Realized P&L (30d)
-$64.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$33.7K
Hit rate
57.3%
Resolved (30d)
16,288
Trades (30d)
284,423
1,156,644 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$4.79M
$13.2M lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$207.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 14:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 318 days
Categories
Other
53% 30% -$63,274
Politics
34% 31% +$920
Crypto
6% 35% +$1,393
Tech
4% 29% +$341
Sports
2% 29% -$746
Pop-Culture
1% 21% -$1,762
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 16851 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,834 $9,398 96¢ $11.4K +$1,991 11-13 18:17
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +10,878 $9,518 100¢ $10.9K +$1,343 11-12 17:14
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +10,910 $4,010 98¢ $10.7K +$6,692 10-25 19:29
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +16,453 $7,801 64¢ $10.5K +$2,680 11-13 14:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +12,976 $6,294 78¢ $10.2K +$3,873 11-12 15:34
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +9,006 $7,030 97¢ $8.8K +$1,728 11-11 04:37
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +8,909 $6,835 90¢ $8.0K +$1,139 11-10 23:31
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +9,178 $6,391 82¢ $7.6K +$1,181 11-14 07:51
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? No +7,107 $6,724 100¢ $7.1K +$372 11-05 19:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +6,993 $6,974 100¢ $7.0K +$2 11-13 18:15
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +10,618 $7,552 65¢ $6.9K -$645 11-13 10:52
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +6,853 $5,135 97¢ $6.7K +$1,533 11-04 02:55
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +18,035 $9,415 36¢ $6.5K -$2,868 11-12 13:39
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +13,470 $10,346 48¢ $6.5K -$3,813 11-12 11:32
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +12,291 $2,724 52¢ $6.3K +$3,606 11-13 18:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +7,616 $6,044 82¢ $6.3K +$216 11-11 08:19
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +6,379 $4,710 96¢ $6.2K +$1,442 11-08 00:55
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +6,704 $5,150 91¢ $6.1K +$927 11-11 01:16
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +6,894 $5,857 88¢ $6.1K +$200 11-12 21:45
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +11,329 $6,266 53¢ $6.0K -$301 11-13 18:21
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +5,866 $4,076 98¢ $5.8K +$1,688 11-12 20:06
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +6,098 $4,467 91¢ $5.6K +$1,088 11-13 18:17
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +5,675 $841 94¢ $5.3K +$4,467 11-07 12:00
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +10,964 $4,986 47¢ $5.2K +$205 11-13 15:14
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +5,786 $1,546 90¢ $5.2K +$3,641 11-11 12:07
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +5,490 $4,292 94¢ $5.2K +$866 11-13 04:40
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,190 $4,147 99¢ $5.1K +$968 11-13 09:04
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +7,558 $5,497 66¢ $5.0K -$546 11-09 22:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +5,273 $4,525 94¢ $4.9K +$424 11-03 22:26
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No +6,567 $5,334 75¢ $4.9K -$399 11-13 06:46