Indolent-Ceiling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

170

lifetime

Volume

$2.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$84

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-27 12:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

56% 100% +$13

Politics

42% 100% +$38

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	+16	$15	97¢	$16	+$1	06-27 12:45
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+13	$10	86¢	$11	+$1	06-16 22:03
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	+12	$10	94¢	$11	+$1	06-02 21:17
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	+11	$10	94¢	$10	+$0	06-27 12:50
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+7	$6	88¢	$6	+$0	06-10 22:32
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+6	$5	92¢	$5	+$0	06-27 12:45
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	+6	$5	85¢	$5	+$0	05-30 21:14
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	05-30 21:09
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	+7	$5	77¢	$5	+$0	05-30 21:14
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+6	$5	74¢	$4	$-1	06-02 21:15
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	No	+3	$2	83¢	$2	+$0	06-27 12:52
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+5	$4	25¢	$1	$-3	05-30 21:18
Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	06-27 12:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$145	76	76	+0	open	—	03-05 22:54
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	3	$144	74	74	+0	open	—	02-04 22:48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	4	$95	168	0	+168	open	—	01-17 11:39
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	1	$71	0	71	-71	open	—	06-10 22:25
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	01-13 22:21
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	03-17 22:05
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	3	$60	75	0	+75	open	—	04-19 21:00
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	3	$52	27	27	+0	open	—	06-27 12:43
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$51	54	0	+54	open	—	03-05 23:38
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$51	57	0	+57	open	—	04-04 18:21
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	03-01 23:36
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$50	70	0	+70	open	—	03-05 23:17
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	2	$46	26	26	+0	open	—	03-05 23:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$45	55	0	+55	open	—	04-19 21:10
will tsla reach 525 in january	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	01-27 20:35
will tsla dip to 338 in january	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	01-27 20:29
will tsla reach 548 in january	2	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	01-20 21:10
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	02-04 22:37
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$40	53	0	+53	open	—	04-01 21:35
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	04-01 21:27
military action against iran ends by march 28 2026	2	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	03-17 22:04
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	04-01 21:38
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$36	27	27	+0	open	—	01-17 11:35
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$32	41	0	+41	open	—	03-17 22:11
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	1	$32	0	32	-32	open	—	06-02 21:20
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$31	38	0	+38	open	—	01-24 12:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$30	68	0	+68	Yes	+$38	01-04 16:36
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	1	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	04-08 21:24
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	1	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	03-10 23:30
military action against iran ends by march 25 2026	1	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	03-17 22:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 12:52:26	SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xd79c98…
06-27 12:51:29	Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfcf87f…
06-27 12:50:44	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x4d1a9f…
06-27 12:47:08	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb2ca3b…
06-27 12:45:50	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x674ba0…
06-27 12:45:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xd4556c…
06-27 12:44:55	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xec9509…
06-27 12:43:28	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x438715…
06-27 12:43:19	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xc809d2…
06-16 22:09:08	will googl dip to 330 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x95c7e7…
06-16 22:08:35	will tsla reach 495 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe83e40…
06-16 22:08:31	will tsla reach 465 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x3b6317…
06-16 22:07:14	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xaea01d…
06-16 22:06:59	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xefdb79…
06-16 22:06:10	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xdefeb7…
06-16 22:05:29	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$21	0x652504…
06-16 22:05:23	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x7ec2c0…
06-16 22:05:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xab595d…
06-16 22:04:43	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xa3b8ab…
06-16 22:03:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x89953e…
06-16 22:00:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x0e9742…
06-10 22:32:48	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xd5415a…
06-10 22:30:03	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x874da0…
06-10 22:28:57	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xa4a775…
06-10 22:25:42	Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	71	99¢	$71	0x23c61a…
06-02 21:22:12	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xee0894…
06-02 21:21:54	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xa3ee8a…
06-02 21:21:28	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 in June?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x83472e…
06-02 21:21:12	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xacd6fc…
06-02 21:20:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xd79668…
06-02 21:20:14	Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xc23e8e…
06-02 21:18:43	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0xc69863…
06-02 21:18:26	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x64378e…
06-02 21:17:28	Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3e33d9…
06-02 21:16:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xd7bc8b…
06-02 21:15:05	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3f86be…
06-02 21:14:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x702fef…
05-30 21:18:47	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x556747…
05-30 21:14:55	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x191d69…
05-30 21:14:20	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x52dd6e…
05-30 21:09:50	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe43626…
05-30 21:06:38	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe88a44…
05-30 21:06:27	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x26bcfe…
05-30 21:06:15	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x24840b…
05-30 21:04:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x11b496…
05-18 21:57:19	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $440 in May?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x615208…
05-18 21:56:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x82d014…
05-18 21:55:35	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfaddf2…
05-18 21:51:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x4922c0…
05-04 20:42:54	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xcf3760…
05-04 20:42:32	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in May?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xf97b5e…
05-04 20:38:30	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xeda91b…
05-04 20:37:48	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x83e839…
04-19 21:10:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x824bd7…
04-19 21:09:54	Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xa6fd14…
04-19 21:07:12	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x67e317…
04-19 21:00:30	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x62dc30…
04-08 21:31:09	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xcc5405…
04-08 21:24:07	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x037b57…
04-04 18:54:39	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x185830…
04-04 18:21:45	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x70c030…
04-01 21:38:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xbb83dc…
04-01 21:38:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x621fc5…
04-01 21:35:55	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x077ad9…
04-01 21:27:37	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x05b201…
04-01 21:27:31	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x69a031…
03-29 23:03:18	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$21	0x00cda4…
03-29 23:02:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x6cc843…
03-29 22:59:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xc75dcc…
03-25 23:32:19	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x7a1d13…
03-25 23:32:03	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x68c9f0…
03-17 22:11:29	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	16	78¢	$12	0xcd0589…
03-17 22:07:25	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x5a9613…
03-17 22:05:03	will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xdeb2e7…
03-17 22:04:23	military action against iran ends by march 28 2026	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x820338…
03-17 22:04:09	military action against iran ends by march 28 2026	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x636c38…
03-17 22:03:51	military action against iran ends by march 27 2026	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xe5b00e…
03-17 22:03:23	military action against iran ends by march 25 2026	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xff6bd0…
03-10 23:30:15	will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xe0f392…
03-05 23:38:53	us forces enter iran by march 7	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x43345c…
03-05 23:38:33	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xdd7ab4…
03-05 23:36:45	us forces enter iran by march 7	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x085157…
03-05 23:17:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xc62afa…
03-05 22:54:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x153238…
03-02 23:02:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x03cd1b…
03-02 22:56:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x69c2b0…
03-01 23:46:49	will france strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	19	82¢	$16	0xf21030…
03-01 23:43:57	will france strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x694513…
03-01 23:43:01	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xf7dc8a…
03-01 23:39:33	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	No	BUY	76	92¢	$70	0xcfa88d…
03-01 23:38:01	will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x4774a6…
03-01 23:36:43	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x1efbd0…
02-23 22:38:10	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x1ca8fc…
02-04 22:49:03	will israel strike 4 countries in february 2026	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x7fa7cb…
02-04 22:48:25	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	SELL	74	97¢	$72	0xdc8f64…
02-04 22:48:03	will israel strike 4 countries in february 2026	No	BUY	4	94¢	$3	0x709159…
02-04 22:39:31	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xbb1a30…
02-04 22:37:27	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x4ca918…
02-04 22:36:25	russia x ukraine prisoner exchange by february 14 2026	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x250dbf…
01-27 20:35:59	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x5dc749…