Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$6,987
Trades
243
Unique wallets
64
Liquidity
$2,927
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-05 17:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+10.1¢
(top1%: 18% YES on $81
vs crowd: 8% YES on $6.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $48 | $873 | $824 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $212 | $90 | +$122 |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $29 | $5.2K | $5.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 31 | $251 | $6 | +$246 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $15 | $66 | $52 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $16 | $247 | $231 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $201 | $200 | +$1 |
| Median | 8 | $23 | $52 | $28 |
| Below median | 12 | $98 | $48 | +$50 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $33 | $122 | $89 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $7 | $194 | $187 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $18 | $187 | $169 |
| unranked | 26 | $129 | $5.1K | $4.9K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +5,331 | $4,965 | $4,965 | 19 | 07-31 21:23 |
| Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | +2,735 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 07-31 21:23 |
| Rubbery-Artist 0xd24b…18ee | Yes | +937 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 07-01 13:19 |
| Giddy-Cod 0x72bd…2b64 | Yes | +400 | $32 | $32 | 12 | 06-27 16:07 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +385 | $10 | $19 | 5 | 08-04 07:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | +366 | $23 | $23 | 4 | 08-05 11:35 |
| Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | +189 | $10 | $10 | 8 | 06-27 16:38 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +186 | $172 | $172 | 1 | 08-03 18:03 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +173 | $160 | $160 | 4 | 08-05 11:35 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +172 | $8 | $20 | 9 | 08-05 09:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | +150 | $11 | $12 | 3 | 08-03 18:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b85…89d1 | Yes | +128 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-02 20:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | +127 | $122 | $122 | 2 | 08-05 09:08 |
| Zealous-Passage 0xfb74…ae29 | Yes | +127 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 07-02 16:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | +103 | $6 | $6 | 3 | 07-31 18:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | +80 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 08-04 12:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6d9…3a6e | Yes | +78 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-06 18:33 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +71 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 07-01 13:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +61 | $5 | $7 | 4 | 08-05 15:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xcc99…1cc4 | Yes | +55 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-04 07:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +54 | $1 | $3 | 6 | 08-02 12:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x9af0…8143 | Yes | +43 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-21 19:22 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +33 | $29 | $371 | 22 | 08-05 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +33 | $1 | $5 | 3 | 08-02 12:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x5e7f…7bfd | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-30 00:29 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +24 | $22 | $22 | 4 | 08-02 20:56 |
| Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | +22 | $1 | $5 | 4 | 07-10 00:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xccb3…c2e4 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-27 17:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +6 | $5 | $23 | 3 | 06-27 15:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-20 01:42 |
| Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-01 09:50 |
| Feisty-Orientation 0xe9c1…e713 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-28 09:27 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 17:16:48 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x269602… |
| 08-05 17:16:48 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x269602… |
| 08-05 15:09:09 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x71a333… |
| 08-05 15:09:09 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 10 | 90¢ | $9 | 0x71a333… |
| 08-05 11:35:12 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0x778566… |
| 08-05 11:35:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 45 | 90¢ | $41 | 0x778566… |
| 08-05 09:08:29 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 64 | 96¢ | $61 | 0xc6d294… |
| 08-05 09:08:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc6d294… |
| 08-05 09:08:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x17e5f2… |
| 08-05 09:08:27 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 63 | 96¢ | $61 | 0x17e5f2… |
| 08-04 12:53:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x1bb86f… |
| 08-04 12:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x1bb86f… |
| 08-04 11:25:21 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x9905dc… |
| 08-04 11:25:21 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 14 | 87¢ | $12 | 0xa1bc12… |
| 08-04 11:25:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 14 | 87¢ | $12 | 0xa1bc12… |
| 08-04 11:25:21 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x9905dc… |
| 08-04 09:21:09 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x855ae1… |
| 08-04 09:21:09 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x855ae1… |
| 08-04 07:13:35 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 4 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x9f90e5… |
| 08-04 07:13:35 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 29 | 81¢ | $23 | 0x9f90e5… |
| 08-04 07:13:35 | (anonymous) 0xcc99…1cc4 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 18¢ | $10 | 0x9f90e5… |
| 08-04 07:13:35 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | SELL | 22 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x9f90e5… |
| 08-03 18:03:06 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 36 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x15dd19… |
| 08-03 18:03:06 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 186 | 92¢ | $172 | 0x15dd19… |
| 08-03 18:03:06 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 8¢ | $12 | 0x15dd19… |
| 08-03 13:25:20 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 32 | 9¢ | $3 | 0x10c5fd… |
| 08-03 13:25:20 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | BUY | 95 | 91¢ | $87 | 0x10c5fd… |
| 08-03 13:25:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x10c5fd… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | SELL | 6 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 40 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 20:56:12 | (anonymous) 0x9b85…89d1 | Yes | BUY | 128 | 8¢ | $10 | 0x33bae6… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 200 | 3¢ | $6 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 120 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | SELL | 492 | 97¢ | $478 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 179 | 95¢ | $170 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Informal-Tensor 0x82a3…c11a | Yes | SELL | 1,173 | 4¢ | $42 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-02 12:13:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0x6667c5… |
| 08-01 16:31:45 | (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | BUY | 60 | 94¢ | $56 | 0x1ecd7f… |
| 08-01 16:31:45 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x1ecd7f… |
| 08-01 16:31:45 | Broken-Opposite 0x26cb…3e56 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x1ecd7f… |
| 08-01 16:31:45 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x1ecd7f… |
| 08-01 09:50:32 | Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x1b6ce5… |
| 08-01 09:50:32 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x1b6ce5… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $187 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 502 | 91¢ | $457 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 2,735 | 7¢ | $200 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 18 | 94¢ | $17 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 21:23:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xe84cc4… |
| 07-31 18:17:11 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x1d383a… |
| 07-31 18:17:11 | (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x1d383a… |
| 07-31 18:17:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 12 | 94¢ | $11 | 0x1d383a… |
| 07-30 13:44:21 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x6c4f80… |
| 07-30 13:44:21 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x6c4f80… |
| 07-30 13:44:21 | Violent-Signature 0xe9fb…dbd0 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x6c4f80… |
| 07-30 00:29:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xa82954… |
| 07-30 00:29:24 | (anonymous) 0x5e7f…7bfd | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xa82954… |
| 07-29 09:01:35 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 200 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x1c408d… |
| 07-29 09:01:35 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x1c408d… |
| 07-28 15:50:37 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x6fae59… |
| 07-28 15:50:37 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x6fae59… |
| 07-28 14:45:52 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 101 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xa8aa27… |
| 07-28 14:45:52 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 101 | 95¢ | $96 | 0xa8aa27… |
| 07-28 14:41:47 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xa0cc09… |
| 07-28 14:41:47 | (anonymous) 0xaafe…6edb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xa0cc09… |
| 07-27 17:02:09 | (anonymous) 0xccb3…c2e4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x51811c… |
| 07-27 17:02:09 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x51811c… |
| 07-23 08:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 28 | 95¢ | $27 | 0x501dd9… |
| 07-23 08:59:49 | (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x501dd9… |
| 07-23 08:59:49 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x501dd9… |
| 07-21 05:48:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $6 | 0xcc6a39… |
| 07-21 05:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcc6a39… |
| 07-21 05:48:31 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcc6a39… |
| 07-20 01:42:43 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xbb2b1e… |
| 07-20 01:42:43 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbb2b1e… |
| 07-20 01:42:43 | Violent-Signature 0xe9fb…dbd0 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xbb2b1e… |
| 07-20 01:42:43 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xbb2b1e… |
| 07-20 01:42:43 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbb2b1e… |
| 07-10 17:12:53 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:53 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 352 | 95¢ | $333 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:53 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 331 | 95¢ | $313 | 0x8cc33f… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 448 | 96¢ | $428 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 17:12:44 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 93 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x97c7bf… |
| 07-10 00:40:26 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2b2ad9… |
| 07-10 00:40:26 | Easy-Going-Garlic 0x4563…ddd1 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2b2ad9… |
| 07-06 18:33:08 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x856b6a… |
| 07-06 18:33:08 | (anonymous) 0xc6d9…3a6e | Yes | BUY | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x856b6a… |
| 07-05 23:15:05 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x246998… |
| 07-05 23:15:05 | Miserable-Somewhere 0x7d8f…973b | Yes | SELL | 36 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x246998… |
| 07-04 17:17:14 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc2b406… |