Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$3,338
$9 in 24h
Trades
182
Unique wallets
57
Liquidity
$3,388
Latest YES mid
11¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-14 09:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+2.9¢
(top1%: 16% YES on $103
vs crowd: 13% YES on $2.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $23 | $158 | $135 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $30 | $494 | $464 |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $35 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $208 | $38 | +$169 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $16 | $87 | $71 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $17 | $17 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $19 | $27 | $8 |
| Median | 8 | $42 | $278 | $237 |
| Below median | 8 | $20 | $102 | $83 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $140 | $140 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $22 | — | +$22 |
| unranked | 24 | $161 | $1.4K | $1.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +1,329 | $1,175 | $1,175 | 11 | 07-14 09:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x6fcd…99eb | Yes | +615 | $61 | $61 | 1 | 07-10 01:29 |
| Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | +312 | $274 | $274 | 1 | 06-30 11:32 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | +265 | $29 | $29 | 15 | 07-02 14:59 |
| Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | +216 | $16 | $16 | 4 | 07-03 10:17 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +160 | $20 | $23 | 2 | 07-08 12:01 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +135 | $16 | $16 | 6 | 07-08 12:01 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +129 | $114 | $114 | 1 | 06-05 07:18 |
| Avaricious-Kale 0x004f…9612 | Yes | +119 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-11 20:56 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | +116 | $101 | $101 | 8 | 07-03 00:34 |
| Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | +115 | $14 | $14 | 3 | 06-30 11:32 |
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +104 | $87 | $87 | 5 | 06-07 00:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x5603…7a24 | Yes | +100 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-11 07:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x367e…b15e | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-02 14:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | +91 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-14 09:12 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | +67 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-28 06:35 |
| Adept-Whack-Engine 0x5a55…7d2e | Yes | +48 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 07:10 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +45 | $40 | $165 | 26 | 07-06 12:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | +33 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-25 04:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 6 | 07-02 14:59 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 07-10 01:29 |
| Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | +30 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 06-04 05:53 |
| Serpentine-Illusion 0xc412…592d | Yes | +22 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-02 00:50 |
| 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 06-25 12:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 07-02 22:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xb3af…84fc | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-03 05:12 |
| Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 04:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +5 | $-1 | $17 | 3 | 07-14 09:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b5a…5651 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 07:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-12 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-08 12:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-12 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-09 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-02 22:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-12 21:04 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 09:12:47 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 21 | 90¢ | $19 | 0x47359e… |
| 07-14 09:12:47 | (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | BUY | 91 | 10¢ | $9 | 0x47359e… |
| 07-14 09:12:47 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 70 | 10¢ | $7 | 0x47359e… |
| 07-12 21:04:56 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x033460… |
| 07-12 21:04:56 | Deadheadbucky 0x68d9…00ed | No | SELL | 314 | 90¢ | $283 | 0x033460… |
| 07-12 21:04:56 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x033460… |
| 07-12 21:04:56 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 299 | 90¢ | $269 | 0x033460… |
| 07-12 21:04:56 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x033460… |
| 07-11 07:49:49 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0x422803… |
| 07-11 07:49:49 | (anonymous) 0x5603…7a24 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x422803… |
| 07-10 01:29:29 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x6b611c… |
| 07-10 01:29:29 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 580 | 90¢ | $522 | 0x6b611c… |
| 07-10 01:29:29 | (anonymous) 0x6fcd…99eb | Yes | BUY | 615 | 10¢ | $61 | 0x6b611c… |
| 07-10 01:29:29 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x6b611c… |
| 07-09 09:48:52 | Rotating-Fault 0x405b…755c | No | SELL | 125 | 91¢ | $114 | 0x726c1e… |
| 07-09 09:48:52 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 9¢ | $9 | 0x726c1e… |
| 07-09 09:48:52 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x726c1e… |
| 07-09 09:48:52 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x726c1e… |
| 07-08 12:01:50 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x065819… |
| 07-08 12:01:50 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x065819… |
| 07-08 12:01:50 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x065819… |
| 07-07 00:10:04 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 9¢ | $9 | 0x5b7529… |
| 07-07 00:10:04 | Academic-Drop 0x8105…e9f3 | No | SELL | 100 | 91¢ | $91 | 0x5b7529… |
| 07-06 12:31:55 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 120 | 8¢ | $10 | 0x954494… |
| 07-06 12:31:55 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x954494… |
| 07-06 12:31:55 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 8¢ | $8 | 0x954494… |
| 07-03 10:17:16 | Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x923b4b… |
| 07-03 10:17:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x923b4b… |
| 07-03 09:17:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xf93545… |
| 07-03 09:17:58 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xf93545… |
| 07-03 09:17:34 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x31296e… |
| 07-03 09:17:34 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x31296e… |
| 07-03 09:17:31 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x080968… |
| 07-03 09:17:31 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x080968… |
| 07-03 09:17:26 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x89aee9… |
| 07-03 09:17:26 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x89aee9… |
| 07-03 09:17:26 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x89aee9… |
| 07-03 05:12:43 | (anonymous) 0xb3af…84fc | No | BUY | 10 | 90¢ | $9 | 0x318a59… |
| 07-03 05:12:43 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x318a59… |
| 07-03 00:34:29 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 15 | 90¢ | $14 | 0x507017… |
| 07-03 00:34:29 | Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | BUY | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x507017… |
| 07-03 00:34:29 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x507017… |
| 07-02 23:24:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 7¢ | $6 | 0x3a6ef3… |
| 07-02 23:24:44 | Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | BUY | 101 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x3a6ef3… |
| 07-02 23:24:44 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 15 | 93¢ | $14 | 0x3a6ef3… |
| 07-02 22:59:10 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x59d014… |
| 07-02 22:59:10 | Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | BUY | 35 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x59d014… |
| 07-02 22:59:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0x59d014… |
| 07-02 22:59:10 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x59d014… |
| 07-02 17:08:43 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbe3cd1… |
| 07-02 17:08:43 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0xbe3cd1… |
| 07-02 17:08:43 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0xbe3cd1… |
| 07-02 17:08:43 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xbe3cd1… |
| 07-02 14:59:26 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | Yes | SELL | 565 | 3¢ | $19 | 0xde7100… |
| 07-02 14:59:26 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xde7100… |
| 07-02 14:59:26 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xde7100… |
| 07-02 14:59:26 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 395 | 3¢ | $12 | 0xde7100… |
| 07-02 14:59:26 | (anonymous) 0x367e…b15e | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xde7100… |
| 07-02 00:50:28 | Serpentine-Illusion 0xc412…592d | Yes | BUY | 22 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x08c460… |
| 07-02 00:50:28 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x08c460… |
| 07-02 00:50:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x08c460… |
| 07-02 00:50:28 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | SELL | 117 | 9¢ | $11 | 0x08c460… |
| 07-02 00:50:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x08c460… |
| 06-30 11:32:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x06a92a… |
| 06-30 11:32:10 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 180 | 12¢ | $22 | 0x06a92a… |
| 06-30 11:32:10 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x06a92a… |
| 06-30 11:32:10 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 12¢ | $7 | 0x06a92a… |
| 06-30 11:32:10 | Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | BUY | 312 | 88¢ | $274 | 0x06a92a… |
| 06-29 22:42:10 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 4 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x29bb79… |
| 06-29 22:42:10 | (anonymous) 0x56a4…5bbc | No | SELL | 4 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x29bb79… |
| 06-29 21:11:05 | Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x29e82c… |
| 06-29 21:11:05 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 9 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x29e82c… |
| 06-25 12:45:38 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0xe8f27e… |
| 06-25 12:45:38 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xe8f27e… |
| 06-25 04:59:28 | (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x6c0916… |
| 06-25 04:59:28 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0x6c0916… |
| 06-24 13:31:32 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x2b3090… |
| 06-24 13:31:32 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 27 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x2b3090… |
| 06-24 13:31:32 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 14 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x2b3090… |
| 06-24 13:05:34 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 4 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x6c79b9… |
| 06-24 13:05:34 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x6c79b9… |
| 06-24 13:05:34 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x6c79b9… |
| 06-23 22:35:10 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xa10bf1… |
| 06-23 22:35:10 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 16 | 85¢ | $14 | 0xa10bf1… |
| 06-23 10:56:25 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xc3b968… |
| 06-23 10:56:25 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xc3b968… |
| 06-23 10:16:50 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x3ccc98… |
| 06-23 10:16:50 | (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x3ccc98… |
| 06-23 08:03:38 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x0464cc… |
| 06-23 08:03:38 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x0464cc… |
| 06-23 03:53:11 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x462b40… |
| 06-23 03:53:11 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x462b40… |
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-21 05:31:41 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xb771ee… |
| 06-21 05:31:41 | Gummy-Casserole 0x9be5…985e | No | SELL | 3 | 86¢ | $2 | 0xb771ee… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xefd2bf… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 16 | 87¢ | $14 | 0xefd2bf… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0xefd2bf… |