Flaky-Shadow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$78

Unrealized P&L

+$107

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,358

lifetime

Volume

$82.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$782

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 07-21 23:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

52% 100% +$85

Crypto

29% — —

Tech

10% — —

Sports

9% 45% $-7

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	-559	$-481	70¢	$-394	+$87	07-16 22:14
Will the New York Mets win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+119	$117	100¢	$119	+$1	07-21 23:42
Will the Detroit Tigers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+74	$73	99¢	$73	$-0	06-07 21:48
Will the Chicago Cubs win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+72	$70	94¢	$68	$-2	07-08 03:44
Will the San Diego Padres win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+39	$38	95¢	$37	$-1	06-05 23:18
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+39	$38	92¢	$36	$-2	06-05 23:18
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win more than 83.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	O 83.5	+64	$34	48¢	$31	$-3	06-04 07:02
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	-42	$-19	22¢	$-9	+$9	06-07 09:32
Will the New York Yankees win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	+10	$9	78¢	$8	$-1	07-11 17:11
Will the Seattle Mariners win more than 88.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	O 88.5	+26	$11	23¢	$6	$-5	06-04 07:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+0	$-23	99¢	$0	+$23	07-07 09:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	7	$6.7K	28,562	28,562	+0	open	—	03-30 16:46
will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	19	$3.3K	1,663	1,663	+0	open	—	06-30 03:42
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	10	$2.9K	1,573	1,573	+0	open	—	06-30 20:13
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	27	$2.5K	1,541	1,228	+312	open	—	05-22 20:05
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	9	$2.2K	1,196	1,196	+0	open	—	07-01 02:52
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	6	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	open	—	06-15 12:35
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	39	$2.0K	2,010	1,490	+521	open	—	07-20 21:28
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	11	$1.9K	1,090	1,090	+0	Yes	+$79	04-29 19:56
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	7	$1.9K	5,931	0	+5,931	open	—	03-08 10:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	11	$1.8K	1,463	548	+915	open	—	04-01 03:50
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	15	$1.8K	579	1,238	-658	open	—	06-29 08:02
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	5	$1.7K	3,021	200	+2,821	open	—	03-14 19:19
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	6	$1.7K	3,526	3,526	+0	open	—	03-30 16:46
will ethereum dip to 1400 in june 2026	11	$1.7K	893	893	+0	open	—	06-30 18:08
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?	24	$1.6K	941	860	+81	open	—	05-29 19:23
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	18	$1.5K	1,010	610	+400	open	—	05-29 08:44
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	14	$1.4K	508	1,267	-759	open	—	07-16 22:14
will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	70	$1.4K	2,193	1,173	+1,019	open	—	03-31 12:07
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	25	$1.3K	2,223	950	+1,273	open	—	03-26 19:58
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	18	$1.3K	800	635	+165	open	—	05-29 06:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	8	$1.3K	1,693	155	+1,538	open	—	04-07 14:24
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	10	$1.2K	894	508	+386	open	—	04-27 16:15
will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	9	$1.1K	886	375	+511	open	—	07-21 17:57
mlb mil col 2026 06 06	5	$1.1K	620	620	+0	open	—	06-07 03:42
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?	35	$956	482	482	+0	open	—	06-27 00:41
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	5	$849	1,808	1,808	+0	open	—	06-12 14:51
will spy reach 770 in july 2026	1	$840	905	0	+905	open	—	07-21 02:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	8	$810	751	154	+597	open	—	06-01 01:53
mlb tb mia 2026 06 06	4	$805	415	415	+0	open	—	06-06 23:00
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	17	$788	538	538	+0	open	—	02-27 09:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 23:42:46	Will the New York Mets win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x8da553…
07-21 17:57:09	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	511	98¢	$500	0xe7b03b…
07-21 02:28:58	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	905	93¢	$840	0x03ef69…
07-20 21:28:24	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	521	96¢	$500	0xe60f36…
07-20 21:24:33	will spy dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	317	95¢	$300	0x958868…
07-20 16:31:28	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0xd09885…
07-20 16:26:24	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0xcd271d…
07-20 16:25:13	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xa3eac8…
07-20 16:25:07	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x2b14fd…
07-20 16:25:01	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x9391c6…
07-19 00:20:52	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	110	92¢	$101	0x49d701…
07-18 04:49:19	msft above 450 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x504514…
07-18 04:44:37	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0x532ce2…
07-16 23:28:55	Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	No	SELL	114	88¢	$100	0xfde319…
07-16 22:14:35	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	917	79¢	$722	0x7dc0b4…
07-16 21:35:56	will amzn reach 264 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0x33bb83…
07-16 21:35:13	will amzn reach 280 in july 2026	No	SELL	56	73¢	$41	0xd3df42…
07-16 21:27:01	mu above 1280 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x7fb19e…
07-16 21:26:41	mu above 1200 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x395625…
07-16 20:30:43	will amzn reach 280 in july 2026	No	SELL	166	79¢	$131	0x7eeac5…
07-15 14:30:34	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	150	96¢	$144	0x86d312…
07-15 00:26:56	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	77	87¢	$67	0xfd5bd2…
07-15 00:23:59	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0xba4fea…
07-15 00:23:59	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	18	87¢	$16	0xb9b4dc…
07-15 00:23:59	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x462736…
07-14 15:32:01	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	95	92¢	$87	0xd3a7a3…
07-14 13:21:04	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	73	82¢	$60	0xaafc4f…
07-14 13:19:26	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	65	91¢	$59	0xf7fbba…
07-14 13:04:02	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	16	90¢	$15	0x079a19…
07-14 12:38:01	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x9036e6…
07-14 12:32:07	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0x4ca9fe…
07-14 12:30:56	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	97	77¢	$75	0xd30451…
07-13 19:05:34	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0xe8e34c…
07-13 19:04:34	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xd93e2a…
07-13 11:25:01	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x8d99a4…
07-13 11:24:26	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x4dd59d…
07-13 11:23:44	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	89¢	$22	0xa72c8d…
07-13 03:33:55	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0xf80548…
07-13 03:19:46	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x5f3914…
07-11 17:11:59	Will the New York Yankees win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xed2861…
07-10 09:29:52	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	46	76¢	$35	0xc38ea9…
07-10 09:25:20	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x1d1fee…
07-10 08:54:52	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x9c679c…
07-10 08:52:56	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xa368c9…
07-10 08:30:17	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x32f66a…
07-09 03:10:58	Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	U 81.5	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x62f8fe…
07-09 03:10:53	Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	U 81.5	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x101639…
07-09 02:12:32	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xbb6bd1…
07-09 02:11:49	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xf157c9…
07-09 02:11:47	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x3ca588…
07-09 02:11:31	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6ea922…
07-09 02:10:47	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xba97e0…
07-09 02:10:46	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe8ce07…
07-09 02:10:31	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x1a5132…
07-09 02:10:22	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x922155…
07-09 02:10:22	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x283501…
07-09 02:10:11	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb27fe3…
07-08 13:09:17	Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	U 81.5	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x28f68f…
07-08 06:39:05	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0xbf2fe0…
07-08 03:44:41	Will the Chicago Cubs win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x3e1093…
07-08 03:42:11	Will the New York Yankees win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xa3c5db…
07-07 09:35:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	51	94¢	$48	0xae1a5c…
07-06 22:40:02	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x4a741a…
07-06 21:10:23	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026 618	No	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0x852664…
07-06 17:41:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x2adf3d…
07-06 17:41:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x24970f…
07-06 17:40:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	13	89¢	$12	0xdffb59…
07-06 17:38:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$7	0xa90ed8…
07-06 17:38:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xa40baa…
07-06 17:38:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0xff7b51…
07-05 22:55:53	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	23	71¢	$16	0xa4d698…
07-05 22:31:35	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	72	71¢	$51	0xa07cb5…
07-05 22:30:49	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x02f8f1…
07-05 22:30:17	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	94	69¢	$65	0x8e90ed…
07-05 22:30:08	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x05a64e…
07-05 22:17:23	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	70	66¢	$46	0x8f5fd3…
07-05 22:16:11	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	25	66¢	$17	0x915208…
07-05 16:53:43	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	85	71¢	$60	0x0f1628…
07-05 16:45:53	will amzn reach 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x46e638…
07-05 10:08:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	34	85¢	$29	0x5c1f7c…
07-05 01:40:16	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	89¢	$22	0x5db0cd…
07-04 20:58:31	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 2pt5	France	BUY	147	32¢	$47	0x4bdaf1…
07-04 18:10:25	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x83f07f…
07-04 17:51:07	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x22d672…
07-04 12:56:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0xed4c75…
07-03 07:50:22	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x04d9a9…
07-03 02:51:55	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xf073cb…
07-02 22:27:47	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xbe6c61…
07-02 22:27:38	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x3556dc…
07-02 22:27:34	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x2f72cb…
07-02 14:04:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x4920c2…
07-02 13:26:31	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0xd90c41…
07-02 12:58:50	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0x39e6b2…
07-02 12:48:59	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xed325e…
07-02 10:59:52	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xd14131…
07-02 10:16:10	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	43	44¢	$19	0xb80500…
07-02 09:56:19	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x1d92fb…
07-02 09:53:55	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x703c36…
07-01 17:51:05	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1,033	29¢	$300	0x2ee64f…
07-01 04:06:56	mlb sf ari 2026 06 30	Arizona Diamondbacks	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x326b08…