Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,399
Trades
123
Unique wallets
50
Liquidity
$1,359
Latest YES mid
11¢
Latest NO mid
89¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 08-15 12:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $18 | $113 | $95 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $8 | $28 | $21 |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $9 | $369 | $360 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 23 | $60 | $252 | $192 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $4 | $39 | $35 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $21 | $149 | $128 |
| Median | 6 | $25 | $59 | $34 |
| Below median | 7 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $4 | $100 | $96 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| unranked | 20 | $26 | $415 | $389 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Only-Reunion 0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | +132 | $124 | $124 | 1 | 08-02 02:42 |
| Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | +129 | $113 | $113 | 1 | 06-25 22:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xf51c…f9f3 | Yes | +100 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-21 16:21 |
| Dutiful-Airbus 0x0cd0…0e01 | Yes | +100 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 06-25 22:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xa588…c430 | No | +51 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 08-12 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e64…5686 | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 08-06 11:03 |
| Rotating-Fault 0x405b…755c | No | +49 | $39 | $39 | 1 | 06-19 11:44 |
| Possible-Splendor 0xda39…fef1 | Yes | +46 | $0 | $2 | 3 | 08-14 22:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | +42 | $0 | $1 | 5 | 08-15 09:55 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +39 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 05-31 01:37 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | No | +30 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 05-31 01:37 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +25 | $4 | $9 | 6 | 08-15 12:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +17 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-21 02:44 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | +16 | $13 | $22 | 3 | 08-15 12:10 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +16 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-24 14:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xa654…ec03 | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 08-12 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 07-24 14:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +10 | $4 | $4 | 4 | 08-12 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +9 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-19 12:46 |
| Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 08-01 09:52 |
| Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | +2 | $2 | $23 | 4 | 06-23 01:30 |
| Unruly-Real 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-07 09:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 09:07 |
| Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | +1 | $2 | $7 | 2 | 07-08 22:10 |
| Guilty-Science 0x6d13…e682 | No | +1 | $1 | $43 | 3 | 05-31 09:39 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 12:10:25 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x25d831… |
| 08-15 12:10:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x25d831… |
| 08-15 09:55:19 | (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x898c8e… |
| 08-15 09:55:19 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x898c8e… |
| 08-14 22:27:42 | Possible-Splendor 0xda39…fef1 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x16e6fd… |
| 08-14 22:27:42 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x16e6fd… |
| 08-14 20:39:39 | Possible-Splendor 0xda39…fef1 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf1f7b4… |
| 08-14 20:39:39 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf1f7b4… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | Possible-Splendor 0xda39…fef1 | Yes | BUY | 78 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | (anonymous) 0xa588…c430 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $51 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-12 08:22:16 | (anonymous) 0xa654…ec03 | No | BUY | 8 | 94¢ | $8 | 0xd54ce9… |
| 08-07 15:19:57 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1880d1… |
| 08-07 15:19:57 | (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1880d1… |
| 08-06 11:03:41 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | SELL | 67 | 99¢ | $67 | 0xd84d4f… |
| 08-06 11:03:41 | (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd84d4f… |
| 08-06 11:03:41 | (anonymous) 0x6e64…5686 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xd84d4f… |
| 08-05 16:13:36 | Candid-Nut 0xcb3b…a2b6 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbc88cf… |
| 08-05 16:13:36 | (anonymous) 0xcba1…b4e2 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbc88cf… |
| 08-05 08:45:47 | Candid-Nut 0xcb3b…a2b6 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xadae64… |
| 08-05 08:45:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xadae64… |
| 08-05 08:45:47 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xadae64… |
| 08-04 18:17:32 | (anonymous) 0xa654…ec03 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x97cd75… |
| 08-04 18:17:32 | Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x97cd75… |
| 08-04 18:15:09 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x89c699… |
| 08-04 18:15:09 | Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x89c699… |
| 08-02 02:42:20 | Only-Reunion 0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | BUY | 132 | 94¢ | $124 | 0xb9fa4d… |
| 08-02 02:42:20 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xb9fa4d… |
| 08-02 02:42:20 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xb9fa4d… |
| 08-02 02:42:20 | Failing-Tractor 0xa0c9…a1fc | No | SELL | 123 | 94¢ | $116 | 0xb9fa4d… |
| 08-01 09:52:29 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xbc8868… |
| 08-01 09:52:29 | Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0xbc8868… |
| 08-01 09:52:23 | Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x5d61ea… |
| 08-01 09:52:23 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x5d61ea… |
| 07-30 00:32:18 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 23 | 92¢ | $21 | 0x348dfa… |
| 07-30 00:32:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x348dfa… |
| 07-24 14:29:55 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x8321f7… |
| 07-24 14:29:55 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 16 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x8321f7… |
| 07-24 14:29:55 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x8321f7… |
| 07-24 10:09:34 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xff515e… |
| 07-24 10:09:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 12 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xff515e… |
| 07-13 19:42:25 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0xacb78c… |
| 07-13 19:42:25 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xacb78c… |
| 07-13 19:42:25 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0xacb78c… |
| 07-13 19:42:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 14 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xacb78c… |
| 07-12 11:26:05 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xc5bc38… |
| 07-12 11:26:05 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xc5bc38… |
| 07-12 11:22:22 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x14c7c4… |
| 07-12 11:22:22 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x14c7c4… |
| 07-12 11:19:13 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x1158ba… |
| 07-12 11:19:13 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x1158ba… |
| 07-10 14:10:59 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 12 | 92¢ | $11 | 0xdaa373… |
| 07-10 14:10:59 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 12 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xdaa373… |
| 07-08 22:10:55 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | SELL | 42 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x14329b… |
| 07-08 22:10:55 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 42 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x14329b… |
| 07-04 22:03:47 | (anonymous) 0xbecc…f560 | No | SELL | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0xfac4cd… |
| 07-04 22:03:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xfac4cd… |
| 07-04 17:17:08 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | Yes | SELL | 22 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x45b80d… |
| 07-04 17:17:08 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 22 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x45b80d… |
| 06-28 21:05:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xbd1b64… |
| 06-28 21:05:53 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | BUY | 43 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xbd1b64… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | Dutiful-Airbus 0x0cd0…0e01 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | BUY | 129 | 88¢ | $113 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | (anonymous) 0x16b4…168f | No | SELL | 0 | 85¢ | $0 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 22:12:41 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x3c82c9… |
| 06-25 01:47:58 | (anonymous) 0x16b4…168f | No | SELL | 14 | 85¢ | $12 | 0x51695a… |
| 06-25 01:47:58 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 14 | 85¢ | $12 | 0x51695a… |
| 06-24 13:54:10 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 8 | 85¢ | $7 | 0x8c0619… |
| 06-24 13:54:10 | (anonymous) 0x16b4…168f | No | SELL | 8 | 85¢ | $7 | 0x8c0619… |
| 06-24 13:54:01 | (anonymous) 0x16b4…168f | No | SELL | 13 | 85¢ | $11 | 0x0e292f… |
| 06-24 13:54:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 13 | 85¢ | $11 | 0x0e292f… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x9929fa… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x9929fa… |
| 06-22 22:11:37 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 25 | 84¢ | $21 | 0x91a530… |
| 06-22 22:11:37 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x91a530… |
| 06-21 16:21:07 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x937552… |
| 06-21 16:21:07 | (anonymous) 0xf51c…f9f3 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 19¢ | $19 | 0x937552… |
| 06-21 16:21:07 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 11 | 81¢ | $9 | 0x937552… |
| 06-21 16:21:07 | (anonymous) 0x16b4…168f | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x937552… |
| 06-21 16:21:07 | Failing-Tractor 0xa0c9…a1fc | No | BUY | 123 | 81¢ | $100 | 0x937552… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | BUY | 7 | 80¢ | $6 | 0x45ea5c… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x45ea5c… |
| 06-19 12:46:37 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | BUY | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xbe16b2… |
| 06-19 12:46:37 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xbe16b2… |
| 06-19 12:46:35 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xdf384b… |
| 06-19 12:46:35 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 55 | 81¢ | $45 | 0xdf384b… |
| 06-19 12:46:35 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | BUY | 124 | 80¢ | $100 | 0xdf384b… |
| 06-19 11:46:37 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xfce87f… |
| 06-19 11:46:37 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xfce87f… |
| 06-19 11:44:50 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0xfd0034… |
| 06-19 11:44:50 | Rotating-Fault 0x405b…755c | No | BUY | 49 | 79¢ | $39 | 0xfd0034… |
| 06-19 11:44:50 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 21¢ | $6 | 0xfd0034… |
| 06-19 11:44:50 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 21¢ | $2 | 0xfd0034… |
| 06-17 14:37:26 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | SELL | 9 | 72¢ | $6 | 0xf8c90b… |
| 06-17 14:37:26 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 8 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xf8c90b… |
| 06-17 14:37:26 | Wry-Meatloaf 0xbb9f…557b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xf8c90b… |