Realized P&L
+$11
Unrealized P&L
-$55
Hit rate
17.5%
Resolved
18
Trades
53,834
lifetime
Volume
$520.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.09K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 06-30 11:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 9 days
Categories
Sports
79% 40% $-7
Other
13% 33% $-32
Politics
7% 50% +$50
Crypto
1%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 2056 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -216 $-198 94¢ $-203 $-5 06-29 18:57
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes -119 $-71 56¢ $-67 +$4 06-26 14:14
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No -86 $-67 78¢ $-66 +$1 06-26 07:26
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No -60 $-51 91¢ $-55 $-3 06-05 15:02
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +52 $39 91¢ $47 +$7 06-25 00:34
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No -85 $-43 50¢ $-42 +$1 06-18 19:43
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -45 $-41 92¢ $-42 $-0 06-04 02:56
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -78 $-8 52¢ $-41 $-33 06-25 15:22
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No +85 $36 48¢ $41 +$5 06-21 05:31
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $47 64¢ $39 $-9 06-26 23:39
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No -40 $-38 94¢ $-38 $-0 06-17 14:02
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No +39 $36 94¢ $37 +$1 06-15 03:42
Anduril IPO before 2027? No +37 $29 90¢ $33 +$4 06-24 02:30
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No -32 $-28 97¢ $-31 $-3 06-03 04:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +31 $28 95¢ $29 +$1 06-29 19:29
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +30 $29 96¢ $29 $-0 06-29 12:37
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes +151 $25 18¢ $26 +$1 06-27 00:17
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +49 $45 48¢ $23 $-21 06-25 14:42
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No +26 $23 89¢ $23 $-0 06-23 13:32
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -24 $-22 91¢ $-22 +$0 06-27 12:59
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No -19 $-18 95¢ $-18 +$0 06-26 00:38
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes -56 $-22 31¢ $-17 +$4 06-25 00:05
Vanta IPO before 2027? Yes +150 $21 12¢ $17 $-4 06-22 15:32
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No +17 $14 96¢ $16 +$2 06-29 03:56
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +109 $18 15¢ $16 $-2 06-30 10:27
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes +28 $15 50¢ $14 $-0 06-04 06:57
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +15 $13 94¢ $14 +$1 06-24 10:33
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes +28 $14 50¢ $14 $-0 06-18 13:29
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? Yes +150 $21 $14 $-7 06-20 14:52
Stripe IPO before 2027? No +14 $12 94¢ $13 +$1 06-24 04:04