Realized P&L
-$15.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$23.3K
Hit rate
57.2%
Resolved
70,837
Trades
998,535
lifetime
Volume
$10.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$155.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 07:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
52% 27% -$29,900
Politics
35% 31% +$11,776
Crypto
6% 31% +$4,687
Tech
4% 30% +$1,848
Sports
2% 26% -$1,495
Pop-Culture
1% 21% -$1,941
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 14391 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +15,012 $7,659 74¢ $11.0K +$3,382 10-28 02:05
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +10,910 $4,010 98¢ $10.7K +$6,676 10-25 19:29
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +10,367 $8,684 78¢ $8.1K -$577 10-27 09:53
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 No +10,894 $5,055 65¢ $7.1K +$2,020 10-26 21:01
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 No +6,993 $4,932 98¢ $6.8K +$1,887 10-21 23:41
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +6,935 $4,233 96¢ $6.6K +$2,404 10-27 11:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +6,851 $5,504 96¢ $6.5K +$1,038 10-21 21:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +6,800 $5,031 84¢ $5.7K +$714 10-23 19:57
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +8,608 $6,207 66¢ $5.7K -$487 10-28 00:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +6,943 $5,203 75¢ $5.2K +$36 10-28 03:46
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +6,193 $4,549 84¢ $5.2K +$622 10-26 06:13
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +5,338 $4,689 93¢ $5.0K +$268 10-28 04:31
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +4,960 $3,331 94¢ $4.7K +$1,356 10-25 21:51
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +5,593 $4,087 82¢ $4.6K +$499 10-27 20:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +4,508 $3,087 95¢ $4.3K +$1,196 10-21 12:51
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +4,904 $4,211 85¢ $4.2K -$38 10-25 23:09
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +4,140 $3,119 100¢ $4.1K +$1,015 10-27 19:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +4,203 $3,236 98¢ $4.1K +$862 10-20 21:14
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +4,603 $3,838 89¢ $4.1K +$240 10-27 22:37
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +5,148 $3,653 79¢ $4.1K +$415 10-25 21:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +3,960 $2,731 97¢ $3.8K +$1,106 10-27 09:53
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,001 $3,433 96¢ $3.8K +$388 10-28 03:19
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +4,660 $3,574 81¢ $3.8K +$200 10-27 11:57
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +4,339 $3,805 86¢ $3.8K -$52 10-27 11:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,679 $5,732 35¢ $3.7K -$1,989 10-27 23:51
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes +4,586 $3,387 82¢ $3.7K +$351 10-25 06:26
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5,256 $4,267 71¢ $3.7K -$540 10-27 06:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +4,050 $2,732 92¢ $3.7K +$994 10-27 13:58
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +13,982 $6,836 26¢ $3.7K -$3,138 10-27 21:17
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 31 2026 No +3,967 $1,209 93¢ $3.7K +$2,463 10-26 19:17