Realized P&L
+$500
Unrealized P&L
+$2.85K
Hit rate
67.4%
Resolved
592
Trades
383,103
lifetime
Volume
$2.90M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$8.90K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
49% 28% $-65
Politics
36% 35% +$382
Crypto
9% 46% +$244
Tech
4% 0% $-51
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
1% 0% $-10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 6393 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +803 $372 99¢ $795 +$422 06-29 20:15
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No +605 $344 100¢ $603 +$259 06-30 03:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +778 $296 72¢ $556 +$261 06-26 09:19
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No +553 $335 100¢ $551 +$216 06-19 23:20
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +445 $215 100¢ $445 +$230 06-20 18:01
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +310 $173 100¢ $309 +$136 06-10 22:35
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +307 $173 99¢ $305 +$131 06-11 01:00
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +292 $188 99¢ $288 +$100 06-02 05:14
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No +279 $173 99¢ $277 +$104 06-27 00:15
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No +278 $178 98¢ $274 +$96 06-22 09:52
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No +270 $164 100¢ $268 +$104 06-28 10:06
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +268 $84 96¢ $258 +$174 06-30 10:03
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes +300 $236 84¢ $252 +$16 06-05 20:14
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No +249 $178 100¢ $249 +$71 06-28 17:01
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No +243 $161 100¢ $242 +$81 06-22 08:37
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +283 $182 86¢ $242 +$60 06-28 10:57
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No +237 $184 99¢ $236 +$52 06-18 09:57
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +250 $165 90¢ $226 +$61 06-16 03:32
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +273 $200 82¢ $222 +$22 06-17 12:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +773 $389 29¢ $220 $-169 06-19 21:03
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes +370 $203 60¢ $220 +$17 06-23 16:33
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No +264 $113 82¢ $216 +$103 06-29 05:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +216 $123 100¢ $215 +$92 06-26 06:02
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No +296 $196 72¢ $213 +$18 06-30 09:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +210 $116 100¢ $209 +$94 06-19 16:25
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Yes +310 $157 68¢ $209 +$53 06-30 08:38
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +294 $212 70¢ $207 $-4 06-27 22:54
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No -200 $-200 100¢ $-200 +$0 06-26 23:18
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +218 $174 90¢ $196 +$23 06-10 22:54
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes +195 $167 98¢ $191 +$25 06-22 17:51