Realized P&L
-$21
Unrealized P&L
-$156
Hit rate
81.1%
Resolved
31
Trades
11,110
lifetime
Volume
$673.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$61
Open exposure
$2.68K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-28
last 06-30 12:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Other
53% 62% +$2
Politics
35% 29% $-3
Sports
5% 57% $-26
Tech
5%
Crypto
1% 75% +$6
Pop-Culture
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 191 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -600 $-564 96¢ $-575 $-11 06-16 12:00
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +600 $554 94¢ $562 +$8 06-25 12:00
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +600 $349 44¢ $267 $-82 06-18 13:41
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes -150 $-107 90¢ $-135 $-28 06-28 00:00
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes +100 $96 94¢ $94 $-3 06-30 13:25
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +75 $73 99¢ $74 +$1 06-29 13:33
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +75 $73 98¢ $73 +$0 06-30 15:22
Will Travis Scott perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +75 $72 98¢ $73 +$1 06-29 23:36
Will Nicki Minaj perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +75 $72 97¢ $73 +$1 06-29 23:24
Will Billie Eilish perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +75 $73 97¢ $73 $-0 06-30 10:28
Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +75 $71 93¢ $70 $-1 06-29 23:52
Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No +75 $70 92¢ $69 $-1 06-29 22:53
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -54 $-51 95¢ $-51 $-0 06-30 03:00
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +200 $50 26¢ $51 +$1 06-30 16:18
Will Alberta join the US? No -50 $-48 98¢ $-49 $-1 05-29 00:00
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +55 $54 88¢ $48 $-6 06-15 17:14
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No +50 $48 95¢ $47 $-0 06-25 22:17
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +55 $48 86¢ $47 $-1 06-30 14:19
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes +50 $51 83¢ $41 $-9 06-24 12:00
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No -40 $-35 100¢ $-40 $-5 05-29 00:00
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +26 $23 86¢ $23 $-1 06-30 15:52
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No +22 $19 90¢ $20 +$1 06-01 00:08
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $36 38¢ $19 $-17 06-23 17:28
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? No -22 $-20 85¢ $-19 +$1 06-22 00:00
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? No -20 $-18 92¢ $-18 $-0 06-27 12:00
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch? No -20 $-16 92¢ $-18 $-2 06-17 12:00
Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -20 $-14 80¢ $-16 $-2 06-17 00:00
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No +20 $16 72¢ $14 $-1 06-29 15:18
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +30 $10 30¢ $9 $-1 06-30 03:18
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Yes +30 $8 30¢ $9 +$1 06-29 06:49