Taut-Cottage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.44K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

Trades

248

lifetime

Volume

$31.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$128

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 09-11 12:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

48% 44% +$37

Other

27% 45% -$2,550

Politics

11% 33% -$1,414

Tech

8% 60% -$144

Sports

5% 50% -$371

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	12	$7.6K	5,454	5,454	+0	No	+$1,104	06-01 17:08
will bitcoin dip to 60k in june 2026	2	$2.3K	2,286	2,286	+0	Yes	+$377	06-04 06:44
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.6K	99,422	99,422	+0	No	-$398	06-18 10:58
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	18	$1.6K	860	860	+0	Yes	+$77	08-15 12:05
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.1K	9,800	9,800	+0	No	-$931	06-23 10:13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$1.1K	892	892	+0	No	+$62	06-18 20:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 08:00 UTC	1	$1000	1,634	0	+1,634	Up	+$634	06-24 08:04
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	3	$800	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$800	09-01 17:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$769	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$449	06-23 10:13
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	3	$648	823	0	+823	Yes	+$175	03-04 14:39
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	4	$579	979	59	+920	No	-$521	03-04 14:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$533	2,946	2,946	+0	No	-$351	04-21 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$500	1,528	0	+1,528	Down	-$500	09-11 12:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$500	1,350	0	+1,350	No	-$500	09-10 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	1	$482	1,836	0	+1,836	Up	-$482	09-01 21:41
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	3	$440	275	275	+0	open	—	08-07 11:53
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	4	$425	550	0	+550	Yes	+$125	08-22 11:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$400	208	208	+0	No	+$8	06-05 19:07
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	6	$399	594	0	+594	Yes	+$195	08-22 10:44
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	5	$358	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$171	06-23 10:12
bitcoin up or down march 6 11am et	2	$358	262	258	+4	Down	+$162	03-06 17:22
will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	7	$348	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$182	06-23 10:12
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	2	$343	243	243	+0	No	+$2	08-20 11:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 14:05 UTC	2	$337	176	176	+0	Up	+$9	03-17 14:08
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	6	$289	250	250	+0	Yes	-$134	07-27 15:27
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	11	$247	654	654	+0	No	-$178	06-23 10:12
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	1	$240	314	0	+314	Yes	+$74	07-02 15:04
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$238	150	150	+0	Yes	+$20	07-15 15:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	2	$235	140	140	+0	Yes	+$34	06-02 15:14
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$232	230	230	+0	Yes	+$7	06-03 10:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 12:20:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1,528	33¢	$500	0xb2b26a…
09-10 14:22:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0x87aede…
09-10 14:20:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,350	37¢	$500	0x2784ad…
09-03 15:43:58	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	SELL	229	8¢	$18	0x636572…
09-03 15:40:36	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	15¢	$38	0xe65d0d…
09-03 15:40:04	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	11¢	$8	0x5e2036…
09-03 11:06:37	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xa4b580…
09-01 21:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1,836	26¢	$482	0x720035…
09-01 17:09:10	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	76	80¢	$61	0x05bbf5…
09-01 17:00:18	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	566	80¢	$453	0xc00b68…
09-01 16:51:33	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	358	80¢	$286	0x94e23e…
08-24 10:39:28	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	58¢	$54	0xf7f794…
08-24 09:30:28	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	58¢	$96	0x3f0fc2…
08-22 11:55:03	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x285ec4…
08-22 10:44:00	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	34¢	$56	0x88c481…
08-22 10:38:07	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0xf5fac3…
08-22 10:36:40	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0xcb4033…
08-21 11:44:22	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x312dfb…
08-21 11:43:37	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0xe2f244…
08-21 04:44:46	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	83¢	$349	0x3d3087…
08-21 02:54:57	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	242	85¢	$205	0xcb1fad…
08-20 16:50:43	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xbaf9c3…
08-20 16:50:42	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc254c5…
08-20 16:50:42	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xad40ec…
08-20 16:50:27	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0xe503b0…
08-20 16:50:27	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xd9565c…
08-20 16:50:27	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x95c097…
08-20 16:50:27	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x8b4a26…
08-20 16:50:27	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x69de05…
08-20 16:50:25	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0f09a0…
08-20 16:50:24	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x7e92a2…
08-20 16:50:24	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x1acaab…
08-20 16:12:55	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	85¢	$76	0xa99d11…
08-20 14:04:33	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xbca4a0…
08-20 11:59:12	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	71¢	$173	0x652704…
08-20 11:53:03	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xaef175…
08-20 11:50:34	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	243	70¢	$170	0x83cf70…
08-20 11:40:21	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0x508e0d…
08-20 11:16:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x7d92ac…
08-20 11:16:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0x2c2637…
08-16 19:26:52	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0xfee1ad…
08-16 19:26:52	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9a8224…
08-16 19:26:52	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x768f6a…
08-15 12:05:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	95¢	$201	0x79dee7…
08-15 00:11:13	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x29b845…
08-14 16:54:03	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xa08e8a…
08-14 16:48:39	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0xed6b3d…
08-14 05:55:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe1c5e7…
08-14 04:15:16	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xf64cf6…
08-14 00:31:06	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0x38885f…
08-14 00:07:19	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xf8f51a…
08-13 17:33:19	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	95¢	$149	0x717e5c…
08-12 15:01:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x5b1385…
08-12 01:04:51	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc0dadd…
08-12 00:58:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x032cf7…
08-12 00:19:37	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x784136…
08-12 00:04:31	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xb2e33a…
08-11 04:45:54	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x02b759…
08-11 00:36:58	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1ba56e…
08-11 00:06:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	95¢	$167	0x5c30e5…
08-07 11:53:39	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	275	87¢	$239	0x433d1e…
08-07 08:43:13	will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1520 by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xa63339…
08-05 01:08:03	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	18¢	$45	0xa4ee93…
08-04 11:57:42	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x3d10cf…
08-04 11:18:41	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	860	86¢	$740	0x94e023…
08-04 11:13:18	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	125	74¢	$92	0x1b9cae…
08-04 11:00:38	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x7cd83d…
07-31 07:53:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	164	15¢	$25	0x004b7c…
07-31 07:52:11	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0x3ba2d6…
07-31 07:50:56	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x87b78c…
07-30 11:39:24	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0x24ec2c…
07-29 13:07:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	410	24¢	$100	0x4b0cb0…
07-27 15:29:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	140	67¢	$94	0x1cd689…
07-27 15:27:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	73	31¢	$23	0x912f45…
07-27 15:24:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0xf5ba3e…
07-27 15:22:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0xeb99bc…
07-27 15:21:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	46	31¢	$14	0xe8bf68…
07-25 13:30:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x1d40e3…
07-23 12:45:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	230	85¢	$196	0xe36fd4…
07-22 14:58:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	24¢	$49	0x3451fe…
07-22 14:50:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	410	24¢	$99	0x830177…
07-22 14:38:34	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	267	71¢	$189	0x1f85bb…
07-18 13:17:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts	Yes	BUY	97	69¢	$67	0x997623…
07-15 16:03:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	159	12¢	$20	0x230614…
07-15 16:03:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0b10e1…
07-15 16:02:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	832	11¢	$92	0xa0afc8…
07-15 15:54:13	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	86¢	$129	0x0b3c29…
07-15 15:39:47	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	170	53¢	$90	0x1dd5b4…
07-14 15:35:46	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$73	0x7805cc…
07-14 15:33:22	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	No	BUY	125	7¢	$9	0xf064df…
07-13 14:39:02	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	24¢	$36	0x094754…
07-13 14:38:32	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	24¢	$83	0x6d761f…
07-07 14:39:38	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	73¢	$110	0x2275e0…
07-02 15:04:56	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	314	76¢	$240	0x43cb38…
07-01 22:29:13	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x4200de…
07-01 22:28:41	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	BUY	59	42¢	$25	0x613c06…
06-29 14:42:16	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xef99bd…
06-29 14:42:11	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x1b1610…
06-29 14:41:32	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0xa6e241…
06-28 07:27:16	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x1e2852…