Minor-Oregano — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.4%

Resolved

Trades

520

lifetime

Volume

$1.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 08-11 22:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

56% 67% +$4

Other

28% 43% $-2

Crypto

16% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	17	$81	56	56	+0	open	—	05-13 02:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	14	$65	66	64	+3	open	—	04-22 01:07
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	8	$51	95	95	+0	open	—	05-01 13:34
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	9	$43	58	58	+0	open	—	05-01 13:34
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	8	$32	31	30	+1	open	—	04-26 13:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	3	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	05-13 02:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	7	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	05-04 20:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	10	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	05-31 02:14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	7	$19	25	24	+1	open	—	04-22 01:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	04-24 16:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$17	62	62	+0	No	$-5	05-07 21:40
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May?	3	$17	17	13	+4	open	—	05-13 20:37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$16	11	11	+0	No	+$4	04-29 14:57
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	4	$14	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 03:56
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	2	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	04-26 22:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	05-06 20:19
btc updown 5m 1776733800	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 01:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-22 22:56
btc updown 5m 1776732900	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-21 00:57
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	4	$10	28	28	+0	open	—	04-25 16:23
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	3	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	04-29 19:32
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$10	3	18	-15	open	—	06-30 15:32
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	2	$10	12	12	+0	Yes	+$4	04-27 18:33
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$9	9	6	+3	open	—	04-20 19:33
Canada recession before 2027?	2	$9	28	0	+28	open	—	05-07 18:10
iran closes its airspace by june 15	4	$9	12	12	+0	open	—	06-07 19:20
btc updown 5m 1776690900	4	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	04-20 13:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	3	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-24 16:12
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-29 19:50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	04-24 01:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 22:30:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x3f42e0…
08-08 22:45:00	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfa1973…
08-06 20:44:14	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x605eb4…
08-06 20:41:18	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xae0a9f…
08-06 20:40:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x3075df…
08-06 20:39:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd87d80…
08-06 20:38:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x126d08…
08-06 20:38:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb120c6…
08-04 16:36:48	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x27e2f4…
08-04 16:36:32	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa673ef…
08-02 20:14:38	will iran target a arab country on august 10 2026 20260801004719127	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x44e823…
08-02 20:14:14	will iran target a arab country on august 9 2026 20260801004719126	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6a5059…
08-02 20:14:08	will iran target a arab country on august 8 2026 20260801004719125	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9cd1b9…
08-02 20:11:15	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa4748b…
08-02 20:09:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8c543d…
07-30 15:45:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xda67f3…
07-30 15:44:30	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x96bb3a…
07-27 16:43:18	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe5e965…
07-27 15:39:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4713f2…
07-20 19:59:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6a55c2…
07-20 19:58:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc30dfc…
07-20 19:57:15	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x18f877…
07-09 16:59:17	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xbd1627…
07-09 16:59:17	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3f2f56…
07-08 16:11:25	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x7e68fb…
07-06 04:02:56	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x1c5844…
07-01 15:33:40	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf987d3…
07-01 14:54:25	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xa4afce…
07-01 14:52:37	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0xddf0bf…
06-30 15:39:16	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb64aec…
06-30 15:32:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	52¢	$9	0xfc05f7…
06-28 15:32:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x145afe…
06-28 15:17:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x29bbd6…
06-27 14:15:46	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xae42d7…
06-27 14:09:17	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x110956…
06-22 14:57:32	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb0a78d…
06-22 14:57:32	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x41d7b4…
06-20 15:35:07	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4a34e7…
06-15 19:30:28	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x27bdec…
06-12 15:41:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x942a9b…
06-12 15:37:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb9a496…
06-11 19:10:10	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xfa8432…
06-11 14:25:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0436b8…
06-11 14:22:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x69c58e…
06-11 14:20:27	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2dd517…
06-11 14:17:31	spx up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x2d07de…
06-11 14:09:24	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7de322…
06-11 14:09:07	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe19428…
06-10 13:42:07	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x09d7e8…
06-10 11:20:04	spx up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x388733…
06-10 04:57:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc84676…
06-10 04:56:42	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x09ab8e…
06-10 04:48:31	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xfd5b5f…
06-08 02:58:30	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x217bae…
06-08 02:31:39	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xff6fd8…
06-08 02:29:48	will solana dip to 50 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf94ee3…
06-08 02:29:09	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x18bb18…
06-08 02:26:04	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x1cdf94…
06-07 19:20:49	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x642830…
06-07 18:59:03	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xe22f81…
06-07 18:58:01	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0xc87e2e…
06-07 00:58:30	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x532a93…
06-07 00:30:01	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x69821c…
06-07 00:23:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd47fc9…
06-05 02:57:27	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x70f278…
06-04 17:14:57	spx opens up or down on june 4 2026	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc918cb…
06-04 17:13:36	spx opens up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x97a0c0…
06-03 21:21:33	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xca380f…
06-03 21:05:31	spx opens up or down on june 4 2026	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x577d45…
06-03 20:23:16	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb5cdca…
06-03 13:56:06	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe874b8…
06-03 02:04:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb89908…
06-03 02:01:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1fb5e7…
06-02 19:02:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x55ad5e…
06-02 18:57:51	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9daf6e…
06-02 02:59:56	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2a3c82…
06-01 14:54:00	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x3512ab…
06-01 14:46:20	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x067273…
06-01 14:28:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x686106…
06-01 14:27:55	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa5e7bf…
05-31 17:10:17	Japan recession in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x973c51…
05-31 03:02:57	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb4cbcf…
05-31 03:02:35	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xecf7ba…
05-31 02:54:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x042047…
05-31 02:53:53	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbb0ef5…
05-31 02:53:02	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x34d8f9…
05-31 02:52:52	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x7a6f9e…
05-31 02:49:53	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x24e743…
05-31 02:49:45	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xae83fb…
05-31 02:35:01	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x52a77b…
05-31 02:30:45	Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x001f1b…
05-31 02:14:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xeef15a…
05-30 22:07:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0x011e79…
05-30 21:34:27	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x1b167b…
05-30 21:34:18	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbf6dca…
05-30 14:37:33	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5d1624…
05-30 14:35:58	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x24baea…
05-30 14:32:21	Japan recession in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6f85f7…
05-30 14:31:55	UK Recession in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5866ee…
05-30 14:09:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x81ff6b…