Evergreen-Wifi — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$16.2K

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved

200

Trades

5,645

lifetime

Volume

$7.48M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.33K

Open exposure

$36.5K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 04:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Other

81% 57% +$155,987

Politics

14% 72% -$196,928

Crypto

5% 62% -$15,858

Tech

0% 100% +$87

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-17,992	-$6,473	85¢	$-15212	-$8,739	10-27 15:14
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	+6,183	$4,611	93¢	$5.7K	+$1,124	10-05 12:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+4,119	$3,100	86¢	$3.6K	+$455	06-12 11:20
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10,000	$6,800	30¢	$3.0K	-$3,750	05-07 04:56
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	-2,996	-$3,119	98¢	$-2942	+$177	10-11 02:26
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,423	$2,976	92¢	$2.2K	-$734	07-23 11:33
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+15,000	$6,750	12¢	$1.9K	-$4,875	05-12 11:13
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+1,645	$1,546	94¢	$1.6K	+$4	06-24 11:08
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	No	-344	-$255	98¢	$-336	-$81	06-22 09:27
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	-510	-$120	3¢	$-17	+$103	10-27 15:12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-10	-$109	94¢	$-9	+$100	07-14 17:49
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	50¢	$2	-$2	06-24 12:17
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+53	$22	4¢	$2	-$20	06-11 13:29
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	-5	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	10-16 12:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	440	$999.7K	634,082	634,080	+2	Yes	-$106,875	07-29 17:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	221	$813.3K	591,560	269,772	+321,788	Yes	+$30,761	01-28 21:48
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	233	$714.4K	676,291	108,510	+567,781	Yes	+$69,635	03-18 18:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1,059	$627.2K	455,715	198,696	+257,019	Yes	+$23,835	04-29 18:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	96	$543.6K	359,305	242,340	+116,966	No	-$14,254	03-28 16:10
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	240	$486.4K	245,333	245,333	+0	No	+$1,800	07-14 12:35
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	8	$417.2K	210,000	210,000	+0	No	+$818	10-22 15:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	200	$380.2K	399,919	45,987	+353,932	Yes	+$49,150	10-27 15:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	128	$340.8K	286,951	280,065	+6,886	Yes	-$184,815	04-07 23:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$267.1K	262,228	6,500	+255,728	No	+$1,554	07-28 22:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	235	$259.2K	215,382	50,000	+165,382	Yes	+$6,044	06-17 18:05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	109	$208.7K	116,000	116,010	-10	open	—	07-14 17:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	247	$176.8K	64,000	118,437	-54,438	No	+$3,038	06-15 14:08
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	140	$152.6K	78,677	74,488	+4,189	No	+$398	03-31 07:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	361	$125.2K	278,276	3,500	+274,776	Yes	+$155,495	09-16 17:38
Fed rate hike in 2026?	132	$115.2K	136,224	56,148	+80,077	Yes	-$70,668	08-15 06:57
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	21	$73.4K	24,476	51,219	-26,743	No	+$13	02-11 13:47
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	128	$70.0K	55,150	54,150	+1,000	Yes	+$298	04-03 20:11
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	5	$51.1K	22,205	29,000	-6,795	No	+$15	01-04 23:30
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	152	$50.5K	27,541	45,534	-17,992	open	—	10-27 15:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	142	$49.7K	25,159	30,942	-5,783	Yes	+$4,297	05-06 13:02
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	134	$43.8K	46,413	39,125	+7,288	Yes	-$29,297	05-11 10:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	56	$39.6K	45,000	45,000	+0	open	—	07-23 11:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	60	$31.4K	64,068	57,789	+6,278	No	+$8,747	06-01 13:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	22	$28.5K	30,380	0	+30,380	No	+$1,892	05-30 13:48
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	4	$27.4K	15,587	15,582	+5	Yes	-$3,096	01-03 17:14
nothing ever happens microstrategy	93	$23.9K	18,529	19,882	-1,353	No	-$7,822	02-15 18:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	26	$20.1K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	07-23 11:32
will stephen miran dissent the next fed decision	14	$19.8K	10,006	10,006	+0	Yes	+$163	03-18 18:41
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	24	$19.4K	10,529	11,629	-1,100	No	+$2,185	04-18 12:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 04:12:19	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	66	57¢	$37	0xd3be98…
10-29 01:11:41	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xe358d0…
10-29 01:11:41	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0xe20d57…
10-28 23:03:47	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	395	57¢	$225	0xbc22e1…
10-27 15:40:03	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	22	70¢	$15	0xb6b31c…
10-27 15:39:59	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xfa91da…
10-27 15:39:59	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x903627…
10-27 15:39:59	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x270b71…
10-27 15:19:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,266	94¢	$2,137	0x7a3952…
10-27 15:16:44	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0x56e356…
10-27 15:15:42	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	171	60¢	$103	0xc95d77…
10-27 15:14:33	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,781	80¢	$2,215	0xbaa5ed…
10-27 15:13:26	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xab542d…
10-27 15:13:08	Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x5f306f…
10-27 15:12:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	4¢	$10	0x6b028f…
10-27 14:58:20	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe3b22d…
10-22 15:08:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,681	93¢	$3,423	0xcfa788…
10-22 15:07:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81,114	93¢	$75,436	0x058f5a…
10-22 15:03:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	388	92¢	$357	0xb4dbed…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xeff093…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xd36f3a…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xd07ff3…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xb2f6ab…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x587315…
10-22 15:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x09357d…
10-22 15:03:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xd0217b…
10-22 15:03:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x905002…
10-22 15:03:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x490b11…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xdbd988…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xbfdb10…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xbdc21d…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x8d496b…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x809aa8…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x49db2c…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x41055b…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2b1b0d…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x212edd…
10-22 15:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x1ea054…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xe246d0…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xd9cec8…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xd22da2…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc96bc5…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xb627b5…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xa88395…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x974d9d…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x9077a7…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x4b402c…
10-22 15:02:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x40683d…
10-22 15:02:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x3b0419…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xf5b58b…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xe31e91…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc69acc…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc0d292…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xbcdb18…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x835bf5…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x724474…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x5f25db…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x09f25f…
10-22 15:02:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x016e50…
10-22 15:01:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	77,739	100¢	$77,428	0x97480f…
10-22 15:01:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xa359e8…
10-22 15:01:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x788c40…
10-22 15:01:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x759e84…
10-22 15:01:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x33c1fb…
10-22 15:01:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2cf5b2…
10-22 15:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xf91a54…
10-22 15:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xc6a790…
10-22 15:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x594808…
10-22 15:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2cff72…
10-22 15:01:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x18c7b3…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xcac73a…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xa4c98b…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x8f1ca1…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x80bf26…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x605f19…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x31fb2a…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x226c2d…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x1d8db0…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x1d4f3e…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x0f43cb…
10-22 15:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x015eda…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xced7e7…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xb57310…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xa7f5f1…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x70a6d5…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x678db4…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x46fe3d…
10-22 15:00:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x0a8f9a…
10-19 08:20:29	Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	2,424	100¢	$2,419	0x865a95…
10-17 22:08:54	Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	2,296	100¢	$2,291	0x8044b6…
10-16 20:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,445	86¢	$17,583	0x0d583b…
10-16 20:44:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	86¢	$8,600	0xa81340…
10-16 20:44:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	418	86¢	$359	0x598933…
10-16 20:44:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	388	86¢	$334	0x4ee2e3…
10-16 20:41:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x9ef1ef…
10-16 20:39:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17,144	86¢	$14,744	0xf00ced…
10-16 12:25:04	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xfba215…
10-14 11:29:14	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	0¢	$0	0x7996b4…
10-14 11:28:34	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x4d7457…
10-14 11:27:16	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	641	1¢	$4	0x5837a8…