Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$830
$60 in 24h
Trades
44
Unique wallets
21
Liquidity
$643
Latest YES mid
26¢
Latest NO mid
74¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-07 06:15
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $36 | $55 | $19 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $5 | $9 | $4 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $5 | $15 | $9 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $113 | $13 | +$100 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $30 | $55 | $25 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | $9 | $9 |
| Median | 3 | $1 | $1 | +$0 |
| Below median | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $12 | — | +$12 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 5 | $109 | $26 | +$82 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +97 | $55 | $55 | 4 | 07-05 22:41 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +95 | $25 | $25 | 4 | 06-30 19:54 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +32 | $8 | $15 | 3 | 07-04 22:02 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-17 22:00 |
| Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-17 22:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | +7 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Essential-Postage 0x8c5c…6b4a | Yes | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-17 22:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-07 06:15 |
| Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 19:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +1 | $-1 | $8 | 2 | 07-07 06:15 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 06:15:31 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | No | SELL | 15 | 71¢ | $11 | 0x8a4915… |
| 07-07 06:15:31 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 29¢ | $4 | 0x8a4915… |
| 07-07 06:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x797eb0… |
| 07-07 06:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x797eb0… |
| 07-06 09:05:10 | (anonymous) 0x4610…5039 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x43688f… |
| 07-06 09:05:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x43688f… |
| 07-05 22:41:25 | (anonymous) 0x4610…5039 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 34¢ | $5 | 0xe5c0aa… |
| 07-05 22:41:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 16 | 66¢ | $11 | 0xe5c0aa… |
| 07-04 22:02:25 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0xec6e22… |
| 07-04 22:02:25 | (anonymous) 0xbecc…f560 | No | SELL | 5 | 64¢ | $3 | 0xec6e22… |
| 06-30 19:54:07 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | No | BUY | 5 | 78¢ | $4 | 0xaa0ac9… |
| 06-30 19:54:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xaa0ac9… |
| 06-30 19:51:47 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x4c8666… |
| 06-30 19:51:47 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x4c8666… |
| 06-30 17:01:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x7e225b… |
| 06-30 17:01:14 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x7e225b… |
| 06-30 10:14:50 | (anonymous) 0x5bfc…de8f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x16d6ae… |
| 06-30 10:14:50 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x16d6ae… |
| 06-22 09:27:26 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 26¢ | $0 | 0x0b3210… |
| 06-22 09:27:26 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 345 | 26¢ | $90 | 0x0b3210… |
| 06-22 09:27:26 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 344 | 74¢ | $255 | 0x0b3210… |
| 06-17 22:04:20 | Essential-Postage 0x8c5c…6b4a | Yes | BUY | 6 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xe6d6e8… |
| 06-17 22:04:20 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xe6d6e8… |
| 06-17 22:00:02 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x75cc81… |
| 06-17 22:00:02 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0x75cc81… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x49b1…0f4d | No | SELL | 1 | 68¢ | $1 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 73¢ | $5 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 28¢ | $12 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 75 | 75¢ | $56 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 27¢ | $21 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | Cuddly-Tussle 0xf179…fd27 | Yes | SELL | 219 | 27¢ | $58 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 13:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xb384e6… |
| 06-16 12:29:16 | Cuddly-Tussle 0xf179…fd27 | Yes | BUY | 219 | 46¢ | $100 | 0x0599cd… |
| 06-16 12:29:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 64 | 55¢ | $35 | 0x0599cd… |
| 06-16 12:29:16 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 155 | 46¢ | $71 | 0x0599cd… |
| 06-11 19:15:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0x311fb8… |
| 06-11 19:15:51 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x311fb8… |
| 06-11 19:10:10 | Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | No | BUY | 2 | 66¢ | $1 | 0xfa8432… |
| 06-11 19:10:10 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 34¢ | $1 | 0xfa8432… |
| 06-04 05:56:06 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 20 | 56¢ | $11 | 0x7e44d9… |
| 06-04 05:56:06 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 8 | 57¢ | $5 | 0x7e44d9… |
| 06-04 05:56:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 12 | 56¢ | $7 | 0x7e44d9… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | SELL | 7 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xe7148d… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 7 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xe7148d… |