Serpentine-Illusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$67

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

Trades

6,077

lifetime

Volume

$596.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 11:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

57% 92% +$115

Politics

26% 50% $-43

Sports

14% 50% $-6

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	134	$14.6K	10,500	8,529	+1,971	open	—	01-25 21:24
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	28	$12.3K	7,778	5,755	+2,023	open	—	04-30 02:44
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	12	$7.4K	7,055	526	+6,529	open	—	01-26 16:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$7.4K	7,734	0	+7,734	open	—	06-24 17:00
will no government funding bill be passed by january 31 2026 823	76	$7.2K	6,642	4,064	+2,579	open	—	01-31 17:35
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 5 january 11 be between 13750000 and 14000000	4	$6.5K	6,503	0	+6,503	open	—	01-12 13:44
will iran strike turkey in march	50	$6.2K	4,663	3,550	+1,113	open	—	04-01 19:50
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	25	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-21 14:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	6	$5.8K	3,400	3,400	+0	open	—	05-01 03:10
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	3	$5.3K	5,280	0	+5,280	open	—	07-07 18:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	10	$4.9K	2,212	2,912	-700	open	—	05-01 01:37
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	50	$4.6K	5,225	4,985	+240	open	—	01-22 20:34
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	17	$4.6K	2,980	2,387	+593	open	—	07-29 18:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	6	$4.5K	3,597	947	+2,651	open	—	04-26 11:54
enhanced aca premium tax credits extended by january 31	22	$4.5K	3,758	1,777	+1,981	open	—	01-31 15:51
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	28	$4.4K	3,750	4,038	-288	open	—	01-24 23:18
will the match not air 20260629195526269	1	$4.1K	4,120	0	+4,120	open	—	07-01 02:08
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	43	$4.0K	3,477	3,750	-273	open	—	01-30 21:46
will trump say judy shelton during the state of the union address	14	$3.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	02-25 00:32
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 5 january 11 be less than 13750000	6	$3.4K	3,412	0	+3,412	open	—	01-12 13:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	12	$3.3K	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	04-30 18:32
Iran leadership change by March 13?	21	$3.2K	3,281	0	+3,281	open	—	03-14 06:33
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	04-14 23:58
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	5	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	03-04 17:15
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	13	$2.9K	2,500	1,500	+1,000	open	—	01-24 23:17
will the total number of tsa passengers for february 9 15 be less than 14000000	5	$2.8K	2,831	0	+2,831	open	—	02-16 22:26
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	5	$2.8K	2,857	0	+2,857	open	—	05-05 00:57
will anthropic run an ad during super bowl lx	7	$2.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	02-09 00:28
will the next government funding bill be passed on january 30 2026 763	25	$2.6K	3,666	1,000	+2,666	open	—	01-30 23:57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$2.5K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	04-08 22:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 11:14:12	will us crude oil reserves fall to 375m by may 1 20260714141931928	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xe5d531…
08-09 00:21:01	will us crude oil reserves fall to 375m by may 1 20260714141931928	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x3f8cee…
08-08 21:43:30	todd blanche nomination withdrawn by august 31 20260731141647591	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf23cd8…
08-08 14:23:12	will wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day 20260723222724608	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x6e6804…
08-08 09:19:15	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	SELL	360	100¢	$359	0x8b8917…
08-07 15:13:00	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	SELL	74	95¢	$70	0x3c7085…
08-07 15:10:21	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0x299367…
08-07 14:42:42	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x4fc9bd…
08-07 14:40:43	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x27eaba…
08-07 14:13:51	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x9cebf1…
08-07 14:09:55	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x26e726…
08-07 14:08:31	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xcf1d4a…
08-07 14:08:28	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	35	89¢	$31	0x2c9497…
08-07 04:26:57	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h moneyline	Cardinals	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x1f2fd1…
08-07 03:17:00	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h moneyline	Cardinals	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc54ec2…
08-07 02:32:34	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x127987…
08-07 02:22:48	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 total 39pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7af9b5…
08-07 02:20:33	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h total 23pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaf75f1…
08-07 02:20:24	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h total 18pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0b94e0…
08-07 02:20:15	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h total 16pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb27a39…
08-07 02:19:57	nfl car ari 2026 08 07 1h total 17pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x106fcd…
08-07 01:53:55	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	200	90¢	$179	0xfaad47…
08-06 23:37:09	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x697b48…
08-06 23:37:05	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x693638…
08-06 21:03:35	will trump say bitcoin or crypto or cryptocurrency during tele rally 20260806153758785	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x1bf35e…
08-06 21:02:48	will trumps remarks not air 20260806153758786	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x584523…
08-06 12:57:14	Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x3820d7…
08-06 12:57:05	Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?	No	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x316ab2…
08-05 22:29:33	will trumps remarks not air 20260803153421461	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x88799a…
08-05 22:23:27	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x0af1a6…
08-05 22:04:56	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x8bffbf…
08-05 22:04:15	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xed2262…
08-05 22:03:48	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xf726f1…
08-05 21:51:17	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0xfb28bf…
08-05 21:50:35	will trump say bitcoin crypto or cryptocurrency during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421460	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x14cf91…
08-05 21:41:15	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xbbba27…
08-05 21:24:45	will trumps remarks not air 20260803153421461	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xdc8094…
08-05 21:21:32	will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xa6b5df…
08-05 17:36:42	will susan collins vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821980	No	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x631355…
08-05 15:38:18	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xd6bd2f…
08-04 22:51:53	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	SELL	65	21¢	$14	0xee4af5…
08-04 22:10:56	will mitch mcconnell vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821977	No	BUY	68	92¢	$63	0x617399…
08-04 21:27:50	will susan collins vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821980	Yes	BUY	88	28¢	$25	0x91f874…
08-04 21:27:38	will susan collins vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821980	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x2a2330…
08-04 21:27:06	will susan collins vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821980	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x62035f…
08-01 03:23:48	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x88ed17…
07-31 16:47:32	will us crude oil reserves fall to 300m by may 1 20260714141931931	No	BUY	400	98¢	$392	0x9a1bb0…
07-31 14:55:50	will mrbeast say ai or artificial intelligence during his next youtube video 20260729175811877	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x70101a…
07-31 12:12:05	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf162e9…
07-31 09:28:33	gemini 4pt0 released by july 31 2026	No	SELL	395	100¢	$395	0xf1a821…
07-31 05:57:47	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x640c74…
07-31 03:27:48	will mrbeast say ai or artificial intelligence during his next youtube video 20260729175811877	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x93fa8a…
07-31 03:27:42	will mrbeast say ai or artificial intelligence during his next youtube video 20260729175811877	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xdebdb3…
07-30 22:15:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x195a8a…
07-29 19:39:51	will warsh say holding during july press conference 20260728013709204	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x4d2205…
07-29 19:27:08	will warsh say bet or betting during july press conference 20260720204109038	No	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x8f2dd1…
07-29 19:25:56	will warsh say bet or betting during july press conference 20260720204109038	No	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xa4357f…
07-29 19:23:54	will warsh say north star during july press conference 20260720204109036	Yes	BUY	167	100¢	$166	0x458c80…
07-29 19:22:15	will warsh say north star during july press conference 20260720204109036	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x221c06…
07-29 19:17:12	will warsh say echo of history during july press conference 20260720204109034	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x423626…
07-29 19:16:15	will warsh say anchor or anchored during july press conference 20260720204109051	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x686a1c…
07-29 19:15:48	will warsh say trump during july press conference 20260720204109039	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1c6950…
07-29 19:13:57	will warsh say predecessor during july press conference 20260720204109037	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x8efa9f…
07-29 19:10:00	will warsh say good afternoon during july press conference 20260720204109060 622	No	BUY	300	98¢	$296	0xda282d…
07-29 18:58:48	will warsh say bet or betting during july press conference 20260720204109038	No	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x4fb91d…
07-29 18:57:50	will warsh say dissent during july press conference 20260720204109057 245	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x1b9395…
07-29 18:57:27	will warsh say trump during july press conference 20260720204109039	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xbaf36d…
07-29 18:44:54	will warsh say pandemic during july press conference 20260720204109058 487	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf2cefa…
07-29 18:41:30	will warsh say dissent during july press conference 20260720204109057 245	No	BUY	8	79¢	$7	0x86aad4…
07-29 18:41:27	will warsh say dissent during july press conference 20260720204109057 245	No	BUY	12	79¢	$9	0xa23082…
07-29 18:41:12	will warsh say dissent during july press conference 20260720204109057 245	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x5bf07f…
07-29 18:41:03	will warsh say dissent during july press conference 20260720204109057 245	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xe51901…
07-29 18:40:03	will warsh say anchor or anchored during july press conference 20260720204109051	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x012fc2…
07-29 18:39:03	will warsh say ai or artificial intelligence during july press conference 20260720204109043	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xc2d4dc…
07-29 18:37:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	70¢	$120	0xad1e3a…
07-29 18:33:41	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x3883a1…
07-29 18:32:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x324105…
07-29 18:31:05	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x832376…
07-29 18:15:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	70¢	$55	0xb2fee6…
07-29 18:15:02	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	70¢	$42	0x193465…
07-29 18:12:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	69¢	$121	0xf78d16…
07-29 18:12:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	68¢	$18	0x7857f8…
07-29 18:11:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x01343e…
07-29 18:11:05	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	68¢	$143	0xf065dc…
07-29 18:11:05	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	69¢	$62	0x046a3e…
07-29 18:11:02	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	68¢	$33	0xd001f3…
07-29 18:10:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	241	68¢	$164	0x1ae205…
07-29 18:10:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	69¢	$77	0xc1d2a9…
07-29 18:00:06	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	71	81¢	$58	0xe50785…
07-29 17:59:54	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	123	81¢	$100	0x77531c…
07-29 17:59:51	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x78e851…
07-29 17:59:42	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	183	78¢	$142	0xabe339…
07-29 17:30:24	will warsh say good afternoon during july press conference 20260720204109060 622	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x11e476…
07-29 15:39:09	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0x56afa7…
07-29 14:03:21	will us crude oil reserves fall to 375m by may 1 20260714141931928	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$22	0x57d5c4…
07-28 23:16:25	jay clayton confirmed as director of national intelligence by august 30 20260611210916707	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0x81a35b…
07-28 22:46:16	jay clayton confirmed as director of national intelligence by october 31 20260611210916708	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x10ab49…
07-28 22:44:26	will susan collins vote to confirm jay clayton as director of national intelligence 20260611212215862	No	SELL	150	13¢	$20	0xe9b068…
07-28 22:40:34	will lisa murkowski vote to confirm jay clayton as director of national intelligence 20260611212215857	Yes	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xed8524…
07-28 18:35:32	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xa2bf22…