Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$772

Unrealized P&L

+$184

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

1,682

Trades

10,033

lifetime

Volume

$26.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$418

30 positions

First seen

2026-06-21

last 11-13 05:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 136 days

Categories

Other

69% 35% -$436

Politics

13% 41% -$99

Sports

10% 56% -$115

Crypto

5% 32% -$55

Tech

3% 32% -$69

Pop-Culture

0% 33% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No		+40	$9	58¢	$23	+$14	11-12 02:02
Will Puka Nacua have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes		+70	$18	31¢	$22	+$4	11-09 23:04
Will Jake Ferguson have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No		+40	$5	48¢	$19	+$15	11-08 18:44
Will C.J. Stroud have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No		+40	$17	43¢	$17	+$0	11-09 11:03
Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027?	Yes		+40	$7	40¢	$16	+$9	11-11 11:55
Will Bucky Irving finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes		+40	$6	40¢	$16	+$10	11-08 11:31
Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?	Yes		+40	$8	40¢	$16	+$8	11-07 19:07
Will edgeX reach $1.00 before 2027?	Yes		+86	$8	18¢	$15	+$7	11-06 15:45
Will Puka Nacua have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes		+40	$5	38¢	$15	+$10	11-09 23:02
Will Michael Wilson have 724.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes		+80	$6	19¢	$15	+$8	11-09 21:34
Will Thug Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?	Yes		+29	$9	50¢	$14	+$6	11-09 15:52
Will Deportivo Moquegua be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Yes		+40	$5	36¢	$14	+$10	11-12 16:53
Will Puka Nacua have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No		+35	$7	40¢	$14	+$7	11-12 10:50
Will Hadash support the new Israeli government in the vote of confidence?	Yes		+40	$7	34¢	$14	+$7	11-11 05:43
Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?	No	—	+31	-$10	44¢	$13	+$23	11-13 05:39
Will the Democrats win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No		+37	$6	36¢	$13	+$7	11-11 07:08
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No		+40	$8	33¢	$13	+$6	11-11 15:30
Will Will Anderson Jr. have 15+ sacks in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No		+40	$14	33¢	$13	-$1	11-08 23:24
Will Jonathan Truong qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?	Yes		+70	$16	18¢	$13	-$3	11-09 15:41
Will CASHCAT reach $0.25 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+36	$5	35¢	$13	+$8	11-10 15:50
Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes		+40	$10	30¢	$12	+$3	11-10 17:15
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+40	$5	29¢	$12	+$6	11-12 05:39
Will Bayer Leverkusen score the most goals in the UEL league phase?	Yes		+70	$12	16¢	$12	-$1	11-05 23:14
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?	Yes		+40	$12	29¢	$11	-$1	11-08 08:40
Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	No		+75	$10	15¢	$11	+$1	11-12 05:31
Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	No		+40	$5	27¢	$11	+$6	11-12 17:56
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	Yes		+40	$7	26¢	$10	+$3	11-04 06:29
Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	—	+35	$1	29¢	$10	+$9	11-13 06:17
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No		+30	$6	34¢	$10	+$4	11-13 01:07
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US not enter a recession by the end of 2027?	No		+40	$9	24¢	$10	+$0	11-10 11:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	22	$157	293	257	+36	No	+$46	10-29 13:48
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026?	20	$105	205	205	+0	open	—	09-23 12:12
Will a North American team reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	11	$105	192	112	+80	Yes	+$41	10-31 21:37
Will LYON Reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	7	$101	140	100	+40	Yes	+$57	10-31 21:37
Will Elias Pettersson record 100+ points?	4	$87	80	80	+0	open	—	10-31 00:19
Will Karmine Corp Reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	9	$85	180	100	+80	Yes	+$27	10-31 18:28
israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	23	$79	140	140	+0	No	+$14	07-12 11:14
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	29	$78	240	240	+0	No	+$12	07-12 11:14
Will Jordan win Group B at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	4	$78	100	91	+9	open	—	11-04 02:28
Will zekken play for NRG in 2027?	3	$75	69	69	+0	open	—	11-02 16:23
Will Dylan Larkin record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	10	$75	160	120	+40	open	—	10-31 16:35
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	9	$75	90	90	+0	open	—	07-02 14:05
Will Yui Hasegawa finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	10	$74	140	70	+70	No	+$25	10-26 16:58
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?	11	$74	86	80	+6	open	—	11-05 11:51
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	7	$74	45	45	+0	Yes	+$3	06-28 23:09
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	12	$70	210	170	+40	Yes	+$17	11-09 00:41
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	12	$68	200	160	+40	No	+$23	10-28 19:15
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota in 2026?	7	$68	110	90	+20	open	—	11-10 08:03
Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch?	5	$67	35	35	+0	open	—	07-11 06:41
will russia enter stinky by july 31	47	$65	124	123	+0	No	-$12	07-11 06:41
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	13	$65	75	75	+0	open	—	09-27 15:51
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	9	$64	140	100	+40	Yes	+$4	10-28 12:59
will russia enter pokrovskoe by december 31 2026	6	$64	57	57	+0	open	—	07-08 00:25
Will Angela Murray come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?	7	$62	100	70	+30	No	+$27	09-01 06:23
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	20	$62	155	155	+0	open	—	06-29 00:56
Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?	8	$61	100	60	+40	open	—	11-06 19:32
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	6	$60	50	50	+0	No	+$9	06-25 12:58
Will Mirana Be the Most Picked Hero at The International 2026?	6	$58	60	60	+0	Yes	+$35	08-23 12:21
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	13	$58	130	60	+70	Yes	+$13	10-24 21:28
Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	9	$58	78	78	+0	No	+$38	11-07 04:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 06:45:04	2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xf6663f…
11-13 06:38:21	Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next permanent manager of Manchester United?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x6985af…
11-13 06:17:42	Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x4c5998…
11-13 05:39:00	Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	25¢	$8	0xca61be…
11-13 05:23:13	Will Baylor have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x36ffdd…
11-13 05:23:12	Will Baylor have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x2d90f6…
11-13 04:52:25	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x61dc23…
11-13 04:52:24	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x615930…
11-13 04:52:10	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xc6e079…
11-13 04:52:10	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x6e7154…
11-13 04:43:42	Will ADT be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x302098…
11-13 04:31:33	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x288cf5…
11-13 04:31:31	Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x042348…
11-13 04:05:06	Another Codex outage in 2026?	No	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0xea73b8…
11-13 04:03:09	Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5627d9…
11-13 04:02:25	Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xfc3c98…
11-13 03:38:57	Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x42017d…
11-13 03:25:12	Boston Celtics 2026-27 Regular Season Wins: O/U 50.5	U 50.5	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x50c2ac…
11-13 03:23:46	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x73cb9c…
11-13 03:23:31	Will global temperature increase by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xef5e28…
11-13 03:23:31	Will global temperature increase by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x9a8d2e…
11-13 03:23:03	Boston Celtics 2026-27 Regular Season Wins: O/U 50.5	U 50.5	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x0594b1…
11-13 03:19:51	Will Cerro be relegated from the 2026 Uruguayan Primera División?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xf000ff…
11-13 03:18:34	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xb83286…
11-13 03:08:07	Will Jayden Daniels have 15.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x99f174…
11-13 02:18:45	Will BNB dip to $650 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x841eb3…
11-13 01:52:12	Will Mauricio Pochettino leave the USMNT before the 2027 Gold Cup?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x3ffe7f…
11-13 01:49:43	Will The Devil Wears Prada 2 rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	24¢	$10	0x6b3fea…
11-13 01:45:33	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4e70fe…
11-13 01:42:21	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x487006…
11-13 01:29:54	Social Security insolvent by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x40063c…
11-13 01:07:10	Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x7d5fec…
11-12 23:43:21	Will Gilberto Mora play for Real Madrid next?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xe31d09…
11-12 23:34:04	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x46fba0…
11-12 23:33:12	Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x3aabae…
11-12 23:00:27	Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xeeaffc…
11-12 21:23:49	Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in November?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x184dbb…
11-12 21:20:49	Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x2a277a…
11-12 21:04:43	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xeb45ca…
11-12 20:49:16	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xf5a731…
11-12 20:49:16	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xba6796…
11-12 20:49:16	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x379ab2…
11-12 20:46:39	Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xfd5f15…
11-12 20:44:30	Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x636c7a…
11-12 20:29:04	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x754aeb…
11-12 20:27:25	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x2b5f91…
11-12 20:25:03	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x55a71c…
11-12 20:20:54	Will NewJeans release a song in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0x2abf5e…
11-12 20:14:40	Will Albion be relegated from the 2026 Uruguayan Primera División?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x155002…
11-12 20:09:33	Will AI solve the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8c54be…
11-12 20:07:28	Will Vox receive less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x6d7288…
11-12 19:58:04	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9c3440…
11-12 19:41:15	Will Dota 2 average more Steam players in November than in October?	No	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x2ff09b…
11-12 19:25:57	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0070 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0c6c27…
11-12 19:09:58	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xf7462a…
11-12 19:01:42	Will PDC win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0xfe829b…
11-12 18:52:34	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x898cd4…
11-12 18:48:12	Will Alice Huang be federally charged by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x2345eb…
11-12 18:40:10	Will Hugo Lloris win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xabca26…
11-12 18:37:34	Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xceea31…
11-12 18:34:31	Will Hong Kong have between 10-25mm of precipitation in November?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x2a319a…
11-12 18:29:37	Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x366f79…
11-12 18:27:28	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf0628f…
11-12 18:25:40	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 40% or higher?	No	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0xa8d024…
11-12 18:25:40	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 40% or higher?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x711ff3…
11-12 18:24:00	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026?	No	BUY	40	14¢	$6	0x7b7322…
11-12 18:21:39	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xb4da37…
11-12 18:15:30	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x1724cc…
11-12 18:06:22	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x6bc970…
11-12 18:03:13	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x70167b…
11-12 18:03:12	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xfbebba…
11-12 18:03:10	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xa9ae87…
11-12 18:00:19	Dota 2 patch 7.42 released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	9	39¢	$4	0x948fff…
11-12 17:58:58	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe4bfc8…
11-12 17:56:04	Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xcf0e1c…
11-12 17:38:21	Will Konyaspor be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xf5f7c7…
11-12 17:27:40	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	No	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xeaab1f…
11-12 16:55:33	Will Wagner Moura rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x40bb52…
11-12 16:55:00	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x6c84a4…
11-12 16:53:43	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	No	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x9dd4e6…
11-12 16:53:00	Will Deportivo Moquegua be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xe4cade…
11-12 16:48:19	Will ADT be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x036ddf…
11-12 16:47:15	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x82f496…
11-12 16:45:03	Will Manta be relegated from the 2026 LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador)?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xd13deb…
11-12 16:26:27	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x42e9a2…
11-12 14:56:28	Will BNB dip to $650 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd7a1bf…
11-12 14:44:57	Will GV San José be relegated from the 2026 Bolivia LFPB?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xfa3abe…
11-12 14:14:33	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0xa16032…
11-12 14:03:49	Will Shohei Ohtani attend Super Bowl LXI?	Yes	BUY	15	15¢	$2	0x343f78…
11-12 13:59:09	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xb3e5b9…
11-12 13:58:31	Will Glider launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0xa344c6…
11-12 13:51:10	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xebfbe2…
11-12 13:00:06	Hotstuff FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x376140…
11-12 12:32:51	Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x6f79cd…
11-12 12:00:00	Harris's Democratic nomination odds hit 10% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xc15145…
11-12 11:49:28	Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x734dc2…
11-12 11:46:48	Will Jordan Mason have 449.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xb0870f…
11-12 11:46:33	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x9a7d42…
11-12 11:44:57	Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next permanent manager of Manchester United?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xe32bbd…
11-12 11:16:55	Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xcb08f3…