Experienced-Carpeting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$500

Unrealized P&L

+$1.41K

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

341

Trades

4,538

lifetime

Volume

$2.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$451

Open exposure

$28.1K

24 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-04 15:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

84% 81% +$1,007

Politics

13% 75% -$797

Crypto

3% 86% +$278

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (24) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+12,682	$11,120	90¢	$11.5K	+$358	09-15 05:09
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-4,943	-$4,646	98¢	$-4834	-$188	05-05 23:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+3,000	$2,550	88¢	$2.7K	+$105	10-04 08:28
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+2,336	$2,009	95¢	$2.2K	+$203	09-10 21:17
Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	+2,191	$1,768	95¢	$2.1K	+$322	09-11 02:49
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	+1,300	$1,240	98¢	$1.3K	+$39	10-04 08:29
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+535	$284	95¢	$509	+$225	09-21 02:54
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	+470	$428	97¢	$454	+$26	10-04 08:29
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+500	$370	88¢	$442	+$72	09-21 02:53
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+381	$297	94¢	$360	+$63	08-02 16:15
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$255	94¢	$284	+$28	10-04 07:49
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$264	94¢	$284	+$19	10-04 07:49
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+229	$183	97¢	$222	+$39	06-04 05:33
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	+214	$189	87¢	$186	-$4	10-04 06:05
will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	+200	$163	91¢	$182	+$19	10-04 07:59
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	+155	$133	92¢	$143	+$10	08-02 16:16
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	-141	-$142	96¢	$-134	+$7	09-09 10:55
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	No	-123	-$119	97¢	$-120	$0	09-09 10:55
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	+94	$86	96¢	$91	+$5	08-12 20:58
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	+85	$126	90¢	$76	-$50	09-11 01:22
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+70	-$29	96¢	$67	+$96	10-04 07:59
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+69	$52	57¢	$40	-$13	07-01 00:02
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Yes	-19	-$5	6¢	$-1	+$4	05-18 21:32
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	+0	-$20	94¢	$0	+$20	05-18 21:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1,270	$842.4K	607,143	380,496	+226,646	No	+$17,708	01-16 14:21
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	828	$283.2K	203,007	318,488	-115,481	Yes	-$18,398	01-16 14:21
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	139	$90.8K	107,544	35,159	+72,385	No	+$3,120	03-06 14:28
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	61	$77.5K	40,000	40,000	+0	No	+$40	02-17 01:03
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	20	$65.4K	15,474	63,804	-48,330	Yes	-$4,526	03-17 23:56
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	146	$43.1K	47,463	51,651	-4,188	No	+$142	02-19 19:33
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	31	$24.9K	24,591	357,448	-332,857	No	+$412	01-16 14:22
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	187	$23.3K	26,558	24,874	+1,684	No	+$119	02-19 23:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	33	$22.8K	11,704	11,704	+0	No	+$124	05-15 06:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	4	$20.9K	10,611	10,602	+9	No	+$102	04-17 13:12
si hit 150 high jan 2026	25	$20.7K	10,784	10,784	+0	No	+$20	01-27 01:14
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	22	$20.6K	10,490	10,490	+0	No	+$347	03-30 04:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	25	$20.3K	10,339	10,339	+0	Yes	+$258	04-17 13:12
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	16	$19.4K	17,595	4,913	+12,682	open	—	09-15 05:09
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$18.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$292	03-12 19:08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	17	$17.7K	10,912	7,773	+3,139	No	+$496	09-15 03:21
will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of february 957 911 432 757 792 499 213 135	30	$17.2K	8,474	9,089	-614	No	+$158	02-07 13:10
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	333	$15.7K	40,857	26,089	+14,767	Yes	+$147	02-17 01:14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	8	$14.4K	12,010	12,010	+0	No	+$359	06-23 10:09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	5	$11.5K	5,677	6,177	-500	No	+$171	06-02 04:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	18	$10.8K	4,695	6,295	-1,600	No	+$29	04-10 02:48
will bitcoin dip to 40k in february 2026 785 212 222	10	$9.1K	4,635	4,635	+0	No	-$6	02-04 23:45
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	13	$8.7K	4,872	4,872	+0	open	—	07-17 12:13
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	15	$7.9K	4,088	4,088	-0	No	+$147	06-28 19:15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	5	$7.5K	3,827	3,827	+0	No	+$33	04-08 02:18
2026 us senate election republican odds over 75 by march 31	2	$6.1K	6,211	0	+6,211	No	+$98	03-13 19:44
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	9	$6.1K	5,703	515	+5,188	No	+$70	03-24 19:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	5	$5.9K	3,086	3,080	+6	No	+$70	04-12 02:05
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	5	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$105	06-23 10:09
2026 us senate election democrats flip republicans by march 31	22	$5.5K	4,014	4,273	-260	Yes	+$928	03-13 23:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 15:49:49	Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0xa9b332…
10-04 10:28:23	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x8ccf97…
10-04 10:28:10	America.gov removed by October 31?	No	BUY	201	98¢	$197	0xe05787…
10-04 10:26:16	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x5a6b79…
10-04 10:26:08	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x24ee8b…
10-04 10:25:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?	No	BUY	350	94¢	$328	0xc3349f…
10-04 10:25:02	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $120 in October?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x88fcd3…
10-04 10:24:55	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $115 in October?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xa24892…
10-04 10:24:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in October?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x251da2…
10-04 10:24:28	will nvda dip to 184 in october 2026	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xb5755a…
10-04 08:54:25	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x5774a5…
10-04 08:54:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?	No	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0x2777b6…
10-04 08:53:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in October?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x94ee24…
10-04 08:52:20	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in October?	No	BUY	129	95¢	$123	0x17c90c…
10-04 08:46:16	Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0x6bf39c…
10-04 08:45:59	Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	93¢	$57	0x9a8f11…
10-04 08:45:53	Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0xede933…
10-04 08:45:47	Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	171	92¢	$158	0xfeb5a5…
10-04 08:45:08	Will XRP reach $2.20 in October?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x64e8a4…
10-04 08:44:20	Will XRP reach $2.40 in October?	No	BUY	182	98¢	$179	0xc00920…
10-04 08:33:10	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xe320fe…
10-04 08:29:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	170	93¢	$159	0x16046c…
10-04 08:29:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$954	0xddc11f…
10-04 08:29:31	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	300	95¢	$286	0x58a880…
10-04 08:28:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,550	0xa455c2…
10-04 08:24:07	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x5860fd…
10-04 07:59:50	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x8f1368…
10-04 07:59:43	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0xc4e441…
10-04 07:49:47	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x99dbae…
10-04 07:49:41	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x267ec1…
10-04 07:49:07	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	No	BUY	420	85¢	$359	0x782d5f…
10-04 07:00:14	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	No	BUY	1,083	85¢	$923	0xe64e76…
10-04 06:05:10	Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	BUY	214	88¢	$189	0x927400…
10-04 06:03:53	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0x7b83f4…
10-04 06:03:40	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?	No	BUY	250	86¢	$214	0x449f0e…
10-04 06:03:28	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?	No	BUY	120	87¢	$105	0xbf7e2d…
10-04 06:01:47	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x79f2b9…
10-04 06:01:41	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x94a0bf…
10-04 05:58:04	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$907	0x288ba9…
09-24 03:48:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	62	23¢	$14	0x1e4eef…
09-24 02:07:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xbf0d51…
09-24 02:07:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x99eff1…
09-23 23:14:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	48	23¢	$11	0xdbe17f…
09-23 23:03:11	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	349	23¢	$80	0x15f648…
09-23 19:30:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0xad1c6b…
09-23 18:49:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x8ad921…
09-23 18:49:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	1,376	80¢	$1,104	0x495908…
09-21 02:54:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	135	88¢	$119	0x416b9e…
09-21 02:53:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	518	99¢	$510	0xbb960c…
09-21 02:53:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0x1cdeab…
09-21 02:52:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0x653d99…
09-21 02:52:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	SELL	2,083	99¢	$2,067	0x0cac43…
09-15 05:09:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	770	84¢	$647	0x782165…
09-15 03:21:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	457	84¢	$384	0xd0843a…
09-15 03:21:24	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	984	98¢	$966	0xd04804…
09-12 20:52:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	SELL	685	11¢	$73	0xd53392…
09-11 08:17:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	1,455	87¢	$1,266	0xeb2afb…
09-11 08:17:10	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	4,124	98¢	$4,049	0x37c564…
09-11 07:48:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?	No	BUY	92	72¢	$66	0xce7f00…
09-11 07:46:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	BUY	493	67¢	$332	0x7142d7…
09-11 07:45:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	BUY	470	91¢	$426	0x9663f3…
09-11 07:45:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$942	0xad8575…
09-11 07:45:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	2,500	96¢	$2,395	0xcafcb8…
09-11 07:37:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	BUY	2,083	97¢	$2,031	0x7b821a…
09-11 07:36:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0xd92e56…
09-11 02:50:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	279	85¢	$236	0x50d8f8…
09-11 02:49:34	Natural Disaster in 2026?	No	BUY	180	87¢	$156	0x0f1a6a…
09-11 01:23:15	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	88¢	$220	0x81ba24…
09-11 01:22:46	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	SELL	379	78¢	$296	0x23c65a…
09-11 01:22:30	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	86¢	$430	0xa79d87…
09-10 21:18:34	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x000d82…
09-10 21:18:28	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	600	88¢	$528	0x051e33…
09-10 21:18:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	1,500	91¢	$1,362	0x91103b…
09-10 21:17:52	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$53	0xd6865c…
09-10 21:17:45	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	No	SELL	918	93¢	$853	0x76dc5e…
09-10 21:17:40	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	No	SELL	459	90¢	$415	0xd8ce82…
09-10 21:17:34	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	SELL	600	86¢	$514	0x82f268…
09-10 21:17:24	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$474	0x759f25…
09-10 21:17:16	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x8f6c65…
09-10 21:17:09	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	480	95¢	$454	0x6be0aa…
09-10 21:17:01	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	65¢	$39	0x46c821…
09-10 21:16:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	5,713	96¢	$5,484	0x4e044b…
09-10 21:15:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	4,913	84¢	$4,127	0x2a74d6…
09-10 20:53:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	SELL	690	93¢	$639	0x2d60f0…
09-10 20:53:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	SELL	2,639	83¢	$2,194	0x7e62e1…
09-10 20:45:00	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	SELL	1,335	75¢	$999	0x4ec2c2…
09-10 18:18:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	SELL	290	75¢	$216	0xedd225…
09-10 18:18:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	SELL	1,000	54¢	$541	0xccd2c1…
09-10 13:36:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	969	91¢	$883	0x2d44d6…
09-10 13:35:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	1,000	70¢	$699	0xf49359…
09-10 13:35:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	569	91¢	$516	0x5caa7d…
09-10 13:35:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	395	96¢	$379	0x418f95…
09-10 10:30:39	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	SELL	126	83¢	$105	0x37bdbd…
09-09 18:45:54	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	SELL	3	83¢	$3	0x2df4f2…
09-09 10:58:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	BUY	290	92¢	$268	0x7e3c8a…
09-09 10:58:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	295	98¢	$291	0x058f3c…
09-09 10:57:27	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$298	0x9914d6…
09-09 10:57:04	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	256	84¢	$215	0xef2211…
09-09 10:56:51	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	600	80¢	$480	0xf70be0…
09-09 10:56:33	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	SELL	68	83¢	$56	0x4b1b2f…