Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$201
Trades
23
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$1,359
Latest YES mid
23¢
Latest NO mid
77¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 06-07 09:07
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $2 | $2 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $1 | $7 | $5 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9 | $17 | $59 | $42 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $8 | $8 |
| Median | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Below median | 4 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| unranked | 7 | $14 | $59 | $46 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +39 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 05-31 01:37 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +30 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 05-31 01:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | +12 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-31 09:38 |
| Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | +9 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-31 01:37 |
| Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 09:38 |
| Unruly-Real 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-07 09:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 09:07 |
| Guilty-Science 0x6d13…e682 | No | +1 | $1 | $43 | 3 | 05-31 09:39 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 09:07:58 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 2 | 73¢ | $1 | 0x585451… |
| 06-07 09:07:58 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 2 | 73¢ | $1 | 0x585451… |
| 06-07 09:07:10 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 2 | 82¢ | $1 | 0xc688fa… |
| 06-07 09:07:10 | Unruly-Real 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | BUY | 2 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xc688fa… |
| 05-31 09:39:22 | Wry-Meatloaf 0xbb9f…557b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x0a573e… |
| 05-31 09:39:22 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x0a573e… |
| 05-31 09:39:22 | Guilty-Science 0x6d13…e682 | No | SELL | 16 | 68¢ | $11 | 0x0a573e… |
| 05-31 09:38:59 | Creative-Logistics 0x264a…c8b0 | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0x20aa28… |
| 05-31 09:38:59 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x20aa28… |
| 05-31 09:38:59 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x20aa28… |
| 05-31 09:38:59 | Webbed-Machine 0xb528…9f54 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 26¢ | $13 | 0x20aa28… |
| 05-31 09:38:59 | Guilty-Science 0x6d13…e682 | No | SELL | 13 | 74¢ | $10 | 0x20aa28… |
| 05-31 09:38:24 | (anonymous) 0x495a…f3a7 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 28¢ | $14 | 0x55563a… |
| 05-31 09:38:24 | Decent-Deployment 0x643a…522a | No | SELL | 40 | 72¢ | $29 | 0x55563a… |
| 05-31 09:38:24 | Keen-Hate 0xcfaf…b9ea | No | SELL | 10 | 72¢ | $7 | 0x55563a… |
| 05-31 09:37:40 | (anonymous) 0x495a…f3a7 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 27¢ | $8 | 0x241976… |
| 05-31 09:37:40 | (anonymous) 0x495a…f3a7 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x712e46… |
| 05-31 09:37:40 | Guilty-Science 0x6d13…e682 | No | BUY | 30 | 73¢ | $22 | 0x241976… |
| 05-31 09:37:40 | Creative-Logistics 0x264a…c8b0 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0x712e46… |
| 05-31 01:37:40 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 25¢ | $8 | 0x99e70a… |
| 05-31 01:37:40 | Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | BUY | 30 | 75¢ | $23 | 0x99e70a… |
| 05-31 01:37:39 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | BUY | 9 | 75¢ | $7 | 0x67f643… |
| 05-31 01:37:39 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 25¢ | $2 | 0x67f643… |