Realized P&L
+$535
Unrealized P&L
+$1.55K
Hit rate
67.5%
Resolved
596
Trades
393,373
lifetime
Volume
$3.02M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$7.44K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 12:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
49% 28% $-65
Politics
35% 35% +$382
Crypto
9% 48% +$279
Tech
4% 0% $-51
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
1% 0% $-10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 2395 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +778 $296 82¢ $638 +$342 06-26 09:19
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +445 $215 100¢ $445 +$230 06-20 18:01
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? No +649 $325 62¢ $406 +$81 07-20 01:46
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Yes +395 $207 78¢ $306 +$99 07-09 14:10
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +310 $177 98¢ $303 +$126 07-13 09:30
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +345 $256 83¢ $286 +$30 07-14 09:04
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No +313 $264 90¢ $283 +$19 07-17 08:36
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes +309 $228 86¢ $268 +$40 07-15 06:08
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +283 $182 92¢ $260 +$79 06-28 10:57
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +364 $230 64¢ $233 +$3 07-19 17:20
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? No +255 $199 88¢ $224 +$26 06-28 20:48
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +227 $132 98¢ $223 +$91 07-12 12:47
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +273 $200 80¢ $220 +$19 06-17 12:50
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Yes +231 $144 93¢ $215 +$71 07-06 12:06
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +250 $165 86¢ $214 +$48 06-16 03:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No +274 $125 78¢ $213 +$88 07-13 09:29
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +294 $212 72¢ $212 +$0 06-27 22:54
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes +337 $201 62¢ $209 +$9 07-08 22:19
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes +396 $242 52¢ $207 $-35 07-20 12:04
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? No +227 $198 90¢ $204 +$6 07-01 08:16
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +536 $229 38¢ $201 $-28 07-19 02:38
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +216 $181 90¢ $195 +$14 07-12 01:07
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No +251 $170 78¢ $195 +$25 07-08 08:39
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No +241 $135 80¢ $193 +$58 07-06 00:49
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No +308 $136 61¢ $188 +$52 07-13 21:51
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? No +207 $117 90¢ $187 +$71 06-22 08:47
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No +296 $196 63¢ $187 $-9 06-30 09:19
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? No +355 $165 50¢ $179 +$14 06-17 04:23
Yo FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +237 $210 74¢ $176 $-35 07-14 02:48
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? No +278 $159 62¢ $174 +$15 07-02 18:17