Infatuated-Nun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$225

Hit rate

38.9%

Resolved

6,397

Trades

26,869

lifetime

Volume

$565.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$2.41K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 10-27 07:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 172 days

Categories

Other

72% 40% -$12,879

Politics

17% 37% -$2,159

Tech

6% 33% -$812

Sports

4% 41% -$314

Crypto

1% 28% -$271

Pop-Culture

1% 19% -$260

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 746 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+240	$178	68¢	$164	-$13	10-11 13:31
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+160	$123	87¢	$139	+$16	10-26 10:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+146	$105	88¢	$129	+$24	10-06 08:17
will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	No	+168	$78	71¢	$119	+$41	09-30 22:28
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	+100	$71	96¢	$96	+$25	09-23 09:21
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+157	$90	61¢	$95	+$5	10-19 23:28
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+100	$80	95¢	$95	+$15	10-24 00:52
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+91	$34	98¢	$89	+$56	10-04 14:21
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	+101	$80	86¢	$87	+$7	10-24 16:21
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	Yes	+99	$59	86¢	$85	+$26	10-13 15:57
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+101	$86	82¢	$82	-$4	10-24 00:23
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	No	+100	$78	82¢	$82	+$4	10-26 03:11
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$82	80¢	$80	-$3	10-22 11:32
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?	No	+100	$62	74¢	$74	+$12	10-22 11:32
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	+86	$69	86¢	$74	+$5	10-23 05:25
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	No	+75	$61	98¢	$73	+$12	09-13 15:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+120	$80	60¢	$73	-$8	10-13 18:48
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+120	$77	57¢	$69	-$8	10-09 08:47
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+99	$56	69¢	$68	+$13	09-22 11:14
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	+86	$68	80¢	$68	+$0	10-27 08:40
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	+80	$64	79¢	$63	-$1	10-26 01:18
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+63	$25	98¢	$62	+$38	10-06 14:16
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+157	$62	39¢	$61	-$1	10-25 01:38
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	+63	$49	96¢	$61	+$12	10-22 11:32
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	No	+76	$58	79¢	$60	+$2	10-10 13:13
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	+100	$79	59¢	$59	-$20	09-30 07:44
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	+61	$48	86¢	$53	+$5	10-22 13:31
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+100	$61	52¢	$52	-$9	10-26 19:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+120	$43	42¢	$51	+$8	10-15 04:27
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	+65	$84	74¢	$49	-$35	09-30 13:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	32	$1.5K	1,357	1,257	+100	open	—	10-22 14:25
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	5	$1.5K	800	800	+0	No	-$8	06-12 06:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	34	$1.4K	1,318	1,191	+127	open	—	10-22 23:44
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	29	$1.2K	996	996	+0	open	—	10-03 06:44
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	23	$1.1K	946	846	+100	open	—	10-26 10:58
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	27	$1.1K	1,107	794	+313	open	—	10-22 19:20
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	25	$1.0K	887	823	+64	open	—	10-20 23:04
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	22	$1.0K	971	712	+258	Yes	-$41	09-19 04:05
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	22	$916	866	517	+349	No	-$7	09-19 20:28
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?	25	$907	887	662	+225	open	—	10-11 12:22
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	29	$899	898	734	+164	open	—	10-16 02:59
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	25	$880	905	892	+13	open	—	10-21 12:18
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	26	$880	895	836	+59	open	—	10-27 06:07
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	25	$876	917	713	+204	open	—	10-08 21:49
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	27	$873	955	732	+222	open	—	10-27 01:46
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	19	$846	623	623	+1	open	—	10-13 04:34
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	24	$833	862	796	+67	open	—	10-21 03:22
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	25	$822	994	709	+285	open	—	09-19 12:48
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	31	$808	811	786	+25	Yes	-$37	09-25 17:19
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	18	$783	885	615	+270	Yes	-$75	09-22 16:51
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	18	$777	917	733	+184	open	—	10-19 12:08
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	16	$768	699	644	+55	open	—	10-27 08:53
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	32	$759	829	687	+142	No	+$20	09-24 02:21
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	31	$758	1,015	1,004	+11	No	-$10	09-26 14:14
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	22	$756	840	755	+85	Yes	-$32	09-19 06:13
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	23	$755	738	704	+34	open	—	10-27 02:18
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	20	$752	681	661	+20	open	—	10-06 11:09
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	24	$747	816	782	+33	Yes	-$31	09-25 18:09
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	27	$747	916	581	+336	open	—	09-30 22:28
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	12	$726	628	628	+0	No	-$10	10-17 15:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:00:29	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0xecb192…
10-27 08:59:56	Will Monza be relegated from the 2026-27 Serie A?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xa067a3…
10-27 08:59:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x705c58…
10-27 08:58:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x7c3794…
10-27 08:58:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0x02dae1…
10-27 08:53:56	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4d9f6f…
10-27 08:52:35	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x723b9b…
10-27 08:52:35	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x5d6040…
10-27 08:48:08	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x24b5e4…
10-27 08:42:42	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	13	47¢	$6	0x5ea367…
10-27 08:42:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x570416…
10-27 08:42:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	91	33¢	$30	0x05936b…
10-27 08:42:41	Will Post Malone perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	97	87¢	$85	0xe9d31d…
10-27 08:42:41	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xa5fa1d…
10-27 08:42:41	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-25 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x89250c…
10-27 08:42:41	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x67c394…
10-27 08:42:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	73	12¢	$9	0xe2b82d…
10-27 08:42:39	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0xab4639…
10-27 08:42:39	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x988597…
10-27 08:41:14	Will the Los Angeles Kings record 90+ points?	No	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xf3f56e…
10-27 08:40:59	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	79¢	$68	0x6280d9…
10-27 08:32:30	Will Trey McBride finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	No	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0xf03a4c…
10-27 08:32:30	Will Trey McBride finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x9ac546…
10-27 08:22:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x3dbc60…
10-27 08:05:18	Will Kyren Williams have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0xc55fc1…
10-27 08:01:14	Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	24¢	$12	0xdd5db2…
10-27 07:45:14	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xe2a7cf…
10-27 07:44:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xc6be2b…
10-27 07:42:14	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x3d2648…
10-27 07:41:41	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x13123d…
10-27 07:37:11	Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x8f324d…
10-27 07:32:03	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x8f1fc6…
10-27 07:32:03	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	75	33¢	$25	0x2255b2…
10-27 07:29:32	Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x492c13…
10-27 07:27:36	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb50a41…
10-27 07:24:33	Will Abby McKibben win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xb89a15…
10-27 07:22:56	Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x65eb31…
10-27 07:22:09	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x06868a…
10-27 07:21:20	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe0a95d…
10-27 06:34:20	Will Canza launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x666888…
10-27 06:24:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8d7361…
10-27 06:07:30	Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0xf4390f…
10-27 06:07:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-17 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xf421e5…
10-27 06:07:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	70	60¢	$42	0x9cc8fe…
10-27 06:07:30	Will "The Black Ball" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x2a734c…
10-27 06:07:29	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	49	31¢	$15	0xed44b0…
10-27 06:07:29	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	32¢	$26	0x367da6…
10-27 06:07:29	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0x107857…
10-27 06:07:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 UT-01 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	119	73¢	$87	0xe75743…
10-27 06:07:27	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x61a194…
10-27 06:07:27	Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x598ccb…
10-27 06:07:02	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xdbe412…
10-27 06:07:02	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x1f241f…
10-27 06:07:02	Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x1dfa08…
10-27 06:07:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	30	61¢	$18	0x9b68fc…
10-27 06:07:00	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0x796a96…
10-27 06:07:00	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	58	60¢	$35	0x51d33a…
10-27 06:06:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-01 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	88	85¢	$74	0xa4a4ac…
10-27 06:06:59	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x8d2ade…
10-27 06:06:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0x854509…
10-27 06:06:59	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x52dbad…
10-27 06:02:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x7e6ea0…
10-27 06:02:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 5%-10%?	No	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x3b2ffa…
10-27 05:50:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x57c331…
10-27 05:50:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	66	22¢	$15	0x11da50…
10-27 05:50:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x0d2e51…
10-27 05:46:12	Will Javonte Williams have 11.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x83f5fb…
10-27 05:46:12	Will Javonte Williams have 11.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x0add7c…
10-27 05:44:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0x27b9b8…
10-27 05:39:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x6b10f6…
10-27 05:39:26	Will the Orlando Magic make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x3f3be5…
10-27 05:38:45	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x4b686b…
10-27 05:36:54	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x6eedce…
10-27 05:30:17	Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1468fe…
10-27 05:00:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xd9662a…
10-27 04:52:23	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xb76a1f…
10-27 04:31:57	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x2b491a…
10-27 04:27:56	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xbcd60a…
10-27 04:14:36	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x4eb891…
10-27 03:37:17	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4e0767…
10-27 03:09:02	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	68	30¢	$20	0x225abc…
10-27 02:47:24	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x74d916…
10-27 02:45:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xe0a353…
10-27 02:45:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xd2a6f6…
10-27 02:45:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xb0c4e8…
10-27 02:45:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-01 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x96b91e…
10-27 02:45:00	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	24	87¢	$20	0x714cac…
10-27 02:43:33	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x3e23c8…
10-27 02:38:53	Will Post Malone perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	97	92¢	$89	0xedfe98…
10-27 02:37:08	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xc031a0…
10-27 02:18:30	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xe4f5bf…
10-27 02:18:29	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xb33ee7…
10-27 02:18:29	Will "Spilled Milk" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x89c6be…
10-27 02:18:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x6f1032…
10-27 02:18:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Yes	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0xe3f603…
10-27 02:18:27	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	SELL	81	76¢	$61	0x9fc787…
10-27 02:18:27	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	38	45¢	$17	0x7b2e48…
10-27 02:18:27	Will 2026 rank between 10th and 12th among the highest domestic box office years?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x6e2bec…
10-27 02:18:26	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in November?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x6eaf2d…
10-27 02:18:26	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x3a1e61…