Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$4,157
Trades
157
Unique wallets
44
Liquidity
$2,927
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-10 17:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+3.0¢
(top1%: 11% YES on $75
vs crowd: 8% YES on $2.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $28 | $284 | $256 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 11 | $7 | $73 | $67 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $8 | $2.3K | $2.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $197 | — | +$197 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $9 | $66 | $58 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $2 | $107 | $106 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | $111 | $111 |
| Median | 3 | $9 | $15 | $6 |
| Below median | 9 | $79 | $48 | +$31 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $41 | — | +$41 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $3 | $5 | $3 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $18 | — | +$18 |
| unranked | 18 | $80 | $2.3K | $2.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +2,409 | $2,253 | $2,253 | 8 | 07-10 17:12 |
| Informal-Tensor 0x82a3…c11a | Yes | +1,173 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 06-30 16:01 |
| Rubbery-Artist 0xd24b…18ee | Yes | +937 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 07-01 13:19 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +400 | $32 | $32 | 12 | 06-27 16:07 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +216 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 07-02 16:51 |
| Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | +189 | $10 | $10 | 8 | 06-27 16:38 |
| Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | +127 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 07-02 16:51 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +114 | $107 | $107 | 2 | 07-01 13:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6d9…3a6e | Yes | +78 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-06 18:33 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +71 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 07-01 13:19 |
| Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-10 17:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x9af0…8143 | Yes | +43 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-21 19:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | +28 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-23 10:16 |
| Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | +22 | $1 | $5 | 4 | 07-10 00:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-04 17:17 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-14 20:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +6 | $5 | $23 | 3 | 06-27 15:31 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +5 | $3 | $218 | 12 | 07-05 23:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-27 18:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $4 | 2 | 06-21 19:22 |
| Feisty-Orientation 0xe9c1…e713 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-28 09:27 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 17:12:53 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 331 | 95¢ | $313 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:53 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 352 | 95¢ | $333 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:53 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 93 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 448 | 96¢ | $428 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 00:40:26 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2b2ad9… |
| 07-10 00:40:26 | Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2b2ad9… |
| 07-06 18:33:08 | (anonymous) 0xc6d9…3a6e | Yes | BUY | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x856b6a… |
| 07-06 18:33:08 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x856b6a… |
| 07-05 23:15:05 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x246998… |
| 07-05 23:15:05 | Miserable-Somewhere 0x7d8f…973b | Yes | SELL | 36 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x246998… |
| 07-04 17:17:14 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc2b406… |
| 07-04 17:17:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0xc2b406… |
| 07-04 17:17:14 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | Yes | SELL | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc2b406… |
| 07-02 16:51:16 | Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | BUY | 82 | 6¢ | $5 | 0xd27a92… |
| 07-02 16:51:16 | Imaginative-Lunchmeat 0x7391…a352 | Yes | SELL | 610 | 4¢ | $26 | 0xd27a92… |
| 07-02 16:51:16 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 393 | 4¢ | $16 | 0xd27a92… |
| 07-02 16:51:16 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 135 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xd27a92… |
| 07-02 00:53:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 14 | 94¢ | $13 | 0xac3ba3… |
| 07-02 00:53:19 | Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xac3ba3… |
| 07-02 00:51:13 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 81 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x1abd33… |
| 07-02 00:51:13 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x1abd33… |
| 07-02 00:51:13 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | SELL | 185 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x1abd33… |
| 07-02 00:51:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 13 | 94¢ | $13 | 0x1abd33… |
| 07-02 00:51:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x1abd33… |
| 07-01 17:19:16 | Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x4c7dc2… |
| 07-01 17:19:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 32 | 94¢ | $30 | 0x4c7dc2… |
| 07-01 13:19:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 113 | 94¢ | $106 | 0x404b2a… |
| 07-01 13:19:44 | Rubbery-Artist 0xd24b…18ee | Yes | BUY | 937 | 6¢ | $60 | 0x404b2a… |
| 07-01 13:19:44 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 681 | 94¢ | $637 | 0x404b2a… |
| 07-01 13:19:44 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 40 | 94¢ | $37 | 0x404b2a… |
| 07-01 13:19:44 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | BUY | 71 | 94¢ | $66 | 0x404b2a… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 49 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 968 | 94¢ | $910 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | Informal-Tensor 0x82a3…c11a | Yes | BUY | 1,173 | 6¢ | $70 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-30 16:01:05 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xcaf146… |
| 06-29 20:20:40 | Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | SELL | 18 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3f1393… |
| 06-29 20:20:40 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3f1393… |
| 06-29 20:20:40 | Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3f1393… |
| 06-29 12:42:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xbf3f1b… |
| 06-29 12:42:52 | (anonymous) 0x702e…ff44 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xbf3f1b… |
| 06-27 19:29:44 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9a6f03… |
| 06-27 19:29:44 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9a6f03… |
| 06-27 19:29:44 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9a6f03… |
| 06-27 19:29:44 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9a6f03… |
| 06-27 19:14:11 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x3b6ecf… |
| 06-27 19:14:11 | Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | BUY | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3b6ecf… |
| 06-27 19:14:11 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3b6ecf… |
| 06-27 18:58:59 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x5738ae… |
| 06-27 18:58:59 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 27 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x5738ae… |
| 06-27 18:44:32 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x053864… |
| 06-27 18:44:32 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x053864… |
| 06-27 18:44:32 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x053864… |
| 06-27 18:44:32 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 27 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x053864… |
| 06-27 18:27:37 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7925bd… |
| 06-27 18:27:37 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7925bd… |
| 06-27 18:10:23 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x85fc8e… |
| 06-27 18:10:23 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x85fc8e… |
| 06-27 17:54:22 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0f0039… |
| 06-27 17:54:22 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0f0039… |
| 06-27 17:37:58 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfc8b89… |
| 06-27 17:37:58 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfc8b89… |
| 06-27 17:22:29 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3850b2… |
| 06-27 17:22:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3850b2… |
| 06-27 17:06:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x29fb3d… |
| 06-27 17:06:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x29fb3d… |
| 06-27 16:52:23 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 24 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xce5c9a… |
| 06-27 16:52:23 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xce5c9a… |
| 06-27 16:52:23 | Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0xce5c9a… |
| 06-27 16:38:02 | Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | SELL | 2 | 97¢ | $2 | 0x9cb818… |
| 06-27 16:38:02 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9cb818… |
| 06-27 16:38:02 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9cb818… |
| 06-27 16:22:47 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 38 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3c1d3a… |
| 06-27 16:22:47 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3c1d3a… |
| 06-27 16:07:14 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x56ddde… |
| 06-27 16:07:14 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x56ddde… |
| 06-27 16:07:14 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x56ddde… |
| 06-27 16:01:32 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 81 | 7¢ | $6 | 0xf2cfdf… |
| 06-27 16:01:32 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 81 | 7¢ | $6 | 0xf2cfdf… |
| 06-27 15:55:23 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x441258… |
| 06-27 15:55:23 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | SELL | 39 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x441258… |
| 06-27 15:46:07 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x371ad0… |
| 06-27 15:46:07 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x371ad0… |
| 06-27 15:46:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x371ad0… |
| 06-27 15:31:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | SELL | 39 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xe252d8… |
| 06-27 15:31:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xe252d8… |
| 06-27 15:31:10 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | SELL | 9 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xe252d8… |
| 06-27 15:31:10 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xe252d8… |
| 06-27 15:20:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x5bb32e… |
| 06-27 15:20:22 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x5bb32e… |
| 06-27 15:20:22 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x5bb32e… |
| 06-27 15:20:20 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | BUY | 39 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xf0e4b1… |
| 06-27 15:20:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xf0e4b1… |
| 06-24 13:41:56 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 40 | 93¢ | $37 | 0x3081a5… |
| 06-24 13:41:56 | Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x3081a5… |
| 06-24 13:06:22 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 17 | 93¢ | $15 | 0x39e0e4… |