Realized P&L
-$15.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$23.0K
Hit rate
57.2%
Resolved
70,863
Trades
1,000,416
lifetime
Volume
$10.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$156.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 09:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
52% 27% -$30,064
Politics
35% 31% +$11,754
Crypto
6% 31% +$4,687
Tech
4% 30% +$1,848
Sports
2% 26% -$1,478
Pop-Culture
1% 21% -$1,941
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 14391 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +15,012 $7,659 72¢ $10.8K +$3,104 10-28 02:05
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +10,910 $4,010 97¢ $10.5K +$6,523 10-25 19:29
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +10,367 $8,684 76¢ $7.9K -$763 10-27 09:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 No +10,894 $5,055 65¢ $7.1K +$1,999 10-26 21:01
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 No +6,993 $4,932 98¢ $6.9K +$1,921 10-21 23:41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +6,851 $5,504 97¢ $6.6K +$1,141 10-21 21:47
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +6,935 $4,233 96¢ $6.6K +$2,394 10-27 11:06
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +6,800 $5,031 84¢ $5.7K +$714 10-23 19:57
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +8,608 $6,207 67¢ $5.7K -$465 10-28 00:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +6,947 $5,206 76¢ $5.3K +$50 10-28 08:20
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +6,193 $4,549 83¢ $5.1K +$591 10-26 06:13
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +5,338 $4,689 96¢ $5.1K +$438 10-28 04:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +4,960 $3,331 96¢ $4.7K +$1,406 10-25 21:51
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +5,743 $4,209 82¢ $4.7K +$501 10-28 08:32
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +6,134 $3,960 75¢ $4.6K +$640 10-28 11:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +4,508 $3,087 95¢ $4.3K +$1,196 10-21 12:51
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +4,904 $4,211 86¢ $4.2K +$18 10-25 23:09
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +4,140 $3,119 100¢ $4.1K +$1,017 10-27 19:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +4,203 $3,236 98¢ $4.1K +$862 10-20 21:14
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +5,148 $3,653 79¢ $4.1K +$399 10-25 21:51
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +4,603 $3,838 87¢ $4.0K +$176 10-27 22:37
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +13,982 $6,836 28¢ $4.0K -$2,880 10-27 21:17
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,001 $3,433 96¢ $3.8K +$408 10-28 03:19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +3,960 $2,731 97¢ $3.8K +$1,103 10-27 09:53
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5,256 $4,267 72¢ $3.8K -$475 10-27 06:15
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +4,660 $3,574 81¢ $3.8K +$200 10-27 11:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,679 $5,732 35¢ $3.8K -$1,968 10-27 23:51
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes +4,586 $3,387 82¢ $3.8K +$374 10-25 06:26
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +4,339 $3,805 86¢ $3.8K -$52 10-27 11:08
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026 No +3,967 $1,209 92¢ $3.7K +$2,451 10-26 19:17