 06-13 10:51 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-06 09:10 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-05 20:20 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 19:32 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $12 | 6 | 06-18 15:58 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 14:17:44 | (anonymous) 0xc6b2…3caa | Yes | SELL | 146 | 19¢ | $28 | 0x4628a2… |
| 06-20 14:17:44 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 50 | 19¢ | $10 | 0x4628a2… |
| 06-20 14:17:44 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x4628a2… |
| 06-20 14:17:44 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | BUY | 76 | 19¢ | $14 | 0x4628a2… |
| 06-18 15:58:38 | Physical-Taxpayer 0x091a…db09 | No | SELL | 7 | 77¢ | $6 | 0x1ce7ec… |
| 06-18 15:58:38 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x1ce7ec… |
| 06-13 10:51:31 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x34f9b3… |
| 06-13 10:51:31 | Good-Natured-Permit 0x530f…424e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x34f9b3… |
| 06-13 10:51:25 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x63281f… |
| 06-13 10:51:25 | Good-Natured-Permit 0x530f…424e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x63281f… |
| 06-13 10:51:15 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xda2e1d… |
| 06-13 10:51:15 | Good-Natured-Permit 0x530f…424e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xda2e1d… |
| 06-13 10:51:06 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x8bd0aa… |
| 06-13 10:51:06 | Good-Natured-Permit 0x530f…424e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x8bd0aa… |
| 06-12 15:59:55 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | Yes | BUY | 86 | 18¢ | $16 | 0x878ba2… |
| 06-12 15:59:55 | Warlike-Noun-Haircut 0x0d26…50b5 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 18¢ | $16 | 0x878ba2… |
| 06-12 05:37:12 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | Yes | BUY | 12 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xb34ba3… |
| 06-12 05:37:12 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xb34ba3… |
| 06-12 05:37:12 | Sparse-Apartment 0xaa46…4a23 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xb34ba3… |
| 06-09 21:14:18 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | Yes | BUY | 242 | 18¢ | $44 | 0x1acbf9… |
| 06-09 21:14:18 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 19¢ | $12 | 0x1acbf9… |
| 06-09 21:14:18 | Watery-Export 0x39a8…7d57 | Yes | SELL | 368 | 18¢ | $68 | 0x1acbf9… |
| 06-09 14:01:16 | (anonymous) 0x8152…bfda | Yes | BUY | 140 | 18¢ | $25 | 0x4afb50… |
| 06-09 14:01:16 | Watery-Export 0x39a8…7d57 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 18¢ | $37 | 0x4afb50… |
| 06-09 14:01:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x4afb50… |
| 06-09 14:01:16 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 35 | 81¢ | $28 | 0x4afb50… |
| 06-09 13:57:49 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 21¢ | $6 | 0xf1f22e… |
| 06-09 13:57:49 | Watery-Export 0x39a8…7d57 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 20¢ | $20 | 0xf1f22e… |
| 06-09 13:57:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 20¢ | $14 | 0xf1f22e… |
| 06-07 00:10:25 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 24¢ | $11 | 0x54f569… |
| 06-07 00:10:25 | Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | BUY | 144 | 25¢ | $36 | 0x54f569… |
| 06-07 00:10:25 | Orderly-Pain 0x30ec…cebb | Yes | SELL | 5 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x54f569… |
| 06-07 00:03:24 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 24¢ | $0 | 0x2113bd… |
| 06-07 00:03:24 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 2 | 76¢ | $1 | 0x2113bd… |
| 06-06 09:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 24¢ | $12 | 0x6a4f1a… |
| 06-06 09:10:33 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 8 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x6a4f1a… |
| 06-06 09:10:33 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 4 | 76¢ | $3 | 0x6a4f1a… |
| 06-06 09:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 24¢ | $6 | 0x6a4f1a… |
| 06-06 09:10:33 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 24¢ | $3 | 0x6a4f1a… |
| 06-06 09:08:06 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 30 | 75¢ | $22 | 0x7c6443… |
| 06-06 09:08:06 | (anonymous) 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 25¢ | $8 | 0x7c6443… |
| 06-06 09:06:34 | Orderly-Pain 0x30ec…cebb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x0a380c… |
| 06-06 09:06:34 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 5 | 75¢ | $4 | 0x0a380c… |
| 06-06 09:06:34 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 24¢ | $8 | 0x0a380c… |
| 06-06 09:06:34 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 7 | 75¢ | $5 | 0x0a380c… |
| 06-06 09:06:34 | (anonymous) 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 25¢ | $12 | 0x0a380c… |
| 06-06 02:55:25 | Wet-Clam 0x3606…4e08 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 35¢ | $5 | 0x693db3… |
| 06-06 02:55:25 | Cautious-Compliance 0xd3de…fe0e | No | SELL | 14 | 65¢ | $9 | 0x693db3… |
| 06-06 02:45:27 | Cautious-Compliance 0xd3de…fe0e | No | SELL | 7 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xb63c78… |
| 06-06 02:45:27 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 7 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xb63c78… |
| 06-05 20:20:00 | (anonymous) 0x63da…9146 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 33¢ | $17 | 0xdcd67d… |
| 06-05 20:20:00 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | BUY | 8 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xdcd67d… |
| 06-05 20:20:00 | Orderly-Pain 0x30ec…cebb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xdcd67d… |
| 06-04 19:32:42 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0x3c1fdb… |
| 06-04 19:32:42 | Orderly-Pain 0x30ec…cebb | Yes | BUY | 3 | 34¢ | $1 | 0x3c1fdb… |
| 06-04 19:04:15 | Wet-Clam 0x3606…4e08 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 35¢ | $2 | 0xe5015d… |
| 06-04 19:04:15 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 6 | 65¢ | $4 | 0xe5015d… |
| 05-30 22:35:23 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 6 | 69¢ | $4 | 0x43988e… |
| 05-30 22:35:23 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | SELL | 6 | 69¢ | $4 | 0x43988e… |
| 05-30 07:26:59 | Wet-Clam 0x3606…4e08 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 35¢ | $21 | 0x1a806a… |
| 05-30 07:26:59 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | SELL | 60 | 65¢ | $39 | 0x1a806a… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | BUY | 60 | 70¢ | $42 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | BUY | 6 | 66¢ | $4 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 39 | 34¢ | $13 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Incomparable-Surprise 0x0482…6b0a | No | SELL | 423 | 68¢ | $287 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 34¢ | $34 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | BUY | 30 | 71¢ | $21 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 30¢ | $10 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 32¢ | $8 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 23:53:42 | (anonymous) 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | SELL | 94 | 33¢ | $31 | 0xdf3d2e… |
| 05-29 22:00:43 | (anonymous) 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0x5b628d… |
| 05-29 22:00:43 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | BUY | 10 | 73¢ | $7 | 0x5b628d… |
| 05-29 22:00:43 | Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | SELL | 79 | 27¢ | $21 | 0x5b628d… |
| 05-29 22:00:43 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 11 | 73¢ | $8 | 0x5b628d… |
| 05-27 20:15:27 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 28¢ | $4 | 0x741270… |
| 05-27 20:15:27 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | SELL | 13 | 72¢ | $9 | 0x741270… |