Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$12,681
$9 in 24h
Trades
361
Unique wallets
89
Liquidity
$3,388
Latest YES mid
13¢
Latest NO mid
87¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-05 02:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.9¢
(top1%: 16% YES on $103
vs crowd: 18% YES on $18.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $60 | $553 | $493 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $1.8K | $694 | +$1.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 25 | $919 | $13.5K | $12.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 43 | $410 | $56 | +$354 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $16 | $87 | $71 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $26 | $69 | $43 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $1.8K | $79 | +$1.7K |
| Median | 12 | $45 | $335 | $290 |
| Below median | 12 | $725 | $205 | +$520 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $16 | $75 | $59 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $21 | $517 | $496 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $22 | $9 | +$13 |
| unranked | 39 | $544 | $13.4K | $12.9K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +15,549 | $12,716 | $12,716 | 33 | 08-01 19:39 |
| Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | +8,182 | $1,739 | $1,739 | 7 | 08-03 18:02 |
| Afraid-Pentagon 0x70a9…6a74 | Yes | +4,120 | $679 | $679 | 1 | 07-23 15:22 |
| Unconscious-Airbag 0xff06…2f60 | Yes | +1,161 | $161 | $161 | 1 | 07-23 14:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ff…5cd2 | Yes | +911 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 07-20 05:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x6fcd…99eb | Yes | +615 | $61 | $61 | 1 | 07-10 01:29 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | +547 | $469 | $469 | 32 | 08-04 07:13 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | +494 | $64 | $64 | 27 | 08-04 23:39 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +484 | $406 | $406 | 5 | 08-03 18:02 |
| Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | +312 | $274 | $274 | 1 | 06-30 11:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x20b2…6bd6 | Yes | +231 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 07-19 14:17 |
| Oily-Dock 0x9f76…fb8a | Yes | +216 | $16 | $16 | 4 | 07-03 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | +171 | $28 | $28 | 10 | 08-05 00:10 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +153 | $128 | $281 | 48 | 08-01 01:02 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +135 | $16 | $16 | 6 | 07-08 12:01 |
| Avaricious-Kale 0x004f…9612 | Yes | +119 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-11 20:56 |
| Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | +115 | $14 | $14 | 3 | 06-30 11:32 |
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +104 | $87 | $87 | 5 | 06-07 00:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | +100 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-17 07:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x367e…b15e | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-02 14:59 |
| Liquid-Head 0xc6e1…3b95 | No | +100 | $79 | $79 | 1 | 08-02 22:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | +100 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 08-01 19:39 |
| Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | +92 | $73 | $105 | 6 | 08-05 00:09 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +74 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 08-04 14:06 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | +67 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-28 06:35 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +66 | $52 | $52 | 4 | 08-01 01:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | +60 | $8 | $8 | 4 | 07-23 08:59 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +55 | $11 | $13 | 2 | 08-05 02:35 |
| Adept-Whack-Engine 0x5a55…7d2e | Yes | +48 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 07:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xcc99…1cc4 | Yes | +41 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-04 07:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xb3af…84fc | No | +40 | $36 | $36 | 2 | 07-21 17:54 |
| Fickle-Version 0x7761…f504 | Yes | +34 | $9 | $9 | 3 | 08-02 00:01 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $3 | $22 | 6 | 08-04 07:13 |
| Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | +30 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 06-04 05:53 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $27 | $111 | 7 | 08-02 22:16 |
| Violent-Signature 0xe9fb…dbd0 | Yes | +30 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-30 18:19 |
| Serpentine-Illusion 0xc412…592d | Yes | +22 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-02 00:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f5a…6872 | Yes | +21 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-03 20:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xee8a…f0b0 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-22 07:35 |
| Rectangular-Census 0x8998…32be | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 07-17 23:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 4 | 07-20 05:48 |
| Indolent-Ceiling 0x4e48…a96d | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-03 22:49 |
| Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-02 17:10 |
| Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 08-01 19:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 07-02 22:59 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +10 | $-0 | $43 | 5 | 07-23 15:22 |
| Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-23 14:54 |
| Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 04:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +5 | $-1 | $17 | 3 | 07-14 09:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-09 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-12 21:04 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 02:35:39 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x6c81bb… |
| 08-05 02:35:39 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x6c81bb… |
| 08-05 00:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 75¢ | $4 | 0xfd3589… |
| 08-05 00:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 25¢ | $1 | 0xfd3589… |
| 08-05 00:09:11 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 0 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x98cc79… |
| 08-05 00:09:11 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 0 | 81¢ | $0 | 0x98cc79… |
| 08-05 00:07:48 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 41 | 19¢ | $8 | 0x82193c… |
| 08-05 00:07:48 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 41 | 81¢ | $33 | 0x82193c… |
| 08-04 23:39:05 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xfe9dc0… |
| 08-04 23:39:05 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 9 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xfe9dc0… |
| 08-04 23:39:05 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0xfe9dc0… |
| 08-04 23:39:05 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 40 | 82¢ | $33 | 0xfe9dc0… |
| 08-04 23:39:05 | Honest-Churn 0x2633…67b1 | Yes | SELL | 147 | 17¢ | $26 | 0xfe9dc0… |
| 08-04 14:06:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 19¢ | $10 | 0x097a9b… |
| 08-04 14:06:09 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 54 | 81¢ | $44 | 0x097a9b… |
| 08-04 14:06:09 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x72273e… |
| 08-04 14:06:09 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x72273e… |
| 08-04 13:53:17 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xe7b7a1… |
| 08-04 13:53:17 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xe7b7a1… |
| 08-04 13:53:17 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0xe7b7a1… |
| 08-04 07:13:53 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 12 | 75¢ | $9 | 0x33e517… |
| 08-04 07:13:53 | (anonymous) 0xcc99…1cc4 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 24¢ | $10 | 0x33e517… |
| 08-04 07:13:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x33e517… |
| 08-03 22:49:15 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x86aa73… |
| 08-03 22:49:15 | Indolent-Ceiling 0x4e48…a96d | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x86aa73… |
| 08-03 22:49:15 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 2 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x86aa73… |
| 08-03 22:49:15 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x86aa73… |
| 08-03 20:07:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x2532ce… |
| 08-03 20:07:11 | (anonymous) 0x9f5a…6872 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x2532ce… |
| 08-03 18:02:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xc23a8d… |
| 08-03 18:02:57 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xc23a8d… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 42 | 19¢ | $8 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 100 | 19¢ | $19 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 20¢ | $12 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-03 18:02:53 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 234 | 81¢ | $188 | 0x3d12a4… |
| 08-02 22:16:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 12 | 79¢ | $10 | 0xbbbf83… |
| 08-02 22:16:56 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 53 | 20¢ | $11 | 0xbbbf83… |
| 08-02 22:16:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xbbbf83… |
| 08-02 22:16:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 21¢ | $6 | 0xbbbf83… |
| 08-02 22:16:56 | Liquid-Head 0xc6e1…3b95 | No | BUY | 100 | 79¢ | $79 | 0xbbbf83… |
| 08-02 17:10:51 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xe017e5… |
| 08-02 17:10:51 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0xe017e5… |
| 08-02 17:10:51 | Rubbery-Artist 0xd24b…18ee | Yes | SELL | 45 | 21¢ | $10 | 0xe017e5… |
| 08-02 17:10:51 | Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 22¢ | $2 | 0xe017e5… |
| 08-02 00:01:44 | Fickle-Version 0x7761…f504 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 27¢ | $5 | 0xb77522… |
| 08-02 00:01:44 | Great-Barbeque 0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 27¢ | $5 | 0xb77522… |
| 08-01 19:39:45 | Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | No | BUY | 10 | 76¢ | $8 | 0x9a7d1a… |
| 08-01 19:39:45 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 610 | 76¢ | $463 | 0x9a7d1a… |
| 08-01 19:39:45 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 100 | 75¢ | $75 | 0x9a7d1a… |
| 08-01 19:39:45 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 500 | 76¢ | $380 | 0x9a7d1a… |
| 08-01 05:53:09 | (anonymous) 0x9bc3…d392 | No | SELL | 10 | 75¢ | $8 | 0xed907a… |
| 08-01 05:53:09 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 10 | 75¢ | $8 | 0xed907a… |
| 08-01 05:52:44 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 10 | 75¢ | $8 | 0x8b4197… |
| 08-01 05:52:44 | (anonymous) 0x9bc3…d392 | No | SELL | 10 | 75¢ | $8 | 0x8b4197… |
| 08-01 04:51:45 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 8 | 75¢ | $6 | 0x09d512… |
| 08-01 04:51:45 | Fickle-Version 0x7761…f504 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 25¢ | $2 | 0x09d512… |
| 08-01 04:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 8 | 75¢ | $6 | 0xc03e66… |
| 08-01 04:51:44 | Fickle-Version 0x7761…f504 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 25¢ | $2 | 0xc03e66… |
| 08-01 03:14:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x597c1b… |
| 08-01 03:14:02 | (anonymous) 0xb651…2089 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x597c1b… |
| 08-01 01:02:32 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 669 | 75¢ | $502 | 0x50d394… |
| 08-01 01:02:32 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x50d394… |
| 08-01 01:02:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 51 | 77¢ | $39 | 0x50d394… |
| 08-01 01:02:32 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 1,226 | 24¢ | $300 | 0x50d394… |
| 08-01 01:02:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 78¢ | $23 | 0x50d394… |
| 08-01 01:01:51 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xe0d03b… |
| 08-01 01:01:51 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 544 | 76¢ | $413 | 0xe0d03b… |
| 08-01 01:01:51 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xe0d03b… |
| 08-01 01:01:51 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xe0d03b… |
| 08-01 01:01:51 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 5,639 | 21¢ | $1,200 | 0xe0d03b… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 40 | 83¢ | $33 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 82¢ | $820 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 3 | 84¢ | $2 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 1,118 | 18¢ | $200 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 21:23:17 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xa07b9d… |
| 07-31 11:58:29 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 2 | 84¢ | $2 | 0x8d7721… |
| 07-31 11:58:29 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x8d7721… |
| 07-31 11:58:29 | Rubbery-Artist 0xd24b…18ee | Yes | BUY | 13 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x8d7721… |
| 07-31 04:58:03 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 50 | 88¢ | $44 | 0x19b071… |
| 07-31 04:58:03 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x19b071… |
| 07-31 04:58:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x19b071… |
| 07-31 04:58:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x19b071… |
| 07-30 18:19:53 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xfd7a1d… |
| 07-30 18:19:53 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xfd7a1d… |
| 07-30 18:19:53 | Violent-Signature 0xe9fb…dbd0 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xfd7a1d… |
| 07-30 18:19:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 2 | 84¢ | $2 | 0xfd7a1d… |
| 07-30 04:13:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x4a90e1… |
| 07-30 04:13:56 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x4a90e1… |
| 07-30 03:45:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x7e2094… |
| 07-30 03:45:50 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x7e2094… |
| 07-30 03:35:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x7103a0… |
| 07-30 03:35:51 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x7103a0… |
| 07-29 15:39:09 | (anonymous) 0xccb3…c2e4 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xbd1348… |