Reflecting-Pantology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$888

Unrealized P&L

+$1.03K

Hit rate

69.0%

Resolved

265

Trades

2,783

lifetime

Volume

$216.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$4.18K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 10-29 20:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

64% 69% +$386

Tech

22% 61% -$1,402

Politics

15% 48% +$128

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+4,680	$2,164	53¢	$2.5K	+$317	10-29 19:49
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+521	$407	80¢	$420	+$13	10-21 19:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+1,109	$338	34¢	$377	+$39	10-29 20:03
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+308	$240	80¢	$248	+$8	10-21 19:18
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+250	-$136	84¢	$209	+$345	10-28 17:18
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+250	$142	54¢	$134	-$9	10-28 09:14
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+203	-$338	52¢	$105	+$443	10-13 19:42
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	-85	-$76	94¢	$-79	-$3	08-04 23:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+200	$149	19¢	$38	-$111	10-28 21:42
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	05-01 05:39
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+250	$9	4¢	$10	+$1	05-01 05:07
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+9	$9	100¢	$9	+$0	05-01 05:39
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+8	$8	99¢	$8	+$0	05-01 05:38
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+7	$7	100¢	$7	+$0	05-01 05:38
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+6	$6	99¢	$6	$0	05-01 05:37
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+73	$8	8¢	$5	-$3	05-01 05:10
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+102	$6	5¢	$5	-$1	05-01 05:13
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+44	$4	12¢	$5	+$1	05-01 05:16
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	05-01 05:37
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+45	$3	10¢	$4	+$2	05-01 05:17
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4	$4	100¢	$4	+$0	05-01 05:36
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+3	$3	100¢	$3	+$0	05-01 05:35
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+53	$2	4¢	$2	+$0	05-01 05:18
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+2	$2	100¢	$2	+$0	05-01 05:33
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-01 05:33
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$2	6¢	$-1	-$3	10-29 19:36
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$0	6¢	$-1	$0	10-14 16:49
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$3	2¢	$-0	-$3	10-14 16:49
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-10	$1	1¢	$-0	-$1	10-14 16:48
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-4	$0	1¢	$-0	$0	10-14 16:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	60	$13.6K	13,090	13,090	+0	open	—	10-28 18:44
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	50	$7.0K	8,221	5,865	+2,356	Yes	-$2,375	10-28 21:43
bitboy convicted	17	$6.7K	5,823	5,823	+0	No	+$498	03-31 05:47
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	27	$4.6K	3,362	3,159	+203	open	—	10-13 19:42
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	134	$4.6K	7,052	7,052	+0	open	—	10-01 17:22
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	19	$4.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	08-11 21:03
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	62	$4.0K	3,526	2,840	+686	Yes	+$393	09-16 13:10
will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	14	$3.9K	1,979	1,979	+0	No	+$4	03-11 22:37
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	25	$3.4K	6,628	6,628	+0	open	—	10-29 17:26
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	8	$3.2K	1,750	1,750	+0	Yes	+$233	03-31 06:07
will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	12	$3.1K	1,667	1,667	+0	Yes	+$143	03-31 03:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	25	$3.1K	12,698	0	+12,698	Yes	-$3,050	06-06 07:11
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	46	$2.9K	6,539	6,539	+0	No	-$777	09-16 05:23
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	28	$2.8K	15,615	15,615	+0	No	-$1,241	05-19 17:52
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	16	$2.7K	2,386	2,136	+250	open	—	10-28 17:18
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	7	$2.7K	1,599	1,349	+250	open	—	10-29 19:04
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	8	$2.7K	1,439	1,439	+0	Yes	+$79	03-24 19:35
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$2.6K	2,627	50	+2,577	No	+$122	05-30 11:32
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	27	$2.5K	4,112	1,620	+2,492	open	—	10-29 17:31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	16	$2.5K	5,107	427	+4,680	open	—	10-29 19:49
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	35	$2.5K	2,079	2,079	+0	open	—	10-11 16:36
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	16	$2.5K	3,849	3,849	+0	Yes	+$86	08-28 02:28
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	67	$2.5K	1,916	1,916	+0	Yes	+$729	08-28 02:09
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	14	$2.4K	3,082	3,082	+0	open	—	09-06 23:26
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	11	$2.3K	1,543	800	+743	Yes	+$48	04-27 18:00
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	14	$2.2K	1,925	1,925	+0	open	—	10-28 06:33
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	10	$2.2K	1,331	1,107	+225	Yes	+$58	04-27 18:43
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	21	$2.1K	3,666	3,323	+342	No	-$672	08-18 23:49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	37	$2.1K	10,139	22,837	-12,698	No	-$263	06-28 17:05
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,928	569	+1,359	Yes	+$237	05-29 05:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:18:12	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$33	0x403d55…
10-29 20:03:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	30¢	$33	0xb663e7…
10-29 20:00:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	33¢	$69	0xa0892a…
10-29 20:00:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	33¢	$31	0x1d2891…
10-29 19:49:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x674eca…
10-29 19:49:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	34¢	$64	0xf31812…
10-29 19:49:16	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	55¢	$176	0x5bb73c…
10-29 19:41:43	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0xdb3cbd…
10-29 19:41:43	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xac35e2…
10-29 19:38:31	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0xcdba83…
10-29 19:36:06	Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x26b4fb…
10-29 19:35:13	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	250	62¢	$155	0x505e54…
10-29 19:23:13	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	34	76¢	$26	0xa2882b…
10-29 19:12:00	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	64	74¢	$47	0x975ab5…
10-29 19:10:30	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xea8fca…
10-29 19:05:46	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	197	62¢	$122	0x1744ff…
10-29 19:05:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	32¢	$158	0x2a8a7c…
10-29 19:04:40	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	86¢	$215	0x6b5ecd…
10-29 19:03:09	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	No	SELL	77	94¢	$73	0x39bd72…
10-29 19:02:30	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	205	23¢	$46	0x2905d0…
10-29 19:01:40	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	170	15¢	$26	0xf8cd75…
10-29 17:31:53	Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	275	29¢	$80	0x1e9b40…
10-29 17:31:01	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0x02c1f2…
10-29 17:28:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	55¢	$550	0x3a4c99…
10-29 17:27:29	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	385	82¢	$316	0xd59fb7…
10-29 17:26:46	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	785	25¢	$195	0xaae02d…
10-29 17:26:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	408	56¢	$229	0x99bd1c…
10-29 17:19:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x59be09…
10-29 17:18:07	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	70	88¢	$62	0x845a88…
10-29 17:12:08	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	457	55¢	$250	0x03f5d9…
10-29 17:11:34	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	364	52¢	$188	0x0f6601…
10-29 17:11:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x166c34…
10-29 17:10:52	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	536	69¢	$370	0x4b8257…
10-29 17:09:10	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1550 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	64	87¢	$55	0x90381e…
10-29 17:07:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	39¢	$84	0xbbd04a…
10-29 17:04:46	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	250	77¢	$192	0x2abb26…
10-29 17:02:35	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	195	23¢	$45	0xbeae10…
10-29 16:40:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	408	55¢	$224	0x11b9c1…
10-29 16:31:07	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x6980ee…
10-29 16:19:46	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	52¢	$520	0x355f63…
10-29 16:19:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?	No	BUY	106	78¢	$83	0x7749f9…
10-29 16:03:22	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	79¢	$63	0xfe2c92…
10-29 14:30:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 18% or more?	Yes	BUY	275	11¢	$30	0x2a5cf3…
10-29 14:19:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 15%-18%?	No	BUY	47	88¢	$41	0xb5c90c…
10-29 14:18:40	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	53	8¢	$4	0x3009e5…
10-29 14:09:55	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	71	68¢	$48	0x78cf72…
10-29 13:08:13	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x18d6b0…
10-29 13:07:31	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0x268bba…
10-29 12:55:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	71¢	$710	0x879712…
10-29 10:48:26	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	33	25¢	$8	0xaa00e0…
10-29 10:36:43	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	18	25¢	$5	0xa08822…
10-29 10:32:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	348	25¢	$87	0xb153bd…
10-29 10:13:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	898	54¢	$485	0x163e21…
10-29 09:38:22	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	112	2¢	$2	0xf2f556…
10-28 23:10:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0x9f0651…
10-28 21:52:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,714	49¢	$840	0xb97599…
10-28 21:52:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	3,333	25¢	$843	0xd6b7cf…
10-28 21:50:23	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xd353b6…
10-28 21:47:10	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	64¢	$96	0xbc6437…
10-28 21:45:56	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x3f8dc1…
10-28 21:43:02	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x9582f2…
10-28 21:42:25	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	300	19¢	$56	0xa4a1d7…
10-28 21:38:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	119	33¢	$39	0x890f1a…
10-28 21:35:47	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	83¢	$60	0x8cce4c…
10-28 21:35:47	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	83¢	$22	0x460771…
10-28 21:33:34	Will StepFun be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	0¢	$0	0xe957f7…
10-28 21:33:29	Will Meituan be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	0¢	$1	0xb48fe7…
10-28 21:33:22	Will MiniMax be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0x119b4b…
10-28 21:33:16	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0xcb7ca5…
10-28 21:33:10	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	3¢	$8	0xdc83bf…
10-28 21:33:01	Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	1¢	$3	0x43be8d…
10-28 21:32:56	Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$5	0xc2a704…
10-28 21:32:47	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	4¢	$11	0x30e451…
10-28 21:31:53	Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x5ebdb7…
10-28 21:30:34	Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	255	88¢	$223	0xa8747d…
10-28 21:29:08	Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	130	62¢	$80	0xb73936…
10-28 21:23:37	Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	118	94¢	$111	0x2cb44e…
10-28 21:21:52	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	6¢	$13	0x948cf6…
10-28 21:20:59	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in October?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x41cc1c…
10-28 21:19:58	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbffde4…
10-28 21:19:08	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	0¢	$0	0xfdf3e5…
10-28 21:08:10	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xb82206…
10-28 21:02:16	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x03685c…
10-28 20:57:46	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	49¢	$84	0x337b31…
10-28 20:57:01	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	32¢	$15	0x12950f…
10-28 20:55:58	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x0d8eb1…
10-28 20:50:26	Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	205	47¢	$96	0x140f59…
10-28 20:49:38	Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	SELL	700	18¢	$126	0x3650a6…
10-28 20:42:49	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x23fc81…
10-28 20:42:49	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x012c93…
10-28 20:42:22	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	85¢	$145	0x6a15b7…
10-28 20:36:19	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	112	17¢	$19	0x675328…
10-28 20:32:43	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	75¢	$26	0x1b40e1…
10-28 20:31:58	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xf61d93…
10-28 20:30:34	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	82¢	$51	0x802122…
10-28 20:28:50	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	503	82¢	$413	0x123ec8…
10-28 20:28:08	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	94¢	$235	0x7fba79…
10-28 20:27:47	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?	No	SELL	29	81¢	$23	0xf6665e…
10-28 20:25:22	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	94¢	$235	0xf5ee76…
10-28 20:24:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	791	26¢	$208	0x3957c6…