Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,128
$9 in 24h
Trades
90
Unique wallets
30
Liquidity
$3,388
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
86¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-22 00:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-13.1¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $87
vs crowd: 13% YES on $711)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | — | $114 | $114 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $4 | $151 | $147 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $11 | $329 | $319 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 15 | $78 | $24 | +$54 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $87 | $87 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Median | 4 | $22 | — | +$22 |
| Below median | 5 | $6 | $38 | $32 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $12 | — | +$12 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $140 | $140 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 12 | $48 | $354 | $305 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +306 | $255 | $255 | 5 | 06-18 09:49 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +129 | $114 | $114 | 1 | 06-05 07:18 |
| Avaricious-Kale 0x004f…9612 | Yes | +119 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-11 20:56 |
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +104 | $87 | $87 | 5 | 06-07 00:20 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +97 | $12 | $12 | 4 | 06-22 00:10 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | +76 | $66 | $66 | 5 | 06-22 00:10 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | +67 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-28 06:35 |
| Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | +55 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 06-05 07:18 |
| Adept-Whack-Engine 0x5a55…7d2e | Yes | +48 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 07:10 |
| Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | +41 | $7 | $16 | 5 | 06-17 22:36 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | +40 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-18 09:49 |
| Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | +30 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 06-04 05:53 |
| Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | Yes | +25 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 12:43 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +20 | $16 | $60 | 14 | 06-19 12:43 |
| Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 04:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b5a…5651 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 07:18 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-22 00:10:53 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x6bec51… |
| 06-21 05:31:41 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xb771ee… |
| 06-21 05:31:41 | Gummy-Casserole 0x9be5…985e | No | SELL | 3 | 86¢ | $2 | 0xb771ee… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xefd2bf… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0xefd2bf… |
| 06-19 12:43:41 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 16 | 87¢ | $14 | 0xefd2bf… |
| 06-18 17:03:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xb6e987… |
| 06-18 17:03:56 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 12¢ | $3 | 0xb6e987… |
| 06-18 17:03:56 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0xb6e987… |
| 06-18 09:49:07 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 88¢ | $9 | 0x9b658a… |
| 06-18 09:49:07 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 90 | 88¢ | $79 | 0x9b658a… |
| 06-18 09:49:07 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x9b658a… |
| 06-18 09:49:07 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x9b658a… |
| 06-17 22:36:55 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 13¢ | $2 | 0xb60bc4… |
| 06-17 22:36:55 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 16 | 87¢ | $14 | 0xb60bc4… |
| 06-15 14:23:30 | Caring-Paramecium 0xe714…0b4a | No | SELL | 130 | 84¢ | $110 | 0x417fd0… |
| 06-15 14:23:30 | (anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x417fd0… |
| 06-15 14:23:30 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x417fd0… |
| 06-15 14:23:30 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x417fd0… |
| 06-15 14:23:30 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 109 | 84¢ | $92 | 0x417fd0… |
| 06-15 07:46:00 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x74b0f8… |
| 06-15 07:46:00 | Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x74b0f8… |
| 06-12 07:10:58 | Adept-Whack-Engine 0x5a55…7d2e | Yes | BUY | 48 | 17¢ | $8 | 0xfb26ed… |
| 06-12 07:10:58 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xfb26ed… |
| 06-12 07:10:58 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0xfb26ed… |
| 06-12 07:10:58 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xfb26ed… |
| 06-12 07:10:58 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xfb26ed… |
| 06-11 20:56:07 | Avaricious-Kale 0x004f…9612 | Yes | BUY | 119 | 21¢ | $25 | 0xd9a5c4… |
| 06-11 20:56:07 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xd9a5c4… |
| 06-11 20:56:07 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 4 | 81¢ | $3 | 0xd9a5c4… |
| 06-11 20:56:07 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 90 | 78¢ | $70 | 0xd9a5c4… |
| 06-11 20:56:07 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xd9a5c4… |
| 06-10 04:57:01 | Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xc84676… |
| 06-10 04:57:01 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0xc84676… |
| 06-07 00:20:16 | Deadheadbucky 0x68d9…00ed | No | SELL | 92 | 84¢ | $77 | 0xaabe05… |
| 06-07 00:20:16 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xaabe05… |
| 06-07 00:20:16 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xaabe05… |
| 06-07 00:20:16 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xaabe05… |
| 06-07 00:20:16 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 41 | 83¢ | $34 | 0xaabe05… |
| 06-06 11:51:10 | Blaring-Bankruptcy 0x463f…d07f | No | SELL | 23 | 85¢ | $20 | 0xe8143d… |
| 06-06 11:51:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xe8143d… |
| 06-06 11:51:10 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xe8143d… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 129 | 88¢ | $114 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 46 | 88¢ | $41 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 18 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | (anonymous) 0x3b5a…5651 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-05 07:18:28 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x3a1ae8… |
| 06-04 05:53:46 | Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | BUY | 30 | 87¢ | $26 | 0x108c32… |
| 06-04 05:53:46 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 13¢ | $4 | 0x108c32… |
| 06-04 02:50:36 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0xbecfbd… |
| 06-04 02:50:36 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xbecfbd… |
| 06-04 02:50:36 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xbecfbd… |
| 06-04 02:50:36 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xbecfbd… |
| 06-01 22:59:22 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xc93be1… |
| 06-01 22:59:22 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0xc93be1… |
| 06-01 22:35:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 13 | 87¢ | $11 | 0x5cb6cf… |
| 06-01 22:35:13 | Blaring-Bankruptcy 0x463f…d07f | No | BUY | 23 | 87¢ | $20 | 0x5cb6cf… |
| 06-01 22:35:13 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x5cb6cf… |
| 06-01 13:15:09 | Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x173503… |
| 06-01 13:15:09 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x173503… |
| 05-30 01:48:20 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0xb16f07… |
| 05-30 01:48:20 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xb16f07… |
| 05-30 01:48:20 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 36 | 87¢ | $31 | 0xb16f07… |
| 05-29 18:38:04 | Breakable-Pentagon 0x6fc9…63b2 | No | SELL | 17 | 85¢ | $14 | 0x877f4b… |
| 05-29 18:38:04 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x877f4b… |
| 05-29 08:01:30 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xd5d1b6… |
| 05-29 08:01:30 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 14 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xd5d1b6… |
| 05-29 08:01:30 | Sizzling-Noir 0x51d2…e5ca | No | SELL | 50 | 85¢ | $42 | 0xd5d1b6… |
| 05-29 08:01:30 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xd5d1b6… |
| 05-28 12:41:05 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 9 | 87¢ | $8 | 0xe37569… |
| 05-28 12:41:05 | Hasty-Essential 0x8d5e…2fe2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xe37569… |
| 05-28 12:41:05 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xe37569… |
| 05-28 12:41:05 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0xe37569… |
| 05-28 11:48:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x24ba2a… |
| 05-28 11:48:56 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 29 | 13¢ | $4 | 0x24ba2a… |
| 05-28 11:48:56 | Pleasant-Steeple 0x2631…5592 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 13¢ | $8 | 0x24ba2a… |
| 05-28 11:48:56 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x24ba2a… |
| 05-28 07:47:27 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xe5f699… |
| 05-28 07:47:27 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xe5f699… |
| 05-28 07:47:27 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 11 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xe5f699… |
| 05-28 07:44:59 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6c3401… |
| 05-28 07:44:59 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6c3401… |
| 05-28 07:44:59 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6c3401… |
| 05-28 06:35:32 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xe1be57… |
| 05-28 06:35:32 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xe1be57… |
| 05-28 06:35:32 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 26 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xe1be57… |
| 05-28 06:35:32 | Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 15¢ | $10 | 0xe1be57… |