Reflecting-Pantology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$755

Unrealized P&L

+$1.29K

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

262

Trades

2,731

lifetime

Volume

$210.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$4.54K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-28 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

64% 70% +$518

Tech

22% 61% -$1,402

Politics

14% 48% +$128

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+3,000	$1,270	52¢	$1.5K	+$275	10-28 17:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1,714	$840	54¢	$917	+$77	10-28 21:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$489	72¢	$720	+$231	10-28 23:10
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+521	$407	82¢	$425	+$18	10-21 19:18
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+308	$240	81¢	$249	+$9	10-21 19:18
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+250	-$136	84¢	$209	+$345	10-28 17:18
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+250	$142	55¢	$136	-$6	10-28 09:14
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+203	-$338	62¢	$127	+$465	10-13 19:42
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	-85	-$76	94¢	$-79	-$3	08-04 23:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+200	$149	18¢	$37	-$112	10-28 21:42
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	05-01 05:39
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+250	$9	4¢	$10	+$1	05-01 05:07
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+9	$9	100¢	$9	+$0	05-01 05:39
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+8	$8	99¢	$8	+$0	05-01 05:38
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+7	$7	100¢	$7	+$0	05-01 05:38
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+6	$6	99¢	$6	$0	05-01 05:37
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+73	$8	8¢	$6	-$2	05-01 05:10
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+70	$7	8¢	$5	-$2	05-01 05:11
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+102	$6	5¢	$5	-$1	05-01 05:13
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+44	$4	12¢	$5	+$1	05-01 05:16
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	05-01 05:37
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+45	$3	10¢	$5	+$2	05-01 05:17
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4	$4	100¢	$4	+$0	05-01 05:36
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+3	$3	99¢	$3	+$0	05-01 05:35
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+53	$2	4¢	$2	+$0	05-01 05:18
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+2	$2	100¢	$2	+$0	05-01 05:33
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-01 05:33
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$0	6¢	$-1	$0	10-14 16:49
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$3	2¢	$-0	-$3	10-14 16:49
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$1	1¢	$-0	-$1	10-14 16:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	60	$13.6K	13,090	13,090	+0	open	—	10-28 18:44
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	50	$7.0K	8,221	5,865	+2,356	Yes	-$2,375	10-28 21:43
bitboy convicted	17	$6.7K	5,823	5,823	+0	No	+$498	03-31 05:47
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	27	$4.6K	3,362	3,159	+203	open	—	10-13 19:42
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	134	$4.6K	7,052	7,052	+0	open	—	10-01 17:22
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	19	$4.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	08-11 21:03
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	62	$4.0K	3,526	2,840	+686	Yes	+$393	09-16 13:10
will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	14	$3.9K	1,979	1,979	+0	No	+$4	03-11 22:37
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	8	$3.2K	1,750	1,750	+0	Yes	+$233	03-31 06:07
will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	12	$3.1K	1,667	1,667	+0	Yes	+$143	03-31 03:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	25	$3.1K	12,698	0	+12,698	Yes	-$3,050	06-06 07:11
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	20	$3.0K	5,844	5,844	+0	open	—	10-28 21:52
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	46	$2.9K	6,539	6,539	+0	No	-$777	09-16 05:23
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	28	$2.8K	15,615	15,615	+0	No	-$1,241	05-19 17:52
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	16	$2.7K	2,386	2,136	+250	open	—	10-28 17:18
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	8	$2.7K	1,439	1,439	+0	Yes	+$79	03-24 19:35
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$2.6K	2,627	50	+2,577	No	+$122	05-30 11:32
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	35	$2.5K	2,079	2,079	+0	open	—	10-11 16:36
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	16	$2.5K	3,849	3,849	+0	Yes	+$86	08-28 02:28
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	67	$2.5K	1,916	1,916	+0	Yes	+$729	08-28 02:09
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	26	$2.5K	3,837	1,620	+2,217	open	—	10-27 15:54
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	14	$2.4K	3,082	3,082	+0	open	—	09-06 23:26
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	11	$2.3K	1,543	800	+743	Yes	+$48	04-27 18:00
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	14	$2.2K	1,925	1,925	+0	open	—	10-28 06:33
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	10	$2.2K	1,331	1,107	+225	Yes	+$58	04-27 18:43
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	21	$2.1K	3,666	3,323	+342	No	-$672	08-18 23:49
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,599	699	+900	open	—	10-28 21:45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	37	$2.1K	10,139	22,837	-12,698	No	-$263	06-28 17:05
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,928	569	+1,359	Yes	+$237	05-29 05:59
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	8	$2.0K	1,203	1,203	-0	open	—	09-03 02:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:38:22	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	112	2¢	$2	0xf2f556…
10-28 23:10:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0x9f0651…
10-28 21:52:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,714	49¢	$840	0xb97599…
10-28 21:52:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,333	25¢	$843	0xd6b7cf…
10-28 21:50:23	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xd353b6…
10-28 21:47:10	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	64¢	$96	0xbc6437…
10-28 21:45:56	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x3f8dc1…
10-28 21:43:02	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x9582f2…
10-28 21:42:25	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	300	19¢	$56	0xa4a1d7…
10-28 21:38:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	119	33¢	$39	0x890f1a…
10-28 21:35:47	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	83¢	$60	0x8cce4c…
10-28 21:35:47	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	83¢	$22	0x460771…
10-28 21:33:34	Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	0¢	$0	0xe957f7…
10-28 21:33:29	Will Meituan be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	0¢	$1	0xb48fe7…
10-28 21:33:22	Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0x119b4b…
10-28 21:33:16	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0xcb7ca5…
10-28 21:33:10	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	3¢	$8	0xdc83bf…
10-28 21:33:01	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	1¢	$3	0x43be8d…
10-28 21:32:56	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0xc2a704…
10-28 21:32:47	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	4¢	$11	0x30e451…
10-28 21:31:53	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x5ebdb7…
10-28 21:30:34	Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	255	88¢	$223	0xa8747d…
10-28 21:29:08	Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	130	62¢	$80	0xb73936…
10-28 21:23:37	Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	118	94¢	$111	0x2cb44e…
10-28 21:21:52	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	6¢	$13	0x948cf6…
10-28 21:20:59	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in October?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x41cc1c…
10-28 21:19:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbffde4…
10-28 21:19:08	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	0¢	$0	0xfdf3e5…
10-28 21:08:10	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xb82206…
10-28 21:02:16	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x03685c…
10-28 20:57:46	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	49¢	$84	0x337b31…
10-28 20:57:01	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	32¢	$15	0x12950f…
10-28 20:55:58	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x0d8eb1…
10-28 20:50:26	Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	205	47¢	$96	0x140f59…
10-28 20:49:38	Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	SELL	700	18¢	$126	0x3650a6…
10-28 20:42:49	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x23fc81…
10-28 20:42:49	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x012c93…
10-28 20:42:22	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	85¢	$145	0x6a15b7…
10-28 20:36:19	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	112	17¢	$19	0x675328…
10-28 20:32:43	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	75¢	$26	0x1b40e1…
10-28 20:31:58	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xf61d93…
10-28 20:30:34	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	82¢	$51	0x802122…
10-28 20:28:50	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	503	82¢	$413	0x123ec8…
10-28 20:28:08	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	94¢	$235	0x7fba79…
10-28 20:27:47	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?	No	SELL	29	81¢	$23	0xf6665e…
10-28 20:25:22	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	94¢	$235	0xf5ee76…
10-28 20:24:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	791	26¢	$208	0x3957c6…
10-28 20:07:20	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in October?	No	SELL	153	1¢	$2	0x49c1b7…
10-28 20:06:50	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in October?	Yes	BUY	312	89¢	$278	0xe1aa80…
10-28 20:05:31	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	222	4¢	$8	0xdea98d…
10-28 20:05:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	15¢	$16	0x461e3b…
10-28 19:54:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	210	21¢	$44	0x4e24b4…
10-28 19:53:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	500	27¢	$135	0x58352a…
10-28 19:53:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$75	0x5efbe7…
10-28 19:44:17	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1,250	35¢	$438	0x9d50fb…
10-28 19:43:41	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	65	80¢	$52	0xdc7855…
10-28 19:41:59	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	45¢	$70	0x3eb6bf…
10-28 19:40:47	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	79¢	$83	0xcca0b8…
10-28 19:37:49	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	94¢	$93	0xf7e0dc…
10-28 19:22:04	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	37¢	$76	0x1e6bec…
10-28 19:16:04	Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	221	97¢	$214	0x9b26de…
10-28 19:06:58	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	47¢	$130	0x9b5ff6…
10-28 18:44:35	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,599	90¢	$1,447	0x8bca8f…
10-28 18:44:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	97¢	$1,450	0x68a430…
10-28 18:11:20	Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	91	57¢	$52	0x7418ae…
10-28 17:53:56	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	48¢	$107	0x5980d4…
10-28 17:49:26	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	28¢	$560	0x2ae42e…
10-28 17:47:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	96¢	$481	0xeefa6f…
10-28 17:47:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	96¢	$313	0x9c2508…
10-28 17:41:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in October?	No	BUY	253	31¢	$78	0x505269…
10-28 17:39:37	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	65¢	$72	0x82e616…
10-28 17:39:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	322	31¢	$100	0x71d0d9…
10-28 17:38:29	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	316	3¢	$9	0xf9e142…
10-28 17:32:52	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	No	SELL	417	4¢	$15	0xb7f693…
10-28 17:30:01	Will MiniMax be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	0¢	$0	0xa9bee5…
10-28 17:29:49	Will Bytedance be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	0¢	$0	0xa1c518…
10-28 17:29:02	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	1¢	$1	0xd48204…
10-28 17:28:53	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x5ad934…
10-28 17:28:40	Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	1¢	$1	0x904400…
10-28 17:28:31	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	5¢	$8	0x3f17c7…
10-28 17:21:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	97¢	$170	0x703a6b…
10-28 17:20:17	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	300	22¢	$66	0x02da29…
10-28 17:19:17	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	2¢	$2	0x59a46c…
10-28 17:18:34	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	85¢	$212	0x5533f8…
10-28 17:14:29	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	4¢	$4	0x60f094…
10-28 17:12:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	476	42¢	$200	0xdc23b7…
10-28 17:11:08	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,800	3¢	$55	0x73cb2e…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0x5eab14…
10-28 16:02:44	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x11a092…
10-28 09:15:28	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	455	32¢	$146	0x792063…
10-28 09:14:43	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	56¢	$140	0xd817b2…
10-28 09:12:52	Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	414	18¢	$75	0xb70c11…
10-28 09:04:37	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0x8ad3f0…
10-28 09:03:23	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	229	85¢	$196	0xf2b22d…
10-28 08:52:37	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	65¢	$111	0xf6eb78…
10-28 08:51:40	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	20¢	$63	0x156365…
10-28 07:52:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0x36ba36…
10-28 07:49:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	126	27¢	$34	0x168b21…
10-28 07:48:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x685d87…
10-28 07:48:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x81efe9…